World food trends and prospects to 2025

This paper reviews food (especially cereal) production trends and prospects for the world and its main regions. Despite fears to the contrary, in recent years we have seen continued progress toward better methods of feeding humanity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the sole major exception. Looking to the future, this paper argues that the continuation of recent cereal yield trends should be sufficient to cope with most of the demographically driven expansion of cereal demand that will occur until the year 2025. However, because of an increasing degree of mismatch between the expansion of regional demand and the potential for supply, there will be a major expansion of world cereal (and noncereal food) trade. Other consequences for global agriculture arising from demographic growth include the need to use water much more efficiently and an even greater dependence on nitrogen fertilizers (e.g., South Asia). Farming everywhere will depend more on information-intensive agricultural management procedures. Moreover, despite continued general progress, there still will be a significant number of undernourished people in 2025. Signs of heightened harvest variability, especially in North America, are of serious concern. Thus, although future general food trends are likely to be positive, in some respects we also could be entering a more volatile world.

Myc and Max: molecular evolution of a family of proto-oncogene products and their dimerization partner.

The myc gene family encodes a group of transcription factors that regulate cell proliferation and differentiation. These genes are widely studied because of their importance as proto-oncogenes. Phylogenetic analyses are described here for 45 Myc protein sequences representing c-, N-, L-, S-, and B-myc genes. A gene duplication early in vertebrate evolution produced the c-myc lineage and another lineage that later gave rise to the N- and L-myc lineages by another gene duplication. Evolutionary divergence in the myc gene family corresponds closely to the known branching order of the major vertebrate groups. The patterns of sequence evolution are described for five separate highly conserved regions, and these analyses show that differential rates of sequence divergence (= mosaic evolution) have occurred among conserved motifs. Further, the closely related dimerization partner protein Max exhibits significantly less sequence variability than Myc. It is suggested that the reduced variability in max stems from natural selection acting to preserve dimerization capability with products of myc and related genes.

Extraordinarily high spider densities on islands: flow of energy from the marine to terrestrial food webs and the absence of predation.

Some islands in the Gulf of California support very high densities of spiders. Spider density is negatively correlated with island size; many small islands support 50-200 spiders per m3 of cactus. Energy for these spiders comes primarily from the ocean and not from in situ productivity by land plants. We explicitly connect the marine and terrestrial systems to show that insular food webs represent one endpoint of the marine web. We describe two conduits for marine energy entering these islands: shore drift and seabird colonies. Both conduits are related to island area, having a much stronger effect on smaller islands. This asymmetric effect helps to explain the exceptionally high spider densities on small islands. Although productivity sets the maximal potential densities, predation (by scorpions) limits realized spider abundance. Thus, prey availability and predation act in concert to set insular spider abundance.