A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California.

Predictions of earthquakes that are based on observations of precursory seismicity cannot depend on the average properties of the seismicity, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. Instead it must depend on the fluctuations in seismicity. We summarize the observational data of the fluctuations of seismicity in space, in time, and in a coupled space-time regime over the past 60 yr in Southern California, to provide a basis for determining whether these fluctuations are correlated with the times and locations of future strong earthquakes in an appropriate time- and space-scale. The simple extrapolation of the G-R distribution must lead to an overestimate of the risk due to large earthquakes. There may be two classes of earthquakes: the small earthquakes that satisfy the G-R law and the larger and large ones. Most observations of fluctuations of seismicity are of the rate of occurrence of smaller earthquakes. Large earthquakes are observed to be preceded by significant quiescence on the faults on which they occur and by an intensification of activity at distance. It is likely that the fluctuations are due to the nature of fractures on individual faults of the network of faults. There are significant inhomogeneities on these faults, which we assume will have an important influence on the nature of self-organization of seismicity. The principal source of the inhomogeneity on the large scale is the influence of geometry--i.e., of the nonplanarity of faults and the system of faults.

The old problems of glass and the glass transition, and the many new twists.

In this paper I review the ways in which the glassy state is obtained both in nature and in materials science and highlight a "new twist"--the recent recognition of polymorphism within the glassy state. The formation of glass by continuous cooling (viscous slowdown) is then examined, the strong/fragile liquids classification is reviewed, and a new twist-the possibility that the slowdown is a result of an avoided critical point-is noted. The three canonical characteristics of relaxing liquids are correlated through the fragility. As a further new twist, the conversion of strong liquids to fragile liquids by pressure-induced coordination number increases is demonstrated. It is then shown that, for comparable systems, it is possible to have the same conversion accomplished via a first-order transition within the liquid state during quenching. This occurs in the systems in which "polyamorphism" (polymorphism in the glassy state) is observed, and the whole phenomenology is accounted for by Poole's bond-modified van der Waals model. The sudden loss of some liquid degrees of freedom through such weak first-order transitions is then related to the polyamorphic transition between native and denatured hydrated proteins, since the latter are also glass-forming systems--water-plasticized, hydrogen bond-cross-linked chain polymers (and single molecule glass formers). The circle is closed with a final new twist by noting that a short time scale phenomenon much studied by protein physicists-namely, the onset of a sharp change in d/dT ( is the Debye-Waller factor)--is general for glass-forming liquids, including computer-simulated strong and fragile ionic liquids, and is closely correlated with the experimental glass transition temperature. The latter thus originates in strong anharmonicity in certain components of the vibrational density of states, which permits the system to access the multiple minima of its configuration space. The connection between the anharmonicity in these modes, vibrational localization, the Kauzmann temperature, and the fragility of the liquid is proposed as the key problem in glass science.