Mantle dynamics and seismic tomography

Three-dimensional imaging of the Earth's interior, called seismic tomography, has achieved breakthrough advances in the last two decades, revealing fundamental geodynamical processes throughout the Earth's mantle and core. Convective circulation of the entire mantle is taking place, with subducted oceanic lithosphere sinking into the lower mantle, overcoming the resistance to penetration provided by the phase boundary near 650-km depth that separates the upper and lower mantle. The boundary layer at the base of the mantle has been revealed to have complex structure, involving local stratification, extensive structural anisotropy, and massive regions of partial melt. The Earth's high Rayleigh number convective regime now is recognized to be much more interesting and complex than suggested by textbook cartoons, and continued advances in seismic tomography, geodynamical modeling, and high-pressure–high-temperature mineral physics will be needed to fully quantify the complex dynamics of our planet's interior.

Illite and hydrocarbon exploration

Illite is a general term for the dioctahedral mica-like clay mineral common in sedimentary rocks, especially shales. Illite is of interest to the petroleum industry because it can provide a K-Ar isotope date that constrains the timing of basin heating events. It is critical to establish that hydrocarbon formation and migration occurred after the formation of the trap (anticline, etc.) that is to hold the oil. Illite also may precipitate in the pores of sandstone reservoirs, impeding fluid flow. Illite in shales is a mixture of detrital mica and its weathering products with diagenetic illite formed by reaction with pore fluids during burial. K-Ar ages are apparent ages of mixtures of detrital and diagenetic end members, and what we need are the ages of the end members themselves. This paper describes a methodology, based on mineralogy and crystallography, for interpreting the K-Ar ages from illites in sedimentary rocks and for estimating the ages of the end members.

Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity.

Polyploid formation created unique avenues for response to selection in Gossypium (cotton)

A detailed restriction fragment length polymorphism map was used to determine the chromosomal locations and subgenomic distributions of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) segregating in a cross between cultivars of allotetraploid (AADD) Gossypium hirsutum (“Upland” cotton) and Gossypium barbadense (“Sea Island,” “Pima,” or “Egyptian” cotton) that differ markedly in the quality and quantity of seed epidermal fibers. Most QTLs influencing fiber quality and yield are located on the “D” subgenome, derived from an ancestor that does not produce spinnable fibers. D subgenome QTLs may partly account for the fact that domestication and breeding of tetraploid cottons has resulted in fiber yield and quality levels superior to those achieved by parallel improvement of “A” genome diploid cottons. The merger of two genomes with different evolutionary histories in a common nucleus appears to offer unique avenues for phenotypic response to selection. This may partly compensate for reduction in quantitative variation associated with polyploid formation and be one basis for the prominence of polyploids among extant angiosperms. These findings impel molecular dissection of the roles of divergent subgenomes in quantitative inheritance in many other polyploids and further exploration of both “synthetic” polyploids and exotic diploid genotypes for agriculturally useful variation.

Variant antigenic peptide promotes cytotoxic T lymphocyte adhesion to target cells without cytotoxicity

Timelapse video microscopy has been used to record the motility and dynamic interactions between an H-2Db-restricted murine cytotoxic T lymphocyte clone (F5) and Db-transfected L929 mouse fibroblasts (LDb) presenting normal or variant antigenic peptides from human influenza nucleoprotein. F5 cells will kill LDb target cells presenting specific antigen (peptide NP68: ASNENMDAM) after “browsing” their surfaces for between 8 min and many hours. Cell death is characterized by abrupt cellular rounding followed by zeiosis (vigorous “boiling” of the cytoplasm and blebbing of the plasma membrane) for 10–20 min, with subsequent cessation of all activity. Departure of cytotoxic T lymphocytes from unkilled target cells is rare, whereas serial killing is sometimes observed. In the absence of antigenic peptide, cytotoxic T lymphocytes browse target cells for much shorter periods, and readily leave to encounter other targets, while never causing target cell death. Two variant antigenic peptides, differing in nonamer position 7 or 8, also act as antigens, albeit with lower efficiency. A third variant peptide NP34 (ASNENMETM), which differs from NP68 in both positions and yet still binds Db, does not stimulate F5 cytotoxicity. Nevertheless, timelapse video analysis shows that NP34 leads to a significant modification of cell behavior, by up-regulating F5–LDb adhesive interactions. These data extend recent studies showing that partial agonists may elicit a subset of the T cell responses associated with full antigen stimulation, by demonstrating that TCR interaction with variant peptide antigens can trigger target cell adhesion and surface exploration without activating the signaling pathway that results in cytotoxicity.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.