The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?

The effect of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze from air pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat grown in China is assessed. The assessment is based on estimates of aerosol optical depths over China, the effect of these optical depths on the solar irradiance reaching the earth’s surface, and the response of rice and winter wheat grown in Nanjing to the change in solar irradiance. Two sets of aerosol optical depths are presented: one based on a coupled, regional climate/air quality model simulation and the other inferred from solar radiation measurements made over a 12-year period at meteorological stations in China. The model-estimated optical depths are significantly smaller than those derived from observations, perhaps because of errors in one or both sets of optical depths or because the data from the meteorological stations has been affected by local pollution. Radiative transfer calculations using the smaller, model-estimated aerosol optical depths indicate that the so-called “direct effect” of regional haze results in an ≈5–30% reduction in the solar irradiance reaching some of China’s most productive agricultural regions. Crop-response model simulations suggest an ≈1:1 relationship between a percentage increase (decrease) in total surface solar irradiance and a percentage increase (decrease) in the yields of rice and wheat. Collectively, these calculations suggest that regional haze in China is currently depressing optimal yields of ≈70% of the crops grown in China by at least 5–30%. Reducing the severity of regional haze in China through air pollution control could potentially result in a significant increase in crop yields and help the nation meet its growing food demands in the coming decades.

Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts

We use residual-delay maps of observational field data for barometric pressure to demonstrate the structure of latitudinal gradients in nonlinearity in the atmosphere. Nonlinearity is weak and largely lacking in tropical and subtropical sites and increases rapidly into the temperate regions where the time series also appear to be much noisier. The degree of nonlinearity closely follows the meridional variation of midlatitude storm track frequency. We extract the specific functional form of this nonlinearity, a V shape in the lagged residuals that appears to be a basic feature of midlatitude synoptic weather systems associated with frontal passages. We present evidence that this form arises from the relative time scales of high-pressure versus low-pressure events. Finally, we show that this nonlinear feature is weaker in a well regarded numerical forecast model (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts) because small-scale temporal and spatial variation is smoothed out in the grided inputs. This is significant, in that it allows us to demonstrate how application of statistical corrections based on the residual-delay map may provide marked increases in local forecast accuracy, especially for severe weather systems.

Atmospheric energy for subsurface life on Mars?

The location and density of biologically useful energy sources on Mars will limit the biomass, spatial distribution, and organism size of any biota. Subsurface Martian organisms could be supplied with a large energy flux from the oxidation of photochemically produced atmospheric H2 and CO diffusing into the regolith. However, surface abundance measurements of these gases demonstrate that no more than a few percent of this available flux is actually being consumed, suggesting that biological activity driven by atmospheric H2 and CO is limited in the top few hundred meters of the subsurface. This is significant because the available but unused energy is extremely large: for organisms at 30-m depth, it is 2,000 times previous estimates of hydrothermal and chemical weathering energy and far exceeds the energy derivable from other atmospheric gases. This also implies that the apparent scarcity of life on Mars is not attributable to lack of energy. Instead, the availability of liquid water may be a more important factor limiting biological activity because the photochemical energy flux can only penetrate to 100- to 1,000-m depth, where most H2O is probably frozen. Because both atmospheric and Viking lander soil data provide little evidence for biological activity, the detection of short-lived trace gases will probably be a better indicator of any extant Martian life.

The origin of atmospheric oxygen on Earth: The innovation of oxygenic photosynthesis

The evolution of O2-producing cyanobacteria that use water as terminal reductant transformed Earth's atmosphere to one suitable for the evolution of aerobic metabolism and complex life. The innovation of water oxidation freed photosynthesis to invade new environments and visibly changed the face of the Earth. We offer a new hypothesis for how this process evolved, which identifies two critical roles for carbon dioxide in the Archean period. First, we present a thermodynamic analysis showing that bicarbonate (formed by dissolution of CO2) is a more efficient alternative substrate than water for O2 production by oxygenic phototrophs. This analysis clarifies the origin of the long debated “bicarbonate effect” on photosynthetic O2 production. We propose that bicarbonate was the thermodynamically preferred reductant before water in the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis. Second, we have examined the speciation of manganese(II) and bicarbonate in water, and find that they form Mn-bicarbonate clusters as the major species under conditions that model the chemistry of the Archean sea. These clusters have been found to be highly efficient precursors for the assembly of the tetramanganese-oxide core of the water-oxidizing enzyme during biogenesis. We show that these clusters can be oxidized at electrochemical potentials that are accessible to anoxygenic phototrophs and thus the most likely building blocks for assembly of the first O2 evolving photoreaction center, most likely originating from green nonsulfur bacteria before the evolution of cyanobacteria.

Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on leaf dark respiration of Xanthium strumarium in light and in darkness

Leaf dark respiration (R) is an important component of plant carbon balance, but the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on leaf R during illumination are largely unknown. We studied the effects of elevated CO2 on leaf R in light (RL) and in darkness (RD) in Xanthium strumarium at different developmental stages. Leaf RL was estimated by using the Kok method, whereas leaf RD was measured as the rate of CO2 efflux at zero light. Leaf RL and RD were significantly higher at elevated than at ambient CO2 throughout the growing period. Elevated CO2 increased the ratio of leaf RL to net photosynthesis at saturated light (Amax) when plants were young and also after flowering, but the ratio of leaf RD to Amax was unaffected by CO2 levels. Leaf RN was significantly higher at the beginning but significantly lower at the end of the growing period in elevated CO2-grown plants. The ratio of leaf RL to RD was used to estimate the effect of light on leaf R during the day. We found that light inhibited leaf R at both CO2 concentrations but to a lesser degree for elevated (17–24%) than for ambient (29–35%) CO2-grown plants, presumably because elevated CO2-grown plants had a higher demand for energy and carbon skeletons than ambient CO2-grown plants in light. Our results suggest that using the CO2 efflux rate, determined by shading leaves during the day, as a measure for leaf R is likely to underestimate carbon loss from elevated CO2-grown plants.

Paleoclimate and Amerindians: Evidence from stable isotopes and atmospheric circulation

Two Amerindian demographic shifts are attributed to climate change in the northwest plains of North America: at ≈11,000 calendar years before present (yr BP), Amerindian culture apparently split into foothills–mountains vs. plains biomes; and from 8,000–5,000 yr BP, scarce archaeological sites on the open plains suggest emigration during xeric “Altithermal” conditions. We reconstructed paleoclimates from stable isotopes in prehistoric bison bone and relations between weather and fractions of C4 plants in forage. Further, we developed a climate-change model that synthesized stable isotope, existing qualitative evidence (e.g., palynological, erosional), and global climate mechanisms affecting this midlatitude region. Our isotope data indicate significant warming from ≈12,400 to 11,900 yr BP, supporting climate-driven cultural separation. However, isotope evidence of apparently wet, warm conditions at 7,300 yr BP refutes emigration to avoid xeric conditions. Scarcity of archaeological sites is best explained by rapid climate fluctuations after catastrophic draining of the Laurentide Lakes, which disrupted North Atlantic Deep Water production and subsequently altered monsoonal inputs to the open plains.

The radioactivity of atmospheric krypton in 1949–1950

The chemical element krypton, whose principal source is the atmosphere, had a long-lived radioactive content, in the mid-1940s, of less than 5 dpm per liter of krypton. In the late 1940s, this content had risen to values in the range of 100 dpm per liter. It is now some hundred times higher than the late 1940 values. This radioactivity is the result of the dissolving of nuclear fuel for military and civilian purposes, and the release thereby of the fission product krypton-85 (half-life = 10.71 years, fission yield = 0.2%). The present largest emitter of krypton-85 is the French reprocessing plant at Cap-de-la-Hague.

Dependence of global temperatures on atmospheric CO2 and solar irradiance

Changes in global average temperatures and of the seasonal cycle are strongly coupled to the concentration of atmospheric CO2. I estimate transfer functions from changes in atmospheric CO2 and from changes in solar irradiance to hemispheric temperatures that have been corrected for the effects of precession. They show that changes from CO2 over the last century are about three times larger than those from changes in solar irradiance. The increase in global average temperature during the last century is at least 20 times the SD of the residual temperature series left when the effects of CO2 and changes in solar irradiance are subtracted.

Atmospheric oxygen over Phanerozoic time

It is quite possible that the level of atmospheric oxygen has varied (roughly between 15 and 30% O2) over the past 550 million years. This variation is suggested by modeling of the carbon and sulfur cycles, by the excessive sediment burial of organic matter that accompanied the advent of large vascular land plants, and by recent physiological studies that relate to biological evolution.