Are the returns to technological change in health care declining?

Whether the U.S. health care system supports too much technological change—so that new technologies of low value are adopted, or worthwhile technologies become overused—is a controversial question. This paper analyzes the marginal value of technological change for elderly heart attack patients in 1984–1990. It estimates the additional benefits and costs of treatment by hospitals that are likely to adopt new technologies first or use them most intensively. If the overall value of the additional treatments is declining, then the benefits of treatment by such intensive hospitals relative to other hospitals should decline, and the additional costs of treatment by such hospitals should rise. To account for unmeasured changes in patient mix across hospitals that might bias the results, instrumental–variables methods are used to estimate the incremental mortality benefits and costs. The results do not support the view that the returns to technological change are declining. However, the incremental value of treatment by intensive hospitals is low throughout the study period, supporting the view that new technologies are overused.

Environmental change and hedonic cost functions for automobiles

This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate “hedonic cost functions” that relate product-level costs to their characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices.

Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth: Extreme climatic and geochemical global change and its biological consequences

Geological, geophysical, and geochemical data support a theory that Earth experienced several intervals of intense, global glaciation (“snowball Earth” conditions) during Precambrian time. This snowball model predicts that postglacial, greenhouse-induced warming would lead to the deposition of banded iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have drastically curtailed biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading to an oxygen spike in the euphotic zone and to the oxidative precipitation of iron and manganese. A Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth at 2.4 Giga-annum before present (Ga) immediately precedes the Kalahari Manganese Field in southern Africa, suggesting that this rapid and massive change in global climate was responsible for its deposition. As large quantities of O2 are needed to precipitate this Mn, photosystem II and oxygen radical protection mechanisms must have evolved before 2.4 Ga. This geochemical event may have triggered a compensatory evolutionary branching in the Fe/Mn superoxide dismutase enzyme, providing a Paleoproterozoic calibration point for studies of molecular evolution.

Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

Conformational change and enhanced stabilization of the vitamin D receptor by the 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 analog KH1060.

The 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 [1,25-(OH)2vitamin D3] analog KH1060 exerts very potent effects on cell proliferation and cell differentiation via the vitamin D receptor (VDR). However, the activities of KH1060 are not associated with an increased affinity for the VDR. We now show that increased stabilization of the VDR-KH1060 complex could be an explanation for its high potencies. VDR half-life studies performed with cycloheximide-translational blocked rat osteoblast-like ROS 17/2.8 cells demonstrated that, in the absence of ligand, VDR levels rapidly decreased. After 2 hr, less than 10% of the initial VDR level could be measured. In the presence of 1,25-(OH)2vitamin D3, the VDR half-life was 15 hr. After 24 hr. less than 20% of the initial VDR content was detectable, whereas, at this time-point, when the cells were incubated with KH1060 80% of the VDR was still present. Differences in 1,25-(OH)2vitamin D3- and KH1060-induced conformational changes of the VDR could underlie the increased VDR stability. As assessed by limited proteolytic digestion analysis, both 1,25-(OH)2vitamin D3 and KH1060 caused a specific conformational change of the VDR. Compared with 1,25-(OH)2vitamin D3, KH1060 induced a conformational change that led to a far more dramatic protection of the VDR against proteolytic degradation. In conclusion, the altered VDR stability and the possibly underlying change in VDR conformation caused by KH1060 could be an explanation for its enhanced bioactivity.

Duplication and functional divergence in the chalcone synthase gene family of Asteraceae: evolution with substrate change and catalytic simplification.

Plant-specific polyketide synthase genes constitute a gene superfamily, including universal chalcone synthase [CHS; malonyl-CoA:4-coumaroyl-CoA malonyltransferase (cyclizing) (EC 2.3.1.74)] genes, sporadically distributed stilbene synthase (SS) genes, and atypical, as-yet-uncharacterized CHS-like genes. We have recently isolated from Gerbera hybrida (Asteraceae) an unusual CHS-like gene, GCHS2, which codes for an enzyme with structural and enzymatic properties as well as ontogenetic distribution distinct from both CHS and SS. Here, we show that the GCHS2-like function is encoded in the Gerbera genome by a family of at least three transcriptionally active genes. Conservation within the GCHS2 family was exploited with selective PCR to study the occurrence of GCHS2-like genes in other Asteraceae. Parsimony analysis of the amplified sequences together with CHS-like genes isolated from other taxa of angiosperm subclass Asteridae suggests that GCHS2 has evolved from CHS via a gene duplication event that occurred before the diversification of the Asteraceae. Enzyme activity analysis of proteins produced in vitro indicates that the GCHS2 reaction is a non-SS variant of the CHS reaction, with both different substrate specificity (to benzoyl-CoA) and a truncated catalytic profile. Together with the recent results of Durbin et al. [Durbin, M. L., Learn, G. H., Jr., Huttley, G. A. & Clegg, M. T. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 3338-3342], our study confirms a gene duplication-based model that explains how various related functions have arisen from CHS during plant evolution.