Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Genetics and the origin of bird species

External (environmental) factors affecting the speciation of birds are better known than the internal (genetic) factors. The opposite is true for several groups of invertebrates, Drosophila being the outstanding example. Ideas about the genetics of speciation in general trace back to Dobzhansky who worked with Drosophila. These ideas are an insufficient guide for reconstructing speciation in birds for two main reasons. First, speciation in birds proceeds with the evolution of behavioral barriers to interbreeding; postmating isolation usually evolves much later, perhaps after gene exchange has all but ceased. As a consequence of the slow evolution of postmating isolating factors the scope for reinforcement of premating isolation is small, whereas the opportunity for introgressive hybridization to influence the evolution of diverging species is large. Second, premating isolation may arise from nongenetic, cultural causes; isolation may be affected partly by song, a trait that is culturally inherited through an imprinting-like process in many, but not all, groups of birds. Thus the genetic basis to the origin of bird species is to be sought in the inheritance of adult traits that are subject to natural and sexual selection. Some of the factors involved in premating isolation (plumage, morphology, and behavior) are under single-gene control, most are under polygenic control. The genetic basis of the origin of postmating isolating factors affecting the early development of embryos (viability) and reproductive physiology (sterility) is almost completely unknown. Bird speciation is facilitated by small population size, involves few genetic changes, and occurs relatively rapidly.

Prokaryotes: The unseen majority

The number of prokaryotes and the total amount of their cellular carbon on earth are estimated to be 4–6 × 1030 cells and 350–550 Pg of C (1 Pg = 1015 g), respectively. Thus, the total amount of prokaryotic carbon is 60–100% of the estimated total carbon in plants, and inclusion of prokaryotic carbon in global models will almost double estimates of the amount of carbon stored in living organisms. In addition, the earth’s prokaryotes contain 85–130 Pg of N and 9–14 Pg of P, or about 10-fold more of these nutrients than do plants, and represent the largest pool of these nutrients in living organisms. Most of the earth’s prokaryotes occur in the open ocean, in soil, and in oceanic and terrestrial subsurfaces, where the numbers of cells are 1.2 × 1029, 2.6 × 1029, 3.5 × 1030, and 0.25–2.5 × 1030, respectively. The numbers of heterotrophic prokaryotes in the upper 200 m of the open ocean, the ocean below 200 m, and soil are consistent with average turnover times of 6–25 days, 0.8 yr, and 2.5 yr, respectively. Although subject to a great deal of uncertainty, the estimate for the average turnover time of prokaryotes in the subsurface is on the order of 1–2 × 103 yr. The cellular production rate for all prokaryotes on earth is estimated at 1.7 × 1030 cells/yr and is highest in the open ocean. The large population size and rapid growth of prokaryotes provides an enormous capacity for genetic diversity.

Accelerated evolution and Muller's rachet in endosymbiotic bacteria.

Many bacteria live only within animal cells and infect hosts through cytoplasmic inheritance. These endosymbiotic lineages show distinctive population structure, with small population size and effectively no recombination. As a result, endosymbionts are expected to accumulate mildly deleterious mutations. If these constitute a substantial proportion of new mutations, endosymbionts will show (i) faster sequence evolution and (ii) a possible shift in base composition reflecting mutational bias. Analyses of 16S rDNA of five independently derived endosymbiont clades show, in every case, faster evolution in endosymbionts than in free-living relatives. For aphid endosymbionts (genus Buchnera), coding genes exhibit accelerated evolution and unusually low ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous substitutions compared to ratios for the same genes for enterics. This concentration of the rate increase in nonsynonymous substitutions is expected under the hypothesis of increased fixation of deleterious mutations. Polypeptides for all Buchnera genes analyzed have accumulated amino acids with codon families rich in A+T, supporting the hypothesis that substitutions are deleterious in terms of polypeptide function. These observations are best explained as the result of Muller's ratchet within small asexual populations, combined with mutational bias. In light of this explanation, two observations reported earlier for Buchnera, the apparent loss of a repair gene and the overproduction of a chaperonin, may reflect compensatory evolution. An alternative hypothesis, involving selection on genomic base composition, is contradicted by the observation that the speedup is concentrated at nonsynonymous sites.

Genetic absolute dating based on microsatellites and the origin of modern humans.

We introduce a new genetic distance for microsatellite loci, incorporating features of the stepwise mutation model, and test its performance on microsatellite polymorphisms in humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas. We find that it performs well in determining the relations among the primates, but less well than other distance measures (not based on the stepwise mutation model) in determining the relations among closely related human populations. However, the deepest split in the human phylogeny seems to be accurately reconstructed by the new distance and separates African and non-African populations. The new distance is independent of population size and therefore allows direct estimation of divergence times if the mutation rate is known. Based on 30 microsatellite polymorphisms and a recently reported average mutation rate of 5.6 x 10(-4) at 15 dinucleotide microsatellites, we estimate that the deepest split in the human phylogeny occurred about 156,000 years ago. Unlike most previous estimates, ours requires no external calibration of the rate of molecular evolution. We can use such calibrations, however, to test our estimate.

Age-specific inbreeding depression and components of genetic variance in relation to the evolution of senescence.

Two major theories of the evolution of senescence (mutation accumulation and antagonistic pleiotropy) make different predictions about the relationships between age, inbreeding effects, and the magnitude of genetic variance components of life-history components. We show that, under mutation accumulation, inbreeding decline and three major components of genetic variance are expected to increase with age in randomly mating populations. Under the simplest version of the antagonistic pleiotropy model, no changes in the severity of inbreeding decline, dominance variance, or the genetic variance of chromosomal homozygotes are expected, but additive genetic variance may increase with age. Age-specific survival rates and mating success were measured on virgin males, using lines extracted from a population of Drosophila melanogaster. For both traits, inbreeding decline and several components of genetic variance increase with age. The results are consistent with the mutation accumulation model, but can only be explained by antagonistic pleiotropy if there is a general tendency for an increase with age in the size of allelic effects on these life-history traits.