The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century

The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990–2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990–2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990—a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little—perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960–1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world’s farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact.

Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) provide about two-thirds of all energy in human diets, and four major cropping systems in which these cereals are grown represent the foundation of human food supply. Yield per unit time and land has increased markedly during the past 30 years in these systems, a result of intensified crop management involving improved germplasm, greater inputs of fertilizer, production of two or more crops per year on the same piece of land, and irrigation. Meeting future food demand while minimizing expansion of cultivated area primarily will depend on continued intensification of these same four systems. The manner in which further intensification is achieved, however, will differ markedly from the past because the exploitable gap between average farm yields and genetic yield potential is closing. At present, the rate of increase in yield potential is much less than the expected increase in demand. Hence, average farm yields must reach 70–80% of the yield potential ceiling within 30 years in each of these major cereal systems. Achieving consistent production at these high levels without causing environmental damage requires improvements in soil quality and precise management of all production factors in time and space. The scope of the scientific challenge related to these objectives is discussed. It is concluded that major scientific breakthroughs must occur in basic plant physiology, ecophysiology, agroecology, and soil science to achieve the ecological intensification that is needed to meet the expected increase in food demand.

Zinc- and iron-rubredoxins from Clostridium pasteurianum at atomic resolution: a high-precision model of a ZnS4 coordination unit in a protein.

The Zn(Scys)4 unit is present in numerous proteins, where it assumes structural, regulatory, or catalytic roles. The same coordination is found naturally around iron in rubredoxins, several structures of which have been refined at resolutions of, or near to, 1 A. The fold of the small protein rubredoxin around its metal ion is an excellent model for many zinc finger proteins. Zn-substituted rubredoxin and its Fe-containing counterpart were both obtained as the products of the expression in Escherichia coli of the rubredoxin-encoding gene from Clostridium pasteurianum. The structures of both proteins have been refined with an anisotropic model at atomic resolution (1.1 A, R = 8.3% for Fe-rubredoxin, and 1.2 A, R = 9.6% for Zn-rubredoxin) and are very similar. The most significant differences are increased lengths of the M-S bonds in Zn-rubredoxin (average length, 2.345 A) as compared with Fe-rubredoxin (average length, 2.262 A). An increase of the CA-CB-SG-M dihedral angles involving Cys-6 and Cys-39, the first cysteines of each of the Cys-Xaa-Xaa-Cys metal binding motifs, has been observed. Another consequence of the replacement of iron by zinc is that the region around residues 36-46 undergoes larger displacements than the remainder of the polypeptide chain. Despite these changes, the main features of the FeS4 site, namely a local 2-fold symmetry and the characteristic network of N-H...S hydrogen bonds, are conserved in the ZnS4 site. The Zn-substituted rubredoxin provides the first precise structure of a Zn(Scys)4 unit in a protein. The nearly identical fold of rubredoxin around iron or zinc suggests that at least in some of the sites where the metal has mainly a structural role-e.g., zinc fingers-the choice of the relevant metal may be directed by its cellular availability and mobilization processes rather than by its chemical nature.

Binding site size limit of the 2:1 pyrrole-imidazole polyamide-DNA motif.

Polyamides containing N-methylimidazole (Im) and N-methylpyrrole (Py) amino acids can be combined in antiparallel side-by-side dimeric complexes for sequence-specific recognition in the minor groove of DNA. Six polyamides containing three to eight rings bind DNA sites 5-10 bp in length, respectively. Quantitative DNase I footprint titration experiments demonstrate that affinity maximizes and is similar at ring sizes of five, six, and seven. Sequence specificity decreases as the length of the polyamides increases beyond five rings. These results provide useful guidelines for the design of new polyamides that bind longer DNA sites with enhanced affinity and specificity.