Ecological inference

Ecological inference is the process of drawing conclusions about individual-level behavior from aggregate-level data. Recent advances involve the combination of statistical and deterministic means to produce such inferences.

Ecological approaches and the development of “truly integrated” pest management

Recent predictions of growth in human populations and food supply suggest that there will be a need to substantially increase food production in the near future. One possible approach to meeting this demand, at least in part, is the control of pests and diseases, which currently cause a 30–40% loss in available crop production. In recent years, strategies for controlling pests and diseases have tended to focus on short-term, single-technology interventions, particularly chemical pesticides. This model frequently applies even where so-called integrated pest management strategies are used because in reality, these often are dominated by single technologies (e.g., biocontrol, host plant resistance, or biopesticides) that are used as replacements for chemicals. Very little attention is given to the interaction or compatibility of the different technologies used. Unfortunately, evidence suggests that such approaches rarely yield satisfactory results and are unlikely to provide sustainable pest control solutions for the future. Drawing on two case histories, this paper demonstrates that by increasing our basic understanding of how individual pest control technologies act and interact, new opportunities for improving pest control can be revealed. This approach stresses the need to break away from the existing single-technology, pesticide-dominated paradigm and to adopt a more ecological approach built around a fundamental understanding of population biology at the local farm level and the true integration of renewable technologies such as host plant resistance and natural biological control, which are available to even the most resource-poor farmers.

Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) provide about two-thirds of all energy in human diets, and four major cropping systems in which these cereals are grown represent the foundation of human food supply. Yield per unit time and land has increased markedly during the past 30 years in these systems, a result of intensified crop management involving improved germplasm, greater inputs of fertilizer, production of two or more crops per year on the same piece of land, and irrigation. Meeting future food demand while minimizing expansion of cultivated area primarily will depend on continued intensification of these same four systems. The manner in which further intensification is achieved, however, will differ markedly from the past because the exploitable gap between average farm yields and genetic yield potential is closing. At present, the rate of increase in yield potential is much less than the expected increase in demand. Hence, average farm yields must reach 70–80% of the yield potential ceiling within 30 years in each of these major cereal systems. Achieving consistent production at these high levels without causing environmental damage requires improvements in soil quality and precise management of all production factors in time and space. The scope of the scientific challenge related to these objectives is discussed. It is concluded that major scientific breakthroughs must occur in basic plant physiology, ecophysiology, agroecology, and soil science to achieve the ecological intensification that is needed to meet the expected increase in food demand.

Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological implications

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

Extreme morphological and ecological homoplasy in tropical salamanders

Fossorial salamanders typically have elongate and attenuated heads and bodies, diminutive limbs, hands and feet, and extremely elongate tails. Batrachoseps from California, Lineatriton from eastern México, and Oedipina from southern México to Ecuador, all members of the family Plethodontidae, tribe Bolitoglossini, resemble one another in external morphology, which has evolved independently. Whereas Oedipina and Batrachoseps are elongate because there are more trunk vertebrae, a widespread homoplasy (parallelism) in salamanders, the genus Lineatriton is unique in having evolved convergently by an alternate “giraffe-neck” developmental program. Lineatriton has the same number of trunk vertebrae as related, nonelongated taxa, but individual trunk vertebrae are elongated. A robust phylogenetic hypothesis, based on sequences of three mtDNA genes, finds Lineatriton to be deeply nested within a clade characterized by generalized ecology and morphology. Lineatriton lineolus, the only currently recognized taxon in the genus, shows unanticipated genetic diversity. Surprisingly, geographically separated populations of L. lineolus are not monophyletic, but are sister taxa of different species of the morphologically generalized genus Pseudoeurycea. Lineatriton, long thought to be a unique monospecific lineage, is polyphyletic. Accordingly, the specialized morphology of Lineatriton displays homoplasy at two hierarchical levels: (i) with respect to other elongate lineages in the family (convergence), and (ii) within what is currently recognized as a single taxon (parallelism). These evolutionary events are of adaptive significance because to invade the lowland tropics salamanders must be either arboreal or fossorial; the repeated evolution of elongation and attenuation has led to multiple lowland invasions.

Significance of some previously unrecognized apomorphies in the nasal region of Homo neanderthalensis.

For many years, the Neanderthals have been recognized as a distinctive extinct hominid group that occupied Europe and western Asia between about 200,000 and 30,000 years ago. It is still debated, however, whether these hominids belong in their own species, Homo neanderthalensis, or represent an extinct variant of Homo sapiens. Our ongoing studies indicate that the Neanderthals differ from modern humans in their skeletal anatomy in more ways than have been recognized up to now. The purpose of this contribution is to describe specializations of the Neanderthal internal nasal region that make them unique not only among hominids but possibly among terrestrial mammals in general as well. These features lend additional weight to the suggestion that Neanderthals are specifically distinct from Homo sapiens.

Dated co-occurrence of Homo erectus and Gigantopithecus from Tham Khuyen Cave, Vietnam.

Tham Khuyen Cave (Lang Son Province, northern Vietnam) is one of the more significant sites to yield fossil vertebrates in east Asia. During the mid-1960s, excavation in a suite of deposits produced important hominoid dental remains of middle Pleistocene age. We undertake more rigorous analyses of these sediments to understand the fluvial dynamics of Pleistocene cave infilling as they determine how skeletal elements accumulate within Tham Khuyen and other east Asian sites. Uranium/thorium series analysis of speleothems brackets the Pleistocene chronology for breaching, infilling, and exhuming the regional paleokarst. Clast analysis indicates sedimentary constituents, including hominoid teeth and cranial fragments accumulated from very short distances and under low fluvial energy. Electron spin resonance analysis of vertebrate tooth enamel and sediments shows that the main fossil-bearing suite (S1-S3) was deposited about 475 thousand years ago. Among the hominoid teeth excavated from S1-S3, some represent Homo erectus and Gigantopithecus blacki. Criteria are defined to differentiate these teeth from more numerous Pongo pygmaeus elements. The dated co-occurrence of Homo erectus and Gigantopithecus blacki at Tham Khuyen helps to establish the long co-existence of these two species throughout east Asia during the Early and Middle Pleistocene.

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

Double-stranded-RNA-dependent protein kinase and TAR RNA-binding protein form homo- and heterodimers in vivo.

The yeast two-hybrid system and far-Western protein blot analysis were used to demonstrate dimerization of human double-stranded RNA (dsRNA)-dependent protein kinase (PKR) in vivo and in vitro. A catalytically inactive mutant of PKR with a single amino acid substitution (K296R) was found to dimerize in vivo, and a mutant with a deletion of the catalytic domain of PKR retained the ability to dimerize. In contrast, deletion of the two dsRNA-binding motifs in the N-terminal regulatory domain of PKR abolished dimerization. In vitro dimerization of the dsRNA-binding domain required the presence of dsRNA. These results suggest that the binding of dsRNA by PKR is necessary for dimerization. The mammalian dsRNA-binding protein TRBP, originally identified on the basis of its ability to bind the transactivation region (TAR) of human immunodeficiency virus RNA, also dimerized with itself and with PKR in the yeast assay. Taken together, these results suggest that complexes consisting of different combinations of dsRNA-binding proteins may exist in vivo. Such complexes could mediate differential effects on gene expression and control of cell growth.

Ecological chaos in the wake of invasion.

Irregularities in observed population densities have traditionally been attributed to discretization of the underlying dynamics. We propose an alternative explanation by demonstrating the evolution of spatiotemporal chaos in reaction-diffusion models for predator-prey interactions. The chaos is generated naturally in the wake of invasive waves of predators. We discuss in detail the mechanism by which the chaos is generated. By considering a mathematical caricature of the predator-prey models, we go on to explain the dynamical origin of the irregular behavior and to justify our assertion that the behavior we present is a genuine example of spatiotemporal chaos.