Evaluation of total purchasing pilots in England and Scotland and implications for primary care groups in England: personal interviews and analysis of routine data

Objectives: To evaluate the reported achievements of the 52 first wave total purchasing pilot schemes in 1996-7 and the factors associated with these; and to consider the implications of these findings for the development of the proposed primary care groups.

Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics.

The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.