Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.

Vanadium-Doped In and Sn Sulphides: Photocatalysts able to use the whole visible light spectrum

Using photocatalysis for energy applications depends, more than for environmental purposes or selective chemical synthesis, on converting as much of the solar spectrum as possible; the best photocatalyst, titania, is far from this. Many efforts are pursued to use better that spectrum in photocatalysis, by doping titania or using other materials (mainly oxides, nitrides and sulphides) to obtain a lower bandgap, even if this means decreasing the chemical potential of the electron-hole pairs. Here we introduce an alternative scheme, using an idea recently proposed for photovoltaics: the intermediate band (IB) materials. It consists in introducing in the gap of a semiconductor an intermediate level which, acting like a stepstone, allows an electron jumping from the valence band to the conduction band in two steps, each one absorbing one sub-bandgap photon. For this the IB must be partially filled, to allow both sub-bandgap transitions to proceed at comparable rates; must be made of delocalized states to minimize nonradiative recombination; and should not communicate electronically with the outer world. For photovoltaic use the optimum efficiency so achievable, over 1.5 times that given by a normal semiconductor, is obtained with an overall bandgap around 2.0 eV (which would be near-optimal also for water phtosplitting). Note that this scheme differs from the doping principle usually considered in photocatalysis, which just tries to decrease the bandgap; its aim is to keep the full bandgap chemical potential but using also lower energy photons. In the past we have proposed several IB materials based on extensively doping known semiconductors with light transition metals, checking first of all with quantum calculations that the desired IB structure results. Subsequently we have synthesized in powder form two of them: the thiospinel In2S3 and the layered compound SnS2 (having bandgaps of 2.0 and 2.2 eV respectively) where the octahedral cation is substituted at a â?10% level with vanadium, and we have verified that this substitution introduces in the absorption spectrum the sub-bandgap features predicted by the calculations. With these materials we have verified, using a simple reaction (formic acid oxidation), that the photocatalytic spectral response is indeed extended to longer wavelengths, being able to use even 700 nm photons, without largely degrading the response for above-bandgap photons (i.e. strong recombination is not induced) [3b, 4]. These materials are thus promising for efficient photoevolution of hydrogen from water; work on this is being pursued, the results of which will be presented.

Sistema de control borroso en lazo cerrado para terapias con insulina en diabetes tipo I

La diabetes mellitus es un trastorno del metabolismo de los carbohidratos producido por la insuficiente o nula producción de insulina o la reducida sensibilidad a esta hormona. Es una enfermedad crónica con una mayor prevalencia en los países desarrollados debido principalmente a la obesidad, la vida sedentaria y disfunciones en el sistema endocrino relacionado con el páncreas. La diabetes Tipo 1 es una enfermedad autoinmune en la que son destruidas las células beta del páncreas, que producen la insulina, y es necesaria la administración de insulina exógena. Un enfermo de diabetes Tipo 1 debe seguir una terapia con insulina administrada por la vía subcutánea que debe estar adaptada a sus necesidades metabólicas y a sus hábitos de vida, esta terapia intenta imitar el perfil insulínico de un páncreas no patológico. La tecnología actual permite abordar el desarrollo del denominado “páncreas endocrino artificial”, que aportaría precisión, eficacia y seguridad para los pacientes, en cuanto a la normalización del control glucémico y reducción del riesgo de hipoglucemias. Permitiría que el paciente no estuviera tan pendiente de su enfermedad. El páncreas artificial consta de un sensor continuo de glucosa, una bomba de infusión de insulina y un algoritmo de control, que calcula la insulina a infusionar usando la glucosa como información principal. Este trabajo presenta un método de control en lazo semi-cerrado mediante un sistema borroso experto basado en reglas. La regulación borrosa se fundamenta en la ambigüedad del lenguaje del ser humano. Esta incertidumbre sirve para la formación de una serie de reglas que representan el pensamiento humano, pero a la vez es el sistema que controla un proceso, en este caso el sistema glucorregulatorio. Este proyecto está enfocado en el diseño de un controlador borroso que haciendo uso de variables como la glucosa, insulina y dieta, sea capaz de restaurar la función endocrina del páncreas de forma tecnológica. La validación del algoritmo se ha realizado principalmente mediante experimentos en simulación utilizando una población de pacientes sintéticos, evaluando los resultados con estadísticos de primer orden y algunos más específicos como el índice de riesgo de Kovatchev, para después comparar estos resultados con los obtenidos por otros métodos de control anteriores. Los resultados demuestran que el control borroso (FBPC) mejora el control glucémico con respecto a un sistema predictivo experto basado en reglas booleanas (pBRES). El FBPC consigue reducir siempre la glucosa máxima y aumentar la mínima respecto del pBRES pero es en terapias desajustadas, donde el FBPC es especialmente robusto, hace descender la glucosa máxima 8,64 mg/dl, el uso de insulina es 3,92 UI menor, aumenta la glucosa mínima 3,32 mg/dl y lleva al rango de glucosa 80 – 110 mg/dl 15,33 muestras más. Por lo tanto se puede concluir que el FBPC realiza un mejor control glucémico que el controlador pBRES haciéndole especialmente efectivo, robusto y seguro en condiciones de desajustes de terapia basal y con gran capacidad de mejora futura. SUMMARY The diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder caused by a poor or null insulin secretion or a reduced sensibility to insulin. Diabetes is a chronic disease with a higher prevalence in the industrialized countries, mainly due to obesity, the sedentary life and endocrine disfunctions connected with the pancreas. Type 1 diabetes is a self-immune disease where the beta cells of the pancreas, which are the responsible of secreting insulin, are damaged. Hence, it is necessary an exogenous delivery of insulin. The Type 1 diabetic patient has to follow a therapy with subcutaneous insulin administration which should be adjusted to his/her metabolic needs and life style. This therapy tries to mimic the insulin profile of a non-pathological pancreas. Current technology lets the development of the so-called endocrine artificial pancreas that would provide accuracy, efficiency and safety to patients, in regards to the glycemic control normalization and reduction of the risk of hypoglycemic. In addition, it would help the patient not to be so concerned about his disease. The artificial pancreas has a continuous glucose sensor, an insulin infusion pump and a control algorithm, that calculates the insulin infusion using the glucose as main information. This project presents a method of control in semi-closed-loop, through an expert fuzzy system based on rules. The fuzzy regulation is based on the human language ambiguity. This uncertainty serves for construction of some rules that represent the human language besides it is the system that controls a process, in this case the glucoregulatory system. This project is focus on the design of a fuzzy controller that, using variables like glucose insulin and diet, will be able to restore the pancreas endocrine function with technology. The algorithm assessment has mainly been done through experiments in simulation using a population of synthetic patients, evaluating the results with first order statistical parameters and some other more specific such as the Kovatchev risk index, to compare later these results with the ones obtained in others previous methods of control. The results demonstrate that the fuzzy control (FBPC) improves the glycemic control connected with a predictive expert system based on Booleans rules (pBRES). The FBPC is always able to reduce the maximum level of glucose and increase the minimum level as compared with pBRES but it is in unadjusted therapies where FBPC is especially strong, it manages to decrease the maximum level of glucose and insulin used by 8,64 mg/dl and 3,92 UI respectively, also increases the value of minimum glucose by 3,32 mg/dl, getting 15,33 samples more inside the 80-110 mg/dl glucose rank. Therefore we can conclude that FBPC achieves a better glycemic control than the controller pBRES doing it especially effective, robust and safe in conditions of mismatch basal therapy and with a great capacity for future improvements.

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and The Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis. Abstract: Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Considering the critical role that water plays for agricultural production, any shock in water availability will have great implications for agricultural production, land allocation, and agricultural prices. In this paper, an Agricultural Multimarket model is developed to analyze climate change impacts in developing countries, accounting for the uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The model has a structure flexible enough to represent local conditions, resource availability, and market conditions. The results suggest different economic consequences of climate change depending on the specific activity, with many distributional effects across regions

Practical case with regard to applying the functional and environmental method to low crest level, detached breakwaters

The research work as presented in this article covers the design of detached breakwaters since they constitute a type of coastal defence work with which to combat many of the erosion problems found on beaches in a stable, sustainable fashion. The main aim of this work is to formulate a functional and environmental (but not structural) design method, enabling the fundamental characteristics of a detached breakwater to be defined as a function of the effect it is wished to induce on the coast, and taking into account variables of a different nature (climate, geomorphology and geometry) influencing the changes the shoreline undergoes after its construction. With this article, it is intended to submit the final result of the investigation undertaken, applying the detached breakwater design method as developed to solving a practical case. Thus it may be shown how the method enables a detached breakwater’s geometric pre-sizing to be tackled at a place on the coast with certain climate, geomorphology and littoral dynamic characteristics, first setting the final state of equilibrium it is wanted to obtain therein after its construction.

Approach to the use of indicators for the assessment of the environmental level of construction products

The European construction industry is supposed to consume the 40% of the natural European resources and to generate the 40% of the European solid waste. Conscious of the great damage being suffered by the environment because of construction activity, this work tries to provide the building actors with a new tool to improve the current situation. The tool proposed is a model for the comprehensive evaluation of construction products by determining their environmental level. In this research, the environmental level of a construction product has been defined as its quality of accomplishing the construction requirements needed by causing the minimum ecological impact in its surrounding environment. This information allows building actors to choose suitable materials for building needs and also for the environment, mainly in the project stage or on the building site, contributing to improve the relationship between buildings and environment. For the assessment of the environmental level of construction products, five indicators have been identified regarding their global environmental impact through the product life cycle: CO2 emissions provoked during their production, volume and toxicity of waste generated on the building site, durability and recycling capacity after their useful life. Therefore, the less environmental impact one construction product produces, the higher environmental level performs. The model has been tested in 30 construction products that include environmental criteria in their description. The results obtained will be discussed in this article. Furthermore, this model can lay down guidelines for the selection of ecoefficient construction products and the design of new eco-competitive and eco-committed ones

River Restoration in Spain: Theoretical and Practical Approach in the Context of the European Water Framework Directive.

River restoration is becoming a priority in many countries because of increasing the awareness of environmental degradation. In Europe, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) has significantly reinforced river restoration, encouraging the improvement of ecological status for water bodies. To fulfill the WFD requirements, the Spanish Ministry of the Environment developed in 2006 a National Strategy for River Restoration whose design and implementation are described in this paper. At the same time many restoration projects have been conducted, and sixty of them have been evaluated in terms of stated objectives and pressures and implemented restoration measures. Riparian vegetation enhancement, weir removal and fish passes were the most frequently implemented restoration measures, although the greatest pressures came from hydrologic alteration caused by flow regulation for irrigation purposes. Water deficits in quantity and quality associated with uncontrolled water demands seriously affect Mediterranean rivers and represent the main constraint to achieving good ecological status of Spanish rivers, most of them intensively regulated. Proper environmental allocation of in-stream flows would need deep restrictions in agricultural water use which seem to be of very difficult social acceptance. This situation highlights the need to integrate land-use and rural development policies with water resources and river management, and identifies additional difficulties in achieving the WFD objectives and good ecological status of rivers in Mediterranean countries.

The Learning of the Mathematical Models to Aid Decision Making in the High Level Engineering Schools?

At present, in the University curricula in most countries, the decision theory and the mathematical models to aid decision making is not included, as in the graduate program like in Doctored and Master´s programs. In the Technical School of High Level Agronomic Engineers of the Technical University of Madrid (ETSIA-UPM), the need to offer to the future engineers training in a subject that could help them to take decisions in their profession was felt. Along the life, they will have to take a lot of decisions. Ones, will be important and others no. In the personal level, they will have to take several very important decisions, like the election of a career, professional work, or a couple, but in the professional field, the decision making is the main role of the Managers, Politicians and Leaders. They should be decision makers and will be paid for it. Therefore, nobody can understand that such a professional that is called to practice management responsibilities in the companies, does not take training in such an important matter. For it, in the year 2000, it was requested to the University Board to introduce in the curricula an optional qualified subject of the second cycle with 4,5 credits titled " Mathematical Methods for Making Decisions ". A program was elaborated, the didactic material prepared and programs as Maple, Lingo, Math Cad, etc. installed in several IT classrooms, where the course will be taught. In the course 2000-2001 this subject was offered with a great acceptance that exceeded the forecasts of capacity and had to be prepared more classrooms. This course in graduate program took place in the Department of Applied Mathematics to the Agronomic Engineering, as an extension of the credits dedicated to Mathematics in the career of Engineering.

New Intermediate band sulphide nanoparticles acting in the full visible light range spectra as an active photocatalyst

Nowadays one of the challenges of materials science is to find new technologies that will be able to make the most of renewable energies. An example of new proposals in this field are the intermediate-band (IB) materials, which promise higher efficiencies in photovoltaic applications (through the intermediate band solar cells), or in heterogeneous photocatalysis (using nanoparticles of them, for the light-induced degradation of pollutants or for the efficient photoevolution of hydrogen from water). An IB material consists in a semiconductor in which gap a new level is introduced [1], the intermediate band (IB), which should be partially filled by electrons and completely separated of the valence band (VB) and of the conduction band (CB). This scheme (figure 1) allows an electron from the VB to be promoted to the IB, and from the latter to the CB, upon absorption of photons with energy below the band gap Eg, so that energy can be absorbed in a wider range of the solar spectrum and a higher current can be obtained without sacrificing the photovoltage (or the chemical driving force) corresponding to the full bandgap Eg, thus increasing the overall efficiency. This concept, applied to photocatalysis, would allow using photons of a wider visible range while keeping the same redox capacity. It is important to note that this concept differs from the classic photocatalyst doping principle, which essentially tries just to decrease the bandgap. This new type of materials would keep the full bandgap potential but would use also lower energy photons. In our group several IB materials have been proposed, mainly for the photovoltaic application, based on extensively doping known semiconductors with transition metals [2], examining with DFT calculations their electronic structures. Here we refer to In2S3 and SnS2, which contain octahedral cations; when doped with Ti or V an IB is formed according to quantum calculations (see e.g. figure 2). We have used a solvotermal synthesis method to prepare in nanocrystalline form the In2S3 thiospinel and the layered compound SnS2 (which when undoped have bandgaps of 2.0 and 2.2 eV respectively) where the cation is substituted by vanadium at a ?10% level. This substitution has been studied, characterizing the materials by different physical and chemical techniques (TXRF, XRD, HR-TEM/EDS) (see e.g. figure 3) and verifying with UV spectrometry that this substitution introduces in the spectrum the sub-bandgap features predicted by the calculations (figure 4). For both sulphide type nanoparticles (doped and undoped) the photocatalytic activity was studied by following at room temperature the oxidation of formic acid in aqueous suspension, a simple reaction which is easily monitored by UV-Vis spectroscopy. The spectral response of the process is measured using a collection of band pass filters that allow only some wavelengths into the reaction system. Thanks to this method the spectral range in which the materials are active in the photodecomposition (which coincides with the band gap for the undoped samples) can be checked, proving that for the vanadium substituted samples this range is increased, making possible to cover all the visible light range. Furthermore it is checked that these new materials are more photocorrosion resistant than the toxic CdS witch is a well know compound frequently used in tests of visible light photocatalysis. These materials are thus promising not only for degradation of pollutants (or for photovoltaic cells) but also for efficient photoevolution of hydrogen from water; work in this direction is now being pursued.

The potential of organic fertilizers and water management to reduce N2O emissions in Mediterranean climate cropping systems. A review.

Environmental problems related to the use of synthetic fertilizers and to organic waste management have led to increased interest in the use of organic materials as an alternative source of nutrients for crops, but this is also associated with N2O emissions. There has been an increasing amount of research into the effects of using different types of fertilization on N2O emissions under Mediterranean climatic conditions, but the findings have sometimes been rather contradictory. Available information also suggests that water management could exert a high influence on N2O emissions. In this context, we have reviewed the current scientific knowledge, including an analysis of the effect of fertilizer type and water management on direct N2O emissions. A meta-analysis of compliant reviewed experiments revealed significantly lower N2O emissions for organic as opposed to synthetic fertilizers (23% reduction). When organic materials were segregated in solid and liquid, only solid organic fertilizer emissions were significantly lower than those of synthetic fertilizers (28% reduction in cumulative emissions). The EF is similar to the IPCC factor in conventionally irrigated systems (0.98% N2O-N N applied−1), but one order of magnitude lower in rainfed systems (0.08%). Drip irrigation produces intermediate emission levels (0.66%). Differences are driven by Mediterranean agro-climatic characteristics, which include low soil organic matter (SOM) content and a distinctive rainfall and temperature pattern. Interactions between environmental and management factors and the microbial processes involved in N2O emissions are discussed in detail. Indirect emissions have not been fully accounted for, but when organic fertilizers are applied at similar N rates to synthetic fertilizers, they generally make smaller contributions to the leached NO3− pool. The most promising practices for reducing N2O through organic fertilization include: (i) minimizing water applications; (ii) minimizing bare soil; (iii) improving waste management; and (iv) tightening N cycling through N immobilization. The mitigation potential may be limited by: (i) residual effect; (ii) the long-term effects of fertilizers on SOM; (iii) lower yield-scaled performance; and (iv) total N availability from organic sources. Knowledge gaps identified in the review included: (i) insufficient sampling periods; (ii) high background emissions; (iii) the need to provide N2O EF and yield-scaled EF; (iv) the need for more research on specific cropping systems; and (v) the need for full GHG balances. In conclusion, the available information suggests a potential of organic fertilizers and water-saving practices to mitigate N2O emissions under Mediterranean climatic conditions, although further research is needed before it can be regarded as fully proven, understood and developed.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Effects of nutrition on digestión efficiency and gaseous emissions from slurry in growing pigs: III. Influence of varying the dietary level of calcium soap of palm fatty acids distillate with or without orange pulp supplemention

The aim of this study was to establish the relationships between faecal fat concentration and gaseous emissions from pig slurry. Five diets were designed to meet essential nutrient requirements: a control and four experimental feeds including two levels (35 or 70 g/kg) of calcium soap fatty acids distillate (CSP) and 0 or 200 g/kg of orange pulp (OP) combined in a 2 × 2 factorial structure. Thirty growing pigs (six per treatment) were used to measure dry matter (DM) and N balance, coefficients of total tract apparent digestibility (CTTAD) of nutrients, faecal and urine composition and potential emissions of ammonia (NH3) and methane (CH4). Increasing dietary CSP level decreased DM, ether extract (EE) and crude protein (CP) CTTAD (by 4.0, 11.1 and 3.5%, respectively, P < 0.05), but did not influence those of fibrous constituents. It also led to a decrease (from 475 to 412 g/kg DM, P < 0.001) of faecal concentration of neutral detergent fibre (aNDFom) and to an increment (from 138 to 204 g/kg, P < 0.001) of EE in faecal DM that was related to greater CH4 emissions, both per gram of organic matter (P = 0.021) or on a daily basis (P < 0.001). Level of CSP did not affect N content in faeces or urine, but increased daily DM (P < 0.001), and N (P = 0.031) faecal excretion with no effect on urine N excretion. This resulted in lesser (P = 0.036) NH3 potential emission per kg of slurry. Addition of OP decreased CTTAD of EE (by 7.9%, P = 0.044), but increased (P < 0.05) that of all the fibrous fractions. As a consequence, faecal EE content increased (from 165 to 177 g/kg DM; P = 0.012), and aNDFom decreased greatly (from 483 to 404 g/kg DM, P < 0.001), which in all resulted in a lack of effect of OP on CH4 potential emission. Inclusion of OP in the diet also led to a significant decrease of CP CTTAD (by 6.85%, P < 0.001), and to an increase of faecal CP concentration (from 174 to 226 g/kg DM, P < 0.001), with no significant influence on urine N content. These effects resulted in higher N faecal losses, especially those of the undigested dietary origin, without significant effects on potential NH3 emission. No significant interactions between CSP and OP supplementation were observed for the gaseous emissions measured.

A method to incorporate the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on multivariate analyses of ecological data

Researchers in ecology commonly use multivariate analyses (e.g. redundancy analysis, canonical correspondence analysis, Mantel correlation, multivariate analysis of variance) to interpret patterns in biological data and relate these patterns to environmental predictors. There has been, however, little recognition of the errors associated with biological data and the influence that these may have on predictions derived from ecological hypotheses. We present a permutational method that assesses the effects of taxonomic uncertainty on the multivariate analyses typically used in the analysis of ecological data. The procedure is based on iterative randomizations that randomly re-assign non identified species in each site to any of the other species found in the remaining sites. After each re-assignment of species identities, the multivariate method at stake is run and a parameter of interest is calculated. Consequently, one can estimate a range of plausible values for the parameter of interest under different scenarios of re-assigned species identities. We demonstrate the use of our approach in the calculation of two parameters with an example involving tropical tree species from western Amazonia: 1) the Mantel correlation between compositional similarity and environmental distances between pairs of sites, and; 2) the variance explained by environmental predictors in redundancy analysis (RDA). We also investigated the effects of increasing taxonomic uncertainty (i.e. number of unidentified species), and the taxonomic resolution at which morphospecies are determined (genus-resolution, family-resolution, or fully undetermined species) on the uncertainty range of these parameters. To achieve this, we performed simulations on a tree dataset from southern Mexico by randomly selecting a portion of the species contained in the dataset and classifying them as unidentified at each level of decreasing taxonomic resolution. An analysis of covariance showed that both taxonomic uncertainty and resolution significantly influence the uncertainty range of the resulting parameters. Increasing taxonomic uncertainty expands our uncertainty of the parameters estimated both in the Mantel test and RDA. The effects of increasing taxonomic resolution, however, are not as evident. The method presented in this study improves the traditional approaches to study compositional change in ecological communities by accounting for some of the uncertainty inherent to biological data. We hope that this approach can be routinely used to estimate any parameter of interest obtained from compositional data tables when faced with taxonomic uncertainty.

Modification and Developer Metrics at the Function Level: Metrics for the Study of the Evolution of a Software Project

Software evolution, and particularly its growth, has been mainly studied at the file (also sometimes referred as module) level. In this paper we propose to move from the physical towards a level that includes semantic information by using functions or methods for measuring the evolution of a software system. We point out that use of functions-based metrics has many advantages over the use of files or lines of code. We demonstrate our approach with an empirical study of two Free/Open Source projects: a community-driven project, Apache, and a company-led project, Novell Evolution. We discovered that most functions never change; when they do their number of modifications is correlated with their size, and that very few authors who modify each; finally we show that the departure of a developer from a software project slows the evolution of the functions that she authored.

Novel method to improve the signal-to-noise ratio in the far-field results obtained from planar near-field measurements

A method to reduce the noise power in far-field pattern without modifying the desired signal is proposed. Therefore, an important signal-to-noise ratio improvement may be achieved. The method is used when the antenna measurement is performed in planar near-field, where the recorded data are assumed to be corrupted with white Gaussian and space-stationary noise, because of the receiver additive noise. Back-propagating the measured field from the scan plane to the antenna under test (AUT) plane, the noise remains white Gaussian and space-stationary, whereas the desired field is theoretically concentrated in the aperture antenna. Thanks to this fact, a spatial filtering may be applied, cancelling the field which is located out of the AUT dimensions and which is only composed by noise. Next, a planar field to far-field transformation is carried out, achieving a great improvement compared to the pattern obtained directly from the measurement. To verify the effectiveness of the method, two examples will be presented using both simulated and measured near-field data.