Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS, Spain) in cooperation with EuroCARE (Bonn, Germany). The report provides a detailed description of the methodology developed to assess the implications of the European Renewable Energy Directive on the agricultural sector, with an explicit focus on regional effects of biofuel targets in the EU. For the analysis, the spatial agricultural sector model CAPRI has been extended to include a global representation of biofuel markets (with endogenous supply, demand and trade flows for biofuels and biofuel feedstocks) while keeping the focus on regional impacts in the EU. The model is capable to simulate the impacts of EU biofuel policies on food production and prices, the potential use of by-products in the feed chain, the increasing pressure on marginal and idle land and the share of imported biofuels (self-sufficiency indicators). CAPRI is now able to jointly assess biofuel and agricultural policies, including policy instruments defined at the Member State level. The CAPRI biofuel module allows for a detailed analysis of most relevant biofuel support instruments like consumer tax exemptions, quota obligations, import tariffs and other trade measures. Additionally, the model allows for analysing scenarios regarding technical progress in 2nd generation technologies for biofuels.

Impacts of the EU Biofuel Target on Agricultural Markets and Land Use - A Comparative Modelling Assessment

The Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) requires that 20% of the EU's energy needs should come from renewable sources by 2020, and includes a target for the transport sector of 10% from biofuels. This report analyses and discusses the global impacts of this biofuel target on agricultural production, markets and land use, as simulated by three agricultural sector models, AGLINK-COSIMO, ESIM and CAPRI. The impacts identified include higher EU production of ethanol and biodiesel, and of the crops used to produce them, as well as more imports of both biofuels. Trade flows of biofuel feedstocks also change to reflect greater EU demand, including a significant increase in vegetable oil imports. However, as the extra demand is small in world market terms, the impact on world market prices is limited. With the EU biofuel target, global use of land for crop cultivation is higher by 5.2 million hectares. About one quarter is area within the EU, some of which would otherwise have left agriculture.

Latin American Agricultural Trade: The Role of the WTO in Sustainable Virtual Water Flows, European Association of Agricultural Economists

International agricultural trade has been growing significantly during the last decade. Many countries rely on imports to ensure adequate food supplies to the people. A few are becoming food baskets of the world. This process raises issues about the food security in depending countries and potentially unsustainable land and water use in exporting countries. In this paper, we analyse the impacts of amplified farm trade on natural resources, especially water. Farm exports and imports of five Latin America countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Peru and Chile) are examined carefully. A preliminary analysis indicates that virtual water imports can save valuable water resources in water-short countries, such as Mexico and Chile. Major exporting countries, including Brazil and Argentina, have become big exporters due to abundant natural resource endowments. The opportunity costs of agricultural production in those countries are identified as being low, because of the predominant green water use. It is concluded that virtual water trade can be a powerful tool to alleviate water stress in semi-arid countries. However, for exporting nations a sustainable water use can only be guaranteed if environmental production costs are fully reflected in the commodity prices. There is no basis for erecting environmental trade tariffs on exporters though. Setting up legal foundations for them in full compliance with WTOs processes would be a daunting task.

Instability Analysis of Incompressible Open Cavity Flows

El problema del flujo sobre una cavidad abierta ha sido estudiado en profundidad en la literatura, tanto por el interés académico del problema como por sus aplicaciones prácticas en gran variedad de problemas ingenieriles, como puede ser el alojamiento del tren de aterrizaje de aeronaves, o el depósito de agua de aviones contraincendios. Desde hace muchos a˜nos se estudian los distintos tipos de inestabilidades asociadas a este problema: los modos bidimensionales en la capa de cortadura, y los modos tridimensionales en el torbellino de recirculación principal dentro de la cavidad. En esta tesis se presenta un estudio paramétrico completo del límite incompresible del problema, empleando la herramienta de estabilidad lineal conocida como BiGlobal. Esta aproximación permite contemplar la estabilidad global del flujo, y obtener tanto la forma como las características de los modos propios del problema físico, sean estables o inestables. El estudio realizado permite caracterizar con gran detalle todos los modos relevantes, así como la envolvente de estabilidad en el espacio paramétrico del problema incompresible (Mach nulo, variación de Reynolds, espesor de capa límite incidente, relación altura/profundidad de la cavidad, y longitud característica de la perturbación en la dirección transversal). A la luz de los resultados obtenidos se proponen una serie de relaciones entre los parámetros y características de los modos principales, como por ejemplo entre el Reynolds crítico de un modo, y la longitud característica del mismo. Los resultados numéricos se contrastan con una campaña experimental, siendo la principal conclusión de dicha comparación que los modos lineales están presentes en el flujo real saturado, pero que existen diferencias notables en frecuencia entre las predicciones teóricas y los experimentos. Para intentar determinar la naturaleza de dichas diferencias se realiza una simulación numérica directa tridimensional, y se utiliza un algoritmo de DMD (descomposición dinámica de modos) para describir el proceso de saturación. ABSTRACT The problem of the flow over an open cavity has been studied in depth in the literature, both for being an interesting academical problem and due to the multitude of industrial applications, like the landing gear of aircraft, or the water deposit of firefighter airplanes. The different types of instabilities appearing in this flow studied in the literature are two: the two-dimensional shear layer modes, and the three-dimensional modes that appear in the main recirculating vortex inside the cavity. In this thesis a parametric study in the incompressible limit of the problem is presented, using the linear stability analysis known as BiGlobal. This approximation allows to obtain the global stability behaviour of the flow, and to capture both the morphological features and the characteristics of the eigenmodes of the physical problem, whether they are stable or unstable. The study presented here characterizes with great detail all the relevant eigenmodes, as well as the hypersurface of instability on the parameter space of the incompressible problem (Mach equal to zero, and variation of the Reynolds number, the incoming boundary layer thickness, the length to depth aspect ratio of the cavity and the spanwise length of the perturbation). The results allow to construct parametric relations between the characteristics of the leading eigenmodes and the parameters of the problem, like for example the one existing between the critical Reynolds number and its characteristic length. The numerical results presented here are compared with those of an experimental campaign, with the main conclusion of said comparison being that the linear eigenmode are present in the real saturated flow, albeit with some significant differences in the frequencies of the experiments and those predicted by the theory. To try to determine the nature of those differences a three-dimensional direct numerical simulation, analyzed with Dynamic Mode Decomposition algorithm, was used to describe the process of saturation.