Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Identifying wind power ramp causes from multivariate datasets: a methodological proposal and its application to reanalysis data.

Forecasting abrupt variations in wind power generation (the so-called ramps) helps achieve large scale wind power integration. One of the main issues to be confronted when addressing wind power ramp forecasting is the way in which relevant information is identified from large datasets to optimally feed forecasting models. To this end, an innovative methodology oriented to systematically relate multivariate datasets to ramp events is presented. The methodology comprises two stages: the identification of relevant features in the data and the assessment of the dependence between these features and ramp occurrence. As a test case, the proposed methodology was employed to explore the relationships between atmospheric dynamics at the global/synoptic scales and ramp events experienced in two wind farms located in Spain. The achieved results suggested different connection degrees between these atmospheric scales and ramp occurrence. For one of the wind farms, it was found that ramp events could be partly explained from regional circulations and zonal pressure gradients. To perform a comprehensive analysis of ramp underlying causes, the proposed methodology could be applied to datasets related to other stages of the wind-topower conversion chain.

A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting.

Forecasting large and fast variations of wind power (the so called ramps) helps achieve the integration of large amounts of wind energy. This paper presents a survey on wind power ramp forecasting, reflecting the increasing interest on this topic observed since 2007. Three main aspects were identified from the literature: wind power ramp definition, ramp underlying meteorological causes and experi-ences in predicting ramps. In this framework, we additionally outline a number of recommendations and potential lines of research.

Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

Pre-Feasibility Study of Hybrid Wind Power-H-2 System Connected to Electrical Grid

The growth of wind power as an electric energy source is profitable from an environmental point of view and improves the energetic independence of countries with little fossil fuel resources. However, the wind resource randomness poses a great challenge in the management of electric grids. This study raises the possibility of using hydrogen as a mean to damp the variability of the wind resource. Thus, it is proposed the use of all the energy produced by a typical wind farm for hydrogen generation, that will in turn be used after for suitable generation of electric energy according to the operation rules in a liberalized electric market.

A wavelet-based approach for large wind power ramp characterisation

A wavelet-based approach for large wind power ramp characterisation

A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Detecting and characterising ramp events in wind power time series

In order to implement accurate models for wind power ramp forecasting, ramps need to be previously characterised. This issue has been typically addressed by performing binary ramp/non-ramp classifications based on ad-hoc assessed thresholds. However, recent works question this approach. This paper presents the ramp function, an innovative wavelet- based tool which detects and characterises ramp events in wind power time series. The underlying idea is to assess a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step, which is obtained by considering large power output gradients evaluated under different time scales (up to typical ramp durations). The ramp function overcomes some of the drawbacks shown by the aforementioned binary classification and permits forecasters to easily reveal specific features of the ramp behaviour observed at a wind farm. As an example, the daily profile of the ramp-up and ramp-down intensities are obtained for the case of a wind farm located in Spain

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Wind pumps for irrigating greenhouse crops

Agriculture is a major consumer of energy in many countries of the world. Only a few of these countries are self-sufficient in conventional energy sources, which are also exhaustible. Fortunately, there are other sources of energy, such as wind, which has experienced recent developments in the area of wind power generation. From irrigation projects to power supply in remote farms, wind power generation can play a vital role. A simple methodology for technical evaluation of windmills for irrigation water pumping has been developed in this study to determine the feasibility per unit amount of water supplied and the levels of daily irrigation demand satisfied by windmill irrigation system at various levels of risk (probability of failure). For this purpose, a series of three hourly wind-speed data over a period of 38 years at Ciego de Ávila, Cuba, were analyzed to compute the diurnal wind pump discharge at varying levels of risk. The sizes of reservoirs required to modulate fluctuating discharge and to satisfy the levels of irrigation demand, on function of crop development dates, cultivated area and water elevation height, were computed by cumulative deficit water budgeting. An example is given illustrating the use of the methodology on tomato crop Licopersicon esculentum Mill) under greenhouse.

MultiPARTES: Multicore Virtualization for Mixed-Criticality Systems

Modern embedded applications typically integrate a multitude of functionalities with potentially different criticality levels into a single system. Without appropriate preconditions, the integration of mixed-criticality subsystems can lead to a significant and potentially unacceptable increase of engineering and certification costs. A promising solution is to incorporate mechanisms that establish multiple partitions with strict temporal and spatial separation between the individual partitions. In this approach, subsystems with different levels of criticality can be placed in different partitions and can be verified and validated in isolation. The MultiPARTES FP7 project aims at supporting mixed- criticality integration for embedded systems based on virtualization techniques for heterogeneous multicore processors. A major outcome of the project is the MultiPARTES XtratuM, an open source hypervisor designed as a generic virtualization layer for heterogeneous multicore. MultiPARTES evaluates the developed technology through selected use cases from the offshore wind power, space, visual surveillance, and automotive domains. The impact of MultiPARTES on the targeted domains will be also discussed. In a number of ongoing research initiatives (e.g., RECOMP, ARAMIS, MultiPARTES, CERTAINTY) mixed-criticality integration is considered in multicore processors. Key challenges are the combination of software virtualization and hardware segregation and the extension of partitioning mechanisms to jointly address significant non-functional requirements (e.g., time, energy and power budgets, adaptivity, reliability, safety, security, volume, weight, etc.) along with development and certification methodology.

Pre-investigation of water electrolysis for flexible energy storage at large scales: the case of the Spanish power system

This report analyzes the basis of hydrogen and power integration strategies, by using water electrolysis processes as a means of flexible energy storage at large scales.

Wind pumps for irrigating greenhouse crops: comparison in different socio-economical frameworks

Wind power can play an interesting role in irrigation projects in different areas. A methodology can determine the feasibility of the technology and the levels of daily irrigation demand satisfied by windmills at different levels of risk, using tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill) as greenhouse crop. The present work compared the feasibility of the technology and the critical factors involved in three different countries: Cuba, Spain and Pakistan. The study considered as factors the wind speed level, the energy cost, the tomato prices, the reliability and distance to the electrical grid, and the crop development dates, determining the economic feasibility for each combination of factors in each country.

A framework for mixed-criticality partitioned real-time embedded systems

Los sistemas empotrados son cada día más comunes y complejos, de modo que encontrar procesos seguros, eficaces y baratos de desarrollo software dirigidos específicamente a esta clase de sistemas es más necesario que nunca. A diferencia de lo que ocurría hasta hace poco, en la actualidad los avances tecnológicos en el campo de los microprocesadores de los últimos tiempos permiten el desarrollo de equipos con prestaciones más que suficientes para ejecutar varios sistemas software en una única máquina. Además, hay sistemas empotrados con requisitos de seguridad (safety) de cuyo correcto funcionamiento depende la vida de muchas personas y/o grandes inversiones económicas. Estos sistemas software se diseñan e implementan de acuerdo con unos estándares de desarrollo software muy estrictos y exigentes. En algunos casos puede ser necesaria también la certificación del software. Para estos casos, los sistemas con criticidades mixtas pueden ser una alternativa muy valiosa. En esta clase de sistemas, aplicaciones con diferentes niveles de criticidad se ejecutan en el mismo computador. Sin embargo, a menudo es necesario certificar el sistema entero con el nivel de criticidad de la aplicación más crítica, lo que hace que los costes se disparen. La virtualización se ha postulado como una tecnología muy interesante para contener esos costes. Esta tecnología permite que un conjunto de máquinas virtuales o particiones ejecuten las aplicaciones con unos niveles de aislamiento tanto temporal como espacial muy altos. Esto, a su vez, permite que cada partición pueda ser certificada independientemente. Para el desarrollo de sistemas particionados con criticidades mixtas se necesita actualizar los modelos de desarrollo software tradicionales, pues estos no cubren ni las nuevas actividades ni los nuevos roles que se requieren en el desarrollo de estos sistemas. Por ejemplo, el integrador del sistema debe definir las particiones o el desarrollador de aplicaciones debe tener en cuenta las características de la partición donde su aplicación va a ejecutar. Tradicionalmente, en el desarrollo de sistemas empotrados, el modelo en V ha tenido una especial relevancia. Por ello, este modelo ha sido adaptado para tener en cuenta escenarios tales como el desarrollo en paralelo de aplicaciones o la incorporación de una nueva partición a un sistema ya existente. El objetivo de esta tesis doctoral es mejorar la tecnología actual de desarrollo de sistemas particionados con criticidades mixtas. Para ello, se ha diseñado e implementado un entorno dirigido específicamente a facilitar y mejorar los procesos de desarrollo de esta clase de sistemas. En concreto, se ha creado un algoritmo que genera el particionado del sistema automáticamente. En el entorno de desarrollo propuesto, se han integrado todas las actividades necesarias para desarrollo de un sistema particionado, incluidos los nuevos roles y actividades mencionados anteriormente. Además, el diseño del entorno de desarrollo se ha basado en la ingeniería guiada por modelos (Model-Driven Engineering), la cual promueve el uso de los modelos como elementos fundamentales en el proceso de desarrollo. Así pues, se proporcionan las herramientas necesarias para modelar y particionar el sistema, así como para validar los resultados y generar los artefactos necesarios para el compilado, construcción y despliegue del mismo. Además, en el diseño del entorno de desarrollo, la extensión e integración del mismo con herramientas de validación ha sido un factor clave. En concreto, se pueden incorporar al entorno de desarrollo nuevos requisitos no-funcionales, la generación de nuevos artefactos tales como documentación o diferentes lenguajes de programación, etc. Una parte clave del entorno de desarrollo es el algoritmo de particionado. Este algoritmo se ha diseñado para ser independiente de los requisitos de las aplicaciones así como para permitir al integrador del sistema implementar nuevos requisitos del sistema. Para lograr esta independencia, se han definido las restricciones al particionado. El algoritmo garantiza que dichas restricciones se cumplirán en el sistema particionado que resulte de su ejecución. Las restricciones al particionado se han diseñado con una capacidad expresiva suficiente para que, con un pequeño grupo de ellas, se puedan expresar la mayor parte de los requisitos no-funcionales más comunes. Las restricciones pueden ser definidas manualmente por el integrador del sistema o bien pueden ser generadas automáticamente por una herramienta a partir de los requisitos funcionales y no-funcionales de una aplicación. El algoritmo de particionado toma como entradas los modelos y las restricciones al particionado del sistema. Tras la ejecución y como resultado, se genera un modelo de despliegue en el que se definen las particiones que son necesarias para el particionado del sistema. A su vez, cada partición define qué aplicaciones deben ejecutar en ella así como los recursos que necesita la partición para ejecutar correctamente. El problema del particionado y las restricciones al particionado se modelan matemáticamente a través de grafos coloreados. En dichos grafos, un coloreado propio de los vértices representa un particionado del sistema correcto. El algoritmo se ha diseñado también para que, si es necesario, sea posible obtener particionados alternativos al inicialmente propuesto. El entorno de desarrollo, incluyendo el algoritmo de particionado, se ha probado con éxito en dos casos de uso industriales: el satélite UPMSat-2 y un demostrador del sistema de control de una turbina eólica. Además, el algoritmo se ha validado mediante la ejecución de numerosos escenarios sintéticos, incluyendo algunos muy complejos, de más de 500 aplicaciones. ABSTRACT The importance of embedded software is growing as it is required for a large number of systems. Devising cheap, efficient and reliable development processes for embedded systems is thus a notable challenge nowadays. Computer processing power is continuously increasing, and as a result, it is currently possible to integrate complex systems in a single processor, which was not feasible a few years ago.Embedded systems may have safety critical requirements. Its failure may result in personal or substantial economical loss. The development of these systems requires stringent development processes that are usually defined by suitable standards. In some cases their certification is also necessary. This scenario fosters the use of mixed-criticality systems in which applications of different criticality levels must coexist in a single system. In these cases, it is usually necessary to certify the whole system, including non-critical applications, which is costly. Virtualization emerges as an enabling technology used for dealing with this problem. The system is structured as a set of partitions, or virtual machines, that can be executed with temporal and spatial isolation. In this way, applications can be developed and certified independently. The development of MCPS (Mixed-Criticality Partitioned Systems) requires additional roles and activities that traditional systems do not require. The system integrator has to define system partitions. Application development has to consider the characteristics of the partition to which it is allocated. In addition, traditional software process models have to be adapted to this scenario. The V-model is commonly used in embedded systems development. It can be adapted to the development of MCPS by enabling the parallel development of applications or adding an additional partition to an existing system. The objective of this PhD is to improve the available technology for MCPS development by providing a framework tailored to the development of this type of system and by defining a flexible and efficient algorithm for automatically generating system partitionings. The goal of the framework is to integrate all the activities required for developing MCPS and to support the different roles involved in this process. The framework is based on MDE (Model-Driven Engineering), which emphasizes the use of models in the development process. The framework provides basic means for modeling the system, generating system partitions, validating the system and generating final artifacts. The framework has been designed to facilitate its extension and the integration of external validation tools. In particular, it can be extended by adding support for additional non-functional requirements and support for final artifacts, such as new programming languages or additional documentation. The framework includes a novel partitioning algorithm. It has been designed to be independent of the types of applications requirements and also to enable the system integrator to tailor the partitioning to the specific requirements of a system. This independence is achieved by defining partitioning constraints that must be met by the resulting partitioning. They have sufficient expressive capacity to state the most common constraints and can be defined manually by the system integrator or generated automatically based on functional and non-functional requirements of the applications. The partitioning algorithm uses system models and partitioning constraints as its inputs. It generates a deployment model that is composed by a set of partitions. Each partition is in turn composed of a set of allocated applications and assigned resources. The partitioning problem, including applications and constraints, is modeled as a colored graph. A valid partitioning is a proper vertex coloring. A specially designed algorithm generates this coloring and is able to provide alternative partitions if required. The framework, including the partitioning algorithm, has been successfully used in the development of two industrial use cases: the UPMSat-2 satellite and the control system of a wind-power turbine. The partitioning algorithm has been successfully validated by using a large number of synthetic loads, including complex scenarios with more that 500 applications.

Pre-investigation of water electrolysis for flexible energy storage at large scales: the case of the Spanish power system

This report analyzes the basis of hydrogen and power integration strategies, by using water electrolysis processes as a means of flexible energy storage at large scales. It is a prospective study, where the scope is to describe the characteristics of current power systems (like the generation technologies, load curves and grid constraints), and define future scenarios of hydrogen for balancing the electrical grids, considering the efficiency, economy and easiness of operations. We focus in the "Spanish case", which is a good example for planning the transition from a power system holding large reserve capacities, high penetration of renewable energies and limited interconnections, to a more sustainable energy system being capable to optimize the volumes, the regulation modes, the utilization ratios and the impacts of the installations. Thus, we explore a novel aspect of the "hydrogen economy" which is based in the potentials of existing power systems and the properties of hydrogen as energy carrier, by considering the electricity generation and demand globally and determining the optimal size and operation of the hydrogen production processes along the country; e.g. the cost production of hydrogen becomes viable for a base-load scenario with 58 TWh/year of power surplus at 0.025 V/kWh, and large number electrolyzer plants (50 MW) running in variable mode (1-12 kA/m2)