Assessment of irrigators’ preferences for different water supply risk management tools: option contract and insurance.

Irrigators face the risk of not having enough water to meet their crops’ demand. There are different mechanisms to cope with this risk, including water markets (option contracts) or insurance. A farmer will purchase them when the expected utility change derived from the tool is positive. This paper presents a theoretical assessment of the farmer’s expected utility under two different option contracts, a drought insurance and a combination of an option contract and the insurance. We analyze the conditions that determine farmer’s reference for one instrument or the other and perform a numerical application that is relevant for a Spanish region.

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.

Impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua en Europa

Esta Tesis realiza una contribución metodológica al estudio del impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua, centrándose particularmente en la agricultura. Tomando en consideración su naturaleza distinta, la metodología aborda de forma integral los impactos sobre la agricultura de secano y la agricultura de regadío. Para ello incorpora diferentes modelos agrícolas y de agua que conjuntamente con las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos permiten determinar indicadores de impacto basados en la productividad de los cultivos, para el caso de la agricultura de secano, e indicadores de impacto basados en la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación, para el caso de la agricultura de regadío. La metodología toma en consideración el efecto de la variabilidad climática en la agricultura, evaluando las necesidades de adaptación y gestión asociadas a los impactos medios y a la variabilidad en la productividad de los cultivos y el efecto de la variabilidad hidrológica en la disponibilidad de agua para regadío. Considerando la gran cantidad de información proporcionada por las salidas de las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos y su complejidad para procesarla, se ha desarrollado una herramienta de cálculo automatizada que integra diferentes escenarios climáticos, métodos y modelos que permiten abordar el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura, a escala de grandes extensiones. El procedimiento metodológico parte del análisis de los escenarios climáticos en situación actual (1961-1990) y futura (2071-2100) para determinar su fiabilidad y conocer qué dicen exactamente las proyecciones climáticas a cerca de los impactos esperados en las principales variables que intervienen en el ciclo hidrológico. El análisis hidrológico se desarrolla en los ámbitos territoriales de la planificación hidrológica en España, considerando la disponibilidad de información para validar los resultados en escenario de control. Se utilizan como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas el modelo hidrológico SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Al trabajar a escala de grandes extensiones, la limitada disponibilidad de datos o la falta de modelos hidrológicos correctamente calibrados para obtener los valores de escorrentía, muchas veces dificulta el proceso de evaluación, por tanto, en este estudio se plantea una metodología que compara diferentes métodos de interpolación y alternativas para generar series anuales de escorrentía que minimicen el sesgo con respecto a los valores observados. Así, en base a la alternativa que genera los mejores resultados, se obtienen series mensuales corregidas a partir de las simulaciones de los modelos climáticos regionales (MCR). Se comparan cuatro métodos de interpolación para obtener los valores de las variables a escala de cuenca hidrográfica, haciendo énfasis en la capacidad de cada método para reproducir los valores observados. Las alternativas utilizadas consideran la utilización de la escorrentía directa simulada por los MCR y la escorrentía media anual calculada utilizando cinco fórmulas climatológicas basadas en el índice de aridez. Los resultados se comparan además con la escorrentía global de referencia proporcionada por la UNH/GRDC que en la actualidad es el “mejor estimador” de la escorrentía actual a gran escala. El impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura de secano se evalúa considerando el efecto combinado de los riesgos asociados a las anomalías dadas por los cambios en la media y la variabilidad de la productividad de los cultivos en las regiones agroclimáticas de Europa. Este procedimiento facilita la determinación de las necesidades de adaptación y la identificación de los impactos regionales que deben ser abordados con mayor urgencia en función de los riesgos y oportunidades identificadas. Para ello se utilizan funciones regionales de productividad que han sido desarrolladas y calibradas en estudios previos en el ámbito europeo. Para el caso de la agricultura de regadío, se utiliza la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación como un indicador del impacto bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Considerando que la mayoría de estudios se han centrado en evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en régimen natural, en este trabajo se incorpora el efecto de las infraestructuras hidráulicas al momento de calcular el recurso disponible bajo escenarios de cambio climático Este análisis se desarrolla en el ámbito español considerando la disponibilidad de información, tanto de las aportaciones como de los modelos de explotación de los sistemas hidráulicos. Para ello se utiliza el modelo de gestión de recursos hídricos WAAPA (Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment) que permite calcular la máxima demanda que puede atenderse bajo determinados criterios de garantía. Se utiliza las series mensuales de escorrentía observadas y las series mensuales de escorrentía corregidas por la metodología previamente planteada con el objeto de evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en escenario de control. Se construyen proyecciones climáticas utilizando los cambios en los valores medios y la variabilidad de las aportaciones simuladas por los MCR y también utilizando una fórmula climatológica basada en el índice de aridez. Se evalúan las necesidades de gestión en términos de la satisfacción de las demandas de agua para irrigación a través de la comparación entre la disponibilidad de agua en situación actual y la disponibilidad de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Finalmente, mediante el desarrollo de una herramienta de cálculo que facilita el manejo y automatización de una gran cantidad de información compleja obtenida de las simulaciones de los MCR se obtiene un proceso metodológico que evalúa de forma integral el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura a escala de grandes extensiones, y a la vez permite determinar las necesidades de adaptación y gestión en función de las prioridades identificadas. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a methodological contribution for studying the impact of climate change on water use, focusing particularly on agriculture. Taking into account the different nature of the agriculture, this methodology addresses the impacts on rainfed and irrigated agriculture, integrating agricultural and water planning models with climate change simulations scenarios in order to determine impact indicators based on crop productivity and water availability for irrigation, respectively. The methodology incorporates the effect of climate variability on agriculture, assessing adaptation and management needs associated with mean impacts, variability in crop productivity and the effect of hydrologic variability on water availability for irrigation. Considering the vast amount of information provided by the outputs of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations and also its complexity for processing it, a tool has been developed to integrate different climate scenarios, methods and models to address the impact of climate change on agriculture at large scale. Firstly, a hydrological analysis of the climate change scenarios is performed under current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) situation in order to know exactly what the models projections say about the expected impact on the main variables involved in the hydrological cycle. Due to the availability of information for validating the results in current situation, the hydrological analysis is developed in the territorial areas of water planning in Spain, where the values of naturalized runoff have been estimated by the hydrological model SIMPA, which are used as observed data. By working in large-scale studies, the limited availability of data or lack of properly calibrated hydrological model makes difficult to obtain runoff time series. So as, a methodology is proposed to compare different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimize the bias with respect to observed values. Thus, the best alternative is selected in order to obtain bias-corrected monthly time series from the RCM simulations. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from different RCM are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behavior of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index. The results are also compared with the global runoff reference provided by the UNH/GRDC dataset, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Secondly, the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture is assessed considering the combined effect of the risks associated with anomalies given by changes in the mean and variability of crop productivity in the agro-climatic regions of Europe. This procedure allows determining adaptation needs based on the regional impacts that must be addressed with greater urgency in light of the risks and opportunities identified. Statistical models of productivity response are used for this purpose which have been developed and calibrated in previous European study. Thirdly, the impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture is evaluated considering the water availability for irrigation as an indicator of the impact. Given that most studies have focused on assessing water availability in natural regime, the effect of regulation is incorporated in this approach. The analysis is developed in the Spanish territory considering the available information of the observed stream flows and the regulation system. The Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model is used in this study, which allows obtaining the maximum demand that could be supplied under certain conditions (demand seasonal distribution, water supply system management, and reliability criteria) for different policy alternatives. The monthly bias corrected time series obtained by previous methodology are used in order to assess water availability in current situation. Climate change projections are constructed taking into account the variation in mean and coefficient of variation simulated by the RCM. The management needs are determined by the agricultural demands satisfaction through the comparison between water availability under current conditions and under climate change projections. Therefore, the methodology allows evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture to large scale, using a tool that facilitates the process of a large amount of complex information provided by the RCM simulations, in order to determine the adaptation and management needs in accordance with the priorities of the indentified impacts.

Building a New Water Culture in Spain

For over 100 years, water policy and man­ agement in Spain have been instruments of economic and social transformation. Sig­ nificant public and private investments in water supply infrastructures have equipped Spain with over 1,200 major dams, 20 major desalination plants ? with more under construction ? and several inter­basin water transfers. The system has been apparently very successful, with an increase in overall water availability, strong associated eco­ nomic development and few urban water supply shortages. This success has been supported by a widespread consensus among a strong and largely closed water policy community made up of water manag­ ers, irrigators, electric (hydropower) utilities and developers.

Probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture and associated crop net margins.

Rising water demands are difficult to meet in many regions of the world. In consequence, under meteorological adverse conditions, big economic losses in agriculture can take place. This paper aims to analyze the variability of water shortage in an irrigation district and the effect on farmer?s income. A probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture in the irrigation district is performed, through a supply-system simulation approach, considering stochastically generated series of stream-flows. Net margins associated to crop production are as well estimated depending on final water allocations. Net margins are calculated considering either single-crop farming, either a polyculture system. In a polyculture system, crop distribution and water redistribution are calculated through an optimization approach using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for several scenarios of irrigation water availability. Expected net margins are obtained by crop and for the optimal crop and water distribution. The maximum expected margins are obtained for the optimal crop combination, followed by the alfalfa monoculture, maize, rice, wheat and finally barley. Water is distributed as follows, from biggest to smallest allocation: rice, alfalfa, maize, wheat and barley.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Impact of nitrogen uptake on field water balance in fertirrigated melon.

Agronomic management in Ciudad Real, a province in central Spain, is characteristic of semi-arid cropped areas whose water supplies have high nitrate (NO3?) content due to environmental degradation. This situation is aggravated by the existence of a restrictive subsurface layer of ?caliche? or hardpan at a depth of 0.60 m. Under these circumstances, fertirrigation rates, including nitrogen (N) fertilizer schedules, must be carefully calibrated to optimize melon yields while minimizing the N pollution and water supply. Such optimization was sought by fertilizing with different doses of N and irrigating at 100% of the ETc (crop evapotranspiration), adjusted for this crop and area. The N content in the four fertilizer doses used was: 0, 55, 82 and 109 kg N ha?1. Due to the NO3? content in the irrigation water, however, the actual N content was 30 kg ha?1 higher in all four treatments repeated in two different years. The results showed correlation between melon plant N uptake and drainage (Dr), which in turn affects the amount of N leached, as well as correlation between Dr and LAI (leaf area index) for each treatment. A fertilizer factor (?) was estimated through two methods, from difference in Dr and in LAI ratio with respect to the maximum N dose, to correct ETc based on N doses. The difference was found in the adjusted evapotranspiration in both years using the corresponding ? achieved 42?49 mm at vegetative period, depending on the method, and it was not significant at senescent period. Finally, a growth curve between N uptake and plant dry weight (DW) for each treatment was defined to confirm that the observed higher plant vigour, showing higher LAI and reduced Dr, was due mainly to higher N doses.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Energy requirements in pressure irrigation systems

Modernization of irrigation schemes, generally understood as transformation of surface irrigation systems into pressure –sprinkler and trickle- irrigation systems, aims at, among others, improving irrigation efficiency and reduction of operation and maintenance efforts made by the irrigators. However, pressure irrigation systems, in contrast, carry a serious energy cost. Energy requirements depend on decisions taken on management strategies during the operation phase, which are conditioned by previous decisions taken on the design project of the different elements which compose the irrigation system. Most of the countries where irrigation activity is significant bear in mind that modernization irrigation must play a key role in the agricultural infrastructure policies. The objective of this study is to characterize and estimate the mean and variation of the energy consumed by common types of irrigation systems and their management possibilities. The work includes all processes involved from the diversion of water into irrigation specific infrastructure to water discharge by the emitters installed on the crop fields. Simulation taking into account all elements comprising the irrigation system has been used to estimate the energy requirements of typical irrigation systems of several crop production systems. It has been applied to extensive and intensive crop systems, such us extensive winter crops, summer crops and olive trees, fruit trees and vineyards and intensive horticulture in greenhouses. The simulation of various types of irrigation systems and management strategies, in the framework imposed by particular cropping systems, would help to develop criteria for improving the energy balance in relation to the irrigation water supply productivity.

Overview of the Spanish Fuel Cycle: Technical Tours Organized by Spanish young Generation in Nuclear.

Spanish Young Generation in Nuclear (Jóvenes Nucleares, JJNN) is a non-profrt organization that depends on the Spanish Nuclear Society (Sociedad Nuclear Española, SNE).Since one of rts main goals is to spread the knowledge about nuclear power,severa! technical tours to facilities wrth an importan!role in the nuclear fuel cycle have been organized for the purpose ofleaming about the different stages of the Spanish tuel cycle. Spanish Young Generation in Nuclear had the opportunity to visit ENUSA Fuel Assembly Factory in Juzbado (Salamanca, Spain), Where it could be understood the front-end cycle which involves the uranium supply and storage, design and manufacturing of fuel bundles for European nuclear power plants. Alterwards, due to the tour of Almaraz NPP (PWR) and Santa María de Garoña NPP (BWR), rt could be comprehended how to obtain energy from this fuel in two different types of reactors.Furthermore,in these two plants, the facilities related to the back-end cycle could be toured. lt was possible to watch the Spent FuelPools, where the fuel bundles are stored under water until their activity is reduced enough to transport them to an Individual Temporary Storage Facility orto the Centralized Temporary Storage. Finally, a technical tour to ENSA Heavy Components Factory (ENSA) was accomplished, Where it could be experienced at first hand how different Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) components and other nuclear elements, such as racks or shipping and storage casks for spent nuclear fuel, are manulactured. All these perlonned technical tours were a complete success thanks to a generous care and know-how of the wor1

The Spanish water ?pressure cooker?: Threading the interplay between resource resilient water governance outcomes by strengthening the robustness of water governance processes.

This paper uses the metaphor of a pressure cooker to highlight how water problems in Spain are highly geographical and sectorial in nature, with some specific hotspots which raise the temperature of the whole water complex system, turning many potentially solvable water problems into ?wicked problems?. The paper discusses the tendency for water governance to be hydrocentric, when often the drivers and in turn the ?solutions? to Spanish water problems lie outside the water sphere. The paper analyzes of the current water governance system by looking at water governance as both a process, and its key attributes like participation, trans- parency, equity and rule of law, as well as an analysis of water governance as an outcome by looking at efficiency and sustainability of water use in Spain. It concludes on the need to have a deeper knowledge on the interactions of water governance as a process and as an outcome and potential synergies and arguing that water governance is an inherently political process which calls for strengthening the capacity of the system by looking at the interactions of these different governance attributes.

Metodología de análisis estadístico de roturas en redes de distribución de agua

La presente Tesis plantea una metodología de análisis estadístico de roturas de tubería en redes de distribución de agua, que analiza la relación entre las roturas y la presión de agua y que propone la implantación de una gestión de presiones que reduzca el número de roturas que se producen en dichas redes. Las redes de distribución de agua se deterioran y una de sus graves consecuencias es la aparición de roturas frecuentes en sus tuberías. Las roturas llevan asociados elevados costes sociales, económicos y medioambientales y es por ello por lo que las compañías gestoras del agua tratan de reducirlas en la medida de lo posible. Las redes de distribución de agua se pueden dividir en zonas o sectores que facilitan su control y que pueden ser independientes o aislarse mediante válvulas, como ocurre en las redes de países más desarrollados, o pueden estar intercomunicados hidráulicamente. La implantación de una gestión de presiones suele llevarse a cabo a través de las válvulas reductoras de presión (VPR), que se instalan en las cabeceras de estos sectores y que controlan la presión aguas abajo de la misma, aunque varíe su caudal de entrada. Los métodos más conocidos de la gestión de presiones son la reducción de presiones, que es el control más habitual, el mantenimiento de la presión, la prevención y/o alivio de los aumentos repentinos de presión y el establecimiento de un control por alturas. A partir del año 2005 se empezó a reconocer el efecto de la gestión de presiones sobre la disminución de las roturas. En esta Tesis, se sugiere una gestión de presiones que controle los rangos de los indicadores de la presión de cabecera que más influyan en la probabilidad de roturas de tubería. Así, la presión del agua se caracteriza a través de indicadores obtenidos de la presión registrada en la cabecera de los sectores, debido a que se asume que esta presión es representativa de la presión de operación de todas las tuberías porque las pérdidas de carga son relativamente bajas y las diferencias topográficas se tienen en cuenta en el diseño de los sectores. Y los indicadores de presión, que se pueden definir como el estadístico calculado a partir de las series de la presión de cabecera sobre una ventana de tiempo, pueden proveer la información necesaria para ayudar a la toma de decisiones a los gestores del agua con el fin de reducir las roturas de tubería en las redes de distribución de agua. La primera parte de la metodología que se propone en esta Tesis trata de encontrar los indicadores de presión que influyen más en la probabilidad de roturas de tuberías. Para conocer si un indicador es influyente en la probabilidad de las roturas se comparan las estimaciones de las funciones de distribución acumulada (FDAs) de los indicadores de presiones, considerando dos situaciones: cuando se condicionan a la ocurrencia de una rotura (suceso raro) y cuando se calculan en la situación normal de operación (normal operación). Por lo general, las compañías gestoras cuentan con registros de roturas de los años más recientes y al encontrarse las tuberías enterradas se complica el acceso a la información. Por ello, se propone el uso de funciones de probabilidad que permiten reducir la incertidumbre asociada a los datos registrados. De esta forma, se determinan las funciones de distribución acumuladas (FDAs) de los valores del indicador de la serie de presión (situación normal de operación) y las FDAs de los valores del indicador en el momento de ocurrencia de las roturas (condicionado a las roturas). Si las funciones de distribución provienen de la misma población, no se puede deducir que el indicador claramente influya en la probabilidad de roturas. Sin embargo, si se prueba estadísticamente que las funciones proceden de la misma población, se puede concluir que existe una relación entre el indicador analizado y la ocurrencia de las roturas. Debido a que el número de valores del indicador de la FDA condicionada a las roturas es mucho menor que el número de valores del indicador de la FDA incondicional a las roturas, se generan series aleatorias a partir de los valores de los indicadores con el mismo número de valores que roturas registradas hay. De esta forma, se comparan las FDAs de series aleatorias del indicador con la FDA condicionada a las roturas del mismo indicador y se deduce si el indicador es influyente en la probabilidad de las roturas. Los indicadores de presión pueden depender de unos parámetros. A través de un análisis de sensibilidad y aplicando un test estadístico robusto se determina la situación en la que estos parámetros dan lugar a que el indicador sea más influyente en la probabilidad de las roturas. Al mismo tiempo, los indicadores se pueden calcular en función de dos parámetros de cálculo que se denominan el tiempo de anticipación y el ancho de ventana. El tiempo de anticipación es el tiempo (en horas) entre el final del periodo de computación del indicador de presión y la rotura, y el ancho de ventana es el número de valores de presión que se requieren para calcular el indicador de presión y que es múltiplo de 24 horas debido al comportamiento cíclico diario de la presión. Un análisis de sensibilidad de los parámetros de cálculo explica cuándo los indicadores de presión influyen más en la probabilidad de roturas. En la segunda parte de la metodología se presenta un modelo de diagnóstico bayesiano. Este tipo de modelo forma parte de los modelos estadísticos de prevención de roturas, parten de los datos registrados para establecer patrones de fallo y utilizan el teorema de Bayes para determinar la probabilidad de fallo cuando se condiciona la red a unas determinadas características. Así, a través del teorema de Bayes se comparan la FDA genérica del indicador con la FDA condicionada a las roturas y se determina cuándo la probabilidad de roturas aumenta para ciertos rangos del indicador que se ha inferido como influyente en las roturas. Se determina un ratio de probabilidad (RP) que cuando es superior a la unidad permite distinguir cuándo la probabilidad de roturas incrementa para determinados intervalos del indicador. La primera parte de la metodología se aplica a la red de distribución de la Comunidad de Madrid (España) y a la red de distribución de Ciudad de Panamá (Panamá). Tras el filtrado de datos se deduce que se puede aplicar la metodología en 15 sectores en la Comunidad de Madrid y en dos sectores, llamados corregimientos, en Ciudad de Panamá. Los resultados demuestran que en las dos redes los indicadores más influyentes en la probabilidad de las roturas son el rango de la presión, que supone la diferencia entre la presión máxima y la presión mínima, y la variabilidad de la presión, que considera la propiedad estadística de la desviación típica. Se trata, por tanto, de indicadores que hacen referencia a la dispersión de los datos, a la persistencia de la variación de la presión y que se puede asimilar en resistencia de materiales a la fatiga. La segunda parte de la metodología se ha aplicado a los indicadores influyentes en la probabilidad de las roturas de la Comunidad de Madrid y se ha deducido que la probabilidad de roturas aumenta para valores extremos del indicador del rango de la presión y del indicador de la variabilidad de la presión. Finalmente, se recomienda una gestión de presiones que limite los intervalos de los indicadores influyentes en la probabilidad de roturas que incrementen dicha probabilidad. La metodología propuesta puede aplicarse a otras redes de distribución y puede ayudar a las compañías gestoras a reducir el número de fallos en el sistema a través de la gestión de presiones. This Thesis presents a methodology for the statistical analysis of pipe breaks in water distribution networks. The methodology studies the relationship between pipe breaks and water pressure, and proposes a pressure management procedure to reduce the number of breaks that occur in such networks. One of the manifestations of the deterioration of water supply systems is frequent pipe breaks. System failures are one of the major challenges faced by water utilities, due to their associated social, economic and environmental costs. For all these reasons, water utilities aim at reducing the problem of break occurrence to as great an extent as possible. Water distribution networks can be divided into areas or sectors, which facilitates the control of the network. These areas may be independent or isolated by valves, as it usually happens in developing countries. Alternatively, they can be hydraulically interconnected. The implementation of pressure management strategies is usually carried out through pressure-reducing valves (PRV). These valves are installed at the head of the sectors and, although the inflow may vary significantly, they control the downstream pressure. The most popular methods of pressure management consist of pressure reduction, which is the common form of control, pressure sustaining, prevention and/or alleviation of pressure surges or large variations in pressure, and level/altitude control. From 2005 onwards, the effects of pressure management on burst frequencies have become more widely recognized in the technical literature. This thesis suggests a pressure management that controls the pressure indicator ranges most influential on the probability of pipe breaks. Operating pressure in a sector is characterized by means of a pressure indicator at the head of the DMA, as head losses are relatively small and topographical differences were accounted for at the design stage. The pressure indicator, which may be defined as the calculated statistic from the time series of pressure head over a specific time window, may provide necessary information to help water utilities to make decisions to reduce pipe breaks in water distribution networks. The first part of the methodology presented in this Thesis provides the pressure indicators which have the greatest impact on the probability of pipe breaks to be determined. In order to know whether a pressure indicator influences the probability of pipe breaks, the proposed methodology compares estimates of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of a pressure indicator through consideration of two situations: when they are conditioned to the occurrence of a pipe break (a rare event), and when they are not (a normal operation). Water utilities usually have a history of failures limited to recent periods of time, and it is difficult to have access to precise information in an underground network. Therefore, the use of distribution functions to address such imprecision of recorded data is proposed. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from the time series of pressure indicators (normal operation) and CDFs of indicator values at times coincident with a reported pipe break (conditioned to breaks) are compared. If all estimated CDFs are drawn from the same population, there is no reason to infer that the studied indicator clearly influences the probability of the rare event. However, when it is statistically proven that the estimated CDFs do not come from the same population, the analysed indicator may have an influence on the occurrence of pipe breaks. Due to the fact that the number of indicator values used to estimate the CDF conditioned to breaks is much lower in comparison with the number of indicator values to estimate the CDF of the unconditional pressure series, and that the obtained results depend on the size of the compared samples, CDFs from random sets of the same size sampled from the unconditional indicator values are estimated. Therefore, the comparison between the estimated CDFs of random sets of the indicator and the estimated CDF conditioned to breaks allows knowledge of if the indicator is influential on the probability of pipe breaks. Pressure indicators depend on various parameters. Sensitivity analysis and a robust statistical test allow determining the indicator for which these parameters result most influential on the probability of pipe breaks. At the same time, indicators can be calculated according to two model parameters, named as the anticipation time and the window width. The anticipation time refers to the time (hours) between the end of the period for the computation of the pressure indicator and the break. The window width is the number of instantaneous pressure values required to calculate the pressure indicator and is multiple of 24 hours, as water pressure has a cyclical behaviour which lasts one day. A sensitivity analysis of the model parameters explains when the pressure indicator is more influential on the probability of pipe breaks. The second part of the methodology presents a Bayesian diagnostic model. This kind of model belongs to the class of statistical predictive models, which are based on historical data, represent break behavior and patterns in water mains, and use the Bayes’ theorem to condition the probability of failure to specific system characteristics. The Bayes’ theorem allows comparing the break-conditioned FDA and the unconditional FDA of the indicators and determining when the probability of pipe breaks increases for certain pressure indicator ranges. A defined probability ratio provides a measure to establish whether the probability of breaks increases for certain ranges of the pressure indicator. The first part of the methodology is applied to the water distribution network of Madrid (Spain) and to the water distribution network of Panama City (Panama). The data filtering method suggests that the methodology can be applied to 15 sectors in Madrid and to two areas in Panama City. The results show that, in both systems, the most influential indicators on the probability of pipe breaks are the pressure range, which is the difference between the maximum pressure and the minimum pressure, and pressure variability, referred to the statistical property of the standard deviation. Therefore, they represent the dispersion of the data, the persistence of the variation in pressure and may be related to the fatigue in material resistance. The second part of the methodology has been applied to the influential indicators on the probability of pipe breaks in the water distribution network of Madrid. The main conclusion is that the probability of pipe breaks increases for the extreme values of the pressure range indicator and of the pressure variability indicator. Finally, a pressure management which limits the ranges of the pressure indicators influential on the probability of pipe breaks that increase such probability is recommended. The methodology presented here is general, may be applied to other water distribution networks, and could help water utilities reduce the number of system failures through pressure management.

Water use efficiency and water productivity in the Spanish irrigation district ¿Río Adaja?

A study of the assessment of the irrigation water use has been carried out in the Spanish irrigation District “Río Adaja” that has analyzed the water use efficiency and the water productivity indicators for the main crops for three years: 2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. A soil water balance model was applied taking into ccount climatic data for the nearby weather station and soil properties. Crop water requirements were calculated by the FAO Penman- Monteith with the application of the dual crop coefficient and by considering the readily vailable soil water content (RAW) concept. Likewise, productivity was measured by the indexes: annual relative irrigation supply (ARIS), annual relative water supply (ARWS), relative rainfall supply (RRS), the water productivity (WP), the evapotranspiration water productivity (ETWP), and the irrigation water productivity (IWP. The results show that in most crops deficit irrigation was applied (ARIS<1) in the first two years however, the IWP improved. This was higher in 2010-2011 which corresponded to the highest effective precipitation Pe. In general, the IWP (€.m-3) varied amongcrops but crops such as: onion (4.14, 1.98 and 2.77 respectively for the three years), potato (2.79, 1.69 and 1.62 respectively for the three years), carrot (1.37, 1.70 and 1.80 respectively for the three years) and barley (1.21, 1.16 and 0.68 respectively for the three years) showed the higher values. Thus, it is highlighted the y could be included into the cropping pattern which would maximize the famer’s gross income in the irrigation district.

Option contracts for allocating water in inter-basin transfers: the case of the Tagus-Segura Basin in Spain

Users in the Mediterranean region face significant water supply risks. Water markets mechanisms can provide flexibility to water systems run in tight situations. The largest water infrastructure in the Iberian Peninsula connects the Segura and Tagus Basins. Stakeholders and politicians in the Tagus Basin have asked that water transfers between the two basins be eventually phased out. The need to increase the statutory minimum environmental flow in the middle Tagus and to meet new urban demands is going to result in a redefinition of the Transfer?s management rules, leading to a reduction in the transferable volumes. To minimise the consequences of such restrictions to irrigators in the Segura Basin who depend on the transferred volumes, we propose the establishment of water option contracts between both basins that represents an institutional innovation with respect to previous inter-basin spot market experiences. Based on the draft of the new Tagus Basin Plan, we propose both a modification of the Transfer?s management rule and an innovative inter-basin option contract. The main goal of the paper is to define this contract and evaluate it with respect to non-market scenarios. We also assess the resulting impact on environmental flows in the Tagus River and water availability for users in the Segura Basin, together with the economic impacts of such contract on both basins. Our results show that the proposed option contract would reduce the impact of a change in the transfer?s management rule, and reduce the supply risks of the recipient area.

Testing of crop Models for Accurate Predictions of Evapotranspiration and crop Water Use

All crop models, whether site-specific or global-gridded and regardless of crop, simulate daily crop transpiration and soil evaporation during the crop life cycle, resulting in seasonal crop water use. Modelers use several methods for predicting daily potential evapotranspiration (ET), including FAO-56, Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, full energy balance, and transpiration water efficiency. They use extinction equations to partition energy to soil evaporation or transpiration, depending on leaf area index. Most models simulate soil water balance and soil-root water supply for transpiration, and limit transpiration if water uptake is insufficient, and thereafter reduce dry matter production. Comparisons among multiple crop and global gridded models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) show surprisingly large differences in simulated ET and crop water use for the same climatic conditions. Model intercomparisons alone are not enough to know which approaches are correct. There is an urgent need to test these models against field-observed data on ET and crop water use. It is important to test various ET modules/equations in a model platform where other aspects such as soil water balance and rooting are held constant, to avoid compensation caused by other parts of models. The CSM-CROPGRO model in DSSAT already has ET equations for Priestley-Taylor, Penman-FAO-24, Penman-Monteith-FAO-56, and an hourly energy balance approach. In this work, we added transpiration-efficiency modules to DSSAT and AgMaize models and tested the various ET equations against available data on ET, soil water balance, and season-long crop water use of soybean, fababean, maize, and other crops where runoff and deep percolation were known or zero. The different ET modules created considerable differences in predicted ET, growth, and yield.