13 resultados para univariate and multivariate yield indices

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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The aim of this work is to test the present status of Evaluated Nuclear Decay and Fission Yield Data Libraries to predict decay heat and delayed neutron emission rate, average neutron energy and neutron delayed spectra after a neutron fission pulse. Calculations are performed with JEFF-3.1.1 and ENDF/B-VII.1, and these are compared with experimental values. An uncertainty propagation assessment of the current nuclear data uncertainties is performed.

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In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

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The area cultivated using conservation tillage has recently increased in central Spain. However, soil compaction and water retention with conservation tillage still remains a genuine concern for landowners in this region be- cause of its potential effect on the crop growth and yield. The aim of this research is to determine the short- term influences of four tillage treatments on soil physical properties. In the experiment, bulk density, cone index, soil water potential, soil temperature and maize (Zea mays L.) productivity have been measured. A field experiment was established in spring of 2013 on a loamy soil. The experiment compared four tillage methods (zero tillage, ZT; reservoir tillage, RT; minimum tillage, MT; and conventional tillage, CT). Soil bulk density and soil cone index were measured during maize growing season and at harvesting time. Furthermore, the soil water potential was monitored by using a wireless sensors network with sensors at 20 and 40 cm depths. Also, soil temperatures were registered at depths of 5 and 12 cm. Results indicated that there were significant differ- ences between soil bulk density and cone index of ZT method and those of RT, MT, and CT, during the growing season; although, this difference was not significant at the time of harvesting in some soil layers. Overall, in most soil layers, tillage practice affected bulk density and cone index in the order: ZT N RT N MT N CT. Regardless oftheentireobservationperiod,results exhibited that soils under ZT and RT treatments usually resulted in higher water potential and lower soil temperature than the other two treatments at both soil depths. In addition, clear differences in maize grain yield were observed between ZT and CT treatments, with a grain yield (up to 15.4%) increase with the CT treatment. On the other hand, no significant differences among (RT, MT, and CT) on maizeyieldwerefound.Inconclusion,the impact of soil compaction increase and soil temperature decrease,pro- duced by ZT treatment is a potential reason for maize yield reduction in this tillage method. We found that RT could be certainly a viable option for farmers incentral Spain,particularly when switching to conservation tillage from conventional tillage. This technique showed a moderate and positive effect on soil physical properties and increased maize yields compared to ZT and MT, and provides an opportunity to stabilize maize yields compared to CT.

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In this article we study the univariate and bivariate truncated von Mises distribution, as a generalization of the von Mises distribution (\cite{jupp1989}), (\cite{mardia2000directional}). This implies the addition of two or four new truncation parameters in the univariate and, bivariate cases, respectively. The results include the definition, properties of the distribution and maximum likelihood estimators for the univariate and bivariate cases. Additionally, the analysis of the bivariate case shows how the conditional distribution is a truncated von Mises distribution, whereas the marginal distribution that generalizes the distribution introduced in \cite{repe}. From the viewpoint of applications, we test the distribution with simulated data, as well as with data regarding leaf inclination angles (\cite{safari}) and dihedral angles in protein chains (\cite{prote}). This research aims to assert this probability distribution as a potential option for modelling or simulating any kind of phenomena where circular distributions are applicable.\par

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Automatic segmentation using univariate and multivariate techniques provides more objective and efficient segmentations of the river systems (Alber & Piégay, 2011) and can be complementary to the expert criteria traditionally used (Brenden et al., 2008) INTEREST: A powerful tool to objectively segment the continuity of rivers, which is required for diagnosing problems associated to human impacts OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potentiality of univariate and multivariate methods in the assessment of river adjustments produced by flow regulation

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—Microarray-based global gene expression profiling, with the use of sophisticated statistical algorithms is providing new insights into the pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases. We have applied a novel statistical technique for gene selection based on machine learning approaches to analyze microarray expression data gathered from patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and primary antiphospholipid syndrome (PAPS), two autoimmune diseases of unknown genetic origin that share many common features. The methodology included a combination of three data discretization policies, a consensus gene selection method, and a multivariate correlation measurement. A set of 150 genes was found to discriminate SLE and PAPS patients from healthy individuals. Statistical validations demonstrate the relevance of this gene set from an univariate and multivariate perspective. Moreover, functional characterization of these genes identified an interferon-regulated gene signature, consistent with previous reports. It also revealed the existence of other regulatory pathways, including those regulated by PTEN, TNF, and BCL-2, which are altered in SLE and PAPS. Remarkably, a significant number of these genes carry E2F binding motifs in their promoters, projecting a role for E2F in the regulation of autoimmunity.

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Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

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In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

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En las últimas décadas, ha aumentado el interés de la investigación sobre el desarrollo de la coordinación motriz en la adolescencia por ser una etapa sensible, crítica y crucial para la adquisición de hábitos y conductas saludables de vida. Estos estudios han mostrado que la adquisición de unos niveles óptimos de coordinación y competencia motriz van a ser determinantes para el bienestar del adolescente y van a estar relacionados e influidos por otras dimensiones del desarrollo de la persona. Recientes investigaciones han sacado a la luz datos alarmantes sobre el aumento de problemas de coordinación motriz en la población infantil y adolescente (Cantell, Smyth y Ahonen, 1994; Gómez, 2004; Ruiz, Graupera, Gutiérrez y Miyahara, 2003; Sudgen y Chambers, 2005) donde abrocharse los botones de una camisa o correr de forma armónica puede ser todo un mundo lleno de dificultades y consecuencias sobre otras dimensiones del desarrollo (Ramón-Otero y Ruiz, 2015). Estos problemas han sido tratados por investigadores como una “dificultad oculta” (Gómez, Ruiz y Mata, 2006), cuya manifestación está presente en las actividades de la vida cotidiana, en contextos deportivos, en juegos y/o en la clase de Educación Física (Ruiz, 2004). La preocupación por estas dificultades se ha extendido a nivel internacional, creando todo un campo de investigación que estudia el diagnóstico de éstos problemas, conocido bajo las siglas DCD (Developmental Coordination Disorder). El presente estudio se centra en la etapa adolescente, periodo de transición entre la etapa infantil y adulta, caracterizada por numerosos cambios biológicos, cognitivos y socioemocionales (Santrock, 2005), que van a determinar la adaptación con el entorno (Gallahue, Ozmun y Goodway, 2011; Gómez, Ruiz, y Mata, 2006). El propósito principal del estudio es analizar el desarrollo de la coordinación motriz en la etapa adolescente investigando las diferencias de género y de edad en relación con variables psicosociales, los hábitos de práctica y las variables antropométricas. El diseño de la investigación se estructura en dos estudios. El primero de ellos, de carácter transversal, analizó una muestra representativa de 1.966 adolescentes de 1º a 4º de la ESO. El segundo, de naturaleza longitudinal, utilizó un grupo de 89 adolescentes del estudio transversal los cuales fueron estudiados durante 4 años, desde los 12 a los 15 años. Los mismos instrumentos fueron utilizados en ambos estudios: el Test Sportcomp para la evaluación de la coordinación motriz, el test AMPET4 para valorar la motivación de logro para el aprendizaje en Educación Física, el inventario HBSC para conocer los hábitos saludables sobre la práctica de actividad física y, por ultimo, se utilizó un estadiómetro para obtener el peso y la altura y así calcular el índice de masa corporal (IMC). La toma de datos del Estudio Transversal se realizó en 2 cursos académicos (2011/12 - 2012/13), en la cual se requirieron 3 sesiones coincidiendo con la clase de Educación Física. En la primera sesión, se evaluó la coordinación motriz. En la segunda se aplicaron los cuestionarios (AMPET4 y HBSC) y, en la última sesión se midió el peso y la altura en un espacio reservado al estadiómetro. El análisis de datos fue descriptivo y diferencial de cada una de las variables estudiadas: motoras, psicosociales, de hábitos de práctica de actividad física y antropométricas. Asimismo, se llevaron a cabo pruebas de análisis univariante y multivariante, calculando el valor-p y las pruebas de efecto. Respecto al Estudio Longitudinal, la toma de datos se llevó cabo durante 4 años desde el 2011 al 2014. La evaluación de la coordinación motriz se realizó en cada uno de los 4 años. Sin embargo, los 2 cuestionarios y las medidas antropométricas fueron evaluadas en el primer y cuarto año. Los análisis de datos fueron descriptivos y comparativos entre las variables analizadas. En el caso de la coordinación motriz, se realizaron las pruebas de medidas repetidas y, en el caso de las demás variables analizadas, se realizaron Prueba T para muestras relacionadas. Los resultados globales mostraron que el índice motor en el Estudio Transversal fue progresivo en el conjunto de chicos. Sin embargo, en las chicas, el rendimiento se estabiliza a partir de los 13 años. En el caso del Estudio Longitudinal, este índice se estabiliza en los 3 primeros años y a la edad de los 14, es cuando comienzan a acusarse las diferencias de género. En el caso de los hombres el rendimiento mejora y, por el contrario, en las mujeres empeora. En el Estudio Transversal, el análisis de varianza mostraron diferencias en función de la edad [F(7, 1958) = 220.70, p < .001; η2 = .101], del género [F(7, 1958) = 29.76, p < .001; η2 = .044], así como en la interacción entre ambos [F(7, 1958)= 11.90, p < .001; η2 = .018]. Únicamente aparecieron diferencias significativas con la edad en todos los grupos de hombres, excepto entre 14 y 15 años. En el Longitudinal, los contrastes multivariados mostraron que no hubo diferencias sgnificativas en el tiempo [F(3,85) = .05, p = .987, η2= .002] mostrando un nivel de coordinación estable a lo largo de los años, aunque existieron diferencias entre chicos y chicas [F(3,85) = 4.64 p = .005] con un tamaño de efecto destacable (η2 = .141). En cuanto a la motivación de logro para prender en Educación Física, en ambos estudios, los chicos fueron los que obtuvieron puntuaciones más elevadas en todas las dimensiones positivas del test (compromiso de aprendizaje, competencia autopercibida y comparada). Sin embargo, en la dimensión negativa del test, la referida a la ansiedad y al agobio ante el fracaso, fueron las chicas las que puntuaron más alto. En el Estudio Transversal, los resultados mostraron diferencias significativas en todas las dimensiones del AMPET4 en función del nivel de coordinación motriz: compromiso con el aprendizaje [F(2, 1644) = 8.66, p < .001; η2 = .010], competencia autopercibida [F(2, 1644) = 50.94, p < .001; η2 = .048], competencia comparada [F(2, 1644) = 41.56, p < .001, η2 = .020] y ansiedad [F(2, 1644) = 16.67, p < .001, η2 = .058]. En este sentido, los grupos de mejor nivel de coordinación motriz, fueron los que mayor puntuación obtuvieron en las dimensiones positivas y los que menor, en la negativa. En el Estudio Longitudinal, también se encontraron diferencias entre el primer y cuarto año de estudio en todas las dimensiones, excepto en competencia motriz autopercibida. Estas diferencias se tradujeron en una disminución en las 3 variables significativas del primer al cuarto año. Respecto al inventario HBSC, en el Estudio Longitudinal, la prueba T mostró únicamente la existencia de diferencias significativas entre el primer y cuarto año en 2 de los 11 ítems: percepción de la forma física (p = .006) y percepción de la salud (p = .047), los cuales disminuyeron en el intervalo de tiempo del estudio. En el Transversal, las diferencias se observaron en función del género (p < .001) y de la edad (p < .001). Asimismo, se mostraron diferencias significativas en todos los ítems respecto al nivel de coordinación motriz, excepto en 2 de ellos: frecuencia tiempo libre con los amigos fuera del colegio (p = .580) y facilidad para hacer amigos en el centro escolar (p = .098). Por último, en las variables antropométricas, los resultados del Estudio Transversal y Longitudinal coinciden tanto en la estatura como en el peso, apuntando, que en ambos estudios, se produce un aumento progresivo tanto en chicos como en chicas a medida que se avanza en edad. Concretamente en el Transversal, estas diferencias en la edad se encuentran en todos los grupos en ambos géneros, excepto en el conjunto de chicas entre los 14 y los 15 años. Asimismo, ambos estudios coincidieron en que tanto las ganancias en cm y kg, como las puntuaciones medias, fueron mayores en los chicos que en las chicas. Respecto al IMC, los 2 estudios coincidieron en que la evolución es paralela, y tal y como apuntan los resultados del Transversal, no se encontraron diferencias ni en la edad (p = 792) ni en el género (p = 284). No obstante, el Longitudinal apuntó únicamente diferencias significativas entre el primer y cuarto año en el conjunto de los hombres [t(41) = -4.01, p < .001]. Finalmente, y en relación con los niveles de coordinación motriz, hubo diferencias significativas en relación con el IMC (p = .012), mostrando como el grupo de peso normal coincide con puntuaciones óptimas de coordinación motriz. A modo de conclusiones, el presente estudio revela cómo la adquisición de un nivel de coordinación óptimo va a ser fundamental para el desarrollo psicosocial, para el desarrollo de hábitos saludables de práctica y para mantener un IMC dentro de la normalidad para el género y la edad. De esta manera, el desarrollo de la coordinación motriz será un aspecto fundamental para lograr un estado de bienestar físico y mental, y unos hábitos favorables para la práctica de actividad física. ABSTRACT In the past couple of decades, adolescence stage in motor coordination gained significant interest in research especially due to its sensitive and critical importance to achieving a healthy life style. These studies observed how to acquire optimum levels of coordination and motor competence, which proved crucial to the quality of the adolescent stage in addition to being influenced by other dimensions of development for each individual. Recent research shed light to an alarming set of data, which showed increased motor coordination problems in children and adolescents (Cantell, Smyth & Ahonen, 1994; Gómez, 2004; Ruiz, Graupera, Gutierrez & Miyahara, 2003; Sugden & Chambers, 2005). For instance, even to the extent that buttoning a shirt or running in a harmonic form can lead to a whole set of consequences and difficulties on the development stage. Researchers have addressed such problems in various studies such as “dificultad oculta” (Gomez, Ruiz & Mata, 2006), which literally translates as “hidden trouble”. The studies are evidently present in the activities of daily life, sporting contexts, games and/or Physical Education (Ruiz, 2004). Concern about these difficulties spread internationally, creating a whole framework research studying the diagnosis of these problems, known under the acronym DCD (Developmental Coordination Disorder). The study focuses on the adolescent stage, transition period between childhood and adulthood characterized by numerous biological, cognitive and socio-emotional changes (Santrock, 2005), which interestingly determines an individual´s adaptation to the environment (Gallahue, Ozmun & Goodway, 2011; Gomez, Ruiz & Mata, 2006). The main purpose of the study is to analyse the development of motor coordination in the adolescent stage investigating gender differences and age in relation to psychological variables, physical activity habits and anthropometric variables. The research design is structured in two studies. The first (transversal nature), analyses a representative sample of 1,966 adolescents from 1st to 4th of Secondary Education School. The second (longitudinal nature) used a group of 89 teenagers from cross-sectional study, which were studied for four years, from 12 to 15 years. The same instruments were used in both studies, namely; “Sportcomp Test” used to evaluate of motor coordination; “AMPET4 Test” which assesses the motivational achievement of learning Physical Education; “HBSC Inventory” to find out the healthy habits gained from physical activities; And finally a “stadiometer” was used to obtain the weight and height and thus calculate the body mass index (BMI). The data collection of the cross-sectional Study was conducted in two academic years (2011/12 - 2012/13), in which 3 sessions coinciding with the Physical Education level are required. In the first session, motor coordination was evaluated; questionnaires were applied in the second session (AMPET4 and HBSC); and in the last session the weight and height were measured in a reserved space for the “stadiometer”. Notably, data analysis was descriptive and differential in each of the variable studies: motor, psychological, practical and anthropometric habits of physical activity. Thus the tests were conducted in a univariate and multivariate analysis, calculating the p-value and effect tests. Regarding the Longitudinal Study, data collection was carried out during four years from 2011 to 2014 inclusively. The assessment of motor coordination was performed on each of the four years, however, the 2 questionnaires and anthropometric measures were evaluated in the first and fourth year. Data analyses were also descriptive and comparative among the variables that were put to the test. In the case of motor coordination tests, they were done on repeated measures, whilst, in the case of other variables analysed, they were accomplished through T Tests under comparable samples. The overall results showed that the engine Motor Index in Study 1 was progressive in all male gender studies, however in the females the performance remained constant after reaching 13 years of age. For the Longitudinal Study, this index is stabilized in the first 3 years and at the age of 14 is when the gender differences take place. In the case of males, the performance improves, however, in females worsens. The cross-sectional Study, analysis of variance showed differences in terms of age [F(7, 1958) = 220.70, p < .001; η2 = .101], gender [F(7, 1958) = 29.76, p <.001; η2 = .044], as well as their interaction [F(7, 1958) = 11.90, p <.001; η2 = .018]. They only show significant differences in respect to age in the male set sample, in all groups except between 14 and 15 years old. In the Longitudinal, the multivariate contrasts showed no significant differences in time [F(3,85) = 0.05, p = 0.987, η2 = 0.002] showing a stable level of coordination over the years, but if there were differences between both genders [F(3,85) = 4.64, p = .005] it took place with a noteworthy effect size (η2 = .141). In regards, to the Motivational Achievement for learning Physical Education, in both studies the male sample administered obtained higher scores on all the positive dimensions of the test (commitment to learning, self-assessed competence, and comparable competence). However, on the negative assessment side, namely, anxiety and fear of failure, the female sample scored higher than the male one. In Study 1, the multivariate analysis showed significant differences between the psychosocial dimensions and levels of motor coordination with moderate to significant effect [Lambada de Wilks = .931, F(8, 3282) = 14.99; p = <0.001; η2 = .035]. By the same token, the groups with the best level of motor coordination were the highest scoring ones in the positive dimensions, whilst the lower performing ones, performed better in the negative dimension. In the longitudinal study, there is also differences were also found between the first and fourth years of study in all dimensions, except in self-perceived motor competition. These differences resulted in a significant decrease in the 3 variables from first to fourth year. Regarding, the “HBSC Inventory”, the T test in the longitudinal study showed uniquely the existence of significant differences between the first and fourth year in 2 of the 11 items: perception of physical fitness (p = .006) and perceived health (p = 047), which diminished in the interval time of the study. In the Cross-sectional study, the se differences were also observed in gender (p < .001) and age (p < .001). Similarly, they showed significant differences in all items in respect to the motor coordination level, except in 2 of them; frequency of free time with friends outside of school (p = .580) and the ease to make friends at the educational centre (p = 098). And last but not least, the anthropometric variables, both the results of the Transversal and Longitudinal Study matched both height and weight, pointing out that in both studies a gradual increase in both genders, as they grow older. Notably in the Cross-sectional, these differences in age are found in all groups in both genders, except for the set of girls between 14 and 15 years. Thus both studies concluded that both gains in cm and kg and the mean scores were higher amongst males compared to females. Regarding BMI, the 2 studies concluded that the evolution is parallel, and as pointed cross-sectional study there isn’t differences found in age (p = 792) or in gender (p = 284). However, the Longitudinal study uniquely shows significant difference between the first and fourth year for male set sample [t (41) = -4.01, p < .001]. Finally, in relation to levels of motor coordination, there were significant differences in relation to BMI (p = .012), showing how the “normal weight group” matches the optimal scores of motor coordination. In conclusion, this study reveals how the acquisition of an optimal level of coordination is vital for psychological development, to develop and practice healthy habits, and to maintain a BMI within the normal range for age and gender. Therefore, the development of motor coordination is fundamental to achieving a state of physical and mental wellbeing, and preferable habits to pursuing physical activity.

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Nitrogen (N) is an important nutrient for melon (Cucumis melo L.) production. However there is scanty information about the amount necessary to maintain an appropriate balance between growth and yield. Melon vegetative organs must develop sufficiently to intercept light and accumulate water and nutrients but it is also important to obtain a large reproductive-vegetative dry weight ratio to maximize the fruit yield. We evaluated the influence of different N amounts on the growth, production of dry matter and fruit yield of a melon ‘Piel de sapo’ type. A three-year field experiment was carried out from May to September. Melons were subjected to an irrigation depth of 100% crop evapotranspiration and to 11 N fertilization rates, ranging 11 to 393 kg ha –1 in the three years. The dry matter production of leaves and stems increased as the N amount increased. The dry matter of the whole plant was affected similarly, while the fruit dry matter decreased as the N amount was increased above 112, 93 and 95 kg ha –1 , in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The maximum Leaf Area Index (LAI), 3.1, was obtained at 393 kg ha –1 of N. The lowest N supply reduced the fruit yield by 21%, while the highest increased the vegetative growth, LAI and Leaf Area Duration (LAD), but reduced yield by 24% relative to the N93 treatment. Excessive applications of N increase vegetative growth at the expense of reproductive growth. For this melon type, rates about 90-100 kg ha –1 of N are sufficient for adequate plant growth, development and maximum production. To obtain fruit yield close to the maximum, the leaf N concentration at the end of the crop cycle should be higher than 19.5 g kg –1

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Reducing the gap between water-limited potential yield and actual yield in oil palm production systems through intensification is seen as an important option for sustainably increasing palm oil production. Simulation models can play an important role in quantifying water-limited potential yield, and therefore the scope for intensification, but no oil palm model exists that is both simple enough and at the same time incorporates sufficient plant physiological knowledge to be generally applicable across sites with different growing conditions. The objectives of this study therefore were to develop a model (PALMSIM) that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation and to evaluate model performance against measured oil palm yields under optimal water and nutrient management for a range of sites across Indonesia and Malaysia. The maximum observed yield in the field matches the corresponding simulated yield for dry bunch weight with a RMSE of 1.7 Mg ha?1 year?1 against an observed yield of 18.8 Mg ha?1. Sensitivity analysis showed that PALMSIM is robust: simulated changes in yield caused by modifying the parameters by 10% are comparable to other tree crop model evaluations. While we acknowledge that, depending on the soils and climatic environment, yields may be often water limited, we suggest a relatively simple physiological approach to simulate potential yield, which can be usefully applied to high rainfall environments and is considered as a first step in developing an oil palm model that also simulates water-limited potential yield. To illustrate the application possibil- ities of the model, PALMSIM was used to create a potential yield map for Indonesia and Malaysia by sim- ulating the growth and yield at a resolution of 0.1?. This map of potential yield is considered as a first step towards a decision support tool that can identify potentially productive, but at the moment degraded sites in Indonesia and Malaysia. ?

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In Spain, large quantities of wine are produced every year (3,339,700 tonnes in 2011) (FAO, 2011) with the consequent waste generation. During the winemaking process, solid residues like grape stalks are generated, as well as grape marc and wine lees as by-products. According to the Council Regulation (EC) 1493/1999 on the common organization of the wine market, by-products coming from the winery industry must be sent to alcohol-distilleries to generate exhausted grape marc and vinasses. With an adequate composting treatment, these wastes can be applied to soils as a source of nutrients and organic matter. A three-year field experiment (2011, 2012 and 2013) was carried out in Ciudad Real (central Spain) to study the effects of wine-distillery waste compost application in a melon crop (Cucumis melo L.). Melon crop has been traditionally cultivated in this area with high inputs of water and fertilizers, but no antecedents of application of winery wastes are known. In a randomized complete block design, four treatments were compared: three compost doses consisted of 6.7 (D1), 13.3 (D2) and 20 t compost ha-1 (D3), and a control treatment without compost addition (D0). The soil was a shallow sandy-loam (Petrocalcic Palexeralfs) with a depth of 0.60 m and a discontinuous petrocalcic horizon between 0.60 and 0.70 m, slightly basic (pH 8.4), poor in organic matter (0.24%), rich in potassium (410 ppm) and with a medium level of phosphorus (22.1 ppm). During each growing period four harvests were carried out and total and marketable yield (fruits weighting <1 kg or visually rotten were not considered), fruit average weight and fruit number per plant were determined. At the end of the crop cycle, four plants per treatment were sampled and the nutrient content (N, P and K) was determined. Soil samplings (0-30 cm depth) were carried before the application of compost and at the end of each growing season and available N and P, as well as exchangeable K content were analyzed. With this information, an integrated analysis was carried out with the aim to evaluate the suitability of this compost as organic amendment.