Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Aircraft trajectory simulator using a three degrees of freedom aircraft point mass model

Aircraft Operators Companies (AOCs) are always willing to keep the cost of a flight as low as possible. These costs could be modelled using a function of the fuel consumption, time of flight and fixed cost (over flight cost, maintenance, etc.). These are strongly dependant on the atmospheric conditions, the presence of winds and the aircraft performance. For this reason, much research effort is being put in the development of numerical and graphical techniques for defining the optimal trajectory. This paper presents a different approach to accommodate AOCs preferences, adding value to their activities, through the development of a tool, called aircraft trajectory simulator. This tool is able to simulate the actual flight of an aircraft with the constraints imposed. The simulator is based on a point mass model of the aircraft. The aim of this paper is to evaluate 3DoF aircraft model errors with BADA data through real data from Flight Data Recorder FDR. Therefore, to validate the proposed simulation tool a comparative analysis of the state variables vector is made between an actual flight and the same flight using the simulator. Finally, an example of a cruise phase is presented, where a conventional levelled flight is compared with a continuous climb flight. The comparison results show the potential benefits of following user-preferred routes for commercial flights.

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal profiles within future 4D trajectory management

The use of barometric altimetry is to some extent a limiting factor on safety, predictability and efficiency of aircraft operations, and reduces the potential of the trajectory based operations capabilities. However, geometric altimetry could be used to improve all of these aspects. Nowadays aircraft altitude is estimated by applying the International Standard Atmosphere which differs from real altitude. At different temperatures for an assigned barometric altitude, aerodynamic forces are different and this has a direct relationship with time, fuel consumption and range of the flight. The study explores the feasibility of using sensors providing geometric reference altitude, in particular, to supply capabilities for the optimization of vertical profiles and also, their impact on the vertical Air Traffic Management separation assurance processes. One of the aims of the thesis is to assess if geometric altitude fulfils the aeronautical requirements through existing sensors. Also the thesis will elaborate on the advantages of geometric altitude over the barometric altitude in terms of efficiency for vertical navigation. The evidence that geometric altitude is the best choice to improve the efficiency in vertical profile and aircraft capacity by reducing vertical uncertainties will also be shown. In this paper, an atmospheric study is presented, as well as the impact of temperature deviation from International Standard Atmosphere model is analyzed in order to obtain relationship between geometric and barometric altitude. Furthermore, an aircraft model to study aircraft vertical profile is provided to analyse trajectories based on geometric altitudes.

AR drone identification and navigation control at CVG-UPM

This article presents the proposal of the Computer Vision Group to the first phase of the international competition “Concurso de Ingeniería de Control 2012, Control Aut ́onomo del seguimiento de trayectorias de un vehículo cuatrirrotor”. This phase consists mainly of two parts: identifying a model and designing a trajectory controller for the AR Drone quadrotor. For the identification task, two models are proposed: a simplified model that captures only the main dynamics of the quadrotor, and a second model based on the physical laws underlying the AR Drone behavior. The trajectory controller design is based on the simplified model, whereas the physical model is used to tune the controller to attain a certain level of robust stability to model uncertainties. The controller design is simplified by the hypothesis that accurate positions sensors will be available to implement a feedback controller.

Adaptive control system based on lineal control theory for the path-following problem of a car-like mobile robot

The objective of this paper is to design a path following control system for a car-like mobile robot using classical linear control techniques, so that it adapts on-line to varying conditions during the trajectory following task. The main advantages of the proposed control structure is that well known linear control theory can be applied in calculating the PID controllers to full control requirements, while at the same time it is exible to be applied in non-linear changing conditions of the path following task. For this purpose the Frenet frame kinematic model of the robot is linearised at a varying working point that is calculated as a function of the actual velocity, the path curvature and kinematic parameters of the robot, yielding a transfer function that varies during the trajectory. The proposed controller is formed by a combination of an adaptive PID and a feed-forward controller, which varies accordingly with the working conditions and compensates the non-linearity of the system. The good features and exibility of the proposed control structure have been demonstrated through realistic simulations that include both kinematics and dynamics of the car-like robot.

Robust control of underactuated wheeled mobile manipulators using GPI disturbance observers

This article describes the design of a linear observer–linear controller-based robust output feedback scheme for output reference trajectory tracking tasks in the case of nonlinear, multivariable, nonholonomic underactuated mobile manipulators. The proposed linear feedback scheme is based on the use of a classical linear feedback controller and suitably extended, high-gain, linear Generalized Proportional Integral (GPI) observers, thus aiding the linear feedback controllers to provide an accurate simultaneous estimation of each flat output associated phase variables and of the exogenous and perturbation inputs. This information is used in the proposed feedback controller in (a) approximate, yet close, cancelations, as lumped unstructured time-varying terms, of the influence of the highly coupled nonlinearities, and (b) the devising of proper linear output feedback control laws based on the approximate estimates of the string of phase variables associated with the flat outputs simultaneously provided by the disturbance observers. Simulations reveal the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal trajectories within the future 4d trajectory management

Over the past few years, the common practice within air traffic management has been that commercial aircraft fly by following a set of predefined routes to reach their destination. Currently, aircraft operators are requesting more flexibility to fly according to their prefer- ences, in order to achieve their business objectives. Due to this reason, much research effort is being invested in developing different techniques which evaluate aircraft optimal trajectory and traffic synchronisation. Also, the inefficient use of the airspace using barometric altitude overall in the landing and takeoff phases or in Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) trajectories where currently it is necessary introduce the necessary reference setting (QNH or QFE). To solve this problem and to permit a better airspace management born the interest of this research. Where the main goals will be to evaluate the impact, weakness and strength of the use of geometrical altitude instead of the use of barometric altitude. Moreover, this dissertation propose the design a simplified trajectory simulator which is able to predict aircraft trajectories. The model is based on a three degrees of freedom aircraft point mass model that can adapt aircraft performance data from Base of Aircraft Data, and meteorological information. A feature of this trajectory simulator is to support the improvement of the strategic and pre-tactical trajectory planning in the future Air Traffic Management. To this end, the error of the tool (aircraft Trajectory Simulator) is measured by comparing its performance variables with actual flown trajectories obtained from Flight Data Recorder information. The trajectory simulator is validated by analysing the performance of different type of aircraft and considering different routes. A fuel consumption estimation error was identified and a correction is proposed for each type of aircraft model. In the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, the trajectory becomes the fundamental element of a new set of operating procedures collectively referred to as Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO). Thus, governmental institutions, academia, and industry have shown a renewed interest for the application of trajectory optimisation techniques in com- mercial aviation. The trajectory optimisation problem can be solved using optimal control methods. In this research we present and discuss the existing methods for solving optimal control problems focusing on direct collocation, which has received recent attention by the scientific community. In particular, two families of collocation methods are analysed, i.e., Hermite-Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto collocation and the pseudospectral collocation. They are first compared based on a benchmark case study: the minimum fuel trajectory problem with fixed arrival time. For the sake of scalability to more realistic problems, the different meth- ods are also tested based on a real Airbus 319 El Cairo-Madrid flight. Results show that pseudospectral collocation, which has shown to be numerically more accurate and computa- tionally much faster, is suitable for the type of problems arising in trajectory optimisation with application to ATM. Fast and accurate optimal trajectory can contribute properly to achieve the new challenges of the future ATM. As atmosphere uncertainties are one of the most important issues in the trajectory plan- ning, the final objective of this dissertation is to have a magnitude order of how different is the fuel consumption under different atmosphere condition. Is important to note that in the strategic phase planning the optimal trajectories are determined by meteorological predictions which differ from the moment of the flight. The optimal trajectories have shown savings of at least 500 [kg] in the majority of the atmosphere condition (different pressure, and temperature at Mean Sea Level, and different lapse rate temperature) with respect to the conventional procedure simulated at the same atmosphere condition.This results show that the implementation of optimal profiles are beneficial under the current Air traffic Management (ATM).

Control of a Teleoperation System by State Convergence with Variable Time Delay

In this paper, we propose a novel control scheme for bilateral teleoperation of n degree-of-freedom (DOF) nonlinear robotic systems with time-varying communication delay. We consider that the human operator contains a constant force on the local manipulator. The local and remote manipulators are coupled using state convergence control scheme. By choosing a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, we show that the local-remote teleoperation system is asymptotically stable. It is also shown that, in the case of reliable communication protocols, the proposed scheme guarantees that the remote manipulator tracks the delayed trajectory of the local manipulator. The time delay of communication channel is assumed to be unknown and randomly time varying, but the upper bounds of the delay interval and the derivative of the delay are assumed to be known.

Using the Cross-Entropy Method for Control Optimization: A Case Study of See-and-Avoid on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

This paper presents an adaptation of the Cross-Entropy (CE) method to optimize fuzzy logic controllers. The CE is a recently developed optimization method based on a general Monte-Carlo approach to combinatorial and continuous multi-extremal optimization and importance sampling. This work shows the application of this optimization method to optimize the inputs gains, the location and size of the different membership functions' sets of each variable, as well as the weight of each rule from the rule's base of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC). The control system approach presented in this work was designed to command the orientation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to modify its trajectory for avoiding collisions. An onboard looking forward camera was used to sense the environment of the UAV. The information extracted by the image processing algorithm is the only input of the fuzzy control approach to avoid the collision with a predefined object. Real tests with a quadrotor have been done to corroborate the improved behavior of the optimized controllers at different stages of the optimization process.