Outsourcing and acquisition models comparison related to IT supplier selection decision analysis

This paper presents a comparison of acquisition models related to decision analysis of IT supplier selection. The main standards are: Capability Maturity Model Integration for Acquisition (CMMI-ACQ), ISO / IEC 12207 Information Technology / Software Life Cycle Processes, IEEE 1062 Recommended Practice for Software Acquisition, the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guide. The objective of this paper is to compare the previous models to find the advantages and disadvantages of them for the future development of a decision model for IT supplier selection.

Comparison of several models for calculating ozone stomatal fluxes on a Mediterranean wheat cultivar (Triticum durum Desf. cv. Camacho)

Ozone stomatal fluxes were modeled for a 3-year period following different approaches for a commercial variety of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf. cv. Camacho) at the phenological stage of anthesis. All models performed in the same range, although not all of them afforded equally significant results. Nevertheless, all of them suggest that stomatal conductance would account for the main percentage of ozone deposition fluxes. A new modeling approach was tested, based on a 3-D architectural model of the wheat canopy, and fairly accurate results were obtained. Plant species-specific measurements, as well as measurements of stomatal conductance and environmental parameters, were required. The method proposed for calculating ozone stomatal fluxes (FO(3_3-D)) from experimental gs data and modeling them as a function of certain environmental parameters in conjunction with the use of the YPLANT model seems to be adequate, providing realistic estimates of the canopy FO(3_3-D), integrating and not neglecting the contribution of the lower leaves with respect to the flag leaf, although a further development of this model is needed.

Comparison of methods for downscaling runoff from regional climate models in Spanish basins

At present there is much literature that refers to the advantages and disadvantages of different methods of statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate variables projected by climate models. Less attention has been paid to other indirect variables, like runoff, which play a significant role in evaluating the impact of climate change on hydrological systems. Runoff presents a much greater bias in climate models than other climate variables, like temperature or precipitation. It is very important to identify the methods that minimize bias while downscaling runoff from the gridded results of climate models to the basin scale

Simulation tools for statistical model comparison: an application to unobserved componenet models versus dynamic regression models

Aplicación de simulación de Monte Carlo y técnicas de Análisis de la Varianza (ANOVA) a la comparación de modelos estocásticos dinámicos para accidentes de tráfico.

Comparison of turbulence models for the computational fluid dynamics simulation of wind turbine wakes in the atmospheric boundary layer

An elliptic computational fluid dynamics wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate a wind turbine, approximated by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, is applied on an incoming non-uniform shear flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded with the exerted forces estimated as a function of the incident wind speed, thrust coefficient and rotor diameter. The model is assessed in terms of wind speed deficit and added turbulence intensity for different turbulence models and is validated from experimental measurements of the Sexbierum wind turbine experiment.

CFD modelling of the interaction between the Surface Boundary Layer and rotor wake. Comparison of results obtained with different turbulence models and mesh strategies

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming non-uniform flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is tested under different parameterizations of turbulence models and validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit and turbulence intensity.

Comparison of particle dispersion obtained with simple stochastic models and les in pipe flow

A hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is employed to simulate heavy particle dispersion in turbulent pipe flow. The mean flow is provided by the Eulerian simulations developed by mean of JetCode, whereas the fluid fluctuations seen by particles are prescribed by a stochastic differential equation based on normalized Langevin. The statistics of particle velocity are compared to LES data which contain detailed statistics of velocity for particles with diameter equal to 20.4 µm. The model is in good agreement with the LES data for axial mean velocity whereas rms of axial and radial velocities should be adjusted.

Comparison of numerical models for vibro-acoustic analysis of structural panels in low modal density range engaging air layers

During launch, satellite and their equipment are subjected to loads of random nature and with a wide frequency range. Their vibro-acoustic response is an important issue to be analysed, for example for folded solar arrays and antennas. The main issue at low modal density is the modelling combinations engaging air layers, structures and external fluid. Depending on the modal density different methodologies, as FEM, BEM and SEA should be considered. This work focuses on the analysis of different combinations of the methodologies previously stated used in order to characterise the vibro-acoustic response of two rectangular sandwich structure panels isolated and engaging an air layer between them under a diffuse acoustic field. Focusing on the modelling of air layers, different models are proposed. To illustrate the phenomenology described and studied, experimental results from an acoustic test on an ARA-MKIII solar array in folded configuration are presented along with numerical results.

Dynamic topic-based adaptation of language models: a comparison between different approaches

This paper presents a dynamic LM adaptation based on the topic that has been identified on a speech segment. We use LSA and the given topic labels in the training dataset to obtain and use the topic models. We propose a dynamic language model adaptation to improve the recognition performance in "a two stages" AST system. The final stage makes use of the topic identification with two variants: the first on uses just the most probable topic and the other one depends on the relative distances of the topics that have been identified. We perform the adaptation of the LM as a linear interpolation between a background model and topic-based LM. The interpolation weight id dynamically adapted according to different parameters. The proposed method is evaluated on the Spanish partition of the EPPS speech database. We achieved a relative reduction in WER of 11.13% over the baseline system which uses a single blackground LM.

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

In situ acoustic methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of oriented strand board

Following the success achieved in previous research projects usin non-destructive methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of particle and fibre boards, this paper studies the relationships between aging, physical and mechanical changes, using non-destructive measurements of oriented strand board (OSB). 184 pieces of OSB board from a French source were tested to analyze its actual physical and mechanical properties. The same properties were estimated using acoustic non-destructive methods (ultrasound and stress wave velocity) during a physical laboratory aging test. Measurements were recorded of propagation wave velocity with the sensors aligned, edge to edge, and forming an angle of 45 degrees, with both sensors on the same face of the board. This is because aligned measures are not possible on site. The velocity results are always higher in 45 degree measurements. Given the results of statistical analysis, it can be concluded that there is a strong relationship between acoustic measurements and the decline in physical and mechanical properties of the panels due to aging. The authors propose several models to estimate the physical and mechanical properties of board, as well as their degree of aging. The best results are obtained using ultrasound, although the difference in comparison with the stress wave method is not very significant. A reliable prediction of the degree of deterioration (aging) of board is presented.

Service needs forecasting: an approach for the automotive industry using analogies with medical ER management models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, car makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper establishes a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER.

SERVICE NEEDS FORECASTING: An Approach for the Motor Industry Using Analogies with Medical ER Management Models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, motor makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper ratify a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Comparison of dynamic effects of high-speed traffic load on ballasted track using a simplified two-dimensional and full three-dimensional model.

The vertical dynamic actions transmitted by railway vehicles to the ballasted track infrastructure is evaluated taking into account models with different degree of detail. In particular, we have studied this matter from a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model to a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) multi-body finite element model. The vehicle and track are coupled via a non-linear Hertz contact mechanism. The method of Lagrange multipliers is used for the contact constraint enforcement between wheel and rail. Distributed elevation irregularities are generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions which are taken into account for the interaction. The numerical simulations are performed in the time domain, using a direct integration method for solving the transient problem due to the contact nonlinearities. The results obtained include contact forces, forces transmitted to the infrastructure (sleeper) by railpads and envelopes of relevant results for several track irregularities and speed ranges. The main contribution of this work is to identify and discuss coincidences and differences between discrete 2D models and continuum 3D models, as wheel as assessing the validity of evaluating the dynamic loading on the track with simplified 2D models