Estimadores bayesianos de la fiabilidad con muestreo censurado

El estudio de la fiabilidad de componentes y sistemas tiene gran importancia en diversos campos de la ingenieria, y muy concretamente en el de la informatica. Al analizar la duracion de los elementos de la muestra hay que tener en cuenta los elementos que no fallan en el tiempo que dure el experimento, o bien los que fallen por causas distintas a la que es objeto de estudio. Por ello surgen nuevos tipos de muestreo que contemplan estos casos. El mas general de ellos, el muestreo censurado, es el que consideramos en nuestro trabajo. En este muestreo tanto el tiempo hasta que falla el componente como el tiempo de censura son variables aleatorias. Con la hipotesis de que ambos tiempos se distribuyen exponencialmente, el profesor Hurt estudio el comportamiento asintotico del estimador de maxima verosimilitud de la funcion de fiabilidad. En principio parece interesante utilizar metodos Bayesianos en el estudio de la fiabilidad porque incorporan al analisis la informacion a priori de la que se dispone normalmente en problemas reales. Por ello hemos considerado dos estimadores Bayesianos de la fiabilidad de una distribucion exponencial que son la media y la moda de la distribucion a posteriori. Hemos calculado la expansion asint6tica de la media, varianza y error cuadratico medio de ambos estimadores cuando la distribuci6n de censura es exponencial. Hemos obtenido tambien la distribucion asintotica de los estimadores para el caso m3s general de que la distribucion de censura sea de Weibull. Dos tipos de intervalos de confianza para muestras grandes se han propuesto para cada estimador. Los resultados se han comparado con los del estimador de maxima verosimilitud, y con los de dos estimadores no parametricos: limite producto y Bayesiano, resultando un comportamiento superior por parte de uno de nuestros estimadores. Finalmente nemos comprobado mediante simulacion que nuestros estimadores son robustos frente a la supuesta distribuci6n de censura, y que uno de los intervalos de confianza propuestos es valido con muestras pequenas. Este estudio ha servido tambien para confirmar el mejor comportamiento de uno de nuestros estimadores. SETTING OUT AND SUMMARY OF THE THESIS When we study the lifetime of components it's necessary to take into account the elements that don't fail during the experiment, or those that fail by reasons which are desirable to exclude from consideration. The model of random censorship is very usefull for analysing these data. In this model the time to failure and the time censor are random variables. We obtain two Bayes estimators of the reliability function of an exponential distribution based on randomly censored data. We have calculated the asymptotic expansion of the mean, variance and mean square error of both estimators, when the censor's distribution is exponential. We have obtained also the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the more general case of censor's Weibull distribution. Two large-sample confidence bands have been proposed for each estimator. The results have been compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator, and with those of two non parametric estimators: Product-limit and Bayesian. One of our estimators has the best behaviour. Finally we have shown by simulation, that our estimators are robust against the assumed censor's distribution, and that one of our intervals does well in small sample situation.

The Risk of Using the Q Heterogeneity Estimator for Software Engineering Experiments

All meta-analyses should include a heterogeneity analysis. Even so, it is not easy to decide whether a set of studies are homogeneous or heterogeneous because of the low statistical power of the statistics used (usually the Q test). Objective: Determine a set of rules enabling SE researchers to find out, based on the characteristics of the experiments to be aggregated, whether or not it is feasible to accurately detect heterogeneity. Method: Evaluate the statistical power of heterogeneity detection methods using a Monte Carlo simulation process. Results: The Q test is not powerful when the meta-analysis contains up to a total of about 200 experimental subjects and the effect size difference is less than 1. Conclusions: The Q test cannot be used as a decision-making criterion for meta-analysis in small sample settings like SE. Random effects models should be used instead of fixed effects models. Caution should be exercised when applying Q test-mediated decomposition into subgroups.

STC power for 15MW of PV comparing nameplate, initial power and power after 4 years

To date, the majority of quality controls performed at PV plants are based on the measurement of a small sample of individual modules. Consequently, there is very little representative data on the real Standard Test Conditions (STC) power output values for PV generators. This paper presents the power output values for more than 1300 PV generators having a total installed power capacity of almost 15.3 MW. The values were obtained by the INGEPER-UPNA group, in collaboration with the IES-UPM, through a study to monitor the power output of a number of PV plants from 2006 to 2009. This work has made it possible to determine, amongst other things, the power dispersion that can be expected amongst generators made by different manufacturers, amongst generators made by the same manufacturer but comprising modules of different nameplate ratings and also amongst generators formed by modules with the same characteristics. The work also analyses the STC power output evolution over time in the course of this 4-year study. The values presented here could be considered to be representative of generators with fault-free modules.

Effects of binaural stimulation in attention and EEG

When two pure tones of slightly different frequency are presented separately to each ear, the listener perceives a third single tone with amplitude variations at a frequency that equals the difference between the two tones, this perceptual illusion is known as binaural auditory beat. There are anecdotal reports that suggest that the binaural beat can entrain EEG activity and may affect the arousal levels, although few studies have been published. There is a need for double-blind, well-designed studies in order to establish a solid foundation for these sounds, as most of the documented benefits come from self-reported cases that could be affected by placebo effect. As BB’s are a cheap technology (it even exists a free open source programmable bin aural-beat generator on the internet named Gnaural), any achievement in this area could be of public interest. The aim in our research was to explore the potential of BB’s in a particular field: tasks that require focus and concentration. In order to detect changes in the brain waves that could relate to any particular improvement, EEG recordings of a small sample of individuals were also obtained. In this study we compare the effect of different binaural stimulation in 7 EEG frequency ranges, 78 participants were exposed to 20 min binaural beat stimulation. The effects were obtained both qualitative with cognitive test and quantitative with EEG analysis. Results suggest no significant statistical improvement in 20 min stimulation.

Effect of binaural stimulation on attention and EEG

When two pure tones of slightly different frequency are presented separately to each ear, the listener perceives a third single tone with amplitude variations at a frequency that equals the difference between the two tones; this perceptual illusion is known as the binaural auditory beat (BB). There are anecdotal reports that suggest that the binaural beat can entrain EEG activity and may affect the arousal levels, although few studies have been published. There is a need for double-blind, well-designed studies in order to establish a solid foundation for these sounds, as most of the documented benefits come from self-reported cases that could be affected by placebo effect. As BBs are a cheap technology (it even exists a free open source programmable binaural- beat generator on the Internet named Gnaural), any achievement in this area could be of public interest. The aim in our research was to explore the potential of BBs in a particular field: tasks that require focus and concentration. In order to detect changes in the brain waves that could relate to any particular improvement, EEG recordings of a small sample of individuals were also obtained. In this study we compare the effect of different binaural stimulation in 7 EEG frequency ranges. 78 participants were exposed to 20-min binaural beat stimulation. The effects were obtained both quali- tative with cognitive test and quantitative with EEG analysis. Results suggest no significant statistical improvement in 20-min stimulation.

Mathematical modelling of pyrotechnic shock in the Ariane 5 VEB structure

The theoretical improvements performed since the last spacecraft and mechanical testing conference on the study of the pyrotechnic shock phenomena produced during the separation of the lower stage of the Ariane 5 Vehicle Equipment Bay (VEB) structure are described. The first theoretical approach used was based on the wave propagation method, including axial and shear waves. The method was changed, in order to capture the bending effects, as well as the influence of the frequency dependent damping values. In addition to the development of the theoretical method, efforts were made to improve the criteria used to model the structure. Comparison of the theoretical predictions with the test results of a flat test sample 1 m width, as well as a preliminary test performed on a small sample, are presented.

Effectiveness for Ddtecting faults within and outside the scope of testing techniques: an independent replication

The verification and validation activity plays a fundamental role in improving software quality. Determining which the most effective techniques for carrying out this activity are has been an aspiration of experimental software engineering researchers for years. This paper reports a controlled experiment evaluating the effectiveness of two unit testing techniques (the functional testing technique known as equivalence partitioning (EP) and the control-flow structural testing technique known as branch testing (BT)). This experiment is a literal replication of Juristo et al. (2013).Both experiments serve the purpose of determining whether the effectiveness of BT and EP varies depending on whether or not the faults are visible for the technique (InScope or OutScope, respectively). We have used the materials, design and procedures of the original experiment, but in order to adapt the experiment to the context we have: (1) reduced the number of studied techniques from 3 to 2; (2) assigned subjects to experimental groups by means of stratified randomization to balance the influence of programming experience; (3) localized the experimental materials and (4) adapted the training duration. We ran the replication at the Escuela Politécnica del Ejército Sede Latacunga (ESPEL) as part of a software verification & validation course. The experimental subjects were 23 master?s degree students. EP is more effective than BT at detecting InScope faults. The session/program andgroup variables are found to have significant effects. BT is more effective than EP at detecting OutScope faults. The session/program and group variables have no effect in this case. The results of the replication and the original experiment are similar with respect to testing techniques. There are some inconsistencies with respect to the group factor. They can be explained by small sample effects. The results for the session/program factor are inconsistent for InScope faults.We believe that these differences are due to a combination of the fatigue effect and a technique x program interaction. Although we were able to reproduce the main effects, the changes to the design of the original experiment make it impossible to identify the causes of the discrepancies for sure. We believe that further replications closely resembling the original experiment should be conducted to improve our understanding of the phenomena under study.

Analysis of pattern recognition and dimensionality reduction techniques for odor biometrics

In this paper, we analyze the performance of several well-known pattern recognition and dimensionality reduction techniques when applied to mass-spectrometry data for odor biometric identification. Motivated by the successful results of previous works capturing the odor from other parts of the body, this work attempts to evaluate the feasibility of identifying people by the odor emanated from the hands. By formulating this task according to a machine learning scheme, the problem is identified with a small-sample-size supervised classification problem in which the input data is formed by mass spectrograms from the hand odor of 13 subjects captured in different sessions. The high dimensionality of the data makes it necessary to apply feature selection and extraction techniques together with a simple classifier in order to improve the generalization capabilities of the model. Our experimental results achieve recognition rates over 85% which reveals that there exists discriminatory information in the hand odor and points at body odor as a promising biometric identifier.

Effectiveness for detecting faults within and outside the scope of testing techniques: an independent replication

The verification and validation activity plays a fundamental role in improving software quality. Determining which the most effective techniques for carrying out this activity are has been an aspiration of experimental software engineering researchers for years. This paper reports a controlled experiment evaluating the effectiveness of two unit testing techniques (the functional testing technique known as equivalence partitioning (EP) and the control-flow structural testing technique known as branch testing (BT)). This experiment is a literal replication of Juristo et al. (2013). Both experiments serve the purpose of determining whether the effectiveness of BT and EP varies depending on whether or not the faults are visible for the technique (InScope or OutScope, respectively). We have used the materials, design and procedures of the original experiment, but in order to adapt the experiment to the context we have: (1) reduced the number of studied techniques from 3 to 2; (2) assigned subjects to experimental groups by means of stratified randomization to balance the influence of programming experience; (3) localized the experimental materials and (4) adapted the training duration. We ran the replication at the Escuela Polite?cnica del Eje?rcito Sede Latacunga (ESPEL) as part of a software verification & validation course. The experimental subjects were 23 master?s degree students. EP is more effective than BT at detecting InScope faults. The session/program and group variables are found to have significant effects. BT is more effective than EP at detecting OutScope faults. The session/program and group variables have no effect in this case. The results of the replication and the original experiment are similar with respect to testing techniques. There are some inconsistencies with respect to the group factor. They can be explained by small sample effects. The results for the session/program factor are inconsistent for InScope faults. We believe that these differences are due to a combination of the fatigue effect and a technique x program interaction. Although we were able to reproduce the main effects, the changes to the design of the original experiment make it impossible to identify the causes of the discrepancies for sure. We believe that further replications closely resembling the original experiment should be conducted to improve our understanding of the phenomena under study.

Neuronanatomy, neurology and Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks are data mining models with clear semantics and a sound theoretical foundation. In this keynote talk we will pinpoint a number of neuroscience problems that can be addressed using Bayesian networks. In neuroanatomy, we will show computer simulation models of dendritic trees and classification of neuron types, both based on morphological features. In neurology, we will present the search for genetic biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease and the prediction of health-related quality of life in Parkinson's disease. Most of these challenging problems posed by neuroscience involve new Bayesian network designs that can cope with multiple class variables, small sample sizes, or labels annotated by several experts.

Analysis of genetic variability in a sample of the durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) Spanish collection based on gliadin markers

In this work gliadin proteins were used to analyse the genetic variability in a sample of the durum wheat Spanish collection conserved at the CRF-INIA. In total 38 different alleles were identified at the loci Gli-A1, Gli-A3, Gli-B5, Gli-B1, Gli-A2 and Gli-B2. All the gliadin loci were polymorphic, possessed large genetic diversity and small and large differentiation within and between varieties, respectively. The Gli-A2 and Gli-B2 loci were the most polymorphic, the most fixed within varieties and the most useful to distinguish among varieties. Alternatively, Gli-B1 locus presented the least genetic variability out of the four main loci Gli-A1, Gli-B1, Gli-A2 and Gli-B2. The Gli-B1 alleles coding for the gliadin γ-45, associated with good quality, had an accumulated frequency of 69.7%, showing that the Spanish germplasm could be a good source for breeding quality. The Spanish landraces studied showed new gliadin alleles not catalogued so far. These new alleles might be associated with specific Spanish environment factors. The large number of new alleles identified also indicates that durum wheat Spanish germplasm is rather unique.

CSR Policies: Effects on Labour Productivity in Spanish Micro and Small Manufacturing Companies

This paper analyses empirical evidence of efforts to enable Spanish micro and small manufacturing companies to boost their labour productivity rates through the development of the main pillars of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies. This study aims to develop new approaches and sensibilities towards work from an ethical, values (virtues) and CSR perspective, showing how internal dimensions of CSR, such those related to relationships with employees and responsibility in processes and product quality, can improve labour performance and labour efficiency, thereby contributing to a better society. The results of a sample of 929 small businesses indicate that the social responsibility policies that most contributed to a short-term increase in labour productivity are those related to internal aspects of the company, in particular its involvement in the quality of processes and products, promotion of innovation and employee care. However, the impact on labour productivity of CSR policies related to external factors, such as relationship with stakeholders and environmental concern, could not be empirically proven in this paper.