Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Metro de Madrid rolling stock models and comparative studies relating to comfort

This paper presents the work carried out by Metro de Madrid and the Railway Technology Research Centre (Polytechnic University of Madrid), aimed at setting up rolling stock simulation models with a high level of detail. To do this, the features of the SIMPACK simulation tool used to create models have been briefly outlined, explaining the main features of models in two of the series modelled: 7000 and 8000. Finally, the results obtained from comparing comfort in the 7000 and 8000 series are presented.

Comparison of vibration and rolling noise emission of resilient and solid monobloc railway wheels in underground lines

Flat or worn wheels rolling on rough or corrugated tracks can provoke airborne noise and ground-borne vibration, which can be a serious concern for nearby neighbours of urban rail transit lines. Among the various treatments used to reduce vibration and noise, resilient wheels play an important role. In conventional resilient wheels, a slightly prestressed V­shaped rubber ring is mounted between the steel wheel centre and tyre. The elastic layer enhances rolling noise and vibration suppression, as well as impact reduction on the track. In this paper the effectiveness of resilient wheels in underground lines, in comparison to monobloc ones, is assessed. The analysed resilient wheel is able to carry greater loads than standard resilient wheels used for light vehicles. It also presents a greater radial resiliency and a higher axial stiffness than conventional V­wheels. The finite element method was used in this study. A quarter car model was defined, in which the wheelset was modelled as an elastic body. Several simulations were performed in order to assess the vibrational behaviour of elastic wheels, including modal, harmonic and random vibration analysis, the latter allowing the introduction of realistic vertical track irregularities, as well as the influence of the running speed. Due to numerical problems some simplifications were needed. Parametric variations were also performed, in which the sensitivity of the whole system to variations of rubber prestress and Poisson’s ratio of the elastic material was assessed.Results are presented in the frequency domain, showing a better performance of the resilient wheels for frequencies over 200 Hz. This result reveals the ability of the analyzed design to mitigate rolling noise, but not structural vibrations, which are primarily found in the lower frequency range.

Service needs forecasting: an approach for the automotive industry using analogies with medical ER management models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, car makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper establishes a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER.

SERVICE NEEDS FORECASTING: An Approach for the Motor Industry Using Analogies with Medical ER Management Models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, motor makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper ratify a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER

Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Robust rolling stock in rapid transit network

This paper focuses on the railway rolling stock circulation problem in rapid transit networks, in which frequencies are high and distances are relatively short. Although the distances are not very large, service times are high due to the large number of intermediate stops required to allow proper passenger flow. The main complicating issue is the fact that the available capacity at depot stations is very low, and both capacity and rolling stock are shared between different train lines. This forces the introduction of empty train movements and rotation maneuvers, to ensure sufficient station capacity and rolling stock availability. However, these shunting operations may sometimes be difficult to perform and can easily malfunction, causing localized incidents that could propagate throughout the entire network due to cascading effects. This type of operation will be penalized with the goal of selectively avoiding them and ameliorating their high malfunction probabilities. Critic trains, defined as train services that come through stations that have a large number of passengers arriving at the platform during rush hours, are also introduced. We illustrate our model using computational experiments drawn from RENFE (the main Spanish operator of suburban passenger trains) in Madrid, Spain. The results of the model, achieved in approximately 1 min, have been received positively by RENFE planners

Integration of Timetable Planning and Rolling Stock in Rapid Transit Networks

The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated planning model to adequate the offered capacity and system frequencies to attend the increased passenger demand and traffic congestion around urban and suburban areas. The railway capacity is studied in line planning, however, these planned frequencies were obtained without accounting for rolling stock flows through the rapid transit network. In order to provide the problem more freedom to decide rolling stock flows and therefore better adjusting these flows to passenger demand, a new integrated model is proposed, where frequencies are readjusted. Then, the railway timetable and rolling stock assignment are also calculated, where shunting operations are taken into account. These operations may sometimes malfunction, causing localized incidents that could propagate throughout the entire network due to cascading effects. This type of operations will be penalized with the goal of selectively avoiding them and ameliorating their high malfunction probabilities. Swapping operations will also be ensured using homogeneous rolling stock material and ensuring parkings in strategic stations. We illustrate our model using computational experiments drawn from RENFE (the main Spanish operator of suburban passenger trains) in Madrid, Spain. The results show that through this integrated approach a greater robustness degree can be obtained

An experimental study on the effect of rolling shutters on the field measurements of airborne sound insulation of façades

The façade is the visible part of a building, and generally consists of various different constructive systems. The sound reduction index of the closing elements for the openings on a room’s façade is a determining factor in the sound insulation from airborne noise inside the space. Windows are the transparent part of the façade, and to improve their thermal behaviour and control solar radiation, they are often fitted with a series of external and internal protections such as shutters, slats and blinds. This work contains a summary of studies carried out using field measurements of airborne sound insulation on façades in rooms, in application of the standard UNE-EN ISO 140-5:1999. In all the rooms the windows were fitted with shutter boxes and rolling shutters, and the acoustic tests were made with the shutter in two positions (extended and fully retracted). The results were analysed considering the window opening system (openable or sliding) and the type of glass pane (monolithic or insulating glass unit, IGU). In the case of sliding windows, the airborne sound insulation of façades is greater when the shutter is extended than when it is retracted, and this should be taken into account when applying the aforementioned standard.

Non invasive moisture measurement in agricultural fiel using a rolling spherical robot

Irrigation management in large crop fields is a very important practice. Since the farm management costs and the crop results are directly connected with the environmental moisture, water control optimization is a critical factor for agricultural practices, as well as for the planet sustainability. Usually, the crop humidity is measured through the water stress index (WSI), using imagery acquired from satellites or airplanes. Nevertheless, these tools have a significant cost, lack from availability, and dependability from the weather. Other alternative is to recover to ground tools, such as ground vehicles and even static base stations. However, they have an outstanding impact in the farming process, since they can damage the cultivation and require more human effort. As a possible solution to these issues, a rolling ground robot have been designed and developed, enabling non-invasive measurements within crop fields. This paper addresses the spherical robot system applied to intra-crop moisture measurements. Furthermore, some experiments were carried out in an early stage corn field in order to build a geo-referenced WSI map.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Robust rolling stock under uncertain demand in rapid transit networks

This paper focuses on the railway rolling stock circulation problem in rapid transit networks where the known demand and train schedule must be met by a given fleet. In rapid transit networks the frequencies are high and distances are relatively short. Although the distances are not very large, service times are high due to the large number of intermediate stops required to allow proper passenger flow. The previous circumstances and the reduced capacity of the depot stations and that the rolling stock is shared between the different lines, force the introduction of empty trains and a careful control on shunting operation. In practice the future demand is generally unknown and the decisions must be based on uncertain forecast. We have developed a stochastic rolling stock formulation of the problem. The computational experiments were developed using a commercial line of the Madrid suburban rail network operated by RENFE (The main Spanish operator of suburban trains of passengers). Comparing the results obtained by deterministic scenarios and stochastic approach some useful conclusions may be obtained.

Numerical and experimental study of the parametric rolling of a fisihing vessel in regular head waves

The dynamic behaviour of a fishing vessel in waves is studied in order to reveal its parametric rolling characteristics. This paper presents experimental and numerical results in longitudinal regular waves. The experimental results are compared against the results of a time-domain non-linear strip theory model of ship motions in six degrees-of-freedom. These results contribute to the validation of the parametric rolling prediction method, so that it can be used as an assessment tool to evaluate both the susceptibility and severity of occurrence of parametric rolling at the early design stage of these types of vessels.