Risk analysis for UAV safe operations: a rationalization for an agricultural environment

The road to the automation of the agricultural processes passes through the safe operation of the autonomous vehicles. This requirement is a fact in ground mobile units, but it still has not well defined for the aerial robots (UAVs) mainly because the normative and legislation are quite diffuse or even inexistent. Therefore, to define a common and global policy is the challenge to tackle. This characterization has to be addressed from the field experience. Accordingly, this paper presents the work done in this direction, based on the analysis of the most common sources of hazards when using UAV's for agricultural tasks. The work, based on the ISO 31000 normative, has been carried out by applying a three-step structure that integrates the identification, assessment and reduction procedures. The present paper exposes how this method has been applied to analyze previous accidents and malfunctions during UAV operations in order to obtain real failure causes. It has allowed highlighting common risks and hazardous sources and proposing specific guards and safety measures for the agricultural context.

A fuzzy approach to risk analysis in information systems

Assets are interrelated in risk analysis methodologies for information systems promoted by international standards. This means that an attack on one asset can be propagated through the network and threaten an organization's most valuable assets. It is necessary to valuate all assets, the direct and indirect asset dependencies, as well as the probability of threats and the resulting asset degradation. These methodologies do not, however, consider uncertain valuations and use precise values on different scales, usually percentages. Linguistic terms are used by the experts to represent assets values, dependencies and frequency and asset degradation associated with possible threats. Computations are based on the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers associated with these linguistic terms.

An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

A fuzzy extension of MAGERIT methodology for risk analysis in information systems

We propose a fuzzy approach to deal with risk analysis for information systems. We extend MAGERIT methodology that valuates the asset dependencies to a fuzzy framework adding fuzzy linguistic terms to valuate the different elements (terminal asset values, asset dependencies as well as the probability of threats and the resulting asset degradation) in risk analysis. Computations are based on the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers associated with these linguistic terms and, finally, the results of these operations are translated into a linguistic term by means of a similarity function.

A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Inclusión en modelos de riesgo de presas de una metodología de estimación hidrológica basada en técnicas de Monte Carlo

En este estudio se aplica una metodología de obtención de las leyes de frecuencia derivadas (de caudales máximo vertidos y niveles máximos alcanzados) en un entorno de simulaciones de Monte Carlo, para su inclusión en un modelo de análisis de riesgo de presas. Se compara su comportamiento respecto del uso de leyes de frecuencia obtenidas con las técnicas tradicionalmente utilizadas.

Direct estimation wave setup as a medium level in swash

The extreme runup is a key parameter for a shore risk analysis in which the accurate and quantitative estimation of the upper limit reached by waves is essential. Runup can be better approximated by splitting the setup and swash semi-amplitude contributions. In an experimental study recording setup becomes difficult due to infragravity motions within the surf zone, hence, it would be desirable to measure the setup with available methodologies and devices. In this research, an analysis is made of evaluated the convenience of direct estimation setup as the medium level in the swash zone for experimental runup analysis through a physical model. A physical mobile bed model was setup in a wave flume at the Laboratory for Maritime Experimentation of CEDEX. The wave flume is 36 metres long, 6.5 metres wide and 1.3 metres high. The physical model was designed to cover a reasonable range of parameters, three different slopes (1/50, 1/30 and 1/20), two sand grain sizes (D50 = 0.12 mm and 0.70 mm) and a range for the Iribarren number in deep water (ξ0) from 0.1 to 0.6. Best formulations were chosen for estimating a theoretical setup in the physical model application. Once theoretical setup had been obtained, a comparison was made with an estimation of the setup directly as a medium level of the oscillation in swash usually considered in extreme runup analyses. A good correlation was noted between both theoretical and time-averaging setup and a relation is proposed. Extreme runup is analysed through the sum of setup and semi-amplitude of swash. An equation is proposed that could be applied in strong foreshore slope-dependent reflective beaches.

Análisis de riesgos en los sistemas de información: un enfoque difuso

En los modelos promovidos por las normativas internacionales de análisis de riesgos en los sistemas de información, los activos están interrelacionados entre sí, de modo que un ataque sobre uno de ellos se puede transmitir a lo largo de toda la red, llegando a alcanzar a los activos más valiosos para la organización. Es necesario entonces asignar el valor de todos los activos, así como las relaciones de dependencia directas e indirectas entre estos, o la probabilidad de materialización de una amenaza y la degradación que ésta puede provocar sobre los activos. Sin embargo, los expertos encargados de asignar tales valores, a menudo aportan información vaga e incierta, de modo que las técnicas difusas pueden ser muy útiles en este ámbito. Pero estas técnicas no están libres de ciertas dificultades, como la necesidad de uso de una aritmética adecuada al modelo o el establecimiento de medidas de similitud apropiadas. En este documento proponemos un tratamiento difuso para los modelos de análisis de riesgos promovidos por las metodologías internacionales, mediante el establecimiento de tales elementos.Abstract— Assets are interrelated in risk analysis methodologies for information systems promoted by international standards. This means that an attack on one asset can be propagated through the network and threaten an organization’s most valuable assets. It is necessary to valuate all assets, the direct and indirect asset dependencies, as well as the probability of threats and the resulting asset degradation. However, the experts in charge to assign such values often provide only vague and uncertain information. Fuzzy logic can be very helpful in such situation, but it is not free of some difficulties, such as the need of a proper arithmetic to the model under consideration or the establishment of appropriate similarity measures. Throughout this paper we propose a fuzzy treatment for risk analysis models promoted by international methodologies through the establishment of such elements.

A fuzzy MCDA framework for safety assessment in the remediation of a uranium mill tailings site in Ukraine

The Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant was one of the largest uranium processing enterprises in the former USSR, producing a huge amount of uranium residues. The Zapadnoe tailings site contains most of these residues. We propose a theoretical framework based on multicriteria decision analysis and fuzzy logic to analyze different remediation alternatives for the Zapadnoe tailings, which simultaneously accounts for potentially conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. We build an objective hierarchy that includes all the relevant aspects. Fuzzy rather than precise values are proposed for use to evaluate remediation alternatives against the different criteria and to quantify preferences, such as the weights representing the relative importance of criteria identified in the objective hierarchy. Finally, we suggest that remediation alternatives should be evaluated by means of a fuzzy additive multi-attribute utility function and ranked on the basis of the respective trapezoidal fuzzy number representing their overall utility.

Montecarlo method applied to comparison of tenders in construction projects.

La comparación de las diferentes ofertas presentadas en la licitación de un proyecto,con el sistema de contratación tradicional de medición abierta y precio unitario cerrado, requiere herramientas de análisis que sean capaces de discriminar propuestas que teniendo un importe global parecido pueden presentar un impacto económico muy diferente durante la ejecución. Una de las situaciones que no se detecta fácilmente con los métodos tradicionales es el comportamiento del coste real frente a las variaciones de las cantidades realmente ejecutadas en obra respecto de las estimadas en el proyecto. Este texto propone abordar esta situación mediante un sistema de análisis cuantitativo del riesgo como el método de Montecarlo. Este procedimiento, como es sabido, consiste en permitir que los datos de entrada que definen el problema varíen unas funciones de probabilidad definidas, generar un gran número de casos de prueba y tratar los resultados estadísticamente para obtener los valores finales más probables,con los parámetros necesarios para medir la fiabilidad de la estimación. Se presenta un modelo para la comparación de ofertas, desarrollado de manera que puede aplicarse en casos reales aplicando a los datos conocidos unas condiciones de variación que sean fáciles de establecer por los profesionales que realizan estas tareas. ABSTRACT: The comparison of the different bids in the tender for a project, with the traditional contract system based on unit rates open to and re-measurement, requires analysis tools that are able to discriminate proposals having a similar overall economic impact, but that might show a very different behaviour during the execution of the works. One situation not easily detected by traditional methods is the reaction of the actual cost to the changes in the exact quantity of works finally executed respect of the work estimated in the project. This paper intends to address this situation through the Monte Carlo method, a system of quantitative risk analysis. This procedure, as is known, is allows the input data defining the problem to vary some within well defined probability functions, generating a large number of test cases, the results being statistically treated to obtain the most probable final values, with the rest of the parameters needed to measure the reliability of the estimate. We present a model for the comparison of bids, designed in a way that it can be applied in real cases, based on data and assumptions that are easy to understand and set up by professionals who wish to perform these tasks.

Diseño de un sistema regional de alerta de tsunamis como parte integral de la operación portuaria

En este trabajo se presenta el desarrollo de una metodología para obtener un universo de funciones de Green y el algoritmo correspondiente, para estimar la altura de tsunamis a lo largo de la costa occidental de México en función del momento sísmico y de la extensión del área de ruptura de sismos interplaca localizados entre la costa y la Trinchera Mesoamericana. Tomando como caso de estudio el sismo ocurrido el 9 de octubre de 1995 en la costa de Jalisco-Colima, se estudiaron los efectos del tsunami originados en la hidrodinámica del Puerto de Manzanillo, México, con una propuesta metodológica que contempló lo siguiente: El primer paso de la metodología contempló la aplicación del método inverso de tsunamis para acotar los parámetros de la fuente sísmica mediante la confección de un universo de funciones de Green para la costa occidental de México. Tanto el momento sísmico como la localización y extensión del área de ruptura de sismos se prescribe en segmentos de planos de falla de 30 X 30 km. A cada uno de estos segmentos del plano de falla corresponde un conjunto de funciones de Green ubicadas en la isobata de 100 m, para 172 localidades a lo largo de la costa, separadas en promedio 12 km entre una y otra. El segundo paso de la metodología contempló el estudio de la hidrodinámica (velocidades de las corrientes y niveles del mar en el interior del puerto y el estudio del runup en la playa) originada por el tsunami, la cual se estudió en un modelo hidráulico de fondo fijo y en un modelo numérico, representando un tsunami sintético en la profundidad de 34 m como condición inicial, el cual se propagó a la costa con una señal de onda solitaria. Como resultado de la hidrodinámica del puerto de Manzanillo, se realizó un análisis de riesgo para la definición de las condiciones operativas del puerto en términos de las velocidades en el interior del mismo, y partiendo de las condiciones iniciales del terremoto de 1995, se definieron las condiciones límites de operación de los barcos en el interior y exterior del puerto. In this work is presented the development of a methodology in order to obtain a universe of Green's functions and the corresponding algorithm in order to estimate the tsunami wave height along the west coast of Mexico, in terms of seismic moment and the extent of the area of the rupture, in the interplate earthquakes located between the coast and the Middle America Trench. Taking as a case of study the earthquake occurred on October 9, 1995 on the coast of Jalisco-Colima, were studied the hydrodynamics effects of the tsunami caused in the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico, with a methodology that contemplated the following The first step of the methodology contemplated the implementation of the tsunami inverse method to narrow the parameters of the seismic source through the creation of a universe of Green's functions for the west coast of Mexico. Both the seismic moment as the location and extent of earthquake rupture area prescribed in segments fault planes of 30 X 30 km. Each of these segments of the fault plane corresponds a set of Green's functions located in the 100 m isobath, to 172 locations along the coast, separated on average 12 km from each other. The second step of the methodology contemplated the study of the hydrodynamics (speed and directions of currents and sea levels within the port and the study of the runup on the beach Las Brisas) caused by the tsunami, which was studied in a hydraulic model of fix bed and in a numerical model, representing a synthetic tsunami in the depth of 34 m as an initial condition which spread to the coast with a solitary wave signal. As a result of the hydrodynamics of the port of Manzanillo, a risk analysis to define the operating conditions of the port in terms of the velocities in the inner and outside of the port was made, taken in account the initial conditions of the earthquake and tsunami ocurred in Manzanillo port in 1995, were defined the limits conditions of operation of the ships inside and outside the port.

Probabilistic meta-analysis of risk from the exposure to Hg in artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia

Colombia is one of the largest per capita mercury polluters in the world as a consequence of its artisanal gold mining activities. The severity of this problem in terms of potential health effects was evaluated by means of a probabilistic risk assessment carried out in the twelve departments (or provinces) in Colombia with the largest gold production. The two exposure pathways included in the risk assessment were inhalation of elemental Hg vapors and ingestion of fish contaminated with methyl mercury. Exposure parameters for the adult population (especially rates of fish consumption) were obtained from nation-wide surveys and concentrations of Hg in air and of methyl-mercury in fish were gathered from previous scientific studies. Fish consumption varied between departments and ranged from 0 to 0.3 kg d?1. Average concentrations of total mercury in fish (70 data) ranged from 0.026 to 3.3 lg g?1. A total of 550 individual measurements of Hg in workshop air (ranging from menor queDL to 1 mg m?3) and 261 measurements of Hg in outdoor air (ranging from menor queDL to 0.652 mg m?3) were used to generate the probability distributions used as concentration terms in the calculation of risk. All but two of the distributions of Hazard Quotients (HQ) associated with ingestion of Hg-contaminated fish for the twelve regions evaluated presented median values higher than the threshold value of 1 and the 95th percentiles ranged from 4 to 90. In the case of exposure to Hg vapors, minimum values of HQ for the general population exceeded 1 in all the towns included in this study, and the HQs for miner-smelters burning the amalgam is two orders of magnitude higher, reaching values of 200 for the 95th percentile. Even acknowledging the conservative assumptions included in the risk assessment and the uncertainties associated with it, its results clearly reveal the exorbitant levels of risk endured not only by miner-smelters but also by the general population of artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia.

Analysis of the Optimal Sharing of Construction Risk in Public Procurement Contracts

This paper discusses a model based on the agency theory to analyze the optimal transfer of construction risk in public works contracts. The base assumption is that of a contract between a principal (public authority) and an agent (firm), where the payment mechanism is linear and contains an incentive mechanism to enhance the effort of the agent to reduce construction costs. A theoretical model is proposed starting from a cost function with a random component and assuming that both the public authority and the firm are risk averse. The main outcome of the paper is that the optimal transfer of construction risk will be lower when the variance of errors in cost forecast, the risk aversion of the firm and the marginal cost of public funds are larger, while the optimal transfer of construction risk will grow when the variance of errors in cost monitoring and the risk aversion of the public authority are larger