Real Options: A Tool for Managing Technical Risk in a Mine Plan

NPV is a static measure of project value which does not discriminate between levels of internal and external risk in project valuation. Due to current investment project?s characteristics, a much more complex model is needed: one that includes the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with variables subject to uncertainty (price, costs, exchange rates, grade and tonnage of the deposits, cut off grade, among many others). Few of these variables present any correlation or can be treated uniformly. In this context, Real Option Valuation (ROV) arose more than a decade ago, as a mainly theoretical model with the potential for simultaneous calculation of the risk associated with such variables. This paper reviews the literature regarding the application of Real Options Valuation in mining, noting the prior focus on external risks, and presents a case study where ROV is applied to quantify risk associated to mine planning.

Real Time FPGA Implementation of an Modulation Classifier for Electronic Warfare Applications

This paper presents an automatic modulation classifier for electronic warfare applications. It is a pattern recognition modulation classifier based on statistical features of the phase and instantaneous frequency. This classifier runs in a real time operation mode with sampling rates in excess of 1 Gsample/s. The hardware platform for this application is a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). This AMC is subsidiary of a digital channelised receiver also implemented in the same platform.

Simulator of the JET real-time disruption predictor

A disruption predictor based on support vector machines (SVM) has been developed to be used in JET. The training process uses thousands of discharges and, therefore, high performance computing has been necessary to obtain the models. To this respect, several models have been generated with data from different JET campaigns. In addition, various kernels (mainly linear and RBF) and parameters have been tested. The main objective of this work has been the implementation of the predictor model under real-time constraints. A “C-code” software application has been developed to simulate the real-time behavior of the predictor. The application reads the signals from the JET database and simulates the real-time data processing, in particular, the specific data hold method to be developed when reading data from the JET ATM real time network. The simulator is fully configurable by means of text files to select models, signal thresholds, sampling rates, etc. Results with data between campaigns C23and C28 will be shown.

Results of the JET real-time disruption predictor in the ITER-like wall campaigns

The impact of disruptions in JET became even more important with the replacement of the previous Carbon Fiber Composite (CFC) wall with a more fragile full metal ITER-like wall (ILW). The development of robust disruption mitigation systems is crucial for JET (and also for ITER). Moreover, a reliable real-time (RT) disruption predictor is a pre-requisite to any mitigation method. The Advance Predictor Of DISruptions (APODIS) has been installed in the JET Real-Time Data Network (RTDN) for the RT recognition of disruptions. The predictor operates with the new ILW but it has been trained only with discharges belonging to campaigns with the CFC wall. 7 realtime signals are used to characterize the plasma status (disruptive or non-disruptive) at regular intervals of 1 ms. After the first 3 JET ILW campaigns (991 discharges), the success rate of the predictor is 98.36% (alarms are triggered in average 426 ms before the disruptions). The false alarm and missed alarm rates are 0.92% and 1.64%.

Robust Real-time Vision-based Aircraft Tracking From Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

Aircraft tracking plays a key and important role in the Sense-and-Avoid system of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This paper presents a novel robust visual tracking algorithm for UAVs in the midair to track an arbitrary aircraft at real-time frame rates, together with a unique evaluation system. This visual algorithm mainly consists of adaptive discriminative visual tracking method, Multiple-Instance (MI) learning approach, Multiple-Classifier (MC) voting mechanism and Multiple-Resolution (MR) representation strategy, that is called Adaptive M3 tracker, i.e. AM3. In this tracker, the importance of test sample has been integrated to improve the tracking stability, accuracy and real-time performances. The experimental results show that this algorithm is more robust, efficient and accurate against the existing state-of-art trackers, overcoming the problems generated by the challenging situations such as obvious appearance change, variant surrounding illumination, partial aircraft occlusion, blur motion, rapid pose variation and onboard mechanical vibration, low computation capacity and delayed information communication between UAVs and Ground Station (GS). To our best knowledge, this is the first work to present this tracker for solving online learning and tracking freewill aircraft/intruder in the UAVs.

Real-Time Adaptive Multi-Classifier Multi-Resolution Visual Tracking Framework for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

This paper presents a novel robust visual tracking framework, based on discriminative method, for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to track an arbitrary 2D/3D target at real-time frame rates, that is called the Adaptive Multi-Classifier Multi-Resolution (AMCMR) framework. In this framework, adaptive Multiple Classifiers (MC) are updated in the (k-1)th frame-based Multiple Resolutions (MR) structure with compressed positive and negative samples, and then applied them in the kth frame-based Multiple Resolutions (MR) structure to detect the current target. The sample importance has been integrated into this framework to improve the tracking stability and accuracy. The performance of this framework was evaluated with the Ground Truth (GT) in different types of public image databases and real flight-based aerial image datasets firstly, then the framework has been applied in the UAV to inspect the Offshore Floating Platform (OFP). The evaluation and application results show that this framework is more robust, efficient and accurate against the existing state-of-art trackers, overcoming the problems generated by the challenging situations such as obvious appearance change, variant illumination, partial/full target occlusion, blur motion, rapid pose variation and onboard mechanical vibration, among others. To our best knowledge, this is the first work to present this framework for solving the online learning and tracking freewill 2D/3D target problems, and applied it in the UAVs.