Price Formation and Real Estate Characteristics Residential Real Estate, Lisbon - Portugal

Análisis del proceso de formación de precios en el mercado residencial de Lisboa desde el punto de vista de la eliminación de los aspectos subjetivos de la apreciación por el tasador de las características de los inmuebles

Valuation of a new entrant in an oligopolistic market, including its option to abandon: A real-life case

The purpose of this paper is to increase current empirical evidence on the relevance of real options for explaining firm investment decisions in oligopolistic markets. We study an actual investment case in the Spanish mobile telephony industry, the entrant in the market of a new operator, Yoigo. We analyze the option to abandon in order to show the relevance of the possibility of selling the company in an oligopolistic market where competitors are not allowed free entrance. The NPV (net present value) of the new entrant is calculated as a starting point. Then, based on the general approach proposed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), a binomial tree is used to model managerial flexibility in discrete time periods, and value the option to abandon. The strike price of the option is calculated based on incremental EBITDA margins due to selling customers or merging with a competitor.

Explanation of changes in real estate stock market

The aim of this study is to explain the changes in the real estate prices as well as in the real estate stock market prices, using some macro-economic explanatory variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), the real interest rate and the unemployment rate. Several regressions have been carried out in order to express some types of incremental and absolute deflated real estate lock market indexes in terms of the macro-economic variables. The analyses are applied to the Swedish economy. The period under study is 1984-1994. Time series on monthly data are used. i.e. the number of data-points is 132. If time leads/lags are introduced in the e regressions, significant improvements in the already high correlations are achieved. The signs of the coefficients for IR, UE and GDP are all what one would expect to see from an economic point of view: those for GDP are all positive, those for both IR and UE are negative. All the regressions have high R2 values. Both markets anticipate change in the unemployment rate by 6 to 9 months, which seems reasonable because such change can be forecast quite reliably. But, on the contrary, there is no reason why they should anticipate by 3-6 months changes in the interest rate that can hardly be reliably forecast so far in advance.

Analysis of house prices to assess economic impacts of new public transport infrastructure: Madrid metro line 12.

Transportation infrastructure is known to affect the value of real estate property by virtue of changes in accessibility. The impact of transportation facilities is highly localized as well, and it is possible that spillover effects result from the capitalization of accessibility. The objective of this study was to review the theoretical background related to spatial hedonic models and the opportunities that they provided to evaluate the effect of new transportation infrastructure. An empirical case study is presented: the Madrid Metro Line 12, known as Metrosur, in the region of Madrid, Spain. The effect of proximity to metro stations on housing prices was evaluated. The analysis took into account a host of variables, including structure, location, and neighborhood and made use of three modeling approaches: linear regression estimation with ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag. The results indicated that better accessibility to Metrosur stations had a positive impact on real estate values and that the effect was marked in cases in which a house was for sale. The results also showed the presence of submarkets, which were well defined by geographic boundaries, and transport fares, which implied that the economic benefits differed across municipalities.

Evolución y crisis de la región metropolitana de Madrid 1985-2007. Análisis de las diversas perspectivas para la transformación del gobierno urbano: una revisión crítica del planeamiento

La Región Metropolitana de Madrid (RMM) ha sufrido una gran transformación urbana en el periodo 1985-2007, en el cual ha crecido la población, ha crecido fuertemente el cuerpo físico, pero sobre todo han crecido su coste y su consumo, lo que supone que se ha vuelto más insostenible. Para tratar de comprender esta evolución asimétrica se ensayan sucesivos modelos que tratan de explicar la transformación de la realidad a través de la articulación de las formas de poder y sus políticas asociadas dentro del contexto local-metropolitano. Si se compara la transformación urbana en el periodo 1985-2007 respecto a la registrada durante el desarrollismo previo al presente periodo democrático, se encuentran similitudes, como el amplio consumo de suelo, pero el modelo desarrollista se inscribe en otras lógicas y tiene otros parámetros de contexto y es congruente ya que las últimas décadas del Régimen Franquista se caracterizan por un importantísimo aumento poblacional que se correspondía con el fuerte crecimiento industrial de la RMM. Esa congruencia relativa se pierde en el periodo estudiado, a pesar de que en 1985, se aprueba el Plan General de Ordenación Urbana de Madrid centrado en la ciudad existente y con un crecimiento contenido, y que puede considerarse un modelo abortado. Tras numerosas transformaciones políticas, económicas, sociales y urbanísticas se llega a una situación opuesta a la prevista en el citado Plan. Más de veinte años después, en 2007, se presentan no solo síntomas de agotamiento del modelo finalmente adoptado, sino su quiebra dramática tanto en su dimensión inmobiliario-financiera como del espacio del bienestar. Es precisamente la supresión de los mecanismos de regulación lo que ha caracterizado la evolución de los modelos urbanos, en correspondencia con la desregulación de las actividades económicas y de los flujos de capital propios del modelo "neoliberal". La actual crisis financiera internacional, en especial en algunos países periféricos europeos como España, ha demostrado cómo las políticas económicas que se han llevado a cabo, fuera de toda regulación, han resultado insostenibles. Pero no se trata solo de una crisis económica. En el caso español, de todas las dimensiones de la crisis, destaca la dimensión urbana, o el auge y caída del ciclo inmobiliario, debido a la urbanización intensiva del territorio en relación con el circuito secundario de la acumulación capitalista, habiendo tenido especial incidencia en algunos territorios como la RMM. En la Región Metropolitana de Madrid la situación actual es de crisis urbana, causada principalmente por el divorcio entre las necesidades y la producción de ciudad, pues no se ha basado el crecimiento en la creación de nuevos hogares, u otras cuestiones demográficas, sino en la acumulación de capital a través del crecimiento de la ciudad. Además, dicho crecimiento está conformado por una expansión urbana descontrolada, con mayores requerimientos energéticos que el modelo compacto y complejo tradicional, lo que unido a la escala de los procesos, supone un sistema urbano progresivamente ineficiente. El caso de la RMM resulta paradigmático, ya que la región ha desempeñado un papel como laboratorio de nuevas formas de gobierno y planificación que han dado un mayor protagonismo al espacio, que ha entrado en las dinámicas centrales principalmente por el apoyo al crecimiento físico, a la vez que han confluido circunstancias específicas, como un nuevo impulso al centralismo, lo que ha potenciado ciertas políticas, como considerar la ciudad como motor de crecimiento económico y de competitividad en el concierto europeo y mundial de ciudades. El estudio del papel de la planificación y sus crisis en la sucesión de los modelos, muestra su función nuclear en la propia constitución de estos —es parte fundamental de su aparato de regulación— y su valor no solo para poder entender el periodo, sino para poder proyectar otro futuro urbano. Este enfoque conduce a establecer la relación del planeamiento con las diferentes crisis económicas en el periodo de estudio lo que permite diferenciar tres momentos de dicha relación: la planificación urbanística austera bajo la influencia de la crisis fordista, la salida de la crisis a través de la imposición de un modelo urbano basado en el sobreproducción de espacio urbano, y la entrada en una crisis inmobiliaria y de financiarización en relación a la adopción de un modelo multidimensionalmente insostenible. El análisis de este periodo es la base para apuntar perspectivas que permitan transformar el gobierno urbano hacia un modelo urbano más deseable, o mejor aún, otros futuros posibles, que se enmarcan dentro de la alternativa principal que supone la sostenibilidad. Madrid's Metropolitan Region (MMR) has undergone a major urban transformation in the period 1985-2007, where the population has grown up, the built environment has grown strongly, but mostly its cost and consumption have grown, which means that it has become unsustainable. To try to understand this evolution successive asymmetric models are tested in order to explain the transformation of reality through the articulation of forms of power and its associated policies in that localmetropolitan context. Comparing the urban transformation in the period 1985-2007 to the existing during developmentalism in the current predemocratic period, both have similarities in terms of land consumption, but the previous developmentalism model is part of another logics and has got other context parameters. It is consistent since the last decades of the Franco Regime was characterized by an important population increase that corresponded to strong industrial growth of the MMR. This relative consistency is lost during the study period, although in 1985, with the approval of the Master Plan of Madrid that was focused on the existing city, with a limited growth, and it may be considered an interrupted model. After numerous political, economic, social and urban changes, there is the opposite situation to that foresight under that Plan. Over twenty years later, in 2007, there are not only signs of exhaustion of the model which was finally adopted, but also its dramatic collapse in both real estate and financial dimension of space as well. The urban transformation under analysis has relaunched the hegemony of the sectors that rule the growth of the Madrid's Metropolitan Region and it is supported by decision making and financing of the different administrations with the passivity of the social stakeholders and citizens. This has meant the removal of regulatory mechanisms that have characterized the evolution of urban models, corresponding to the deregulation of economic activities and capital flows according to "neoliberal" model. The current international financial crisis, especially in some European peripheral countries like Spain, has shown how economic policies that have been carried out, without any regulation, have proven unsustainable. But it is not only an economic crisis. In the Spanish case, of all the dimensions of the crisis, it is the urban dimension that is highlighted, or the rise and fall of real estate cycle, due to intensive urbanization of the territory in relation to the secondary circuit of capital accumulation, having had a particular impact in some territories such as the Madrid's Metropolitan Region. In Madrid's Metropolitan Region there is the current situation of urban crisis, mainly caused by the divorce between needs and the city (space) production, because no growth has been based on creating new homes, or other demographic issues, but in the capital accumulation through growth of the city. Furthermore, this growth is made up of urban sprawl, with higher energy requirements than the traditional compact and complex one, which together with the scale of processes, is increasingly an inefficient urban system. The case of Madrid's Metropolitan Region is paradigmatic, since the region has played a role as a laboratory for new forms of governance and planning have given a greater role to space, which has entered the core dynamics supported mainly by physical growth, while specific circumstances have come together as a new impulse to centralization. This has promoted policies such as considering the city as an engine of economic growth and competitiveness in the international and the European hierarchy of cities. The study of the role of planning and crisis in the succession of models, shows its nuclear role in the constitution of these models is a fundamental part of its regulatory apparatus- and also its value not only to understand the period, but to anticipate to other urban future. This approach leads to establish the relationship of planning with the various crises in the study period, allowing three different moments of that relationship: the austere urban planning under the influence of Fordist crisis, the output of the crisis through imposition of an urban model based on the overproduction of urban space, and entry into a housing crisis and financialisation in relation to the adoption of a multi-dimensionally unsustainable model. The analysis of this period is the basis for targeting prospects that translate urban governance towards a more desirable urban model, or better yet, other possible futures, which are part of the main alternative that is sustainability.

El microclima urbano en los espacios abiertos : estudio de casos en Madrid

El microclima urbano juega un rol importante en el consumo energético de los edificios y en las sensaciones de confort en los espacios exteriores. La urgente necesidad de aumentar la eficiencia energética, reducir las emisiones de los contaminantes y paliar la evidente falta de sostenibilidad que afecta a las ciudades, ha puesto la atención en el urbanismo bioclimático como referente para una propuesta de cambio en la forma de diseñar y vivir la ciudad. Hasta ahora las investigaciones en temas de microclima y eficiencia energética se han concentrado principalmente en como orientar el diseño de nuevos desarrollo. Sin embargo los principales problemas de la insostenibilidad de las actuales conurbaciones son el resultado del modelo de crecimiento especulativo y altamente agotador de recursos que han caracterizado el boom inmobiliario de las últimas décadas. Vemos entonces, tanto en España como en el resto de los Países Europeos, la necesidad de reorientar el sector de la construcción hacía la rehabilitación del espacio construido, como una alternativa capaz de dar una solución más sostenible para el mercado inmobiliario. En este propósito de mejorar la calidad de las ciudades actuales, el espacio público juega un papel fundamental, sobre todo como lugar para el encuentro y la socialización entre los ciudadanos. La sensación térmica condiciona la percepción de un ambiente, así que el microclima puede ser determinante para el éxito o el fracaso de un espacio urbano. Se plantea entonces cómo principal objetivo de la investigación, la definición de estrategias para el diseño bioclimático de los entornos urbanos construidos, fundamentados en las componentes morfotipológica, climática y de los requerimientos de confort para los ciudadanos. Como ulterior elemento de novedad se decide estudiar la rehabilitación de los barrios de construcción de mediado del siglo XX, que en muchos casos constituyen bolsas de degrado en la extendida periferia de las ciudades modernas. La metodología empleada para la investigación se basa en la evaluación de las condiciones climáticas y de confort térmico de diferentes escenarios de proyecto, aplicados a tres casos de estudio situados en un barrio periurbano de la ciudad de Madrid. Para la determinación de los parámetros climáticos se han empleado valores obtenidos con un proceso de simulación computarizada, basados en los principios de fluidodinámica, termodinámica y del intercambio radioactivo en el espacio construido. A través de uso de programas de simulación podemos hacer una previsión de las condiciones microclimáticas de las situaciones actuales y de los efectos de la aplicación de medidas. La gran ventaja en el uso de sistemas de cálculo es que se pueden evaluar diferentes escenarios de proyecto y elegir entre ellos el que asegura mejores prestaciones ambientales. Los resultados obtenidos en los diferentes escenarios han sido comparados con los valores de confort del estado actual, utilizando como indicador de la sensación térmica el índice UTCI. El análisis comparativo ha permitido la realización de una tabla de resumen donde se muestra la evaluación de las diferentes soluciones de rehabilitación. Se ha podido así demostrar que no existe una solución constructiva eficaz para todas las aplicaciones, sino que cada situación debe ser estudiada individualmente, aplicando caso por caso las medidas más oportunas. Si bien los sistemas de simulación computarizada pueden suponer un importante apoyo para la fase de diseño, es responsabilidad del proyectista emplear las herramientas más adecuadas en cada fase y elegir las soluciones más oportunas para cumplir con los objetivos del proyecto. The urban microclimate plays an important role on buildings energy consumption and comfort sensation in exterior spaces. Nowadays, cities need to increase energy efficiency, reduce the pollutants emissions and mitigate the evident lack of sustainability. In reason of this, attention has focused on the bioclimatic urbanism as a reference of change proposal of the way to design and live the city. Hitherto, the researches on microclimate and energy efficiency have mainly concentrated on guiding the design of new constructions. However the main problems of unsustainability of existing conurbations are the result of the growth model highly speculative and responsible of resources depletion that have characterized the real estate boom of recent decades. In Spain and other European countries, become define the need to redirect the construction sector towards urban refurbishment. This alternative is a more sustainable development model and is able to provide a solution for the real estate sector. In order to improve the quality of today's cities, the public space plays a key role, especially in order to provide to citizens places for meeting and socializing. The thermal sensation affects the environment perception, so microclimate conditions can be decisive for the success or failure of urban space. For this reasons, the main objective of this work is focused on the definition of bioclimatic strategies for existing urban spaces, based on the morpho-typological components, climate and comfort requirements for citizens. As novelty element, the regeneration of neighborhoods built in middle of the twentieth century has been studied, because are the major extended in periphery of modern cities and, in many cases, they represent deprived areas. The research methodology is based on the evaluation of climatic conditions and thermal comfort of different project scenarios, applied to three case studies located in a suburban neighborhood of Madrid. The climatic parameters have been obtained by computer simulation process, based on fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radioactive exchange in urban environment using numerical approach. The great advantage in the use of computing systems is the capacity for evaluate different project scenarios. The results in the different scenarios were compared with the comfort value obtained in the current state, using the UTCI index as indicator of thermal sensation. Finally, an abacus of the thermal comfort improvement obtained by different countermeasures has been performed. One of the major achievement of doctoral work is the demonstration of there are not any design solution suitable for different cases. Each situation should be analyzed and specific design measures should be proposed. Computer simulation systems can be a significant support and help the designer in the decision making phase. However, the election of the most suitable tools and the appropriate solutions for each case is designer responsibility.

A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.