Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

The Risk of Using the Q Heterogeneity Estimator for Software Engineering Experiments

All meta-analyses should include a heterogeneity analysis. Even so, it is not easy to decide whether a set of studies are homogeneous or heterogeneous because of the low statistical power of the statistics used (usually the Q test). Objective: Determine a set of rules enabling SE researchers to find out, based on the characteristics of the experiments to be aggregated, whether or not it is feasible to accurately detect heterogeneity. Method: Evaluate the statistical power of heterogeneity detection methods using a Monte Carlo simulation process. Results: The Q test is not powerful when the meta-analysis contains up to a total of about 200 experimental subjects and the effect size difference is less than 1. Conclusions: The Q test cannot be used as a decision-making criterion for meta-analysis in small sample settings like SE. Random effects models should be used instead of fixed effects models. Caution should be exercised when applying Q test-mediated decomposition into subgroups.

Uniformly reweighted belief propagation for distributed Bayesian hypothesis testing

Belief propagation (BP) is a technique for distributed inference in wireless networks and is often used even when the underlying graphical model contains cycles. In this paper, we propose a uniformly reweighted BP scheme that reduces the impact of cycles by weighting messages by a constant ?edge appearance probability? rho ? 1. We apply this algorithm to distributed binary hypothesis testing problems (e.g., distributed detection) in wireless networks with Markov random field models. We demonstrate that in the considered setting the proposed method outperforms standard BP, while maintaining similar complexity. We then show that the optimal ? can be approximated as a simple function of the average node degree, and can hence be computed in a distributed fashion through a consensus algorithm.

Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

Brain tissue segmentation on Diffusion Weighted Magnetic Resonance data

Introduction Diffusion weighted Imaging (DWI) techniques are able to measure, in vivo and non-invasively, the diffusivity of water molecules inside the human brain. DWI has been applied on cerebral ischemia, brain maturation, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, etc. [1]. Nowadays, there is a very high availability of these images. DWI allows the identification of brain tissues, so its accurate segmentation is a common initial step for the referred applications. Materials and Methods We present a validation study on automated segmentation of DWI based on the Gaussian mixture and hidden Markov random field models. This methodology is widely solved with iterative conditional modes algorithm, but some studies suggest [2] that graph-cuts (GC) algorithms improve the results when initialization is not close to the final solution. We implemented a segmentation tool integrating ITK with a GC algorithm [3], and a validation software using fuzzy overlap measures [4]. Results Segmentation accuracy of each tool is tested against a gold-standard segmentation obtained from a T1 MPRAGE magnetic resonance image of the same subject, registered to the DWI space. The proposed software shows meaningful improvements by using the GC energy minimization approach on DTI and DSI (Diffusion Spectrum Imaging) data. Conclusions The brain tissues segmentation on DWI is a fundamental step on many applications. Accuracy and robustness improvements are achieved with the proposed software, with high impact on the application’s final result.

Strong Connectivity in Directed Hypergraphs and its Application to the Atomic Decomposition of Ontologies

Los hipergrafos dirigidos se han empleado en problemas relacionados con lógica proposicional, bases de datos relacionales, linguística computacional y aprendizaje automático. Los hipergrafos dirigidos han sido también utilizados como alternativa a los grafos (bipartitos) dirigidos para facilitar el estudio de las interacciones entre componentes de sistemas complejos que no pueden ser fácilmente modelados usando exclusivamente relaciones binarias. En este contexto, este tipo de representación es conocida como hiper-redes. Un hipergrafo dirigido es una generalización de un grafo dirigido especialmente adecuado para la representación de relaciones de muchos a muchos. Mientras que una arista en un grafo dirigido define una relación entre dos de sus nodos, una hiperarista en un hipergrafo dirigido define una relación entre dos conjuntos de sus nodos. La conexión fuerte es una relación de equivalencia que divide el conjunto de nodos de un hipergrafo dirigido en particiones y cada partición define una clase de equivalencia conocida como componente fuertemente conexo. El estudio de los componentes fuertemente conexos de un hipergrafo dirigido puede ayudar a conseguir una mejor comprensión de la estructura de este tipo de hipergrafos cuando su tamaño es considerable. En el caso de grafo dirigidos, existen algoritmos muy eficientes para el cálculo de los componentes fuertemente conexos en grafos de gran tamaño. Gracias a estos algoritmos, se ha podido averiguar que la estructura de la WWW tiene forma de “pajarita”, donde más del 70% del los nodos están distribuidos en tres grandes conjuntos y uno de ellos es un componente fuertemente conexo. Este tipo de estructura ha sido también observada en redes complejas en otras áreas como la biología. Estudios de naturaleza similar no han podido ser realizados en hipergrafos dirigidos porque no existe algoritmos capaces de calcular los componentes fuertemente conexos de este tipo de hipergrafos. En esta tesis doctoral, hemos investigado como calcular los componentes fuertemente conexos de un hipergrafo dirigido. En concreto, hemos desarrollado dos algoritmos para este problema y hemos determinado que son correctos y cuál es su complejidad computacional. Ambos algoritmos han sido evaluados empíricamente para comparar sus tiempos de ejecución. Para la evaluación, hemos producido una selección de hipergrafos dirigidos generados de forma aleatoria inspirados en modelos muy conocidos de grafos aleatorios como Erdos-Renyi, Newman-Watts-Strogatz and Barabasi-Albert. Varias optimizaciones para ambos algoritmos han sido implementadas y analizadas en la tesis. En concreto, colapsar los componentes fuertemente conexos del grafo dirigido que se puede construir eliminando ciertas hiperaristas complejas del hipergrafo dirigido original, mejora notablemente los tiempos de ejecucion de los algoritmos para varios de los hipergrafos utilizados en la evaluación. Aparte de los ejemplos de aplicación mencionados anteriormente, los hipergrafos dirigidos han sido también empleados en el área de representación de conocimiento. En concreto, este tipo de hipergrafos se han usado para el cálculo de módulos de ontologías. Una ontología puede ser definida como un conjunto de axiomas que especifican formalmente un conjunto de símbolos y sus relaciones, mientras que un modulo puede ser entendido como un subconjunto de axiomas de la ontología que recoge todo el conocimiento que almacena la ontología sobre un conjunto especifico de símbolos y sus relaciones. En la tesis nos hemos centrado solamente en módulos que han sido calculados usando la técnica de localidad sintáctica. Debido a que las ontologías pueden ser muy grandes, el cálculo de módulos puede facilitar las tareas de re-utilización y mantenimiento de dichas ontologías. Sin embargo, analizar todos los posibles módulos de una ontología es, en general, muy costoso porque el numero de módulos crece de forma exponencial con respecto al número de símbolos y de axiomas de la ontología. Afortunadamente, los axiomas de una ontología pueden ser divididos en particiones conocidas como átomos. Cada átomo representa un conjunto máximo de axiomas que siempre aparecen juntos en un modulo. La decomposición atómica de una ontología es definida como un grafo dirigido de tal forma que cada nodo del grafo corresponde con un átomo y cada arista define una dependencia entre una pareja de átomos. En esta tesis introducimos el concepto de“axiom dependency hypergraph” que generaliza el concepto de descomposición atómica de una ontología. Un modulo en una ontología correspondería con un componente conexo en este tipo de hipergrafos y un átomo de una ontología con un componente fuertemente conexo. Hemos adaptado la implementación de nuestros algoritmos para que funcionen también con axiom dependency hypergraphs y poder de esa forma calcular los átomos de una ontología. Para demostrar la viabilidad de esta idea, hemos incorporado nuestros algoritmos en una aplicación que hemos desarrollado para la extracción de módulos y la descomposición atómica de ontologías. A la aplicación la hemos llamado HyS y hemos estudiado sus tiempos de ejecución usando una selección de ontologías muy conocidas del área biomédica, la mayoría disponibles en el portal de Internet NCBO. Los resultados de la evaluación muestran que los tiempos de ejecución de HyS son mucho mejores que las aplicaciones más rápidas conocidas. ABSTRACT Directed hypergraphs are an intuitive modelling formalism that have been used in problems related to propositional logic, relational databases, computational linguistic and machine learning. Directed hypergraphs are also presented as an alternative to directed (bipartite) graphs to facilitate the study of the interactions between components of complex systems that cannot naturally be modelled as binary relations. In this context, they are known as hyper-networks. A directed hypergraph is a generalization of a directed graph suitable for representing many-to-many relationships. While an edge in a directed graph defines a relation between two nodes of the graph, a hyperedge in a directed hypergraph defines a relation between two sets of nodes. Strong-connectivity is an equivalence relation that induces a partition of the set of nodes of a directed hypergraph into strongly-connected components. These components can be collapsed into single nodes. As result, the size of the original hypergraph can significantly be reduced if the strongly-connected components have many nodes. This approach might contribute to better understand how the nodes of a hypergraph are connected, in particular when the hypergraphs are large. In the case of directed graphs, there are efficient algorithms that can be used to compute the strongly-connected components of large graphs. For instance, it has been shown that the macroscopic structure of the World Wide Web can be represented as a “bow-tie” diagram where more than 70% of the nodes are distributed into three large sets and one of these sets is a large strongly-connected component. This particular structure has been also observed in complex networks in other fields such as, e.g., biology. Similar studies cannot be conducted in a directed hypergraph because there does not exist any algorithm for computing the strongly-connected components of the hypergraph. In this thesis, we investigate ways to compute the strongly-connected components of directed hypergraphs. We present two new algorithms and we show their correctness and computational complexity. One of these algorithms is inspired by Tarjan’s algorithm for directed graphs. The second algorithm follows a simple approach to compute the stronglyconnected components. This approach is based on the fact that two nodes of a graph that are strongly-connected can also reach the same nodes. In other words, the connected component of each node is the same. Both algorithms are empirically evaluated to compare their performances. To this end, we have produced a selection of random directed hypergraphs inspired by existent and well-known random graphs models like Erd˝os-Renyi and Newman-Watts-Strogatz. Besides the application examples that we mentioned earlier, directed hypergraphs have also been employed in the field of knowledge representation. In particular, they have been used to compute the modules of an ontology. An ontology is defined as a collection of axioms that provides a formal specification of a set of terms and their relationships; and a module is a subset of an ontology that completely captures the meaning of certain terms as defined in the ontology. In particular, we focus on the modules computed using the notion of syntactic locality. As ontologies can be very large, the computation of modules facilitates the reuse and maintenance of these ontologies. Analysing all modules of an ontology, however, is in general not feasible as the number of modules grows exponentially in the number of terms and axioms of the ontology. Nevertheless, the modules can succinctly be represented using the Atomic Decomposition of an ontology. Using this representation, an ontology can be partitioned into atoms, which are maximal sets of axioms that co-occur in every module. The Atomic Decomposition is then defined as a directed graph such that each node correspond to an atom and each edge represents a dependency relation between two atoms. In this thesis, we introduce the notion of an axiom dependency hypergraph which is a generalization of the atomic decomposition of an ontology. A module in the ontology corresponds to a connected component in the hypergraph, and the atoms of the ontology to the strongly-connected components. We apply our algorithms for directed hypergraphs to axiom dependency hypergraphs and in this manner, we compute the atoms of an ontology. To demonstrate the viability of this approach, we have implemented the algorithms in the application HyS which computes the modules of ontologies and calculate their atomic decomposition. In the thesis, we provide an experimental evaluation of HyS with a selection of large and prominent biomedical ontologies, most of which are available in the NCBO Bioportal. HyS outperforms state-of-the-art implementations in the tasks of extracting modules and computing the atomic decomposition of these ontologies.

Generating Scale-free Networks with Adjustable Clustering Coefficient Via Random Walks

This paper presents an algorithm for generating scale-free networks with adjustable clustering coefficient. The algorithm is based on a random walk procedure combined with a triangle generation scheme which takes into account genetic factors; this way, preferential attachment and clustering control are implemented using only local information. Simulations are presented which support the validity of the scheme, characterizing its tuning capabilities.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Comparison of turbulence models for the computational fluid dynamics simulation of wind turbine wakes in the atmospheric boundary layer

An elliptic computational fluid dynamics wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate a wind turbine, approximated by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, is applied on an incoming non-uniform shear flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded with the exerted forces estimated as a function of the incident wind speed, thrust coefficient and rotor diameter. The model is assessed in terms of wind speed deficit and added turbulence intensity for different turbulence models and is validated from experimental measurements of the Sexbierum wind turbine experiment.

CFD modelling of the interaction between the Surface Boundary Layer and rotor wake. Comparison of results obtained with different turbulence models and mesh strategies

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming non-uniform flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is tested under different parameterizations of turbulence models and validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit and turbulence intensity.

Comparison of numerical models for vibro-acoustic analysis of structural panels in low modal density range engaging air layers

During launch, satellite and their equipment are subjected to loads of random nature and with a wide frequency range. Their vibro-acoustic response is an important issue to be analysed, for example for folded solar arrays and antennas. The main issue at low modal density is the modelling combinations engaging air layers, structures and external fluid. Depending on the modal density different methodologies, as FEM, BEM and SEA should be considered. This work focuses on the analysis of different combinations of the methodologies previously stated used in order to characterise the vibro-acoustic response of two rectangular sandwich structure panels isolated and engaging an air layer between them under a diffuse acoustic field. Focusing on the modelling of air layers, different models are proposed. To illustrate the phenomenology described and studied, experimental results from an acoustic test on an ARA-MKIII solar array in folded configuration are presented along with numerical results.

A review of load models for the prediction of footfall-induced vibration in structures

Crowd induced dynamic loading in large structures, such as gymnasiums or stadium, is usually modelled as a series of harmonic loads which are defined in terms of their Fourier coefficients. Different values of these coefficients that were obtained from full scale measurements can be found in codes. Recently, an alternative has been proposed, based on random generation of load time histories that take into account phase lag among individuals inside the crowd. This paper presents the testing done on a structure designed to be a gymnasium. Two series of dynamic test were performed on the gym slab. For the first test an electrodynamic shaker was placed at several locations and during the second one people located inside a marked area bounced and jumped guided by different metronome rates. A finite element model (FEM) is presented and a comparison of numerically predicted and experimentally observed vibration modes and frequencies has been used to assess its validity. The second group of measurements will be compared with predictions made using the FEM model and three alternatives for crowd induced load modelling.

An introduction to flow and transport in fractal models of porous media: Part I

This special issue gathers together a number of recent papers on fractal geometry and its applications to the modeling of flow and transport in porous media. The aim is to provide a systematic approach for analyzing the statics and dynamics of fluids in fractal porous media by means of theory, modeling and experimentation. The topics covered include lacunarity analyses of multifractal and natural grayscale patterns, random packing's of self-similar pore/particle size distributions, Darcian and non-Darcian hydraulic flows, diffusion within fractals, models for the permeability and thermal conductivity of fractal porous media and hydrophobicity and surface erosion properties of fractal structures.

Generation of human computational models with machine learning

Services in smart environments pursue to increase the quality of people?s lives. The most important issues when developing this kind of environments is testing and validating such services. These tasks usually imply high costs and annoying or unfeasible real-world testing. In such cases, artificial societies may be used to simulate the smart environment (i.e. physical environment, equipment and humans). With this aim, the CHROMUBE methodology guides test engineers when modeling human beings. Such models reproduce behaviors which are highly similar to the real ones. Originally, these models are based on automata whose transitions are governed by random variables. Automaton?s structure and the probability distribution functions of each random variable are determined by a manual test and error process. In this paper, it is presented an alternative extension of this methodology which avoids the said manual process. It is based on learning human behavior patterns automatically from sensor data by using machine learning techniques. The presented approach has been tested on a real scenario, where this extension has given highly accurate human behavior models,