Application of Deadlock Risk Evaluation of Architectural Models

Software architectural evaluation is a key discipline used to identify, at early stages of a real-time system (RTS) development, the problems that may arise during its operation. Typical mechanisms supporting concurrency, such as semaphores, mutexes or monitors, usually lead to concurrency problems in execution time that are difficult to be identified, reproduced and solved. For this reason, it is crucial to understand the root causes of these problems and to provide support to identify and mitigate them at early stages of the system lifecycle. This paper aims to present the results of a research work oriented to the development of the tool called ‘Deadlock Risk Evaluation of Architectural Models’ (DREAM) to assess deadlock risk in architectural models of an RTS. A particular architectural style, Pipelines of Processes in Object-Oriented Architectures–UML (PPOOA) was used to represent platform-independent models of an RTS architecture supported by the PPOOA –Visio tool. We validated the technique presented here by using several case studies related to RTS development and comparing our results with those from other deadlock detection approaches, supported by different tools. Here we present two of these case studies, one related to avionics and the other to planetary exploration robotics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methodologies for Collision Risk Computation = Metodologías para Cálculo de Riesgo de Colisión

Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.

Systematic Approach for the selection of monitoring technologies in CO2 geological storage projects. Application of multicriteria decision making

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been proposed as a viable means for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Once injection begins, a program for measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) of CO2 distribution is required in order to: a) research key features, effects and processes needed for risk assessment; b) manage the injection process; c) delineate and identify leakage risk and surface escape; d) provide early warnings of failure near the reservoir; and f) verify storage for accounting and crediting. The selection of the methodology of monitoring (characterization of site and control and verification in the post-injection phase) is influenced by economic and technological variables. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) refers to a methodology developed for making decisions in the presence of multiple criteria. MCDM as a discipline has only a relatively short history of 40 years, and it has been closely related to advancements on computer technology. Evaluation methods and multicriteria decisions include the selection of a set of feasible alternatives, the simultaneous optimization of several objective functions, and a decision-making process and evaluation procedures that must be rational and consistent. The application of a mathematical model of decision-making will help to find the best solution, establishing the mechanisms to facilitate the management of information generated by number of disciplines of knowledge. Those problems in which decision alternatives are finite are called Discrete Multicriteria Decision problems. Such problems are most common in reality and this case scenario will be applied in solving the problem of site selection for storing CO2. Discrete MCDM is used to assess and decide on issues that by nature or design support a finite number of alternative solutions. Recently, Multicriteria Decision Analysis has been applied to hierarchy policy incentives for CCS, to assess the role of CCS, and to select potential areas which could be suitable to store. For those reasons, MCDM have been considered in the monitoring phase of CO2 storage, in order to select suitable technologies which could be techno-economical viable. In this paper, we identify techniques of gas measurements in subsurface which are currently applying in the phase of characterization (pre-injection); MCDM will help decision-makers to hierarchy the most suitable technique which fit the purpose to monitor the specific physic-chemical parameter.

A methodology proposal to obtain operational parameter forecasts and operational risk assessment in container terminals

Las terminales de contenedores son sistemas complejos en los que un elevado número de actores económicos interactúan para ofrecer servicios de alta calidad bajo una estricta planificación y objetivos económicos. Las conocidas como "terminales de nueva generación" están diseñadas para prestar servicio a los mega-buques, que requieren tasas de productividad que alcanzan los 300 movimientos/ hora. Estas terminales han de satisfacer altos estándares dado que la competitividad entre terminales es elevada. Asegurar la fiabilidad de las planificaciones del atraque es clave para atraer clientes, así como reducir al mínimo el tiempo que el buque permanece en el puerto. La planificación de las operaciones es más compleja que antaño, y las tolerancias para posibles errores, menores. En este contexto, las interrupciones operativas deben reducirse al mínimo. Las principales causas de dichas perturbaciones operacionales, y por lo tanto de incertidumbre, se identifican y caracterizan en esta investigación. Existen una serie de factores que al interactuar con la infraestructura y/o las operaciones desencadenan modos de fallo o parada operativa. Los primeros pueden derivar no solo en retrasos en el servicio sino que además puede tener efectos colaterales sobre la reputación de la terminal, o incluso gasto de tiempo de gestión, todo lo cual supone un impacto para la terminal. En el futuro inmediato, la monitorización de las variables operativas presenta gran potencial de cara a mejorar cualitativamente la gestión de las operaciones y los modelos de planificación de las terminales, cuyo nivel de automatización va en aumento. La combinación del criterio experto con instrumentos que proporcionen datos a corto y largo plazo es fundamental para el desarrollo de herramientas que ayuden en la toma de decisiones, ya que de este modo estarán adaptadas a las auténticas condiciones climáticas y operativas que existen en cada emplazamiento. Para el corto plazo se propone una metodología con la que obtener predicciones de parámetros operativos en terminales de contenedores. Adicionalmente se ha desarrollado un caso de estudio en el que se aplica el modelo propuesto para obtener predicciones de la productividad del buque. Este trabajo se ha basado íntegramente en datos proporcionados por una terminal semi-automatizada española. Por otro lado, se analiza cómo gestionar, evaluar y mitigar el efecto de las interrupciones operativas a largo plazo a través de la evaluación del riesgo, una forma interesante de evaluar el effecto que eventos inciertos pero probables pueden generar sobre la productividad a largo plazo de la terminal. Además se propone una definición de riesgo operativo junto con una discusión de los términos que representan con mayor fidelidad la naturaleza de las actividades y finalmente, se proporcionan directrices para gestionar los resultados obtenidos. Container terminals are complex systems where a large number of factors and stakeholders interact to provide high-quality services under rigid planning schedules and economic objectives. The socalled next generation terminals are conceived to serve the new mega-vessels, which are demanding productivity rates up to 300 moves/hour. These terminals need to satisfy high standards because competition among terminals is fierce. Ensuring reliability in berth scheduling is key to attract clients, as well as to reduce at a minimum the time that vessels stay the port. Because of the aforementioned, operations planning is becoming more complex, and the tolerances for errors are smaller. In this context, operational disturbances must be reduced at a minimum. The main sources of operational disruptions and thus, of uncertainty, are identified and characterized in this study. External drivers interact with the infrastructure and/or the activities resulting in failure or stoppage modes. The later may derive not only in operational delays but in collateral and reputation damage or loss of time (especially management times), all what implies an impact for the terminal. In the near future, the monitoring of operational variables has great potential to make a qualitative improvement in the operations management and planning models of terminals that use increasing levels of automation. The combination of expert criteria with instruments that provide short- and long-run data is fundamental for the development of tools to guide decision-making, since they will be adapted to the real climatic and operational conditions that exist on site. For the short-term a method to obtain operational parameter forecasts in container terminals. To this end, a case study is presented, in which forecasts of vessel performance are obtained. This research has been entirely been based on data gathered from a semi-automated container terminal from Spain. In the other hand it is analyzed how to manage, evaluate and mitigate disruptions in the long-term by means of the risk assessment, an interesting approach to evaluate the effect of uncertain but likely events on the long-term throughput of the terminal. In addition, a definition for operational risk evaluation in port facilities is proposed along with a discussion of the terms that better represent the nature of the activities involved and finally, guidelines to manage the results obtained are provided.

Phylogenetic analyses and toxigenic profiles of Fusarium equiseti and Fusarium acuminatum isolated from cereals from Southern Europe

Fusarium equiseti and Fusarium acuminatum are toxigenic species that contaminate cereal crops from diverse climatic regions. They are common in Spanish cereals. The information available on their phylogenetics and toxigenic profiles is, however, insufficient to assist risk evaluation. In this work, phylogenetic analyses were performed using partial sequences of the translation elongation factor gene (EF-1a) of F. equiseti and F. acuminatum strains isolated from barley and wheat from Spain and other countries. The Northern and Southern European F. equiseti strains largely separated into two phylogenetically distinct clusters. This suggests the existence of two distinct populations within this species, explaining its presence in these regions of markedly different climate. Production of type A and B trichothecenes by the Spanish strains, examined in wheat cultures using a multitoxin analytical method, indicated that F. equiseti could produce deoxynivalenol and nivalenol and other trichothecenes, at concentrations that might represent a significant risk of toxin contamination for Southern European cereals. F. acuminatum showed low intraspecific genetic variability and 58% of the strains could produce deoxynivalenol at low level. Neither species was found to produce T-2 or HT-2 toxins. The present results provide important phylogenetic and toxigenic information essential for the accurate prediction of toxigenic risk.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Nematodes as indicators of the effect of soil fumigants on soil functioning

Debido al futuro incierto de la mayor parte de los fumigantes edáficos usados actualmente en la Unión Europea, que pueden implicar riesgos para la salud humana/animal y el medio ambiente, es necesario desarrollar programas de manejo integrado para el control de plagas de cultivos. Estos programas se incluyen como obligatorios en el Reglamento (EC) No. 1107/2009. De acuerdo con este Reglamento, es obligatoria la evaluación del riesgo asociado al uso de productos fitosanitarios sobre los organismos edáficos no diana y sus funciones, además de llevar a cabo ensayos con diferentes especies indicadoras para obtener datos de toxicidad que puedan ser usados posteriormente en la evaluación de riesgo. Sin embargo, la baja representatividad de algunas de estas especies indicadoras en el área Mediterránea supone una gran limitación. En esta situación, el Panel Científico de Productos Fitosanitarios y sus Residuos de la Autoridad Europea en Seguridad Alimentaria (EFSA), ha señalado la necesidad de modificar los datos ecotoxicológicos requeridos para evaluar los efectos adversos de los productos fitosanitarios de una manera más integrada, incluyendo criterios funcionales y estructurales mediante organismos como bacterias, hongos, protozoos y nematodos. De este modo, la EFSA ha recomendado el uso de los nematodos en la evaluación de la funcionalidad y estructura del suelo. Los nematodos están globalmente distribuidos y son morfológicamente diversos; esto junto con su gran abundancia y diversidad de respuestas a las perturbaciones edáficas, los convierte en indicadores adecuados del estado del suelo. Puesto que los nematodos interaccionan con muchos otros organismos que participan en diferentes eslabones de la red trófica edáfica, jugando papeles importantes en procesos edáficos esenciales en los agroescosistemas, la diversidad de nematodos es, a menudo, usada como indicador biológico de los efectos de las prácticas agrícolas en el estado del suelo. En los últimos años, diferentes índices basados en la comunidad nematológica han facilitado la interpretación de datos complejos sobre la ecología del suelo. Los índices de la red trófica edáfica, basados en la abundancia de grupos funcionales definidos como grupos C-P y grupos tróficos, permiten la evaluación de la funcionalidad de la red trófica edáfica. Por otra parte, la dificultad en la identificación taxonómica de nematodos para explicar su uso limitado como indicadores ecológicos, es ampliamente discutida, y existe cierta controversia en cuanto a la eficacia de los diferentes métodos de identificación de nematodos. Se argumenta que la identificación morfológica es difícil y puede llevar mucho tiempo debido a la falta de expertos especializados, y se afirma que las técnicas moleculares pueden resolver algunas limitaciones de las técnicas morfológicas como la identificación de juveniles. Sin embargo, los métodos de identificación molecular tienen también limitaciones; la mayoría de las bases de datos de secuencias de ADN están fuertemente orientadas hacia los nematodos fitoparásitos, los cuales representan sólo una parte de la comunidad edáfica de nematodos, mientras que hay poca información disponible de nematodos de vida libre a pesar de representar la mayoría de los nematodos edáficos. Este trabajo se centra en el estudio de los efectos de fumigantes edáficos en la funcionalidad del suelo a través del uso de diferentes indicadores basados en la comunidad de nematodos, como los índices de la red trófica, índices de diversidad, abundancia de los taxones más relevantes etc. También se han analizado otros indicadores funcionales relacionados con la supresividad edáfica, el ciclo de nutrientes o la actividad de la microfauna del suelo. En el capítulo 1, la diversidad de nematodos estudiada en una explotación comercial de fresa y sus alrededores durante dos campañas consecutivas en el suroeste español, fue baja en los suelos fumigados con fumigantes químicos ambas campañas y, aunque se observó una recuperación a lo largo de la campaña en la zona tratada, los suelos fumigados mostraron una condición perturbada permanente. La comunidad de nematodos estuvo más asociada al ciclo de nutrientes en la zona sin cultivar que en los suelos cultivados, y se observó poca relación entre la biomasa de las plantas y la estructura de la comunidad de nematodos. Los surcos sin tratar dentro de la zona de cultivo funcionaron como reservorio tanto de nematodos fitoparásitos como beneficiosos; sin embargo estas diferencias entre los surcos y los lomos de cultivo no fueron suficientes para mantener la supresividad edáfica en los surcos. Los suelos tratados fueron menos supresivos que los suelos sin tratar, y se observaron correlaciones positivas entre la supresividad edáfica y la estructura de la red trófica edáfica y la diversidad de nematodos. En el capítulo 2, se evaluaron los efectos de dos pesticidas orgánicos con efecto nematicida y dos nematicidas convencionales sobre las propiedades físico químicas del suelo, la diversidad de nematodos y la biomasa de las plantas en condiciones experimentales en dos tipos de suelo: suelos agrícolas poco diversos y suelos provenientes de una zona de vegetación natural muy diversos. El mayor efecto se observó en el tratamiento con neem, el cual indujo un gran incremento en el número de dauerlarvas en los suelos pobres en nutrientes, mientras que el mismo tratamiento indujo un incremento de poblaciones de nematodos bacterívoros, más estables y menos oportunistas, en los suelos del pinar ricos en materia orgánica. En el capítulo 3, se comparó la eficacia de métodos moleculares (TRFLP, Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) y morfológicos (microscopía de alta resolución) para la identificación de diferentes comunidades denematodos de España e Irlanda. Se compararon estadísticamente las diferencias y similitudes en la diversidad de nematodos, otros indicadores ecológicos y de la red trófica edáfica. Las identificaciones mediante el uso de TRFLP sólo detectó un porcentaje de los taxones presentes en las muestras de suelo identificadas morfológicamente, y los nematodos omnívoros y predadores no fueron detectados molecularmente en nuestro estudio. Los índices calculados en base a los nematodos micróboros mostraron más similitud cuando se identificaron morfológica y molecularmente que los índices basados en grupos tróficos más altos. Nuestros resultados muestran que, al menos con la técnica usada en este estudio, la identificación morfológica de nematodos es una herramienta fiable y más precisa que la identificación molecular, puesto que en general se obtiene una mayor resolución en la identificación de nematodos. En el capítulo 4, se estudiaron también los efectos de los nematicidas químicos sobre la comunidad de nematodos y la biomasa de las plantas en condiciones experimentales de campo, donde se aplicaron en una rotación de cultivo judía-col durante un ciclo de cultivo. Se aplicaron dos tipos de enmiendas orgánicas con el objetivo de mitigar el efecto negativo de los productos fitosanitarios sobre la diversidad edáfica. El efecto de los nematicidas sobre las propiedades del suelo y sobre la comunidad de nematodos fue más agudo que el efecto de las enmiendas. La incorporación de los restos de cosecha al final del ciclo de cultivo de la judía tuvo un gran efecto sobre la comunidad de nematodos, y aunque el número total de nematodos incrementó al final del experimento, se observó una condición perturbada permanente de la red trófica edáfica a lo largo del experimento. ABSTRACT Due to the uncertain future of the soil fumigants most commonly used in the EU, that might involve risks for human/animal health and the environment, there is a need to develop new integrated pest management programs, included as mandatory in the Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009, to control crop diseases. According to this Regulation, evaluating the risk associated to the use of the plant production products (PPP) on non-target soil fauna and their function, and developing assays with different indicator species to obtain toxicity data to be used in the risk evaluation is mandatory. However, the low representativeness of some of these indicator species in the Mediterranean area is a relevant limitation. In this situation, the Scientific Panel of Plant Protection Products and their Residues of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has pointed out the necessity of modifying the ecotoxicological data set required to evaluate non-target effects of PPP in a more integrated way, including structural and functional endpoints with organism such as bacteria, fungi, protists and nematodes. Thus, EFSA has recommended the use of nematodes in the assessment of the functional and structural features of the soil. Nematodes are globally distributed and morphologically diverse, and due to their high abundance and diversity of responses to soil disturbance, they are suitable indicators of the soil condition. Since nematodes interact with many other organisms as participants in several links of the soil food web, playing important roles in essential soil processes in agroecosystems, nematode diversity is often used as a biological indicator of the effects of agricultural practices on soil condition. In the last years, various indices based on soil nematode assemblages, have facilitated the interpretation of complex soil ecological data. Soil food web indices based on the abundances of functional guilds defined by C-P groups and trophic groups, permit evaluating soil food web functioning. On the other hand, the difficulty of nematode taxonomical identification is commonly argued to explain their limited used as ecological indicators, and there is a certain controversy in terms of the efficacy of various nematode identification methods. It is argued that the morphological identification is difficult and time consuming due to the lack of specialist knowledge, and it is claimed that molecular techniques can solve some limitations of morphological techniques such as the identification of juveniles. Nevertheless, molecular identification methods are limited too, since most of the DNA-based databases are strongly oriented towards plant-parasitic nematodes that represent only a fraction of the soil nematode community, while there is little information available on free-living nematodes, which represent most soil nematodes. This work focuses on the study of the effects of soil fumigants on soil functioning through the use of different indicators based on soil nematode community as soil food web indices, diversity indices, the abundance of more relevant taxa etc. Other functional indicators related to soil suppressiveness, nutrient cycling, or the activity of soil microfauna have been also studied. In chapter 1, nematode diversity assessed in a commercial strawberry farm and its surroundings for two consecutive growing seasons in southern Spain, was low in fumigated soils with chemical pesticides throughout both seasons and, although yearly recovery occurred within the treated fields, fumigated soils showed a permanent perturbed condition. The nematode community was more closely associated to nutrient cycling in the non-cropped than in the cropped soils, and the link between plant biomass and nematode community structure was weak. Non-treated furrows within the treated fields were a reservoir of both beneficial and plant-parasitic nematodes, but such difference between furrows and beds was not enough to maintain more suppressive soil assemblages in the furrows. Treated soils were less suppressive than unmanaged soils, and there was a positive and significant correlation between soil suppressiveness and soil food web structure and diversity. In chapter 2, the effects of two organic pesticides with nematicide effect and two chemical nematicides on soil physicalchemical properties, soil nematode diversity and plant biomass in experimental conditions were assessed in two types of soils: low diversity soils from an agricultural farm, and high diversity soils from a natural vegetation area. The larger effect was observed on the neem treatment, which induced a large boost of dauer juveniles in the nutrient-depleted soil, while the same treatment induced the increase of more stable, less opportunistic, populations of generalist bacterivore nematodes in the pine forest soil, rich in organic matter. In chapter 3, comparison of the efficiency of molecular (TRFLP, Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) and morphological (microscopy at high magnification) identification methods was carried out in different nematode communities from five sites of different land uses in Spain and Ireland. Differences and similarities on nematode diversity and other ecological and soil food web indices assessed by both methods, were statistically compared. Molecular identification with TRFLP only detected a percentage of the taxa present in the soil samples identified morphologically, and omnivores and predators were not detected molecularly in our study. Indices involving microbial feeding nematodes were more similar between identification methods than indices involving higher trophic links. Our results show that, at least with the technique used in this study, identifying nematodes morphologically is a reliable and more precise identification tool than molecular identification, since a higher taxonomic resolution is in general obtained compared to TRFLP. In chapter 4, the effect of chemical nematicides on nematode community descriptors and plant biomass was also studied in field conditions in an experimental area in which dazomet and dimethyl disulfide was applied in a bean-cabbage rotation system for a single season. Organic amendments were incorporated into the soil with the aim of mitigate the negative effect of the pesticides on soil diversity. The effect of the nematicides was much more noticeable than the effect of the amendments on soil properties and nematode community descriptors. The incorporation of bean crop residues into the soil at the end of bean crop cycle affected soil nematode community descriptors to a great extent, and although total number of nematodes increased at the end of the experiment, a permanent perturbed soil food web condition was observed along the experiment.

Evaluation of the In desorption during the capped process in diluted nitride In(Ga)As quantum dots

Diluted nitride self-assembled In(Ga)AsN quantum dots (QDs) grown on GaAs substrates are potential candidates to emit in the windows of maximum transmittance for optical fibres (1.3-1.55 μm). In this paper, we analyse the effect of nitrogen addition on the indium desorption occurring during the capping process of InxGa1−xAs QDs (x = l and 0.7). The samples have been grown by molecular beam epitaxy and studied through transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and photoluminescence techniques. The composition distribution inside the dots was determined by statistical moiré analysis and measured by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. First, the addition of nitrogen in In(Ga)As QDs gave rise to a strong redshift in the emission peak, together with a large loss of intensity and monochromaticity. Moreover, these samples showed changes in the QDs morphology as well as an increase in the density of defects. The statistical compositional analysis displayed a normal distribution in InAs QDs with an average In content of 0.7. Nevertheless, the addition of Ga and/or N leads to a bimodal distribution of the Indium content with two separated QD populations. We suggest that the nitrogen incorporation enhances the indium fixation inside the QDs where the indium/gallium ratio plays an important role in this process. The strong redshift observed in the PL should be explained not only by the N incorporation but also by the higher In content inside the QDs

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Seismic Risk Scenarios in Puerto Principe (Haiti). A Tool for Reconstruction and Emergency Planning

The 12 January 2010, an earthquake hit the city of Port-au-Prince, capital of Haiti. The earthquake reached a magnitude Mw 7.0 and the epicenter was located near the town of Léogâne, approximately 25 km west of the capital. The earthquake occurred in the boundary region separating the Caribbean plate and the North American plate. This plate boundary is dominated by left-lateral strike slip motion and compression, and accommodates about 20 mm/y slip, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to the North American plate (DeMets et al., 2000). Initially the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system (EPGFZ), however Hayes et al., (2010) combined seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process involved slip on multiple faults. Besides, the authors showed that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the EPGFZ. In December 2010, a Spanish cooperation project financed by the Politechnical University of Madrid started with a clear objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. One of the tasks of the project was devoted to vulnerability assessment of the current building stock and the estimation of seismic risk scenarios. The study was carried out by following the capacity spectrum method as implemented in the software SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). The method requires a detailed classification of the building stock in predominant building typologies (according to the materials in the structure and walls, number of stories and age of construction) and the use of the building (residential, commercial, etc.). Later, the knowledge of the soil characteristics of the city and the simulation of a scenario earthquake will provide the seismic risk scenarios (damaged buildings). The initial results of the study show that one of the highest sources of uncertainties comes from the difficulty of achieving a precise building typologies classification due to the craft construction without any regulations. Also it is observed that although the occurrence of big earthquakes usually helps to decrease the vulnerability of the cities due to the collapse of low quality buildings and the reconstruction of seismically designed buildings, in the case of Port-au-Prince the seismic risk in most of the districts remains high, showing very vulnerable areas. Therefore the local authorities have to drive their efforts towards the quality control of the new buildings, the reinforcement of the existing building stock, the establishment of seismic normatives and the development of emergency planning also through the education of the population.

Guidance for the development of accessibility evaluation tools following the Unified Software Development Process

Automated and semi-automated accessibility evaluation tools are key to streamline the process of accessibility assessment, and ultimately ensure that software products, contents, and services meet accessibility requirements. Different evaluation tools may better fit different needs and concerns, accounting for a variety of corporate and external policies, content types, invocation methods, deployment contexts, exploitation models, intended audiences and goals; and the specific overall process where they are introduced. This has led to the proliferation of many evaluation tools tailored to specific contexts. However, tool creators, who may be not familiar with the realm of accessibility and may be part of a larger project, lack any systematic guidance when facing the implementation of accessibility evaluation functionalities. Herein we present a systematic approach to the development of accessibility evaluation tools, leveraging the different artifacts and activities of a standardized development process model (the Unified Software Development Process), and providing templates of these artifacts tailored to accessibility evaluation tools. The work presented specially considers the work in progress in this area by the W3C/WAI Evaluation and Report Working Group (ERT WG)

Evaluation of Development Projects: a Process-Centered Approach in the Outskirts of Lima, Peru.

Development cooperation projects work with people involved in processes of change and social transformation. While the main objective of the intervention is the development process itself, the project?s quality will be determined by the way of implementing it. Its success lies in the sustainability of the generated processes and the connection with them by the involved actors. The evaluation analyses both aspects. This article examines the evaluation, under a process approach, of a project on urban agriculture in Lima (Peru). The results show that the use of this approach, which combines different evaluation tools, allows the identification and analysis of the processes with the involved members, providing a better understanding of the real sustainability of the results.

The influence of transparency on self-evaluation as part of the university accreditation process in Peru.

In order to show the choice of transparency as the guiding principle of the accreditation process, the article evaluates its influence on the fundamental subprocess of self-evaluation, thereby confirming that transparency is an essential tool for continuous improvement of academic processes and those of educational quality management. It fosters educational innovation and permits the sustainability of the continuous accreditation process over time, resulting in greater probabilities of university self-regulation through systemization of the process, with the objective of continuous improvement of university degree programs. The article analyzes the influence of transparency on each activity of the self-evaluation process according to the Peruvian accreditation model prepared under the total quality approach, as a reference for other accreditation models, proposing concrete transparency actions and evaluating its influence on the stakeholder groups in the self-evaluation process, as well as on the efficiency and effectiveness of the process. It is concluded that transparency has a positive influence on the training of human capital and the formation of the university?s organizational culture, facilitating dissemination, understanding and involvement of the stakeholder groups in the continuous improvement of accreditation activities and increasing their acceptance of change and commitment to the process. It is confirmed that transparency contributes toward increasing the efficiency index of the self-evaluation process by reducing operating costs through adequate, accessible, timely contribution of information by the stakeholders and through the optimization of the time spent gathering relevant information. In addition, it is concluded that transparency contributes toward increasing the effectiveness index of self-evaluation by facilitating the achievement of its objectives through synthetic, useful, reliable interpretation of the education situation and the formulation of feasible improvement plans based on the adequacy, relevance, visibility, pertinence and truthfulness of the information analyzed.

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.

Métodos diferenciales e interferométricos para la evaluación de deformaciones de la corteza terrestre mediante técnicas GNSS e InSAR = Differential and interferometric methods for evaluation of crustal deformation using GNSS and InSAR techniques

La actividad volcánica interviene en multitud de facetas de la propia actividad humana, no siempre negativas. Sin embargo, son más los motivos de peligrosidad y riesgo que incitan al estudio de la actividad volcánica. Existen razones de seguridad que inciden en el mantenimiento del seguimiento y monitorización de la actividad volcánica para garantizar la vida y la seguridad de los asentamientos antrópicos en las proximidades de los edificios volcánicos. En esta tesis se define e implementa un sistema de monitorización de movimientos de la corteza en las islas de Tenerife y La Palma, donde el impacto social que representa un aumento o variación de la actividad volcánica en las islas es muy severo. Aparte de la alta densidad demográfica del Archipiélago, esta población aumenta significativamente, en diferentes periodos a lo largo del año, debido a la actividad turística que representa la mayor fuente de ingresos de las islas. La población y los centros turísticos se diseminan predominantemente a lo largo de las costas y también a lo largo de los flancos de los edificios volcánicos. Quizá el mantenimiento de estas estructuras sociales y socio-económicas son los motivos más importantes que justifican una monitorización de la actividad volcánica en las Islas Canarias. Recientemente se ha venido trabajando cada vez más en el intento de predecir la actividad volcánica utilizando los nuevos sistemas de monitorización geodésica, puesto que la actividad volcánica se manifiesta anteriormente por deformación de la corteza terrestre y cambios en la fuerza de la gravedad en la zona donde más tarde se registran eventos volcánicos. Los nuevos dispositivos y sensores que se han desarrollado en los últimos años en materias como la geodesia, la observación de la Tierra desde el espacio y el posicionamiento por satélite, han permitido observar y medir tanto la deformación producida en el terreno como los cambios de la fuerza de la gravedad antes, durante y posteriormente a los eventos volcánicos que se producen. Estos nuevos dispositivos y sensores han cambiado las técnicas o metodologías geodésicas que se venían utilizando hasta la aparición de los mismos, renovando métodos clásicos y desarrollando otros nuevos que ya se están afianzando como metodologías probadas y reconocidas para ser usadas en la monitorización volcánica. Desde finales de la década de los noventa del siglo pasado se han venido desarrollando en las Islas Canarias varios proyectos que han tenido como objetivos principales el desarrollo de nuevas técnicas de observación y monitorización por un lado y el diseño de una metodología de monitorización volcánica adecuada, por otro. Se presenta aquí el estudio y desarrollo de técnicas GNSS para la monitorización de deformaciones corticales y su campo de velocidades para las islas de Tenerife y La Palma. En su implementación, se ha tenido en cuenta el uso de la infraestructura geodésica y de monitorización existente en el archipiélago a fin de optimizar costes, además de complementarla con nuevas estaciones para dar una cobertura total a las dos islas. Los resultados obtenidos en los proyectos, que se describen en esta memoria, han dado nuevas perspectivas en la monitorización geodésica de la actividad volcánica y nuevas zonas de interés que anteriormente no se conocían en el entorno de las Islas Canarias. Se ha tenido especial cuidado en el tratamiento y propagación de los errores durante todo el proceso de observación, medida y proceso de los datos registrados, todo ello en aras de cuantificar el grado de fiabilidad de los resultados obtenidos. También en este sentido, los resultados obtenidos han sido verificados con otros procedentes de sistemas de observación radar de satélite, incorporando además a este estudio las implicaciones que el uso conjunto de tecnologías radar y GNSS tendrán en un futuro en la monitorización de deformaciones de la corteza terrestre. ABSTRACT Volcanic activity occurs in many aspects of human activity, and not always in a negative manner. Nonetheless, research into volcanic activity is more likely to be motivated by its danger and risk. There are security reasons that influence the monitoring of volcanic activity in order to guarantee the life and safety of human settlements near volcanic edifices. This thesis defines and implements a monitoring system of movements in the Earth’s crust in the islands of Tenerife and La Palma, where the social impact of an increase (or variation) of volcanic activity is very severe. Aside from the high demographic density of the archipelago, the population increases significantly in different periods throughout the year due to tourism, which represents a major source of revenue for the islands. The population and the tourist centres are mainly spread along the coasts and also along the flanks of the volcanic edifices. Perhaps the preservation of these social and socio-economic structures is the most important reason that justifies monitoring volcanic activity in the Canary Islands. Recently more and more work has been done with the intention of predicting volcanic activity, using new geodesic monitoring systems, since volcanic activity is evident prior to eruption because of a deformation of the Earth’s crust and changes in the force of gravity in the zone where volcanic events will later be recorded. The new devices and sensors that have been developed in recent years in areas such as geodesy, the observation of the Earth from space, and satellite positioning have allowed us to observe and measure the deformation produced in the Earth as well as the changes in the force of gravity before, during, and after the volcanic events occur. The new devices and sensors have changed the geodetic techniques and methodologies that were used previously. The classic methods have been renovated and other newer ones developed that are now vouched for as proven recognised methodologies to be used for volcanic monitoring. Since the end of the 1990s, in the Canary Islands various projects have been developed whose principal aim has been the development of new observation and monitoring techniques on the one hand, and the design of an appropriate volcanic monitoring methodology on the other. The study and development of GNSS techniques for the monitoring of crustal deformations and their velocity field is presented here. To carry out the study, the use of geodetic infrastructure and existing monitoring in the archipelago have been taken into account in order to optimise costs, besides complementing it with new stations for total coverage on both islands. The results obtained in the projects, which are described below, have produced new perspectives in the geodetic monitoring of volcanic activity and new zones of interest which previously were unknown in the environment of the Canary Islands. Special care has been taken with the treatment and propagation of errors during the entire process of observing, measuring, and processing the recorded data. All of this was done in order to quantify the degree of trustworthiness of the results obtained. Also in this sense, the results obtained have been verified with others from satellite radar observation systems, incorporating as well in this study the implications that the joint use of radar technologies and GNSS will have for the future of monitoring deformations in the Earth’s crust.