Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Compatison of S-SI, A-SI and CDTE technologies wording at the same conditions, after the first year of electricity production

Grid connected solar plants are a good opportunity for their use for research as a secondary objective. In countries were feed-in tariffs are still active, it is possible to include in the design of the solar plant elements for its use for research. In the case of the solar plant presented here both objectives are covered. The solar plant of this work is formed by PV modules of three different technologies: Multicrystalline, amorphous and CdTe. In one part of the solar plant, the three technologies are working at the same conditions, not only ambient conditions but also similar voltage and current input to the inverters. Both the commercial and the experimental parts of the solar plant have their own independent inverters with their meters but are finally connected to the same meter to inject. In this work we analyse the results for the first year of operation of the experimental solar plant. Productions of three different technologies in exactly the same conditions are compared and presented. According to the results, all the three technologies have conversion efficiencies dropping when the temperature increases. Amorphous module experiences the lesser reduction, whereas the multicrystalline module suffers the most.

An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure

We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Success possibilities of grid parity in particular cases in the new spanish regulatory framework

During the last 10 years the Spanish photovoltaic market has experienced one of the most important increases worldwide. The continuous raise on the price of the electricity in Spain, as in other European countries, USA and Japan, as well as the decrease of the cost of solar photovoltaic systems along this decade is opening a new way to reach grid parity point in some particular scenarios. A new Spanish legislation is being performed toward selfconsumption, and it is in this new context where the grid parity in a wide sense could be achieved. This work will study different cases in Spain, in order to determine whether grid parity would be possible along 2012. Keywords: grid parity, self-consumption, photovoltaic, net-metering

The first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market

A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.

Comparison of CO2 From Coal Capture Processes and Valorisation Technologies

Coal is the most plentiful and evenly distributed fossil fuel worldwide. Based on current production, it is estimated that the reserves will last approximately 130 years. Its use worldwide has been increasing, mainly due to consumption by emerging countries. CO2 emissions generated by combustion and the repercussions of such on climate change support the view that it could no longer be used. CO2 capture may be the solution to continue using it, which would cater for the growing energy demand worldwide. The aim of this study is to compare different processes concerning CO2 capture that may be economically viable, ultimately showing that coal, a fossil energy source widely distributed around the world, can, as a result of using different CO2 capture processes, be used as a clean source of electricity. Hence, in places where geological hurdles may render the costs of CO2 storage considerably higher, since it might have to travel far, coal may be used for other purposes, thus valorising CO2 within the industrial sector. This research is focused on the technical and economic comparison of the most relevant CO2 capture projects designed in Spain using different existing technologies. The oxyfuel project in Ciuden (Leon, Spain), the IGCC Elcogas, precombustion CO2-capture project (Puertollano, Spain) and the postcombustion project in Carboneras (Almeria, Spain) will be analyzed in order to assess the options available to valorise captured CO2. Valorising captured CO2 may be an adequate solution in areas where, although CO2 capture is still possible, storage is not equally so, thus generating a further benefit. The possible uses of CO2 will be assessed in vegetable growing greenhouses, harnessing CO2 in vegetable life cycles. This will also be used in growing algae for subsequent biodiesel production. Both CO2 capture and valorising will eventually lead to the clean use of coal, which will thus enhance the level of self-supply, aiding the development of electric vehicles, which require large amounts of electricity, as well as improve the level of energy autonomy in countries around the world. Another type of fuel, biodiesel, will also be obtained, without this affecting international food prices.

Valuation of a new entrant in an oligopolistic market, including its option to abandon: A real-life case

The purpose of this paper is to increase current empirical evidence on the relevance of real options for explaining firm investment decisions in oligopolistic markets. We study an actual investment case in the Spanish mobile telephony industry, the entrant in the market of a new operator, Yoigo. We analyze the option to abandon in order to show the relevance of the possibility of selling the company in an oligopolistic market where competitors are not allowed free entrance. The NPV (net present value) of the new entrant is calculated as a starting point. Then, based on the general approach proposed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), a binomial tree is used to model managerial flexibility in discrete time periods, and value the option to abandon. The strike price of the option is calculated based on incremental EBITDA margins due to selling customers or merging with a competitor.

Instrumentation for accelerated life tests of concentrator solar cells

Concentrator photovoltaic is an emergent technology that may be a good economical and efficient alternative for the generation of electricity at a competitive cost. However, the reliability of these new solar cells and systems is still an open issue due to the high-irradiation level they are subjected to as well as the electrical and thermal stresses that they are expected to endure. To evaluate the reliability in a short period of time, accelerated aging tests are essential. Thermal aging tests for concentrator photovoltaic solar cells and systems under illumination are not available because no technical solution to the problem of reaching the working concentration inside a climatic chamber has been available. This work presents an automatic instrumentation system that overcomes the aforementioned limitation. Working conditions have been simulated by forward biasing the solar cells to the current they would handle at the working concentration (in this case, 700 and 1050 times the irradiance at one standard sun). The instrumentation system has been deployed for more than 10 000 h in a thermal aging test for III-V concentrator solar cells, in which the generated power evolution at different temperatures has been monitored. As a result of this test, the acceleration factor has been calculated, thus allowing for the degradation evolution at any temperature in addition to normal working conditions to be obtained.

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

The Economic Value of Residential Land in Historical Areas: An Application of the Residual Method to the Secondary Market

Land value bears significant weight in house prices in historical town centers. An essential aim for regulating the mortgage market, particularly in the financial and property crisis that countries such as Spain are undergoing, is to have at hand objective procedures for its valuation, whatever the conditions (location, construction, planning). Of all the factors contributing to house price make-up, the land is the only one whose value does not depend on acquisition cost, but rather on the location-time binomial. That is to say, the specific circumstances at that point and at the exact moment of valuation. For this reason, the most commonly applied procedure for land valuation in town centers is the use of the residual method: once the selling price of new housing in a district is known, the other necessary costs and expenses of development are deducted, including those of building and the developer’s profit. The value left is that of the land. To apply these procedures it is vital to have figures such as building costs, technical fees, tax costs, etc. But, above all, it is essential to obtain the selling price of the new housing. This is not always feasible, on account of the lack of newbuild development in this location. This shortage of information occurs in historical town cities, where urban renewal is slight due to the heritage-protection policies, and where, nevertheless there is substantial activity in the secondary market. In these circumstances, as an alternative for land valuation in consolidated urban areas, we have the adaptation of the residual method to the particular characteristics of the secondary market. To these ends, there is the proposal for the appreciation of the dwelling which follows, in a backwards direction, the application of traditional depreciation methods proposed by the various valuation manuals and guidelines. The reliability of the results obtained is analyzed by contrasting it with published figures for newly-built properties, according to different rules applied in administrative appraisals in Spain and the incidence of an eventual correction due to conservation state.

Comparison of CO2 from coal captureprocesses and valorisation technologies

Coal is the most plentiful and evenly distributed fossil fuel worldwide. Based on current production, it is estimated that the reserves will last approximately 130 years. Its use worldwide has been increasing, mainly due to consumption by emerging countries. CO2 emissions generated by combustion and the repercussions of such on climate change support the view that it could no longer be used. CO2 capture may be the solution to continue using it, which would cater for the growing energy demand worldwide. The aim of this study is to compare different processes concerning CO2 capture that may be economically viable, ultimately showing that coal, a fossil energy source widely distributed around the world, can, as a result of using different CO2 capture processes, be used as a clean source of electricity. Hence, in places where geological hurdles may render the costs of CO2 storage considerably higher, since it might have to travel far, coal may be used for other purposes, thus valorizing CO2 within the industrial sector. This research is focused on the technical and economic comparison of the most relevant CO2 capture projects designed in Spain using different existing technologies. The oxyfuel project in Ciuden (Leon, Spain), the IGCC Elcogas, precombustion CO2-capture project (Puertollano, Spain) and the postcombustion project in Carboneras (Almeria, Spain) will be analyzed in order to assess the options available to valorizecaptured CO2. Valorizing captured CO2 may be an adequate solution in areas where, although CO2 capture is still possible, storage is not equally so, thus generating a further benefit. The possible uses of CO2 will be assessed in vegetable growing greenhouses, harnessing CO2 in vegetable life cycles. This will also be used in growing algae for subsequent biodiesel production. Both CO2capture and valorizing will eventually lead to the clean use of coal, which will thus enhance the level of self-supply, aiding the development of electric vehicles, which require large amounts of electricity, as well as improve the level of energy autonomy in countries around the world. Another type of fuel, biodiesel, will also be obtained, without this affecting international food prices.

Coal purchase optimization: a review from Spain

The study addresses the need to manage the risk of the purchase price of coal in a power company by changing the management model of the purchasing department. It eliminates the risk of price reduces the cost of buying coal and optimizing the performance of all electricity generation plants belonging to the company. You get more flexibility and optionallity to gain additional benefits both economic and efficiency in the supply to our generation fleet. The tools to achieve the above purpose will be financial derivatives that will be used as elements of management and not as mere speculation in the markets.

Hybrid Contribution of JPEG200 Video Files for Professional Production Centers Reliability and Non-Reliability Transmission File Based in Image Quality Needed

ATM, SDH or satellite have been used in the last century as the contribution network of Broadcasters. However the attractive price of IP networks is changing the infrastructure of these networks in the last decade. Nowadays, IP networks are widely used, but their characteristics do not offer the level of performance required to carry high quality video under certain circumstances. Data transmission is always subject to errors on line. In the case of streaming, correction is attempted at destination, while on transfer of files, retransmissions of information are conducted and a reliable copy of the file is obtained. In the latter case, reception time is penalized because of the low priority this type of traffic on the networks usually has. While in streaming, image quality is adapted to line speed, and line errors result in a decrease of quality at destination, in the file copy the difference between coding speed vs line speed and errors in transmission are reflected in an increase of transmission time. The way news or audiovisual programs are transferred from a remote office to the production centre depends on the time window and the type of line available; in many cases, it must be done in real time (streaming), with the resulting image degradation. The main purpose of this work is the workflow optimization and the image quality maximization, for that reason a transmission model for multimedia files adapted to JPEG2000, is described based on the combination of advantages of file transmission and those of streaming transmission, putting aside the disadvantages that these models have. The method is based on two patents and consists of the safe transfer of the headers and data considered to be vital for reproduction. Aside, the rest of the data is sent by streaming, being able to carry out recuperation operations and error concealment. Using this model, image quality is maximized according to the time window. In this paper, we will first give a briefest overview of the broadcasters requirements and the solutions with IP networks. We will then focus on a different solution for video file transfer. We will take the example of a broadcast center with mobile units (unidirectional video link) and regional headends (bidirectional link), and we will also present a video file transfer file method that satisfies the broadcaster requirements.

Research activities of Spanish antenna groups

When we look at the history of electricity and electromagnetism in Spain we discover that the most important Spanish researchers are generally out of the official institutions or stable research groups until the 20th century [1] [2]. In the 20th century most of the scientific research is done in stable research institutions and universities and the most important electromagnetism research centres in Spain are located in the Faculty of Physics of the most important universities, the National Scientific Research Council (CSIC) and the School for Telecommunication Engineering created in 1923. But the greatest impulse of research in the antenna and radiowave propagation field is done after 1960 reaching the first national URSI conference in 1980. After that year, the relation between groups and the number of research groups is continuously growing and the relation to industry is also increasing. When Spain joins the European research organizations (COST, ERC...) and the European Union in 1985 the research support experience a fast growing and the participation in the European research structures. In the antenna design field, there exist some specializations although most of the groups have dome specific projects in almost all the antenna analysis and design fields. Here, we have selected the most important and characteristic area related to each of the research groups and institutions. The easiest way to classify the research work in antennas is the selection between antenna analysis, design and measurement. After that the selected frequency bands technology, the type of antennas and the related circuits can be a good criterion to describe the variety of research work and specialization between groups.