Spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain

The Ebro River Basin, with around 85 000 km2 and located in NE Spain, is characterized by the high spatial heterogeneity of its geology, topography, climatology and land use. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables studied owing to its non-homogenous behaviour in event and intensity, which creates drought, water runoff and soil erosion with negative environmental and social consequences. In this work we characterized the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (? index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution ( s). A spatial and temporal analysis of the UM parameters is applied to study the possible changes. With this porpoise, 60 daily rainfall series were selected from 132 synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet). These daily rainfall series present a length of 60 years, from 1950 to 2009. Each one of them was subdivided (1950?1970 and 1980?2009) to analyse the difference between the two periods. The range of variation of precipitation amounts and the frequency of dry events between both periods are discussed, as well as the evolution of the UM parameters through the years.

Extensive boiling as a precipitation mechanism for precious and base metal ores, Bienaventurada Mine, Huancavelica, Perú

The Bienaventurada mine operates a polymetallic Ag-Pb-Zn (Cu, Au) vein system of the low sulphidation epithermal type. Fluid inclusions, FI, are abundant in quartz, sphalerite and adularia. FI petrography demonstrates typical primary growth zoning which occurs frequently in crystalline quartz, and defines the most common primary FI. These are usually very small, but several types of primary, P, and secondary, S, FI Assemblages (FIAs) comprising FI of measurable size (3 to > 100 μm) can also be identified through careful petrographic work. The fluids are aqueous and undersaturated, and no evidence of CO2 was found; the degree of fill is usually high (~70-80 %) in the L-rich inclusions, but extremely low in V-rich inclusions. The measured microthermometric values are very consistent in the FIAs selected; they are for the most part roughly similar in the P and S assemblages: the median is typically ~258ºC for total homogenization temperatures, Th, and -1.5 ºC for ice melting temperatures, Tm (corresponding to 2.57 wt% NaCl eq). The widespread occurrence of L-rich and V-rich FI in the same FIA and the consistent Th values point to an extensive boiling system along the vein. In these conditions, Th equals T of trapping, and the ores are assumed to have been precipitated from an aqueous low salinity boiling fluid, of likely meteoric origin, at some 250-280º C, under ~500 m hydrostatic head.

Potencial de la producción de bioelectricidad de las Comarcas Agrarias de la Comunidad de Madrid en base a centeno y triticale

En el presente trabajo se estudia la producción potencial de biomasa procedente de los cultivos de centeno y triticale en las seis comarcas agrarias de la Comunidad de Madrid (CM) y la posibilidad de su aplicación a la producción de bioelectricidad en cada una de ellas. En primer lugar se realiza un estudio bibliográfico de la situación actual de la bioelectricidad. Uno de los principales datos a tener en cuenta es que en el PER 2011- 2020 se estima que el total de potencia eléctrica instalada a partir de biomasa en España en el año 2020 sea de 1.350 MW, unas dos veces y media la existente a finales de 2010. Además, se comenta el estado de la incentivación del uso de biomasa de cultivos energéticos para producción de electricidad, la cual se regula actualmente según el Real Decreto-ley 9/2013, de 12 de Julio, por el que se adoptaron medidas urgentes para garantizar la estabilidad financiera del sistema eléctrico, y se consideran los criterios de sostenibilidad en el uso de biocombustibles sólidos. Se realiza una caracterización de las seis comarcas agrarias que forman la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid: Área Metropolitana, Campiña, Guadarrama, Lozoya- Somosierra, Sur-Occidental y Vegas, la cual consta de dos partes: una descripción de la climatología y otra de la distribución de la superficie dedicada a barbecho y cultivos herbáceos. Se hace una recopilación bibliográfica de los modelos de simulación más representativos de crecimiento de los cultivos (CERES y Cereal YES), así como de ensayos realizados con los cultivos de centeno y triticale para la producción de biomasa y de estudios efectuados mediante herramientas GIS y técnicas de análisis multicriterio para la ubicación de centrales de bioelectricidad y el estudio de la logística de la biomasa. Se propone un modelo de simulación de la productividad de biomasa de centeno y de triticale para la CM, que resulta de la combinación de un modelo de producción de grano en base a datos climatológicos y a la relación biomasa/grano media de ambos cultivos obtenida en una experiencia previa. Los modelos obtenidos responden a las siguientes ecuaciones (siendo TN = temperatura media normalizada a 9,9 ºC y PN = precipitación acumulada normalizada a 496,7 mm): - Producción biomasa centeno (t m.s./ha) = 2,785 * [1,078 * ln(TN + 2*PN) + 2,3256] - Producción biomasa triticale (t m.s./ha) = 2,595 * [2,4495 * ln(TN + 2*PN) + 2,6103] Posteriormente, aplicando los modelos desarrollados, se cuantifica el potencial de producción de biomasa de centeno y triticale en las distintas comarcas agrarias de la CM en cada uno de los escenarios establecidos, que se consideran según el uso de la superficie de barbecho de secano disponible (25%, 50%, 75% y 100%). Las producciones potenciales de biomasa, que se podrían alcanzar en la CM utilizando el 100% de la superficie de barbecho de secano, en base a los cultivos de centeno y triticale, se estimaron en 169.710,72 - 149.811,59 - 140.217,54 - 101.583,01 - 26.961,88 y 1.886,40 t anuales para las comarcas de Campiña - Vegas, Sur - Occidental - Área Metropolitana - Lozoya-Somosierra y Guadarrama, respectivamente. Se realiza un análisis multicriterio basado en la programación de compromiso para definir las comarcas agrarias con mejores características para la ubicación de centrales de bioelectricidad en base a los criterios de potencial de biomasa, infraestructura eléctrica, red de carreteras, espacios protegidos y superficie de núcleos urbanos. Al efectuar el análisis multicriterio, se obtiene la siguiente ordenación jerárquica en base a los criterios establecidos: Campiña, Sur Occidental, Vegas, Área Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra y Guadarrama. Mediante la utilización de técnicas GIS se estudia la localización más conveniente de una central de bioelectricidad de 2,2 MW en cada una de las comarcas agrarias y según el uso de la superficie de barbecho de secano disponible (25%, 50%, 75% y 100%), siempre que exista potencial suficiente. Para el caso de la biomasa de centeno y de triticale en base seca se considera un PCI de 3500 kcal/kg, por lo que se necesitarán como mínimo 17.298,28 toneladas para satisfacer las necesidades de cada una de las centrales de 2,2 MW. Se analiza el potencial máximo de bioelectricidad en cada una de las comarcas agrarias en base a los cultivos de centeno y triticale como productores de biomasa. Según se considere el 25% o el 100% del barbecho de secano para producción de biomasa, la potencia máxima de bioelectricidad que se podría instalar en cada una de las comarcas agrarias variaría entre 5,4 y 21,58 MW en la comarca Campiña, entre 4,76 y 19,05 MW en la comarca Vegas, entre 4,46 y 17,83 MW en la comarca Sur Occidental, entre 3,23 y 12,92 MW en la comarca Área Metropolitana, entre 0,86 y 3,43 MW en la comarca Lozoya Somosierra y entre 0,06 y 0,24 MW en la comarca Guadarrama. La potencia total que se podría instalar en la CM a partir de la biomasa de centeno y triticale podría variar entre 18,76 y 75,06 MW según que se utilice el 25% o el 100% de las tierras de barbecho de secano para su cultivo. ABSTRACT In this work is studied the potential biomass production from rye and triticale crops in the six Madrid Community (MC) agricultural regions and the possibility of its application to the bioelectricity production in each of them. First is performed a bibliographical study of the current situation of bioelectricity. One of the main elements to be considered is that in the PER 2011-2020 is estimated that the total installed electric power from biomass in Spain in 2020 was 1.350 MW, about two and a half times as at end 2010. Also is discussed the status of enhancing the use of biomass energy crops for electricity production, which is currently regulated according to the Real Decreto-ley 9/2013, of July 12, by which urgent measures were adopted to ensure financial stability of the electrical system, and there are considered the sustainability criteria in the use of solid biofuels. A characterization of the six Madrid Community agricultural regions is carried out: Area Metropolitana, Campiña, Guadarrama, Lozoya-Somosierra, Sur-Occidental and Vegas, which consists of two parts: a description of the climatology and another about the distribution of the area under fallow and arable crops. It makes a bibliographic compilation of the most representative crop growth simulation models (CERES and Cereal YES), as well as trials carried out with rye and triticale crops for biomass production and studies conducted by GIS tools and techniques multicriteria analysis for the location of bioelectricity centrals and the study of the logistics of biomass. Is proposed a biomass productivity simulation model for rye and triticale for MC that results from the combination of grain production model based on climatological data and the average relative biomass/grain of both crops obtained in a prior experience. The models obtained correspond to the following equations (where TN = normalized average temperature and PN = normalized accumulated precipitation): - Production rye biomass (t d.m./ha) = 2.785 * [1.078 * ln (TN + 2*PN) + 2.3256] - Production triticale biomass (t d.m./ha) = 2,595 * [2.4495 * ln (TN + 2*PN) + 2.6103] Subsequently, applying the developed models, the biomass potential of the MC agricultural regions is quantified in each of the scenarios established, which are considered as the use of dry fallow area available (25%, 50%, 75 % and 100%). The potential biomass production that can be achieved within the MC using 100% of the rainfed fallow area based on rye and triticale crops, were estimated at 169.710,72 - 149.811,59 - 140.217,54 - 101.583,01 - 26.961,88 and 1.886,40 t annual for the regions of Campiña, Vegas, Sur Occidental, Area Metropolitana, Lozoya- Somosierra and Guadarrama, respectively. A multicriteria analysis is performed, based on compromise programming to define the agricultural regions with better features for the location of bioelectricity centrals, on the basis of biomass potential, electrical infrastructure, road network, protected areas and urban area criteria. Upon multicriteria analysis, is obtained the following hierarchical order based on criteria: Campiña, Sur Occidental, Vegas, Area Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra and Guadarrama. Likewise, through the use of GIS techniques, the most suitable location for a 2,2 MW bioelectricity plant is studied in each of the agricultural regions and according to the use of dry fallow area available (25%, 50% , 75% and 100%), if there is sufficient potential. In the case of biomass rye and triticale dry basis is considered a PCI of 3500 kcal/kg, so it will take at least 17,298.28 t to satisfy the needs of each plant. Is analyzed the maximum bioelectricity potential on each of the agricultural regions on the basis of the rye and triticale crops as biomass producers. As deemed 25% or 100% dry fallow for biomass, the maximum bioelectricity potential varies between 5,4 and 21,58 MW in the Campiña region, between 4,76 and 19,05 MW in the Vegas region, between 4,46 and 17,83 MW in the Sur Occidental region, between 3,23 and 12,92 MW in the Area Metropolitana region, between 0,86 and 3,43 MW in the Lozoya-Somosierra region and between 0,06 and 0,24 MW in the Guadarrama region. The total power that could be installed in the CM from rye and triticale biomass could vary between 18.76 and 75.06 MW if is used the 25% or 100% of fallow land for rainfed crop.

El programa ERHIN y la gestión de embalses en áreas con alta precipitación nival = The ERHIN programme and reservoir management in areas of high nival precipitation

El programa de Evaluación Recursos Hídricos procedentes de la Innivación (ERHIN) ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico con subrutinas que contemplan el proceso de acumulación/fusión de nieve que permite el seguimiento del manto de nieve y su fusión , esencial para la previsión de avenidas en embalses cuyas cuencas vertientes recogen altos porcentajes de precipitación solida. En determinados sectores del territorio español (Pirineos, Cordilleras Cantábrica e Ibérica, Sistema Central y Sierra Nevada) la precipitación nival alcanza valores significativos durante el invierno, que conducen a espesores de nieve persistentes en las cuencas alimentadoras de numerosos embalses y a la fusión rápida de esta nieve en períodos cortos de tiempo, directamente relacionados con la elevación de la isoterma de cero grados en primavera. Estos procesos condicionan la gestión de los mencionados embalses.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.