11 resultados para population model
em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Resumo:
Esta tesis se desarrolla dentro del marco de las comunicaciones satelitales en el innovador campo de los pequeños satélites también llamados nanosatélites o cubesats, llamados así por su forma cubica. Estos nanosatélites se caracterizan por su bajo costo debido a que usan componentes comerciales llamados COTS (commercial off-the-shelf) y su pequeño tamaño como los Cubesats 1U (10cm*10 cm*10 cm) con masa aproximada a 1 kg. Este trabajo de tesis tiene como base una iniciativa propuesta por el autor de la tesis para poner en órbita el primer satélite peruano en mi país llamado chasqui I, actualmente puesto en órbita desde la Estación Espacial Internacional. La experiencia de este trabajo de investigación me llevo a proponer una constelación de pequeños satélites llamada Waposat para dar servicio de monitoreo de sensores de calidad de agua a nivel global, escenario que es usado en esta tesis. Es ente entorno y dadas las características limitadas de los pequeños satélites, tanto en potencia como en velocidad de datos, es que propongo investigar una nueva arquitectura de comunicaciones que permita resolver en forma óptima la problemática planteada por los nanosatélites en órbita LEO debido a su carácter disruptivo en sus comunicaciones poniendo énfasis en las capas de enlace y aplicación. Esta tesis presenta y evalúa una nueva arquitectura de comunicaciones para proveer servicio a una red de sensores terrestres usando una solución basada en DTN (Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking) para comunicaciones espaciales. Adicionalmente, propongo un nuevo protocolo de acceso múltiple que usa una extensión del protocolo ALOHA no ranurado, el cual toma en cuenta la prioridad del trafico del Gateway (ALOHAGP) con un mecanismo de contienda adaptativo. Utiliza la realimentación del satélite para implementar el control de la congestión y adapta dinámicamente el rendimiento efectivo del canal de una manera óptima. Asumimos un modelo de población de sensores finito y una condición de tráfico saturado en el que cada sensor tiene siempre tramas que transmitir. El desempeño de la red se evaluó en términos de rendimiento efectivo, retardo y la equidad del sistema. Además, se ha definido una capa de convergencia DTN (ALOHAGP-CL) como un subconjunto del estándar TCP-CL (Transmission Control Protocol-Convergency Layer). Esta tesis muestra que ALOHAGP/CL soporta adecuadamente el escenario DTN propuesto, sobre todo cuando se utiliza la fragmentación reactiva. Finalmente, esta tesis investiga una transferencia óptima de mensajes DTN (Bundles) utilizando estrategias de fragmentación proactivas para dar servicio a una red de sensores terrestres utilizando un enlace de comunicaciones satelitales que utiliza el mecanismo de acceso múltiple con prioridad en el tráfico de enlace descendente (ALOHAGP). El rendimiento efectivo ha sido optimizado mediante la adaptación de los parámetros del protocolo como una función del número actual de los sensores activos recibidos desde el satélite. También, actualmente no existe un método para advertir o negociar el tamaño máximo de un “bundle” que puede ser aceptado por un agente DTN “bundle” en las comunicaciones por satélite tanto para el almacenamiento y la entrega, por lo que los “bundles” que son demasiado grandes son eliminados o demasiado pequeños son ineficientes. He caracterizado este tipo de escenario obteniendo una distribución de probabilidad de la llegada de tramas al nanosatélite así como una distribución de probabilidad del tiempo de visibilidad del nanosatélite, los cuales proveen una fragmentación proactiva óptima de los DTN “bundles”. He encontrado que el rendimiento efectivo (goodput) de la fragmentación proactiva alcanza un valor ligeramente inferior al de la fragmentación reactiva. Esta contribución permite utilizar la fragmentación activa de forma óptima con todas sus ventajas tales como permitir implantar el modelo de seguridad de DTN y la simplicidad al implementarlo en equipos con muchas limitaciones de CPU y memoria. La implementación de estas contribuciones se han contemplado inicialmente como parte de la carga útil del nanosatélite QBito, que forma parte de la constelación de 50 nanosatélites que se está llevando a cabo dentro del proyecto QB50. ABSTRACT This thesis is developed within the framework of satellite communications in the innovative field of small satellites also known as nanosatellites (<10 kg) or CubeSats, so called from their cubic form. These nanosatellites are characterized by their low cost because they use commercial components called COTS (commercial off-the-shelf), and their small size and mass, such as 1U Cubesats (10cm * 10cm * 10cm) with approximately 1 kg mass. This thesis is based on a proposal made by the author of the thesis to put into orbit the first Peruvian satellite in his country called Chasqui I, which was successfully launched into orbit from the International Space Station in 2014. The experience of this research work led me to propose a constellation of small satellites named Waposat to provide water quality monitoring sensors worldwide, scenario that is used in this thesis. In this scenario and given the limited features of nanosatellites, both power and data rate, I propose to investigate a new communications architecture that allows solving in an optimal manner the problems of nanosatellites in orbit LEO due to the disruptive nature of their communications by putting emphasis on the link and application layers. This thesis presents and evaluates a new communications architecture to provide services to terrestrial sensor networks using a space Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) based solution. In addition, I propose a new multiple access mechanism protocol based on extended unslotted ALOHA that takes into account the priority of gateway traffic, which we call ALOHA multiple access with gateway priority (ALOHAGP) with an adaptive contention mechanism. It uses satellite feedback to implement the congestion control, and to dynamically adapt the channel effective throughput in an optimal way. We assume a finite sensor population model and a saturated traffic condition where every sensor always has frames to transmit. The performance was evaluated in terms of effective throughput, delay and system fairness. In addition, a DTN convergence layer (ALOHAGP-CL) has been defined as a subset of the standard TCP-CL (Transmission Control Protocol-Convergence Layer). This thesis reveals that ALOHAGP/CL adequately supports the proposed DTN scenario, mainly when reactive fragmentation is used. Finally, this thesis investigates an optimal DTN message (bundles) transfer using proactive fragmentation strategies to give service to a ground sensor network using a nanosatellite communications link which uses a multi-access mechanism with priority in downlink traffic (ALOHAGP). The effective throughput has been optimized by adapting the protocol parameters as a function of the current number of active sensors received from satellite. Also, there is currently no method for advertising or negotiating the maximum size of a bundle which can be accepted by a bundle agent in satellite communications for storage and delivery, so that bundles which are too large can be dropped or which are too small are inefficient. We have characterized this kind of scenario obtaining a probability distribution for frame arrivals to nanosatellite and visibility time distribution that provide an optimal proactive fragmentation of DTN bundles. We have found that the proactive effective throughput (goodput) reaches a value slightly lower than reactive fragmentation approach. This contribution allows to use the proactive fragmentation optimally with all its advantages such as the incorporation of the security model of DTN and simplicity in protocol implementation for computers with many CPU and memory limitations. The implementation of these contributions was initially contemplated as part of the payload of the nanosatellite QBito, which is part of the constellation of 50 nanosatellites envisaged under the QB50 project.
Resumo:
We consider a simplified system of a growing colony of cells described as a free boundary problem. The system consists of two hyperbolic equations of first order coupled to an ODE to describe the behavior of the boundary. The system for cell populations includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. By introducing a comparison with solutions of an ODE's system, we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is globally asymptotically stable for a range of parameters under the assumption of radially symmetric initial data.
Resumo:
OntoTag - A Linguistic and Ontological Annotation Model Suitable for the Semantic Web
1. INTRODUCTION. LINGUISTIC TOOLS AND ANNOTATIONS: THEIR LIGHTS AND SHADOWS
Computational Linguistics is already a consolidated research area. It builds upon the results of other two major ones, namely Linguistics and Computer Science and Engineering, and it aims at developing computational models of human language (or natural language, as it is termed in this area). Possibly, its most well-known applications are the different tools developed so far for processing human language, such as machine translation systems and speech recognizers or dictation programs.
These tools for processing human language are commonly referred to as linguistic tools. Apart from the examples mentioned above, there are also other types of linguistic tools that perhaps are not so well-known, but on which most of the other applications of Computational Linguistics are built. These other types of linguistic tools comprise POS taggers, natural language parsers and semantic taggers, amongst others. All of them can be termed linguistic annotation tools.
Linguistic annotation tools are important assets. In fact, POS and semantic taggers (and, to a lesser extent, also natural language parsers) have become critical resources for the computer applications that process natural language. Hence, any computer application that has to analyse a text automatically and ‘intelligently’ will include at least a module for POS tagging. The more an application needs to ‘understand’ the meaning of the text it processes, the more linguistic tools and/or modules it will incorporate and integrate.
However, linguistic annotation tools have still some limitations, which can be summarised as follows:
1. Normally, they perform annotations only at a certain linguistic level (that is, Morphology, Syntax, Semantics, etc.).
2. They usually introduce a certain rate of errors and ambiguities when tagging. This error rate ranges from 10 percent up to 50 percent of the units annotated for unrestricted, general texts.
3. Their annotations are most frequently formulated in terms of an annotation schema designed and implemented ad hoc.
A priori, it seems that the interoperation and the integration of several linguistic tools into an appropriate software architecture could most likely solve the limitations stated in (1). Besides, integrating several linguistic annotation tools and making them interoperate could also minimise the limitation stated in (2). Nevertheless, in the latter case, all these tools should produce annotations for a common level, which would have to be combined in order to correct their corresponding errors and inaccuracies. Yet, the limitation stated in (3) prevents both types of integration and interoperation from being easily achieved.
In addition, most high-level annotation tools rely on other lower-level annotation tools and their outputs to generate their own ones. For example, sense-tagging tools (operating at the semantic level) often use POS taggers (operating at a lower level, i.e., the morphosyntactic) to identify the grammatical category of the word or lexical unit they are annotating. Accordingly, if a faulty or inaccurate low-level annotation tool is to be used by other higher-level one in its process, the errors and inaccuracies of the former should be minimised in advance. Otherwise, these errors and inaccuracies would be transferred to (and even magnified in) the annotations of the high-level annotation tool.
Therefore, it would be quite useful to find a way to
(i) correct or, at least, reduce the errors and the inaccuracies of lower-level linguistic tools;
(ii) unify the annotation schemas of different linguistic annotation tools or, more generally speaking, make these tools (as well as their annotations) interoperate.
Clearly, solving (i) and (ii) should ease the automatic annotation of web pages by means of linguistic tools, and their transformation into Semantic Web pages (Berners-Lee, Hendler and Lassila, 2001). Yet, as stated above, (ii) is a type of interoperability problem. There again, ontologies (Gruber, 1993; Borst, 1997) have been successfully applied thus far to solve several interoperability problems. Hence, ontologies should help solve also the problems and limitations of linguistic annotation tools aforementioned.
Thus, to summarise, the main aim of the present work was to combine somehow these separated approaches, mechanisms and tools for annotation from Linguistics and Ontological Engineering (and the Semantic Web) in a sort of hybrid (linguistic and ontological) annotation model, suitable for both areas. This hybrid (semantic) annotation model should (a) benefit from the advances, models, techniques, mechanisms and tools of these two areas; (b) minimise (and even solve, when possible) some of the problems found in each of them; and (c) be suitable for the Semantic Web. The concrete goals that helped attain this aim are presented in the following section.
2. GOALS OF THE PRESENT WORK
As mentioned above, the main goal of this work was to specify a hybrid (that is, linguistically-motivated and ontology-based) model of annotation suitable for the Semantic Web (i.e. it had to produce a semantic annotation of web page contents). This entailed that the tags included in the annotations of the model had to (1) represent linguistic concepts (or linguistic categories, as they are termed in ISO/DCR (2008)), in order for this model to be linguistically-motivated; (2) be ontological terms (i.e., use an ontological vocabulary), in order for the model to be ontology-based; and (3) be structured (linked) as a collection of ontology-based
Resumo:
Probabilistic modeling is the de�ning characteristic of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) which determines their behavior and performance in optimization. Regularization is a well-known statistical technique used for obtaining an improved model by reducing the generalization error of estimation, especially in high-dimensional problems. `1-regularization is a type of this technique with the appealing variable selection property which results in sparse model estimations. In this thesis, we study the use of regularization techniques for model learning in EDAs. Several methods for regularized model estimation in continuous domains based on a Gaussian distribution assumption are presented, and analyzed from di�erent aspects when used for optimization in a high-dimensional setting, where the population size of EDA has a logarithmic scale with respect to the number of variables. The optimization results obtained for a number of continuous problems with an increasing number of variables show that the proposed EDA based on regularized model estimation performs a more robust optimization, and is able to achieve signi�cantly better results for larger dimensions than other Gaussian-based EDAs. We also propose a method for learning a marginally factorized Gaussian Markov random �eld model using regularization techniques and a clustering algorithm. The experimental results show notable optimization performance on continuous additively decomposable problems when using this model estimation method. Our study also covers multi-objective optimization and we propose joint probabilistic modeling of variables and objectives in EDAs based on Bayesian networks, speci�cally models inspired from multi-dimensional Bayesian network classi�ers. It is shown that with this approach to modeling, two new types of relationships are encoded in the estimated models in addition to the variable relationships captured in other EDAs: objectivevariable and objective-objective relationships. An extensive experimental study shows the e�ectiveness of this approach for multi- and many-objective optimization. With the proposed joint variable-objective modeling, in addition to the Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to obtain an estimation of the multi-objective problem structure. Finally, the study of multi-objective optimization based on joint probabilistic modeling is extended to noisy domains, where the noise in objective values is represented by intervals. A new version of the Pareto dominance relation for ordering the solutions in these problems, namely �-degree Pareto dominance, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. We show that the ranking methods based on this dominance relation can result in competitive performance of EDAs with respect to the quality of the approximated Pareto sets. This dominance relation is then used together with a method for joint probabilistic modeling based on `1-regularization for multi-objective feature subset selection in classi�cation, where six di�erent measures of accuracy are considered as objectives with interval values. The individual assessment of the proposed joint probabilistic modeling and solution ranking methods on datasets with small-medium dimensionality, when using two di�erent Bayesian classi�ers, shows that comparable or better Pareto sets of feature subsets are approximated in comparison to standard methods.
Resumo:
The presented work proposes a new approach for anomaly detection. This approach is based on changes in a population of evolving agents under stress. If conditions are appropriate, changes in the population (modeled by the bioindicators) are representative of the alterations to the environment. This approach, based on an ecological view, improves functionally traditional approaches to the detection of anomalies. To verify this assertion, experiments based on Network Intrussion Detection Systems are presented. The results are compared with the behaviour of other bioinspired approaches and machine learning techniques.
Resumo:
El suelo salino impone un estrés abiótico importante que causa graves problemas en la agricultura ya que la mayoría de los cultivos se ven afectados por la salinidad debido a efectos osmóticos y tóxicos. Por ello, la contaminación y la escasez de agua dulce, la salinización progresiva de tierras y el aumento exponencial de la población humana representan un grave problema que amenaza la seguridad alimentaria mundial para las generaciones futuras. Por lo tanto, aumentar la tolerancia a la salinidad de los cultivos es un objetivo estratégico e ineludible para garantizar el suministro de alimentos en el futuro. Mantener una óptima homeostasis de K+ en plantas que sufren estrés salino es un objetivo importante en el proceso de obtención de plantas tolerantes a la salinidad. Aunque el modelo de la homeostasis de K+ en las plantas está razonablemente bien descrito en términos de entrada de K+, muy poco se sabe acerca de los genes implicados en la salida de K+ o de su liberación desde la vacuola. En este trabajo se pretende aclarar algunos de los mecanismos implicados en la homeostasis de K+ en plantas. Para ello se eligió la briofita Physcomitrella patens, una planta no vascular de estructura simple y de fase haploide dominante que, entre muchas otras cualidades, hacen que sea un modelo ideal. Lo más importante es que no sólo P. patens es muy tolerante a altas concentraciones de Na+, sino que también su posición filogenética en la evolución de las plantas abre la posibilidad de estudiar los cambios claves que, durante el curso de la evolución, se produjeron en las diversas familias de los transportadores de K+. Se han propuesto varios transportadores de cationes como candidatos que podrían tener un papel en la salida de K+ o su liberación desde la vacuola, especialmente miembros de la familia CPA2 que contienen las familias de transportadores KEA y CHX. En este estudio se intenta aumentar nuestra comprensión de las funciones de los transportadores de CHX en las células de las plantas usando P. patens, como ya se ha dicho. En esta especie, se han identificado cuatro genes CHX, PpCHX1-4. Dos de estos genes, PpCHX1 y PpCHX2, se expresan aproximadamente al mismo nivel que el gen PpACT5, y los otros dos genes muestran una expresión muy baja. La expresión de PpCHX1 y PpCHX2 en mutantes de Escherichia coli defectivos en el transporte de K+ restauraron el crecimiento de esta cepa en medios con bajo contenido de K+, lo que viii sugiere que la entrada de K+ es energizada por un mecanismo de simporte con H+. Por otra parte, estos transportadores suprimieron el defecto asociado a la mutación kha1 en Saccharomyces cerevisiae, lo que sugiere que podrían mediar un antiporte en K+/H+. La proteína PpCHX1-GFP expresada transitoriamente en protoplastos de P. patens co-localizó con un marcador de Golgi. En experimentos similares, la proteína PpCHX2-GFP localizó aparentemente en la membrana plasmática y tonoplasto. Se construyeron las líneas mutantes simples de P. patens ΔPpchx1 y ΔPpchx2, y también el mutante doble ΔPpchx2 ΔPphak1. Los mutantes simples crecieron normalmente en todas las condiciones ensayadas y mostraron flujos de entrada normales de K+ y Rb+; la mutación ΔPpchx2 no aumentó el defecto de las plantas ΔPphak1. En experimentos a largo plazo, las plantas ΔPpchx2 mostraron una retención de Rb+ ligeramente superior que las plantas silvestres, lo que sugiere que PpCHX2 promueve la transferencia de Rb+ desde la vacuola al citosol o desde el citosol al medio externo, actuando en paralelo con otros transportadores. Sugerimos que transportadores de K+ de varias familias están involucrados en la homeostasis de pH de orgánulos ya sea mediante antiporte K+/H+ o simporte K+-H+.ix ABSTRACT Soil salinity is a major abiotic stress causing serious problems in agriculture as most crops are affected by it. Moreover, the contamination and shortage of freshwater, progressive land salinization and exponential increase of human population aggravates the problem implying that world food security may not be ensured for the next generations. Thus, a strategic and an unavoidable goal would be increasing salinity tolerance of plant crops to secure future food supply. Maintaining an optimum K+ homeostasis in plants under salinity stress is an important trait to pursue in the process of engineering salt tolerant plants. Although the model of K+ homeostasis in plants is reasonably well described in terms of K+ influx, very little is known about the genes implicated in K+ efflux or release from the vacuole. In this work, we aim to clarify some of the mechanisms involved in K+ homeostasis in plants. For this purpose, we chose the bryophyte plant Physcomitrella patens, a nonvascular plant of simple structure and dominant haploid phase that, among many other characteristics, makes it an ideal model. Most importantly, not only P. patens is very tolerant to high concentrations of Na+, but also its phylogenetic position in land plant evolution opens the possibility to study the key changes that occurred in K+ transporter families during the course of evolution. Several cation transporter candidates have been proposed to have a role in K+ efflux or release from the vacuole especially members of the CPA2 family which contains the KEA and CHX transporter families. We intended in this study to increase our understanding of the functions of CHX transporters in plant cells using P. patens, in which four CHX genes have been identified, PpCHX1-4. Two of these genes, PpCHX1 and PpCHX2, are expressed at approximately the same level as the PpACT5 gene, but the other two genes show an extremely low expression. PpCHX1 and PpCHX2 restored growth of Escherichia coli mutants on low K+-containing media, suggesting they mediated K+ uptake that may be energized by symport with H+. In contrast, these genes suppressed the defect associated to the kha1 mutation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, which suggest that they might mediate K+/H+ antiport. PpCHX1-GFP protein transiently expressed in P. patens protoplasts co-localized with a Golgi marker. In similar experiments, the PpCHX2-GFP protein appeared to localize to tonoplast and plasma x membrane. We constructed the ΔPpchx1 and ΔPpchx2 single mutant lines, and the ΔPpchx2 ΔPphak1 double mutant. Single mutant plants grew normally under all the conditions tested and exhibited normal K+ and Rb+ influxes; the ΔPpchx2 mutation did not increase the defect of ΔPphak1 plants. In long-term experiments, ΔPpchx2 plants showed a slightly higher Rb+ retention than wild type plants, which suggests that PpCHX2 mediates the transfer of Rb+ from either the vacuole to the cytosol or from the cytosol to the external medium in parallel with other transporters. We suggest that K+ transporters of several families are involved in the pH homeostasis of organelles by mediating either K+/H+ antiport or K+-H+ symport.
Resumo:
Antecedentes Europa vive una situación insostenible. Desde el 2008 se han reducido los recursos de los gobiernos a raíz de la crisis económica. El continente Europeo envejece con ritmo constante al punto que se prevé que en 2050 habrá sólo dos trabajadores por jubilado [54]. A esta situación se le añade el aumento de la incidencia de las enfermedades crónicas, relacionadas con el envejecimiento, cuyo coste puede alcanzar el 7% del PIB de un país [51]. Es necesario un cambio de paradigma. Una nueva manera de cuidar de la salud de las personas: sustentable, eficaz y preventiva más que curativa. Algunos estudios abogan por el cuidado personalizado de la salud (pHealth). En este modelo las prácticas médicas son adaptadas e individualizadas al paciente, desde la detección de los factores de riesgo hasta la personalización de los tratamientos basada en la respuesta del individuo [81]. El cuidado personalizado de la salud está asociado a menudo al uso de las tecnologías de la información y comunicación (TICs) que, con su desarrollo exponencial, ofrecen oportunidades interesantes para la mejora de la salud. El cambio de paradigma hacia el pHealth está lentamente ocurriendo, tanto en el ámbito de la investigación como en la industria, pero todavía no de manera significativa. Existen todavía muchas barreras relacionadas a la economía, a la política y la cultura. También existen barreras puramente tecnológicas, como la falta de sistemas de información interoperables [199]. A pesar de que los aspectos de interoperabilidad están evolucionando, todavía hace falta un diseño de referencia especialmente direccionado a la implementación y el despliegue en gran escala de sistemas basados en pHealth. La presente Tesis representa un intento de organizar la disciplina de la aplicación de las TICs al cuidado personalizado de la salud en un modelo de referencia, que permita la creación de plataformas de desarrollo de software para simplificar tareas comunes de desarrollo en este dominio. Preguntas de investigación RQ1 >Es posible definir un modelo, basado en técnicas de ingeniería del software, que represente el dominio del cuidado personalizado de la salud de una forma abstracta y representativa? RQ2 >Es posible construir una plataforma de desarrollo basada en este modelo? RQ3 >Esta plataforma ayuda a los desarrolladores a crear sistemas pHealth complejos e integrados? Métodos Para la descripción del modelo se adoptó el estándar ISO/IEC/IEEE 42010por ser lo suficientemente general y abstracto para el amplio enfoque de esta tesis [25]. El modelo está definido en varias partes: un modelo conceptual, expresado a través de mapas conceptuales que representan las partes interesadas (stakeholders), los artefactos y la información compartida; y escenarios y casos de uso para la descripción de sus funcionalidades. El modelo fue desarrollado de acuerdo a la información obtenida del análisis de la literatura, incluyendo 7 informes industriales y científicos, 9 estándares, 10 artículos en conferencias, 37 artículos en revistas, 25 páginas web y 5 libros. Basándose en el modelo se definieron los requisitos para la creación de la plataforma de desarrollo, enriquecidos por otros requisitos recolectados a través de una encuesta realizada a 11 ingenieros con experiencia en la rama. Para el desarrollo de la plataforma, se adoptó la metodología de integración continua [74] que permitió ejecutar tests automáticos en un servidor y también desplegar aplicaciones en una página web. En cuanto a la metodología utilizada para la validación se adoptó un marco para la formulación de teorías en la ingeniería del software [181]. Esto requiere el desarrollo de modelos y proposiciones que han de ser validados dentro de un ámbito de investigación definido, y que sirvan para guiar al investigador en la búsqueda de la evidencia necesaria para justificarla. La validación del modelo fue desarrollada mediante una encuesta online en tres rondas con un número creciente de invitados. El cuestionario fue enviado a 134 contactos y distribuido en algunos canales públicos como listas de correo y redes sociales. El objetivo era evaluar la legibilidad del modelo, su nivel de cobertura del dominio y su potencial utilidad en el diseño de sistemas derivados. El cuestionario incluía preguntas cuantitativas de tipo Likert y campos para recolección de comentarios. La plataforma de desarrollo fue validada en dos etapas. En la primera etapa se utilizó la plataforma en un experimento a pequeña escala, que consistió en una sesión de entrenamiento de 12 horas en la que 4 desarrolladores tuvieron que desarrollar algunos casos de uso y reunirse en un grupo focal para discutir su uso. La segunda etapa se realizó durante los tests de un proyecto en gran escala llamado HeartCycle [160]. En este proyecto un equipo de diseñadores y programadores desarrollaron tres aplicaciones en el campo de las enfermedades cardio-vasculares. Una de estas aplicaciones fue testeada en un ensayo clínico con pacientes reales. Al analizar el proyecto, el equipo de desarrollo se reunió en un grupo focal para identificar las ventajas y desventajas de la plataforma y su utilidad. Resultados Por lo que concierne el modelo que describe el dominio del pHealth, la parte conceptual incluye una descripción de los roles principales y las preocupaciones de los participantes, un modelo de los artefactos TIC que se usan comúnmente y un modelo para representar los datos típicos que son necesarios formalizar e intercambiar entre sistemas basados en pHealth. El modelo funcional incluye un conjunto de 18 escenarios, repartidos en: punto de vista de la persona asistida, punto de vista del cuidador, punto de vista del desarrollador, punto de vista de los proveedores de tecnologías y punto de vista de las autoridades; y un conjunto de 52 casos de uso repartidos en 6 categorías: actividades de la persona asistida, reacciones del sistema, actividades del cuidador, \engagement" del usuario, actividades del desarrollador y actividades de despliegue. Como resultado del cuestionario de validación del modelo, un total de 65 personas revisó el modelo proporcionando su nivel de acuerdo con las dimensiones evaluadas y un total de 248 comentarios sobre cómo mejorar el modelo. Los conocimientos de los participantes variaban desde la ingeniería del software (70%) hasta las especialidades médicas (15%), con declarado interés en eHealth (24%), mHealth (16%), Ambient Assisted Living (21%), medicina personalizada (5%), sistemas basados en pHealth (15%), informática médica (10%) e ingeniería biomédica (8%) con una media de 7.25_4.99 años de experiencia en estas áreas. Los resultados de la encuesta muestran que los expertos contactados consideran el modelo fácil de leer (media de 1.89_0.79 siendo 1 el valor más favorable y 5 el peor), suficientemente abstracto (1.99_0.88) y formal (2.13_0.77), con una cobertura suficiente del dominio (2.26_0.95), útil para describir el dominio (2.02_0.7) y para generar sistemas más específicos (2_0.75). Los expertos también reportan un interés parcial en utilizar el modelo en su trabajo (2.48_0.91). Gracias a sus comentarios, el modelo fue mejorado y enriquecido con conceptos que faltaban, aunque no se pudo demonstrar su mejora en las dimensiones evaluadas, dada la composición diferente de personas en las tres rondas de evaluación. Desde el modelo, se generó una plataforma de desarrollo llamada \pHealth Patient Platform (pHPP)". La plataforma desarrollada incluye librerías, herramientas de programación y desarrollo, un tutorial y una aplicación de ejemplo. Se definieron cuatro módulos principales de la arquitectura: el Data Collection Engine, que permite abstraer las fuentes de datos como sensores o servicios externos, mapeando los datos a bases de datos u ontologías, y permitiendo interacción basada en eventos; el GUI Engine, que abstrae la interfaz de usuario en un modelo de interacción basado en mensajes; y el Rule Engine, que proporciona a los desarrolladores un medio simple para programar la lógica de la aplicación en forma de reglas \if-then". Después de que la plataforma pHPP fue utilizada durante 5 años en el proyecto HeartCycle, 5 desarrolladores fueron reunidos en un grupo de discusión para analizar y evaluar la plataforma. De estas evaluaciones se concluye que la plataforma fue diseñada para encajar las necesidades de los ingenieros que trabajan en la rama, permitiendo la separación de problemas entre las distintas especialidades, y simplificando algunas tareas de desarrollo como el manejo de datos y la interacción asíncrona. A pesar de ello, se encontraron algunos defectos a causa de la inmadurez de algunas tecnologías empleadas, y la ausencia de algunas herramientas específicas para el dominio como el procesado de datos o algunos protocolos de comunicación relacionados con la salud. Dentro del proyecto HeartCycle la plataforma fue utilizada para el desarrollo de la aplicación \Guided Exercise", un sistema TIC para la rehabilitación de pacientes que han sufrido un infarto del miocardio. El sistema fue testeado en un ensayo clínico randomizado en el cual a 55 pacientes se les dio el sistema para su uso por 21 semanas. De los resultados técnicos del ensayo se puede concluir que, a pesar de algunos errores menores prontamente corregidos durante el estudio, la plataforma es estable y fiable. Conclusiones La investigación llevada a cabo en esta Tesis y los resultados obtenidos proporcionan las respuestas a las tres preguntas de investigación que motivaron este trabajo: RQ1 Se ha desarrollado un modelo para representar el dominio de los sistemas personalizados de salud. La evaluación hecha por los expertos de la rama concluye que el modelo representa el dominio con precisión y con un balance apropiado entre abstracción y detalle. RQ2 Se ha desarrollado, con éxito, una plataforma de desarrollo basada en el modelo. RQ3 Se ha demostrado que la plataforma es capaz de ayudar a los desarrolladores en la creación de software pHealth complejos. Las ventajas de la plataforma han sido demostradas en el ámbito de un proyecto de gran escala, aunque el enfoque genérico adoptado indica que la plataforma podría ofrecer beneficios también en otros contextos. Los resultados de estas evaluaciones ofrecen indicios de que, ambos, el modelo y la plataforma serán buenos candidatos para poderse convertir en una referencia para futuros desarrollos de sistemas pHealth. ABSTRACT Background Europe is living in an unsustainable situation. The economic crisis has been reducing governments' economic resources since 2008 and threatening social and health systems, while the proportion of older people in the European population continues to increase so that it is foreseen that in 2050 there will be only two workers per retiree [54]. To this situation it should be added the rise, strongly related to age, of chronic diseases the burden of which has been estimated to be up to the 7% of a country's gross domestic product [51]. There is a need for a paradigm shift, the need for a new way of caring for people's health, shifting the focus from curing conditions that have arisen to a sustainable and effective approach with the emphasis on prevention. Some advocate the adoption of personalised health care (pHealth), a model where medical practices are tailored to the patient's unique life, from the detection of risk factors to the customization of treatments based on each individual's response [81]. Personalised health is often associated to the use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), that, with its exponential development, offers interesting opportunities for improving healthcare. The shift towards pHealth is slowly taking place, both in research and in industry, but the change is not significant yet. Many barriers still exist related to economy, politics and culture, while others are purely technological, like the lack of interoperable information systems [199]. Though interoperability aspects are evolving, there is still the need of a reference design, especially tackling implementation and large scale deployment of pHealth systems. This thesis contributes to organizing the subject of ICT systems for personalised health into a reference model that allows for the creation of software development platforms to ease common development issues in the domain. Research questions RQ1 Is it possible to define a model, based on software engineering techniques, for representing the personalised health domain in an abstract and representative way? RQ2 Is it possible to build a development platform based on this model? RQ3 Does the development platform help developers create complex integrated pHealth systems? Methods As method for describing the model, the ISO/IEC/IEEE 42010 framework [25] is adopted for its generality and high level of abstraction. The model is specified in different parts: a conceptual model, which makes use of concept maps, for representing stakeholders, artefacts and shared information, and in scenarios and use cases for the representation of the functionalities of pHealth systems. The model was derived from literature analysis, including 7 industrial and scientific reports, 9 electronic standards, 10 conference proceedings papers, 37 journal papers, 25 websites and 5 books. Based on the reference model, requirements were drawn for building the development platform enriched with a set of requirements gathered in a survey run among 11 experienced engineers. For developing the platform, the continuous integration methodology [74] was adopted which allowed to perform automatic tests on a server and also to deploy packaged releases on a web site. As a validation methodology, a theory building framework for SW engineering was adopted from [181]. The framework, chosen as a guide to find evidence for justifying the research questions, imposed the creation of theories based on models and propositions to be validated within a scope. The validation of the model was conducted as an on-line survey in three validation rounds, encompassing a growing number of participants. The survey was submitted to 134 experts of the field and on some public channels like relevant mailing lists and social networks. Its objective was to assess the model's readability, its level of coverage of the domain and its potential usefulness in the design of actual, derived systems. The questionnaires included quantitative Likert scale questions and free text inputs for comments. The development platform was validated in two scopes. As a small-scale experiment, the platform was used in a 12 hours training session where 4 developers had to perform an exercise consisting in developing a set of typical pHealth use cases At the end of the session, a focus group was held to identify benefits and drawbacks of the platform. The second validation was held as a test-case study in a large scale research project called HeartCycle the aim of which was to develop a closed-loop disease management system for heart failure and coronary heart disease patients [160]. During this project three applications were developed by a team of programmers and designers. One of these applications was tested in a clinical trial with actual patients. At the end of the project, the team was interviewed in a focus group to assess the role the platform had within the project. Results For what regards the model that describes the pHealth domain, its conceptual part includes a description of the main roles and concerns of pHealth stakeholders, a model of the ICT artefacts that are commonly adopted and a model representing the typical data that need to be formalized among pHealth systems. The functional model includes a set of 18 scenarios, divided into assisted person's view, caregiver's view, developer's view, technology and services providers' view and authority's view, and a set of 52 Use Cases grouped in 6 categories: assisted person's activities, system reactions, caregiver's activities, user engagement, developer's activities and deployer's activities. For what concerns the validation of the model, a total of 65 people participated in the online survey providing their level of agreement in all the assessed dimensions and a total of 248 comments on how to improve and complete the model. Participants' background spanned from engineering and software development (70%) to medical specialities (15%), with declared interest in the fields of eHealth (24%), mHealth (16%), Ambient Assisted Living (21%), Personalized Medicine (5%), Personal Health Systems (15%), Medical Informatics (10%) and Biomedical Engineering (8%) with an average of 7.25_4.99 years of experience in these fields. From the analysis of the answers it is possible to observe that the contacted experts considered the model easily readable (average of 1.89_0.79 being 1 the most favourable scoring and 5 the worst), sufficiently abstract (1.99_0.88) and formal (2.13_0.77) for its purpose, with a sufficient coverage of the domain (2.26_0.95), useful for describing the domain (2.02_0.7) and for generating more specific systems (2_0.75) and they reported a partial interest in using the model in their job (2.48_0.91). Thanks to their comments, the model was improved and enriched with concepts that were missing at the beginning, nonetheless it was not possible to prove an improvement among the iterations, due to the diversity of the participants in the three rounds. From the model, a development platform for the pHealth domain was generated called pHealth Patient Platform (pHPP). The platform includes a set of libraries, programming and deployment tools, a tutorial and a sample application. The main four modules of the architecture are: the Data Collection Engine, which allows abstracting sources of information like sensors or external services, mapping data to databases and ontologies, and allowing event-based interaction and filtering, the GUI Engine, which abstracts the user interface in a message-like interaction model, the Workow Engine, which allows programming the application's user interaction ows with graphical workows, and the Rule Engine, which gives developers a simple means for programming the application's logic in the form of \if-then" rules. After the 5 years experience of HeartCycle, partially programmed with pHPP, 5 developers were joined in a focus group to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the platform. The view that emerged from the training course and the focus group was that the platform is well-suited to the needs of the engineers working in the field, it allowed the separation of concerns among the different specialities and it simplified some common development tasks like data management and asynchronous interaction. Nevertheless, some deficiencies were pointed out in terms of a lack of maturity of some technological choices, and for the absence of some domain-specific tools, e.g. for data processing or for health-related communication protocols. Within HeartCycle, the platform was used to develop part of the Guided Exercise system, a composition of ICT tools for the physical rehabilitation of patients who suffered from myocardial infarction. The system developed using the platform was tested in a randomized controlled clinical trial, in which 55 patients used the system for 21 weeks. The technical results of this trial showed that the system was stable and reliable. Some minor bugs were detected, but these were promptly corrected using the platform. This shows that the platform, as well as facilitating the development task, can be successfully used to produce reliable software. Conclusions The research work carried out in developing this thesis provides responses to the three three research questions that were the motivation for the work. RQ1 A model was developed representing the domain of personalised health systems, and the assessment of experts in the field was that it represents the domain accurately, with an appropriate balance between abstraction and detail. RQ2 A development platform based on the model was successfully developed. RQ3 The platform has been shown to assist developers create complex pHealth software. This was demonstrated within the scope of one large-scale project, but the generic approach adopted provides indications that it would offer benefits more widely. The results of these evaluations provide indications that both the model and the platform are good candidates for being a reference for future pHealth developments.
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The problem of interdependence between housing and commuting in a city has been analysed within the framework of welfare economics. Uncertain changes overtime in the working population has been considered by means of a dynamic, probabilistic model. The characteristics of irreversibility and durability in city building have been explicitly dealt with. The ultimate objective is that the model after further development will be an auxiliary tool in city planning.
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In this paper, a model (called the elliptic model) is proposed to estimate the number of social ties between two locations using population data in a similar manner to how transportation research deals with trips. To overcome the asymmetry of transportation models, the new model considers that the number of relationships between two locations is inversely proportional to the population in the ellipse whose foci are in these two locations. The elliptic model is evaluated by considering the anonymous communications patterns of 25 million users from three different countries, where a location has been assigned to each user based on their most used phone tower or billing zip code. With this information, spatial social networks are built at three levels of resolution: tower, city and region for each of the three countries. The elliptic model achieves a similar performance when predicting communication fluxes as transportation models do when predicting trips. This shows that human relationships are influenced at least as much by geography as is human mobility.
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En la situación actual donde los sistemas TI sanitarios son diversos con modelos que van desde soluciones predominantes, adoptadas y creadas por grandes organizaciones, hasta soluciones a medida desarrolladas por cualquier empresa de la competencia para satisfacer necesidades concretas. Todos estos sistemas se encuentran bajo similares presiones financieras, no sólo de las condiciones económicas mundiales actuales y el aumento de los costes sanitarios, sino también bajo las presiones de una población que ha adoptado los avances tecnológicos actuales, y demanda una atención sanitaria más personalizable a la altura de esos avances tecnológicos que disfruta en otros ámbitos. El objeto es desarrollar un modelo de negocio orientado al soporte del intercambio de información en el ámbito clínico. El objetivo de este modelo de negocio es aumentar la competitividad dentro de este sector sin la necesidad de recurrir a expertos en estándares, proporcionando perfiles técnicos cualificados menos costosos con la ayuda de herramientas que simplifiquen el uso de los estándares de interoperabilidad. Se hará uso de especificaciones abiertas ya existentes como FHIR, que publica documentación y tutoriales bajo licencias abiertas. La principal ventaja que nos encontramos es que ésta especificación presenta un giro en la concepción actual de la disposición de información clínica, vista hasta ahora como especial por el requerimiento de estándares más complejos que solucionen cualquier caso por específico que sea. Ésta especificación permite hacer uso de la información clínica a través de tecnologías web actuales (HTTP, HTML, OAuth2, JSON, XML) que todo el mundo puede usar sin un entrenamiento particular para crear y consumir esta información. Partiendo por tanto de un mercado con una integración de la información casi inexistente, comparada con otros entornos actuales, hará que el gasto en integración clínica aumente dramáticamente, dejando atrás los desafíos técnicos cuyo gasto retrocederá a un segundo plano. El gasto se centrará en las expectativas de lo que se puede obtener en la tendencia actual de la personalización de los datos clínicos de los pacientes, con acceso a los registros de instituciones junto con datos ‘sociales/móviles/big data’.---ABSTRACT---In the current situation IT health systems are diverse, with models varying from predominant solutions adopted and created by large organizations, to ad-hoc solutions developed by any company to meet specific needs. However, all these systems are under similar financial pressures, not only from current global economic conditions and increased health care costs, but also under pressure from a population that has embraced the current technological advances, and demand a more personalized health care, up to those enjoyed by technological advances in other areas. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a business model aimed at the provision of information exchange within the clinical domain. It is intended to increase competitiveness in the health IT sector without the need for experts in standards, providing qualified technical profiles less expensively with the help of tools that simplify the use of interoperability standards. Open specifications, like FHIR, will be used in order to enable interoperability between systems. The main advantage found within FHIR is that introduces a shift in the current conception of available clinical information. So far seen, the clinical information domain IT systems, as a special requirement for more complex standards that address any specific case. This specification allows the use of clinical information through existing web technologies (HTTP, HTML, OAuth2, JSON and XML), which everyone can use with no particular training to create and consume this information. The current situation in the sector is that the integration of information is almost nonexistent, compared to current trends. Spending in IT health systems will increase dramatically within clinical integration for the next years, leaving the technical challenges whose costs will recede into the background. The investment on this area will focus on the expectations of what can be obtained in the current trend of personalization of clinical data of patients with access to records of institutions with ‘social /mobile /big data’.
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Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un fenómeno global de envejecimiento en la población. Esta tendencia se puede observar prácticamente en todos los países del mundo y se debe principalmente a los avances en la medicina, y a los descensos en las tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad. El envejecimiento de la población tiene un gran impacto en la salud de los ciudadanos, y a menudo es la causa de aparición de enfermedades crónicas. Este tipo de enfermedades supone una amenaza y una carga importantes para la sociedad, especialmente en aspectos como la mortalidad o los gastos en los sistemas sanitarios. Entre las enfermedades cardiovasculares, la insuficiencia cardíaca es probablemente la condición con mayor prevalencia y afecta a 23-26 millones de personas en todo el mundo. Normalmente, la insuficiencia cardíaca presenta un mal pronóstico y una tasa de supervivencia bajas, en algunos casos peores que algún tipo de cáncer. Además, suele ser la causa de hospitalizaciones frecuentes y es una de las enfermedades más costosas para los sistemas sanitarios. La tendencia al envejecimiento de la población y la creciente incidencia de las enfermedades crónicas están llevando a una situación en la que los sistemas de salud no son capaces de hacer frente a la demanda de la sociedad. Los servicios de salud existentes tendrán que adaptarse para ser efectivos y sostenibles en el futuro. Es necesario identificar nuevos paradigmas de cuidado de pacientes, así como mecanismos para la provisión de servicios que ayuden a transformar estos sistemas sanitarios. En este contexto, esta tesis se plantea la búsqueda de soluciones, basadas en las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación (TIC), que contribuyan a realizar la transformación en los sistemas sanitarios. En concreto, la tesis se centra en abordar los problemas de una de las enfermedades con mayor impacto en estos sistemas: la insuficiencia cardíaca. Las siguientes hipótesis constituyen la base para la realización de este trabajo de investigación: 1. Es posible definir un modelo basado en el paradigma de lazo cerrado y herramientas TIC que formalice el diseño de mejores servicios para pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. 2. El modelo de lazo cerrado definido se puede utilizar para definir un servicio real que ayude a gestionar la insuficiencia cardíaca crónica. 3. La introducción, la adopción y el uso de un servicio basado en el modelo definido se traducirá en mejoras en el estado de salud de los pacientes que sufren insuficiencia cardíaca. a. La utilización de un sistema basado en el modelo de lazo cerrado definido mejorará la experiencia del usuario de los pacientes. La definición del modelo planteado se ha basado en el estándar ISO / EN 13940- Sistema de conceptos para dar soporte a la continuidad de la asistencia. Comprende un conjunto de conceptos, procesos, flujos de trabajo, y servicios como componentes principales, y representa una formalización de los servicios para los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. Para evaluar el modelo definido se ha definido un servicio real basado en el mismo, además de la implementación de un sistema de apoyo a dicho servicio. El diseño e implementación de dicho sistema se realizó siguiendo la metodología de Diseño Orientado a Objetivos. El objetivo de la evaluación consistía en investigar el efecto que tiene un servicio basado en el modelo de lazo cerrado sobre el estado de salud de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. La evaluación se realizó en el marco de un estudio clínico observacional. El análisis de los resultados ha comprendido métodos de análisis cuantitativos y cualitativos. El análisis cuantitativo se ha centrado en determinar el estado de salud de los pacientes en base a datos objetivos (obtenidos en pruebas de laboratorio o exámenes médicos). Para realizar este análisis se definieron dos índices específicos: el índice de estabilidad y el índice de la evolución del estado de salud. El análisis cualitativo ha evaluado la autopercepción del estado de salud de los pacientes en términos de calidad de vida, auto-cuidado, el conocimiento, la ansiedad y la depresión, así como niveles de conocimiento. Se ha basado en los datos recogidos mediante varios cuestionarios o instrumentos estándar (i.e. EQ-5D, la Escala de Ansiedad y Depresión (HADS), el Cuestionario de Cardiomiopatía de Kansas City (KCCQ), la Escala Holandesa de Conocimiento de Insuficiencia Cardíaca (DHFKS), y la Escala Europea de Autocuidado en Insuficiencia Cardíaca (EHFScBS), así como cuestionarios dedicados no estandarizados de experiencia de usuario. Los resultados obtenidos en ambos análisis, cuantitativo y cualitativo, se compararon con el fin de evaluar la correlación entre el estado de salud objetivo y subjetivo de los pacientes. Los resultados de la validación demostraron que el modelo propuesto tiene efectos positivos en el cuidado de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca y contribuye a mejorar su estado de salud. Asimismo, ratificaron al modelo como instrumento válido para la definición de servicios mejorados para la gestión de esta enfermedad. ABSTRACT During the last decades we have witnessed a global aging phenomenon in the population. This can be observed in practically every country in the world, and it is mainly caused by the advances in medicine, and the decrease of mortality and fertility rates. Population aging has an important impact on citizens’ health and it is often the cause for chronic diseases, which constitute global burden and threat to the society in terms of mortality and healthcare expenditure. Among chronic diseases, Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) or Heart Failure (HF) is probably the one with highest prevalence, affecting between 23 and 26 million people worldwide. Heart failure is a chronic, long-term and serious condition with very poor prognosis and worse survival rates than some type of cancers. Additionally, it is often the cause of frequent hospitalizations and one of the most expensive conditions for the healthcare systems. The aging trends in the population and the increasing incidence of chronic diseases are leading to a situation where healthcare systems are not able to cope with the society demand. Current healthcare services will have to be adapted and redefined in order to be effective and sustainable in the future. There is a need to find new paradigms for patients’ care, and to identify new mechanisms for services’ provision that help to transform the healthcare systems. In this context, this thesis aims to explore new solutions, based on ICT, that contribute to achieve the needed transformation within the healthcare systems. In particular, it focuses on addressing the problems of one of the diseases with higher impact within these systems: Heart Failure. The following hypotheses represent the basis to the elaboration of this research: 1. It is possible to define a model based on a closed-loop paradigm and ICT tools that formalises the design of enhanced healthcare services for chronic heart failure patients. 2. The described closed-loop model can be exemplified in a real service that supports the management of chronic heart failure disease. 3. The introduction, adoption and use of a service based on the outlined model will result in improvements in the health status of patients suffering heart failure. 4. The user experience of patients when utilizing a system based on the defined closed-loop model will be enhanced. The definition of the closed-loop model for health care support of heart failure patients have been based on the standard ISO/EN 13940 System of concepts to support continuity of care. It includes a set of concept, processes and workflows, and services as main components, and it represent a formalization of services for heart failure patients. In order to be validated, the proposed closed-loop model has been instantiated into a real service and a supporting IT system. The design and implementation of the system followed the user centred design methodology Goal Oriented Design. The validation, that included an observational clinical study, aimed to investigate the effect that a service based on the closed-loop model had on heart failure patients’ health status. The analysis of results comprised quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. The quantitative analysis was focused on determining the health status of patients based on objective data (obtained in lab tests or physical examinations). Two specific indexes where defined and considered in this analysis: the stability index and the health status evolution index. The qualitative analysis assessed the self-perception of patients’ health status in terms of quality of life, self-care, knowledge, anxiety and depression, as well as knowledge levels. It was based on the data gathered through several standard instruments (i.e. EQ-5D, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, the Dutch Heart Failure Knowledge Scale, and the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale) as well as dedicated non-standardized user experience questionnaires. The results obtained in both analyses, quantitative and qualitative, were compared in order to assess the correlation between the objective and subjective health status of patients. The results of the validation showed that the proposed model contributed to improve the health status of the patients and had a positive effect on the patients’ care. It also proved that the model is a valid instrument for designing enhanced healthcare services for heart failure patients.
