Simulation model for the study of overhead rail current collector systems dynamics, focused on the design of a new conductor rail

Overhead rigid conductor arrangements for current collection for railway traction have some advantages compared to other, more conventional, energy supply systems. They are simple, robust and easily maintained, not to mention their flexibility as to the required height for installation, which makes them particularly suitable for use in subway infrastructures. Nevertheless, due to the increasing speeds of new vehicles running on modern subway lines, a more efficient design is required for this kind of system. In this paper, the authors present a dynamic analysis of overhead conductor rail systems focused on the design of a new conductor profile with a dynamic behaviour superior to that of the system currently in use. This means that either an increase in running speed can be attained, which at present does not exceed 110 km/h, or an increase in the distance between the rigid catenary supports with the ensuing saving in installation costs. This study has been carried out using simulation techniques. The ANSYS programme has been used for the finite element modelling and the SIMPACK programme for the elastic multibody systems analysis.

Improved design of an overhead rail current conductor for application in underground lines

Overhead rail current collector systems for railway traction offer certain features, such as low installation height and reduced maintenance, which make them predominantly suitable for use in underground train infrastructures. Due to the increased demands of modern catenary systems and higher running speeds of new vehicles, a more capable design of the conductor rail is needed. A new overhead conductor rail has been developed and its design has been patented [13]. Modern simulation and modelling techniques were used in the development approach. The new conductor rail profile has a dynamic behaviour superior to that of the system currently in use. Its innovative design permits either an increase of catenary support spacing or a higher vehicle running speed. Both options ensure savings in installation or operating costs. The simulation model used to optimise the existing conductor rail profile included both a finite element model of the catenary and a three-dimensional multi-body system model of the pantograph. The contact force that appears between pantograph and catenary was obtained in simulation. A sensitivity analysis of the key parameters that influence in catenary dynamics was carried out, finally leading to the improved design.

On the allowance for support costs in Prager-Rozvany’ optimal layout theory

A recent study by Rozvany and Sokól discussed an important topic in structural design: the allowance for support costs in the optimization process. This paper examines a frequently used kind of support —that of simple foundation with horizontal reaction by friction— that appears no covered for the Authors’ approach. A simple example is examined to illustrate the case and to apply the Authors’ method and the standard design method.

The value of cultural assets. Maintenance Costs and economic sustainability at heritage

Under the 12th International Conference on Building Materials and Components is inserted this communication related to the field of management of those assets that constitute the Spanish Cultural Heritage and maintenance. This work is related to the field of management of those assets that constitute the Spanish Cultural Heritage which share an artistic or historical background. The conservation and maintenance become a social demand necessary for the preservation of public values, requiring the investment of necessary resources. The legal protection involves a number of obligations and rights to ensure the conservation and heritage protection. The duty of maintenance and upkeep exceeds the useful life the property that must endure more for their cultural value for its usability. The establishment of the necessary conditions to prevent deterioration and precise in order to fulfill its social function, seeking to prolong the life of the asset, preserving their physical integrity and its ability to convey the values protected. This obligation implies a substantial financial effort to the holder of the property, either public or private entity, addressing a problem of economic sustainability. Economic exploitation, with the aim of contributing to their well-maintained, is sometimes the best way to get resources. The work will include different lines of research with the following objectives. - Establishment of processes for assessing total costs over the building life cycle (LCC), during the planning stages or maintenance budgets to determine the most advantageous operating system. - Relationship between the value of property and maintenance costs, and establishing a sensitivity analysis.

Architectural design and construction costs, tools towards territorial sustainability

This paper is presented in CIB: Management and Innovation Sustainable Built Environment 2011, as the study and analysis of the residential model of a rural area from the Iberian Peninsula, specifically applied to the case of the province of Cáceres, in the autonomous region of Extremadura, in Spain. To this end, from a database made up of building projects whose real costs are known, it is intended to establish the links of the different parameters studied through the corresponding functions of statistical analysis. One of the main objectives of this process is constituted by the possibility of establishing those design variables of higher economic importance, so as to keep an economic control of these parameters, generally geometrical and typological, from the very start of the project. And, in general, a higher optimization of resources in the construction of dwellings in the rural environment from their design is intended.

Dynamic analysis using finite elements to calculate the critical wear section of the contact wire in suburban railway overhead conductor rails

The purpose of this study is to determine the critical wear levels of the contact wire of the catenary on metropolitan lines. The study has focussed on the zones of contact wire where localised wear is produced, normally associated with the appearance of electric arcs. To this end, a finite element model has been developed to study the dynamics of pantograph-catenary interaction. The model includes a zone of localised wear and a singularity in the contact wire in order to simulate the worst case scenario from the point of view of stresses. In order to consider the different stages in the wire wear process, different depths and widths of the localised wear zone were defined. The results of the dynamic simulations performed for each stage of wear let the area of the minimum resistant section of the contact wire be determined for which stresses are greater than the allowable stress. The maximum tensile stress reached in the contact wire shows a clear sensitivity to the size of the local wear zone, defined by its width and depth. In this way, if the wear measurements taken with an overhead line recording vehicle are analysed, it will be possible to calculate the potential breakage risk of the wire. A strong dependence of the tensile forces of the contact wire has also been observed. These results will allow priorities to be set for replacing the most critical sections of wire, thereby making maintenance much more efficient. The results obtained show that the wire replacement criteria currently borne in mind have turned out to be appropriate, although in some wear scenarios these criteria could be adjusted even more, and so prolong the life cycle of the contact wire.

Pantograph wear assesment in overhead conductor rail systems

Wear is the phenomenon that determines the lifetime of the collector strips. Since wear is an inevitable effect on pantograph-catenary systems, it is necessary to determine optimal operating conditions that can mitigate its effects. In this study we have performed a simulation model of the pantograph-overhead conductor rail system which allows the evaluation of the dynamic conditions of the system through the contact force. With these results we have made an evaluation of the quality of current collection, a calculation of the pantograph wear and a definition of the optimal operation conditions of the pantograph-overhead conductor rail system.

Simulation techniques for design of overhead conductor rail lines for speeds over 140 km/h

In overhead conductor rail lines, aluminium beams are usually mounted with support spacing between 8 and 12 meters, to limit the maximum vertical deflection in the center of the span. This small support spacing limits the use of overhead conductor rail to tunnels, therefore it has been used almost exclusively in metropolitan networks, with operation speeds below 110 km/h. Nevertheless, due to the lower cost of maintenance required for this electrification system, some railway administrations are beginning to install it in some tunnels on long-distance lines, requesting higher operation speeds [1]. Some examples are the Barcelona and Madrid suburban networks (Spain), and recent lines in Turkey and Malaysia. In order to adapt the design of the overhead conductor for higher speeds (V > 160 km/h), particular attention must be paid to the geometry of the conductor rail in critical zones as overlaps, crossings and, especially, transitions between conductor rail and conventional catenary, since the use of overhead conductor rail is limited to tunnels, as already mentioned. This paper describes simulation techniques developed in order to take into account these critical zones. Furthermore, some specific simulations results are presented that have been used to analyze and optimizes the geometry of this special zones to get a better current collection quality, in a real suburban network. This paper presents the work undertaken by the Railways Technology Research Centre (CITEF), having over 10 years of experience in railways research [1-4].

Environmental analysis of residential building facades through energy consumption, GHG emissions and costs

This paper provides some results on the potential to minimize environmental impacts in residential buildings life cycle, through façade design strategies, analyzing also their impact on costs from a lifecycle perspective. On one hand, it assesses the environmental damage produced by the materials of the building envelope, and on the other, the benefits they offer in terms of habitability and liveability in the use phase. The analysis includes several design parameters used both for rehabilitation of existing facades, as for new facades, trying to cover various determinants and proposing project alternatives. With this study we intended to contribute to address the energy challenges for the coming years, trying also to propose pathways for innovative solutions for the building envelope.

On-Chip Thermal Monitoring: Design, Placement and Interconnection of Temperature Sensors

La temperatura es una preocupación que juega un papel protagonista en el diseño de circuitos integrados modernos. El importante aumento de las densidades de potencia que conllevan las últimas generaciones tecnológicas ha producido la aparición de gradientes térmicos y puntos calientes durante el funcionamiento normal de los chips. La temperatura tiene un impacto negativo en varios parámetros del circuito integrado como el retardo de las puertas, los gastos de disipación de calor, la fiabilidad, el consumo de energía, etc. Con el fin de luchar contra estos efectos nocivos, la técnicas de gestión dinámica de la temperatura (DTM) adaptan el comportamiento del chip en función en la información que proporciona un sistema de monitorización que mide en tiempo de ejecución la información térmica de la superficie del dado. El campo de la monitorización de la temperatura en el chip ha llamado la atención de la comunidad científica en los últimos años y es el objeto de estudio de esta tesis. Esta tesis aborda la temática de control de la temperatura en el chip desde diferentes perspectivas y niveles, ofreciendo soluciones a algunos de los temas más importantes. Los niveles físico y circuital se cubren con el diseño y la caracterización de dos nuevos sensores de temperatura especialmente diseñados para los propósitos de las técnicas DTM. El primer sensor está basado en un mecanismo que obtiene un pulso de anchura variable dependiente de la relación de las corrientes de fuga con la temperatura. De manera resumida, se carga un nodo del circuito y posteriormente se deja flotando de tal manera que se descarga a través de las corrientes de fugas de un transistor; el tiempo de descarga del nodo es la anchura del pulso. Dado que la anchura del pulso muestra una dependencia exponencial con la temperatura, la conversión a una palabra digital se realiza por medio de un contador logarítmico que realiza tanto la conversión tiempo a digital como la linealización de la salida. La estructura resultante de esta combinación de elementos se implementa en una tecnología de 0,35 _m. El sensor ocupa un área muy reducida, 10.250 nm2, y consume muy poca energía, 1.05-65.5nW a 5 muestras/s, estas cifras superaron todos los trabajos previos en el momento en que se publicó por primera vez y en el momento de la publicación de esta tesis, superan a todas las implementaciones anteriores fabricadas en el mismo nodo tecnológico. En cuanto a la precisión, el sensor ofrece una buena linealidad, incluso sin calibrar; se obtiene un error 3_ de 1,97oC, adecuado para tratar con las aplicaciones de DTM. Como se ha explicado, el sensor es completamente compatible con los procesos de fabricación CMOS, este hecho, junto con sus valores reducidos de área y consumo, lo hacen especialmente adecuado para la integración en un sistema de monitorización de DTM con un conjunto de monitores empotrados distribuidos a través del chip. Las crecientes incertidumbres de proceso asociadas a los últimos nodos tecnológicos comprometen las características de linealidad de nuestra primera propuesta de sensor. Con el objetivo de superar estos problemas, proponemos una nueva técnica para obtener la temperatura. La nueva técnica también está basada en las dependencias térmicas de las corrientes de fuga que se utilizan para descargar un nodo flotante. La novedad es que ahora la medida viene dada por el cociente de dos medidas diferentes, en una de las cuales se altera una característica del transistor de descarga |la tensión de puerta. Este cociente resulta ser muy robusto frente a variaciones de proceso y, además, la linealidad obtenida cumple ampliamente los requisitos impuestos por las políticas DTM |error 3_ de 1,17oC considerando variaciones del proceso y calibrando en dos puntos. La implementación de la parte sensora de esta nueva técnica implica varias consideraciones de diseño, tales como la generación de una referencia de tensión independiente de variaciones de proceso, que se analizan en profundidad en la tesis. Para la conversión tiempo-a-digital, se emplea la misma estructura de digitalización que en el primer sensor. Para la implementación física de la parte de digitalización, se ha construido una biblioteca de células estándar completamente nueva orientada a la reducción de área y consumo. El sensor resultante de la unión de todos los bloques se caracteriza por una energía por muestra ultra baja (48-640 pJ) y un área diminuta de 0,0016 mm2, esta cifra mejora todos los trabajos previos. Para probar esta afirmación, se realiza una comparación exhaustiva con más de 40 propuestas de sensores en la literatura científica. Subiendo el nivel de abstracción al sistema, la tercera contribución se centra en el modelado de un sistema de monitorización que consiste de un conjunto de sensores distribuidos por la superficie del chip. Todos los trabajos anteriores de la literatura tienen como objetivo maximizar la precisión del sistema con el mínimo número de monitores. Como novedad, en nuestra propuesta se introducen nuevos parámetros de calidad aparte del número de sensores, también se considera el consumo de energía, la frecuencia de muestreo, los costes de interconexión y la posibilidad de elegir diferentes tipos de monitores. El modelo se introduce en un algoritmo de recocido simulado que recibe la información térmica de un sistema, sus propiedades físicas, limitaciones de área, potencia e interconexión y una colección de tipos de monitor; el algoritmo proporciona el tipo seleccionado de monitor, el número de monitores, su posición y la velocidad de muestreo _optima. Para probar la validez del algoritmo, se presentan varios casos de estudio para el procesador Alpha 21364 considerando distintas restricciones. En comparación con otros trabajos previos en la literatura, el modelo que aquí se presenta es el más completo. Finalmente, la última contribución se dirige al nivel de red, partiendo de un conjunto de monitores de temperatura de posiciones conocidas, nos concentramos en resolver el problema de la conexión de los sensores de una forma eficiente en área y consumo. Nuestra primera propuesta en este campo es la introducción de un nuevo nivel en la jerarquía de interconexión, el nivel de trillado (o threshing en inglés), entre los monitores y los buses tradicionales de periféricos. En este nuevo nivel se aplica selectividad de datos para reducir la cantidad de información que se envía al controlador central. La idea detrás de este nuevo nivel es que en este tipo de redes la mayoría de los datos es inútil, porque desde el punto de vista del controlador sólo una pequeña cantidad de datos |normalmente sólo los valores extremos| es de interés. Para cubrir el nuevo nivel, proponemos una red de monitorización mono-conexión que se basa en un esquema de señalización en el dominio de tiempo. Este esquema reduce significativamente tanto la actividad de conmutación sobre la conexión como el consumo de energía de la red. Otra ventaja de este esquema es que los datos de los monitores llegan directamente ordenados al controlador. Si este tipo de señalización se aplica a sensores que realizan conversión tiempo-a-digital, se puede obtener compartición de recursos de digitalización tanto en tiempo como en espacio, lo que supone un importante ahorro de área y consumo. Finalmente, se presentan dos prototipos de sistemas de monitorización completos que de manera significativa superan la características de trabajos anteriores en términos de área y, especialmente, consumo de energía. Abstract Temperature is a first class design concern in modern integrated circuits. The important increase in power densities associated to recent technology evolutions has lead to the apparition of thermal gradients and hot spots during run time operation. Temperature impacts several circuit parameters such as speed, cooling budgets, reliability, power consumption, etc. In order to fight against these negative effects, dynamic thermal management (DTM) techniques adapt the behavior of the chip relying on the information of a monitoring system that provides run-time thermal information of the die surface. The field of on-chip temperature monitoring has drawn the attention of the scientific community in the recent years and is the object of study of this thesis. This thesis approaches the matter of on-chip temperature monitoring from different perspectives and levels, providing solutions to some of the most important issues. The physical and circuital levels are covered with the design and characterization of two novel temperature sensors specially tailored for DTM purposes. The first sensor is based upon a mechanism that obtains a pulse with a varying width based on the variations of the leakage currents on the temperature. In a nutshell, a circuit node is charged and subsequently left floating so that it discharges away through the subthreshold currents of a transistor; the time the node takes to discharge is the width of the pulse. Since the width of the pulse displays an exponential dependence on the temperature, the conversion into a digital word is realized by means of a logarithmic counter that performs both the timeto- digital conversion and the linearization of the output. The structure resulting from this combination of elements is implemented in a 0.35_m technology and is characterized by very reduced area, 10250 nm2, and power consumption, 1.05-65.5 nW at 5 samples/s, these figures outperformed all previous works by the time it was first published and still, by the time of the publication of this thesis, they outnumber all previous implementations in the same technology node. Concerning the accuracy, the sensor exhibits good linearity, even without calibration it displays a 3_ error of 1.97oC, appropriate to deal with DTM applications. As explained, the sensor is completely compatible with standard CMOS processes, this fact, along with its tiny area and power overhead, makes it specially suitable for the integration in a DTM monitoring system with a collection of on-chip monitors distributed across the chip. The exacerbated process fluctuations carried along with recent technology nodes jeop-ardize the linearity characteristics of the first sensor. In order to overcome these problems, a new temperature inferring technique is proposed. In this case, we also rely on the thermal dependencies of leakage currents that are used to discharge a floating node, but now, the result comes from the ratio of two different measures, in one of which we alter a characteristic of the discharging transistor |the gate voltage. This ratio proves to be very robust against process variations and displays a more than suficient linearity on the temperature |1.17oC 3_ error considering process variations and performing two-point calibration. The implementation of the sensing part based on this new technique implies several issues, such as the generation of process variations independent voltage reference, that are analyzed in depth in the thesis. In order to perform the time-to-digital conversion, we employ the same digitization structure the former sensor used. A completely new standard cell library targeting low area and power overhead is built from scratch to implement the digitization part. Putting all the pieces together, we achieve a complete sensor system that is characterized by ultra low energy per conversion of 48-640pJ and area of 0.0016mm2, this figure outperforms all previous works. To prove this statement, we perform a thorough comparison with over 40 works from the scientific literature. Moving up to the system level, the third contribution is centered on the modeling of a monitoring system consisting of set of thermal sensors distributed across the chip. All previous works from the literature target maximizing the accuracy of the system with the minimum number of monitors. In contrast, we introduce new metrics of quality apart form just the number of sensors; we consider the power consumption, the sampling frequency, the possibility to consider different types of monitors and the interconnection costs. The model is introduced in a simulated annealing algorithm that receives the thermal information of a system, its physical properties, area, power and interconnection constraints and a collection of monitor types; the algorithm yields the selected type of monitor, the number of monitors, their position and the optimum sampling rate. We test the algorithm with the Alpha 21364 processor under several constraint configurations to prove its validity. When compared to other previous works in the literature, the modeling presented here is the most complete. Finally, the last contribution targets the networking level, given an allocated set of temperature monitors, we focused on solving the problem of connecting them in an efficient way from the area and power perspectives. Our first proposal in this area is the introduction of a new interconnection hierarchy level, the threshing level, in between the monitors and the traditional peripheral buses that applies data selectivity to reduce the amount of information that is sent to the central controller. The idea behind this new level is that in this kind of networks most data are useless because from the controller viewpoint just a small amount of data |normally extreme values| is of interest. To cover the new interconnection level, we propose a single-wire monitoring network based on a time-domain signaling scheme that significantly reduces both the switching activity over the wire and the power consumption of the network. This scheme codes the information in the time domain and allows a straightforward obtention of an ordered list of values from the maximum to the minimum. If the scheme is applied to monitors that employ TDC, digitization resource sharing is achieved, producing an important saving in area and power consumption. Two prototypes of complete monitoring systems are presented, they significantly overcome previous works in terms of area and, specially, power consumption.

Do charges to freight trucks and trains in the European Union reflect their social marginal costs? Application to the case of Spain

In the last few years, the European Union (EU) has become greatly concerned about the environmental costs of road transport in Europe as a result of the constant growth in the market share of trucks and the steady decline in the market share of railroads. In order to reverse this trend, the EU is promoting the implementation of additional charges for heavy goods vehicles (HGV) on the trunk roads of the EU countries. However, the EU policy is being criticised because it does not address the implementation of charges to internalise the external costs produced by automobiles and other transport modes such as railroad. In this paper, we first describe the evolution of the HGV charging policy in the EU, and then assess its practical implementation across different European countries. Second, and of greater significance, by using the case study of Spain, we evaluate to what extent the current fees on trucks and trains reflect their social marginal costs, and consequently lead to an allocative-efficient outcome. We found that for the average case in Spain the truck industry meets more of the marginal social cost produced by it than does the freight railroad industry. The reason for this lies in the large sums of money paid by truck companies in fuel taxes, and the subsidies that continue to be granted by the government to the railroads.

Reducing communication overhead for cooperative localization using nonparametric belief propagation

A number of methods for cooperative localization has been proposed, but most of them provide only location estimate, without associated uncertainty. On the other hand, nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), which provides approximated posterior distributions of the location estimates, is expensive mostly because of the transmission of the particles. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to reduce communication overhead for cooperative positioning using NBP. It is based on: i) communication of the beliefs (instead of the messages), ii) approximation of the belief with Gaussian mixture of very few components, and iii) censoring. According to our simulations results, these modifications reduce significantly communication overhead while providing the estimates almost as accurate as the transmission of the particles.

Emissions and economic costs of cycling compact fluorescent lamps with integrated ballasts

This paper proposes a way to quantify the emissions of mercury (Hg) and CO2 associated with the manufacture and operation of compact fluorescent lamps with integrated ballasts (CFLis), as well as the economic cost of using them under different operating cycles. The main purpose of this paper is to find simple criteria for reducing the polluting emissions under consideration and the economic cost of CFLi to a minimum. A lifetime model is proposed that allows the emissions and costs to be described as a function of degradation from turning CFLi on and their continuous operation. An idealized model of a CFLi is defined that combines characteristics stated by different manufacturers. In addition, two CFLi models representing poor-quality products are analyzed. It was found that the emissions and costs per unit of time of operation of the CFLi depend linearly on the number of times per unit of time it is turned on and the time of continuous operation. The optimal conditions (lowest emissions and costs) depend on the place of manufacture, the place of operation and the quality of the components of the lamp/ballast. Finally, it was also found that for each lamp, there are intervals when it is turned off during which emissions of pollutants and costs are identical regardless of how often the lamp is turned on or the time it remains on. For CO2 emissions, the lamp must be off up to 5 minutes; for the cost, up to 7 minutes and for Hg emissions, up to 43 minutes. It is advisable not to turn on a CFLi sooner than 43 minutes from the last time it was turned off.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, to select alternatives and the development of plans for the adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future.