A new dominance intensity method to deal with ordinal information about a DM's preferences within MAVT

Dominance measuring methods are a new approach to deal with complex decision-making problems with imprecise information. These methods are based on the computation of pairwise dominance values and exploit the information in the dominance matrix in dirent ways to derive measures of dominance intensity and rank the alternatives under consideration. In this paper we propose a new dominance measuring method to deal with ordinal information about decision-maker preferences in both weights and component utilities. It takes advantage of the centroid of the polytope delimited by ordinal information and builds triangular fuzzy numbers whose distances to the crisp value 0 constitute the basis for the de?nition of a dominance intensity measure. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to compare the performance of this method with other existing approaches.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

A combined measure for quantifying and qualifying the topology preservation of growing self-organizing maps

The Self-OrganizingMap (SOM) is a neural network model that performs an ordered projection of a high dimensional input space in a low-dimensional topological structure. The process in which such mapping is formed is defined by the SOM algorithm, which is a competitive, unsupervised and nonparametric method, since it does not make any assumption about the input data distribution. The feature maps provided by this algorithm have been successfully applied for vector quantization, clustering and high dimensional data visualization processes. However, the initialization of the network topology and the selection of the SOM training parameters are two difficult tasks caused by the unknown distribution of the input signals. A misconfiguration of these parameters can generate a feature map of low-quality, so it is necessary to have some measure of the degree of adaptation of the SOM network to the input data model. The topologypreservation is the most common concept used to implement this measure. Several qualitative and quantitative methods have been proposed for measuring the degree of SOM topologypreservation, particularly using Kohonen's model. In this work, two methods for measuring the topologypreservation of the Growing Cell Structures (GCSs) model are proposed: the topographic function and the topology preserving map

Computing the Hessenberg matrix associated with a self-similar measure

We introduce in this paper a method to calculate the Hessenberg matrix of a sum of measures from the Hessenberg matrices of the component measures. Our method extends the spectral techniques used by G. Mantica to calculate the Jacobi matrix associated with a sum of measures from the Jacobi matrices of each of the measures. We apply this method to approximate the Hessenberg matrix associated with a self-similar measure and compare it with the result obtained by a former method for self-similar measures which uses a fixed point theorem for moment matrices. Results are given for a series of classical examples of self-similar measures. Finally, we also apply the method introduced in this paper to some examples of sums of (not self-similar) measures obtaining the exact value of the sections of the Hessenberg matrix.

A collaborative filtering similarity measure based on singularities.

Recommender systems play an important role in reducing the negative impact of informa- tion overload on those websites where users have the possibility of voting for their prefer- ences on items. The most normal technique for dealing with the recommendation mechanism is to use collaborative filtering, in which it is essential to discover the most similar users to whom you desire to make recommendations. The hypothesis of this paper is that the results obtained by applying traditional similarities measures can be improved by taking contextual information, drawn from the entire body of users, and using it to cal- culate the singularity which exists, for each item, in the votes cast by each pair of users that you wish to compare. As such, the greater the measure of singularity result between the votes cast by two given users, the greater the impact this will have on the similarity. The results, tested on the Movielens, Netflix and FilmAffinity databases, corroborate the excellent behaviour of the singularity measure proposed.

A Balanced Memory-Based Collaborative Filtering Similarity Measure.

Collaborative filtering recommender systems contribute to alleviating the problem of information overload that exists on the Internet as a result of the mass use of Web 2.0 applications. The use of an adequate similarity measure becomes a determining factor in the quality of the prediction and recommendation results of the recommender system, as well as in its performance. In this paper, we present a memory-based collaborative filtering similarity measure that provides extremely high-quality and balanced results; these results are complemented with a low processing time (high performance), similar to the one required to execute traditional similarity metrics. The experiments have been carried out on the MovieLens and Netflix databases, using a representative set of information retrieval quality measures.

Obtaining contradiction measure on intuitionistic fuzzy sets from fuzzy connectives

In a previous paper, we proposed an axiomatic model for measuring self-contradiction in the framework of Atanassov fuzzy sets. This way, contradiction measures that are semicontinuous and completely semicontinuous, from both below and above, were defined. Although some examples were given, the problem of finding families of functions satisfying the different axioms remained open. The purpose of this paper is to construct some families of contradiction measures firstly using continuous t-norms and t-conorms, and secondly by means of strong negations. In both cases, we study the properties that they satisfy. These families are then classified according the different kinds of measures presented in the above paper.

A methodology to measure the interface shear strength by means of the fiber push-in test

A methodology is presented to measure the fiber/matrix interface shear strength in composites. The strategy is based on performing a fiber push-in test at the central fiber of highly-packed fiber clusters with hexagonal symmetry which are often found in unidirectional composites with a high volume fraction of fibers. The mechanics of this test was analyzed in detail by means of three-dimensional finite element simulations. In particular, the influence of different parameters (interface shear strength, toughness and friction as well as fiber longitudinal elastic modulus and curing stresses) on the critical load at the onset of debonding was established. From the results of the numerical simulations, a simple relationship between the critical load and the interface shear strength is proposed. The methodology was validated in an unidirectional C/epoxy composite and the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology are indicated.

Topological measure locating the effective crossover between segregation and integration in a modular network

We introduce an easily computable topological measure which locates the effective crossover between segregation and integration in a modular network. Segregation corresponds to the degree of network modularity, while integration is expressed in terms of the algebraic connectivity of an associated hypergraph. The rigorous treatment of the simplified case of cliques of equal size that are gradually rewired until they become completely merged, allows us to show that this topological crossover can be made to coincide with a dynamical crossover from cluster to global synchronization of a system of coupled phase oscillators. The dynamical crossover is signaled by a peak in the product of the measures of intracluster and global synchronization, which we propose as a dynamical measure of complexity. This quantity is much easier to compute than the entropy (of the average frequencies of the oscillators), and displays a behavior which closely mimics that of the dynamical complexity index based on the latter. The proposed topological measure simultaneously provides information on the dynamical behavior, sheds light on the interplay between modularity and total integration, and shows how this affects the capability of the network to perform both local and distributed dynamical tasks.

Preference intensity in MCDM when an additive utility function represents DM preferences

We propose a new method for ranking alternatives in multicriteria decision-making problems when there is imprecision concerning the alternative performances, component utility functions and weights. We assume decision maker?s preferences are represented by an additive multiattribute utility function, in which weights can be modeled by independent normal variables, fuzzy numbers, value intervals or by an ordinal relation. The approaches are based on dominance measures or exploring the weight space in order to describe which ratings would make each alternative the preferred one. On the one hand, the approaches based on dominance measures compute the minimum utility difference among pairs of alternatives. Then, they compute a measure by which to rank the alternatives. On the other hand, the approaches based on exploring the weight space compute confidence factors describing the reliability of the analysis. These methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation.

Dominance intensity measure within fuzzy weight oriented MAUT: an application

We introduce a dominance intensity measuring method to derive a ranking of alternatives to deal with incomplete information in multi-criteria decision-making problems on the basis of multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) and fuzzy sets theory. We consider the situation where there is imprecision concerning decision-makers’ preferences, and imprecise weights are represented by trapezoidal fuzzy weights.The proposed method is based on the dominance values between pairs of alternatives. These values can be computed by linear programming, as an additive multi-attribute utility model is used to rate the alternatives. Dominance values are then transformed into dominance intensity measures, used to rank the alternatives under consideration. Distances between fuzzy numbers based on the generalization of the left and right fuzzy numbers are utilized to account for fuzzy weights. An example concerning the selection of intervention strategies to restore an aquatic ecosystem contaminated by radionuclides illustrates the approach. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to show that the proposed method performs well for different imprecision levels in terms of a hit ratio and a rank-order correlation measure.

Dominance intensity methods for ranking of alternatives in mcdm with imprecise information

Los decisores cada vez se enfrentan a problemas más complejos en los que tomar una decisión implica tener que considerar simultáneamente muchos criterios que normalmente son conflictivos entre sí. En la mayoría de los problemas de decisión es necesario considerar criterios económicos, sociales y medioambientales. La Teoría de la Decisión proporciona el marco adecuado para poder ayudar a los decisores a resolver estos problemas de decisión complejos, al permitir considerar conjuntamente la incertidumbre existente sobre las consecuencias de cada alternativa en los diferentes atributos y la imprecisión sobre las preferencias de los decisores. En esta tesis doctoral nos centramos en la imprecisión de las preferencias de los decisores cuando éstas pueden ser representadas mediante una función de utilidad multiatributo aditiva. Por lo tanto, consideramos imprecisión tanto en los pesos como en las funciones de utilidad componentes de cada atributo. Se ha considerado el caso en que la imprecisión puede ser representada por intervalos de valores o bien mediante información ordinal, en lugar de proporcionar valores concretos. En este sentido, hemos propuesto métodos que permiten ordenar las diferentes alternativas basados en los conceptos de intensidad de dominación o intensidad de preferencia, los cuales intentan medir la fuerza con la que cada alternativa es preferida al resto. Para todos los métodos propuestos se ha analizado su comportamiento y se ha comparado con los más relevantes existentes en la literatura científica que pueden ser aplicados para resolver este tipo de problemas. Para ello, se ha realizado un estudio de simulación en el que se han usado dos medidas de eficiencia (hit ratio y coeficiente de correlación de Kendall) para comparar los diferentes métodos. ABSTRACT Decision makers increasingly face complex decision-making problems where they have to simultaneously consider many often conflicting criteria. In most decision-making problems it is necessary to consider economic, social and environmental criteria. Decision making theory provides an adequate framework for helping decision makers to make complex decisions where they can jointly consider the uncertainty about the performance of each alternative for each attribute, and the imprecision of the decision maker's preferences. In this PhD thesis we focus on the imprecision of the decision maker's preferences represented by an additive multiattribute utility function. Therefore, we consider the imprecision of weights, as well as of component utility functions for each attribute. We consider the case in which the imprecision is represented by ranges of values or by ordinal information rather than precise values. In this respect, we propose methods for ranking alternatives based on notions of dominance intensity, also known as preference intensity, which attempt to measure how much more preferred each alternative is to the others. The performance of the propose methods has been analyzed and compared against the leading existing methods that are applicable to this type of problem. For this purpose, we conducted a simulation study using two efficiency measures (hit ratio and Kendall correlation coefficient) to compare the different methods.

Categorical Structures in Non-Commutative Measure Theory.

In this paper, we investigate effect algebras and base normed spaces from the categorical point of view. We prove that the category of effect algebras is complete and cocomplete as well as the category of base normed spaces is complete, and discuss the contravariant functor from the category of effect algebras to the category of base normed spaces.

Methodologies to measure and to manage the decarbonisation of road transport: the case of Spain

El sector del transporte por carretera es uno de los principales contribuyentes de consumo de combustible y emisiones de España. Por lo tanto, la evaluación de los impactos ambientales del tráfico rodado es esencial para los programas de mitigación del cambio climático y la eficiencia energética. Sin embargo, uno de los retos en la planificación del transporte y el diseño de políticas consiste en la aplicación de metodologías de evaluación de emisiones consistentes, el diseño de estrategias y la evaluación de su eficacia. Las metodologías existentes de evaluación de las emisiones del transporte por carretera, utilizan diferentes niveles de análisis y períodos. Sin embargo, estos análisis son puntuales y no existe una continuidad en el análisis de diferentes estrategias o políticas. Esta tesis doctoral proporciona conocimientos y herramientas para el análisis de las políticas destinadas a reducir las emisiones de tráfico, tomando España como caso de estudio. La investigación se estructura en dos partes: i) el desarrollo y aplicación de metodologías para el análisis de factores y políticas que contribuyen en la evolución de las emisiones GEI del transporte por carretera en España; desde una perspectiva nacional; y ii) el desarrollo y aplicación de un marco metodológico para estimar las emisiones del tráfico interurbano y de evaluar estrategias centradas en la operación del tráfico y en la infraestructura. En resumen, esta tesis demuestra la idoneidad de utilizar diferentes herramientas para analizar las emisiones de tráfico desde diferentes puntos de vista. Desde el diseño de políticas de mitigación y eficiencia energética a nivel nacional, a estrategias centradas en la operación del tráfico interurbano y la infraestructura. Road transport is one of the major contributors to fuel consumption and emissions in Spain. Consequently, assessing the environmental impacts of road traffic is essential for climate change mitigation and energy efficiency programs. However, one of the key challenges of policy makers and transport planners consists of implementing consistent assessment emissions methodologies, applying mitigation strategies, and knowing their effectiveness. Current state-of-the-art emissions assessment methodologies estimate emissions from different levels and periods, using different approaches. Nevertheless, these studies are timely and they usually take different methodologies for analysing different strategies or policies, regardless of the assessment as a whole. This doctoral thesis provides knowledge and methodologies for analysing policies designed to reduce road traffic emissions, using the case study of Spain. The research procedure consists of two main scopes: i) the development and application of methodologies for analysing key factors and policies driving the GHG emissions of road transport in Spain; from a national perspective; and ii) the development and application of a road traffic emissions model for assessing operational and infrastructure strategies of the interurban road network at segment level. In summary, this thesis demonstrates the appropriateness to use different tools to analyse road traffic emissions at different levels: from appropriate nationwide mitigation and energy efficiency policies, to strategies focused on the operation of interurban traffic and infrastructure.

Considering cycling for commuting : the role of mode familiarity : an exploration on the (circular) relation between cycling behaviours and attitudes toward cycling in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

¿La gente utiliza la bicicleta porque les gusta? ¿O es el propio hecho de usarla la razón por la que les gusta hacerlo? ¿O es una combinación de las dos? Este tipo de preguntas reflejan un problema que se puede llamar ‘el círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’: para poder considerar el uso de la bicicleta en el conjunto de posibles opciones a escoger, un individuo tiene que tener creencias positivas sobre ella, sobre todo en el caso de ‘contextos de bajo uso’. Pero parece poco probable que se formen creencias positivas cuando hay bajos niveles de familiaridad al modo, es decir, con un bajo conocimiento de sus características, su funcionamiento y del imaginario asociado; al mismo tiempo, la familiaridad irá alcanzando niveles más altos conforme aumente el tiempo y la intensidad con la que se utilice la bicicleta a lo largo de la vida de los individuos. El problema parece un circulo recursivo huevo-gallina, ya que es difícil que alguien considere el usar la bicicleta en lugares donde su uso es una práctica poco extendida. En estos lugares, y dentro del conglomerado actual de tecnologías, infraestructuras, reglas, prácticas de los usuarios y preferencias culturales que se han desarrollado alrededor del automóvil (el actual "sistema socio-técnico de la movilidad urbana", Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) usar la bicicleta es considerado por la mayoría como algo difícil, inseguro, y anormal. Como consecuencia, los procesos de aumento de familiaridad con la bicicleta permanecen inactivos. La tesis asume la familiaridad como una fuente de información e influencia sobre las creencias positivas sobre la bicicleta. En ‘contextos de bajo uso’, sin familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta, estas creencias sólo pueden surgir de ciertos rasgos personales (afecto, valores, identidades, voluntad, etc.). Tal como han evidenciado investigaciones recientes, en estos contextos la posibilidad de considerar el uso de la bicicleta (y su eventual adopción), se circunscribe principalmente a los ‘entusiastas’, a los que están dispuestos a “ir contra corriente” (Horton & Parkin 2012), limitando el alcance de las políticas de promoción. La investigación llevada a cabo en esta tesis ofrece un nuevo enfoque al problema del ‘círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’. Para ello, plantea un modelo en el que se introduce a la familiaridad como un constructo que media entre el comportamiento final –qué modo de transporte elige el individuo– y el conjunto de constructos psicosociales que preceden la elección modal (creencias y actitudes). La familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se concibe como una medida de la intensidad relativa del uso de una bicicleta, real y percibida (basándose en Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) que puede formarse de manera distinta según sus fines (utilitarios o no utilitarios). El constructo familiaridad con el modo bicicleta está relacionado con la cantidad de tiempo, la intensidad y la regularidad con la que un individuo ha hecho uso de la bicicleta a lo largo de su vida. La familiaridad se concibe así como una condición que permite definir adecuadamente el contexto en el que se toman las decisiones modales de los individuos, en línea con investigaciones que postulan patrones de causalidad alternativos entre los procesos cognitivos de elección y los comportamientos modales (Tardif 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). De este modo se plantea que el esquema unidireccional actitudesconductas podría no ser completamente valido en el caso de la consideración de la bicicleta, explorando la hipótesis que sean las propias conductas a influenciar la formación de las actitudes. En esta tesis, el constructo de familiaridad se articula teórica y metodológicamente, y se emplea un instrumento de diseño transversal para contrastarlo. Los resultados de una encuesta telefónica a una muestra representativa de 736 personas en la ciudad española de Vitoria-Gasteiz proveen evidencias que sugieren –aunque de forma preliminar– que la familiaridad juega un papel de mediadora en la relación entre la utilización de la bicicleta y la formación de las creencias y actitudes hacia el su uso. La tesis emplea mediciones para cada individuo con respecto tanto a su consideración como a su familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta. Éstas mediciones se definen haciendo uso del análisis factorial exploratorio (AFE). Por un lado, el AFE arroja una estructura del constructo ‘consideración’ formada por cuatro factores, tres de ellos asociados con elementos positivos y uno con elementos negativos: (1) de cómo el uso de la bicicleta se considera verde e inteligente (G&S); (2) sobre su carácter agradable y adecuado (P&S); (3) sobre su eficacia como modo de transporte para ir al trabajo (E); y (4) sobre los principales inconvenientes de su uso, es decir, las dificultades implícitas (sudoración y estar expuestos a las inclemencias del tiempo) y la sensación de inseguridad que genera (sentirse en riesgo de accidentes y estresarse por el tráfico) (D&T). Por otro lado, la familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se mide en dos distintas variables ordinales (según se base en el uso utilitario o no utilitario). Como resultado, se puede hablar de que cada individuo se encuentra en una de las siguientes cuatro etapas en orden creciente hacia una familiaridad completa al modo: no familiarizados; apenas familiarizados; moderadamente familiarizados; totalmente familiarizados. El análisis de los datos de los cuatro grupos de sujetos de la muestra, –definidos de acuerdo con cada una de las cuatro etapas de familiaridad definidas– ha evidenciado la existencia de diferencias intergrupo estadísticamente significativas, especialmente para la medida relacionada con el uso utilitario. Asimismo, las personas en los niveles inferiores de familiaridad tienen una consideración menor de los aspectos positivos de la bicicleta y por el contrario presentan preocupaciones mayores hacia las características negativas respecto a aquellas personas que están más familiarizados en el uso utilitario. El uso, aunque esporádico, de una bicicleta para fines utilitarios (ir de compras, hacer recados, etc.), a diferencia de no usarla en absoluto, aparece asociado a unas puntuaciones significativamente más altas en los tres factores positivos (G&S, E, P&S), mientras que parece estar asociado a puntuaciones significativamente más bajas en el factor relacionado con las características negativas (D&U). Aparecen resultados similares cuando se compara un uso moderado, con uno esporádico, sobre todo con respecto a la consideración de las características negativas. Los resultados de esta tesis están en línea con la literatura anterior que se ha basado en variables similares (por ejemplo, de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; y van Bekkum et al. 2011a, entre otros), pero en este estudio las diferencias se observan en un contexto de bajo uso y se derivan de un análisis de toda la población de personas que se desplazan a su lugar de trabajo o estudio, lo cual eleva la fiabilidad de los resultados. La posibilidad de que unos niveles más altos de uso de la bicicleta para fines utilitarios puedan llevar a niveles más positivos de su consideración abre el camino a implicaciones teóricas y de políticas que se discuten en la tesis. Con estos resultados se argumenta que el enfoque convencional basado en el cambio de actitudes puede no ser el único y prioritario para lograr cambios a la hora de fomentar el uso de la bicicleta. Los resultados apuntan al potencial de otros esquemas de causalidad, basados en patrones de influencia más descentrados y distribuidos, y que adopten una mirada más positiva hacia los hábitos de transporte, conceptualizándolos como “inteligencia encarnada y pre-reflexiva” (Schwanen et al. 2012). Tales esquemas conducen a un enfoque más práctico para la promoción del uso de la bicicleta, con estrategias que podrían basarse en acciones de ‘degustación’ de su uso o de mayor ‘exposición’ a su uso. Is the fact that people like cycling the reason for them to cycle? Or is the fact that they do cycle the reason for them to like cycling? Or is a combination of the two? This kind of questions reflect a problem that can be called ‘the cycle of cycling consideration’: in order to consider cycling in the set of possible options to be chosen, an individual needs to have positive beliefs about it, especially in the case of ‘low-cycling contexts’. However, positive beliefs seem unlikely to be formed with low levels of mode familiarity, say, with a low acquaintance with mode features, functioning and images; at the same time, higher levels of familiarity are likely to be reached if cycling is practised over relative threshold levels of intensities and extensively across individual life courses. The problem looks like a chicken-egg recursive cycle, since the latter condition is hardly met in places where cycling is little practised. In fact, inside the current conglomerate of technologies, infrastructures, regulations, user practices, cultural preferences that have grown around the automobile (the current “socio-technical system of urban mobility”, Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) cycling is commonly considered as difficult, unsafe, and abnormal. Consequently, the processes of familiarity forming remain disabled, and, as a result, beliefs cannot rely on mode familiarity as a source of information and influence. Without cycling familiarity, origins of positive beliefs are supposed to rely only on personal traits (affect, values, identities, willingness, etc.), which, in low-cycling contexts, confine the possibility of cycling consideration (and eventual adoption) mainly to ‘cycling enthusiasts’ who are willing to “go against the grain” (Horton & Parkin 2012), as it results from previous research. New research conducted by author provides theoretical insights for a different approach of the cycling consideration problem in which the presence of the new construct of cycling familiarity is hypothesised in the relationship between mode choice behaviour and the set of psychosocial constructs that are supposed to precede it (beliefs and attitudes). Cycling familiarity is conceived as a measure of the real and the perceived relative intensity of use of a bicycle (building upon Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) which may be differently formed for utilitarian or non-utilitarian purposes. The construct is assumed to be related to the amount of time, the intensity and the regularity an individual spends in using a bicycle for the two distinct categories of purposes, gaining in this way a certain level of acquaintance with the mode. Familiarity with a mode of transport is conceived as an enabling condition to properly define the decision-making context in which individual travel mode choices are taken, in line with rather disperse research efforts postulating inverse relationships between mode behaviours and mode choices (Tardiff 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). The new construct is built theoretically and methodologically, and a cross-sectional design instrument is employed. Results from a telephone survey in a representative sample of 736 commuters in the Spanish city of Vitoria-Gasteiz, provide suggestive –although preliminary– evidence on the role of mode familiarity as a mediator in the relationship between cycling use and the formation of beliefs and attitudes toward cycling. Measures of both cycling consideration and cycling familiarity are defined making use of exploratory factor analysis. On the one hand, four distinct cycling consideration measures are created, based on attitude expressions on four underlying factors relating to the cycling commuting behaviour: on how cycling commuting is considered green and smart (G&S); on its pleasant and suited character (P&S); on its efficiency as a mode of transport for commuting (E); and on the main drawbacks of its use, namely the difficulties implied (sweating and being exposed to adverse weather conditions) and the sense of unsafety it generates (feeling at risk of accidents and getting stressed by traffic) (D&U). On the other hand, dimensions of cycling familiarity are measured on two distinct ordinal variables (whether based on the utilitarian or non-utilitarian use) comprising four stages to a complete mode familiarity: not familiar; barely familiar; moderately familiar; fully familiar. For each of the four stages of cycling familiarity defined, statistical significant differences are found, especially for the measure related to the utilitarian use. Consistently, people at the lower levels of cycling familiarity have a lower consideration of the positive aspects of cycling and conversely they exhibit higher concerns towards the negative characteristics than those individuals that are more familiar in utilitarian cycling. Using a bicycle occasionally for practical purposes, as opposed to not using it at all, seems associated to significant higher scores in the three positive factors (G&S, E, P&S) while it appears to be associated to significant lower scores in the factor relating with the negative characteristics of cycling commuting (D&U). A same pattern also occurs with a moderate use, as opposed to an occasional one, especially for the consideration of the negative characteristics. The results are in line with previous literature based on similar variables (e.g. de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; and van Bekkum et al. 2011a, among others), but in this study the differences are observed in a low-cycling context and derive from an analysis of the entire population of commuters, which rises the reliability of results.