Perceived Video Quality Estimation from Spatial and Temporal Information Contents and Network Performance Parameters in IPTV

The paper proposes a model for estimation of perceived video quality in IPTV, taking as input both video coding and network Quality of Service parameters. It includes some fitting parameters that depend mainly on the information contents of the video sequences. A method to derive them from the Spatial and Temporal Information contents of the sequences is proposed. The model may be used for near real-time monitoring of IPTV video quality.

Modelos Estadísticos Dinámicos para Análisis de Evolución de Tasas de Accidentes: Metodología y Herramientas Computacionales

Los accidentes del tráfico son un fenómeno social muy relevantes y una de las principales causas de mortalidad en los países desarrollados. Para entender este fenómeno complejo se aplican modelos econométricos sofisticados tanto en la literatura académica como por las administraciones públicas. Esta tesis está dedicada al análisis de modelos macroscópicos para los accidentes del tráfico en España. El objetivo de esta tesis se puede dividir en dos bloques: a. Obtener una mejor comprensión del fenómeno de accidentes de trafico mediante la aplicación y comparación de dos modelos macroscópicos utilizados frecuentemente en este área: DRAG y UCM, con la aplicación a los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en España durante el período 2000-2009. Los análisis se llevaron a cabo con enfoque frecuencista y mediante los programas TRIO, SAS y TRAMO/SEATS. b. La aplicación de modelos y la selección de las variables más relevantes, son temas actuales de investigación y en esta tesis se ha desarrollado y aplicado una metodología que pretende mejorar, mediante herramientas teóricas y prácticas, el entendimiento de selección y comparación de los modelos macroscópicos. Se han desarrollado metodologías tanto para selección como para comparación de modelos. La metodología de selección de modelos se ha aplicado a los accidentes mortales ocurridos en la red viaria en el período 2000-2011, y la propuesta metodológica de comparación de modelos macroscópicos se ha aplicado a la frecuencia y la severidad de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en el período 2000-2009. Como resultado de los desarrollos anteriores se resaltan las siguientes contribuciones: a. Profundización de los modelos a través de interpretación de las variables respuesta y poder de predicción de los modelos. El conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas se ha ampliado en este proceso. bl. Desarrollo de una metodología para selección de variables relevantes para la explicación de la ocurrencia de accidentes de tráfico. Teniendo en cuenta los resultados de a) la propuesta metodológica se basa en los modelos DRAG, cuyos parámetros se han estimado con enfoque bayesiano y se han aplicado a los datos de accidentes mortales entre los años 2000-2011 en España. Esta metodología novedosa y original se ha comparado con modelos de regresión dinámica (DR), que son los modelos más comunes para el trabajo con procesos estocásticos. Los resultados son comparables, y con la nueva propuesta se realiza una aportación metodológica que optimiza el proceso de selección de modelos, con escaso coste computacional. b2. En la tesis se ha diseñado una metodología de comparación teórica entre los modelos competidores mediante la aplicación conjunta de simulación Monte Cario, diseño de experimentos y análisis de la varianza ANOVA. Los modelos competidores tienen diferentes estructuras, que afectan a la estimación de efectos de las variables explicativas. Teniendo en cuenta el estudio desarrollado en bl) este desarrollo tiene el propósito de determinar como interpretar la componente de tendencia estocástica que un modelo UCM modela explícitamente, a través de un modelo DRAG, que no tiene un método específico para modelar este elemento. Los resultados de este estudio son importantes para ver si la serie necesita ser diferenciada antes de modelar. b3. Se han desarrollado nuevos algoritmos para realizar los ejercicios metodológicos, implementados en diferentes programas como R, WinBUGS, y MATLAB. El cumplimiento de los objetivos de la tesis a través de los desarrollos antes enunciados se remarcan en las siguientes conclusiones: 1. El fenómeno de accidentes del tráfico se ha analizado mediante dos modelos macroscópicos. Los efectos de los factores de influencia son diferentes dependiendo de la metodología aplicada. Los resultados de predicción son similares aunque con ligera superioridad de la metodología DRAG. 2. La metodología para selección de variables y modelos proporciona resultados prácticos en cuanto a la explicación de los accidentes de tráfico. La predicción y la interpretación también se han mejorado mediante esta nueva metodología. 3. Se ha implementado una metodología para profundizar en el conocimiento de la relación entre las estimaciones de los efectos de dos modelos competidores como DRAG y UCM. Un aspecto muy importante en este tema es la interpretación de la tendencia mediante dos modelos diferentes de la que se ha obtenido información muy útil para los investigadores en el campo del modelado. Los resultados han proporcionado una ampliación satisfactoria del conocimiento en torno al proceso de modelado y comprensión de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas y accidentes mortales totales en España. ABSTRACT Road accidents are a very relevant social phenomenon and one of the main causes of death in industrialized countries. Sophisticated econometric models are applied in academic work and by the administrations for a better understanding of this very complex phenomenon. This thesis is thus devoted to the analysis of macro models for road accidents with application to the Spanish case. The objectives of the thesis may be divided in two blocks: a. To achieve a better understanding of the road accident phenomenon by means of the application and comparison of two of the most frequently used macro modelings: DRAG (demand for road use, accidents and their gravity) and UCM (unobserved components model); the application was made to van involved accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2009. The analysis has been carried out within the frequentist framework and using available state of the art software, TRIO, SAS and TRAMO/SEATS. b. Concern on the application of the models and on the relevant input variables to be included in the model has driven the research to try to improve, by theoretical and practical means, the understanding on methodological choice and model selection procedures. The theoretical developments have been applied to fatal accidents during the period 2000-2011 and van-involved road accidents in 2000-2009. This has resulted in the following contributions: a. Insight on the models has been gained through interpretation of the effect of the input variables on the response and prediction accuracy of both models. The behavior of van-involved road accidents has been explained during this process. b1. Development of an input variable selection procedure, which is crucial for an efficient choice of the inputs. Following the results of a) the procedure uses the DRAG-like model. The estimation is carried out within the Bayesian framework. The procedure has been applied for the total road accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2011. The results of the model selection procedure are compared and validated through a dynamic regression model given that the original data has a stochastic trend. b2. A methodology for theoretical comparison between the two models through Monte Carlo simulation, computer experiment design and ANOVA. The models have a different structure and this affects the estimation of the effects of the input variables. The comparison is thus carried out in terms of the effect of the input variables on the response, which is in general different, and should be related. Considering the results of the study carried out in b1) this study tries to find out how a stochastic time trend will be captured in DRAG model, since there is no specific trend component in DRAG. Given the results of b1) the findings of this study are crucial in order to see if the estimation of data with stochastic component through DRAG will be valid or whether the data need a certain adjustment (typically differencing) prior to the estimation. The model comparison methodology was applied to the UCM and DRAG models, considering that, as mentioned above, the UCM has a specific trend term while DRAG does not. b3. New algorithms were developed for carrying out the methodological exercises. For this purpose different softwares, R, WinBUGs and MATLAB were used. These objectives and contributions have been resulted in the following findings: 1. The road accident phenomenon has been analyzed by means of two macro models: The effects of the influential input variables may be estimated through the models, but it has been observed that the estimates vary from one model to the other, although prediction accuracy is similar, with a slight superiority of the DRAG methodology. 2. The variable selection methodology provides very practical results, as far as the explanation of road accidents is concerned. Prediction accuracy and interpretability have been improved by means of a more efficient input variable and model selection procedure. 3. Insight has been gained on the relationship between the estimates of the effects using the two models. A very relevant issue here is the role of trend in both models, relevant recommendations for the analyst have resulted from here. The results have provided a very satisfactory insight into both modeling aspects and the understanding of both van-involved and total fatal accidents behavior in Spain.

Comparación de un nuevo método de aceleración de análisis dinámicos con métodos de reducción de modelos

La dinámica estructural estudia la respuesta de una estructura ante cargas o fenómenos variables en el tiempo. En muchos casos, estos fenómenos requieren realizar análisis paramétricos de la estructura considerando una gran cantidad de configuraciones de diseño o modificaciones de la estructura. Estos cambios, ya sean en fases iniciales de diseño o en fases posteriores de rediseño, alteran las propiedades físicas de la estructura y por tanto del modelo empleado para su análisis, cuyo comportamiento dinámico se modifica en consecuencia. Un caso de estudio de este tipo de modificaciones es la supervisión de la integridad estructural, que trata de identificar la presencia de daño estructural y prever el comportamiento de la estructura tras ese daño, como puede ser la variación del comportamiento dinámico de la estructura debida a una delaminación, la aparición o crecimiento de grieta, la debida a la pérdida de pala sufrida por el motor de un avión en vuelo, o la respuesta dinámica de construcciones civiles como puentes o edificios frente a cargas sísmicas. Si a la complejidad de los análisis dinámicos requeridos en el caso de grandes estructuras se añade la variación de determinados parámetros en busca de una respuesta dinámica determinada o para simular la presencia de daños, resulta necesario la búsqueda de medios de simplificación o aceleración del conjunto de análisis que de otra forma parecen inabordables tanto desde el punto de vista del tiempo de computación, como de la capacidad requerida de almacenamiento y manejo de grandes volúmenes de archivos de datos. En la presente tesis doctoral se han revisado los métodos de reducción de elementos .nitos más habituales para análisis dinámicos de grandes estructuras. Se han comparado los resultados de casos de estudio de los métodos más aptos, para el tipo de estructuras y modificaciones descritas, con los resultados de aplicación de un método de reducción reciente. Entre los primeros están el método de condensación estática de Guyan extendido al caso con amortiguamiento no proporcional y posteriores implementaciones de condensaciones dinámicas en diferentes espacios vectoriales. El método de reducción recientemente presentado se denomina en esta tesis DACMAM (Dynamic Analysis in Complex Modal space Acceleration Method), y consiste en el análisis simplificado que proporciona una solución para la respuesta dinámica de una estructura, calculada en el espacio modal complejo y que admite modificaciones estructurales. El método DACMAM permite seleccionar un número reducido de grados de libertad significativos para la dinámica del fenómeno que se quiere estudiar como son los puntos de aplicación de la carga, localizaciones de los cambios estructurales o puntos donde se quiera conocer la respuesta, de forma que al implementar las modificaciones estructurales, se ejecutan los análisis necesarios sólo de dichos grados de libertad sin pérdida de precisión. El método permite considerar alteraciones de masa, rigidez, amortiguamiento y la adición de nuevos grados de libertad. Teniendo en cuenta la dimensión del conjunto de ecuaciones a resolver, la parametrización de los análisis no sólo resulta posible, sino que es también manejable y controlable gracias a la sencilla implementación del procedimiento para los códigos habituales de cálculo mediante elementos .nitos. En el presente trabajo se muestra la bondad y eficiencia del método en comparación con algunos de los métodos de reducción de grandes modelos estructurales, verificando las diferencias entre sí de los resultados obtenidos y respecto a la respuesta real de la estructura, y comprobando los medios empleados en ellos tanto en tiempo de ejecución como en tamaño de ficheros electrónicos. La influencia de los diversos factores que se tienen en cuenta permite identificar los límites y capacidades de aplicación del método y su exhaustiva comparación con los otros procedimientos. ABSTRACT Structural dynamics studies the response of a structure under loads or phenomena which vary over time. In many cases, these phenomena require the use of parametric analyses taking into consideration several design configurations or modifications of the structure. This is a typical need in an engineering o¢ ce, no matter the structural design is in early or final stages. These changes modify the physical properties of the structure, and therefore, the finite element model to analyse it. A case study, that exempli.es this circumstance, is the structural health monitoring to predict the variation of the dynamical behaviour after damage, such as a delaminated structure, a crack onset or growth, an aircraft that suffers a blade loss event or civil structures (buildings or bridges) under seismic loads. Not only large structures require complex analyses to appropriately acquire an accurate solution, but also the variation of certain parameters. There is a need to simplify the analytical process, in order to bring CPU time, data .les, management of solutions to a reasonable size. In the current doctoral thesis, the most common finite element reduction methods for large structures are reviewed. Results of case studies are compared between a recently proposed method, herein named DACMAM (Dynamic Analysis in Complex Modal space Acceleration Method), and different condensation methods, namely static or Guyan condensation and dynamic condensation in different vectorial spaces. All these methods are suitable for considering non-classical damping. The reduction method DACMAM consist of a structural modification in the complex modal domain which provides a dynamic response solution for the reduced models. This process allows the selection of a few degrees of freedom that are relevant for the dynamic response of the system. These d.o.f. are the load application points, relevant structural points or points in which it is important to know the response. Consequently, an analysis with structural modifications implies only the calculation of the dynamic response of the selected degrees of freedom added, but with no loss of information. Therefore, mass, stiffness or damping modifications are easily considered as well as new degrees of freedom. Taking into account the size of the equations to be solved, the parameterization of the dynamic solutions is not only possible, but also manageable and controllable due to the easy implementation of the procedure in the standard finite element solvers. In this thesis, the proposed reduction method for large structural models is compared with other published model order reduction methods. The comparison shows and underlines the efficiency of the new method, and veri.es the differences in the response when compared with the response of the full model. The CPU time, the data files and the scope of the parameterization are also addressed.

Método computacional para la aceleración de análisis paramétricos de modificaciones locales en estructuras complejas sometidas a cargas dinámicas

Dentro del análisis y diseño estructural surgen frecuentemente problemas de ingeniería donde se requiere el análisis dinámico de grandes modelos de elementos finitos que llegan a millones de grados de libertad y emplean volúmenes de datos de gran tamaño. La complejidad y dimensión de los análisis se dispara cuando se requiere realizar análisis paramétricos. Este problema se ha abordado tradicionalmente desde diversas perspectivas: en primer lugar, aumentando la capacidad tanto de cálculo como de memoria de los sistemas informáticos empleados en los análisis. En segundo lugar, se pueden simplificar los análisis paramétricos reduciendo su número o detalle y por último se puede recurrir a métodos complementarios a los elementos .nitos para la reducción de sus variables y la simplificación de su ejecución manteniendo los resultados obtenidos próximos al comportamiento real de la estructura. Se propone el empleo de un método de reducción que encaja en la tercera de las opciones y consiste en un análisis simplificado que proporciona una solución para la respuesta dinámica de una estructura en el subespacio modal complejo empleando un volumen de datos muy reducido. De este modo se pueden realizar análisis paramétricos variando múltiples parámetros, para obtener una solución muy aproximada al objetivo buscado. Se propone no solo la variación de propiedades locales de masa, rigidez y amortiguamiento sino la adición de grados de libertad a la estructura original para el cálculo de la respuesta tanto permanente como transitoria. Adicionalmente, su facilidad de implementación permite un control exhaustivo sobre las variables del problema y la implementación de mejoras como diferentes formas de obtención de los autovalores o la eliminación de las limitaciones de amortiguamiento en la estructura original. El objetivo del método se puede considerar similar a los que se obtienen al aplicar el método de Guyan u otras técnicas de reducción de modelos empleados en dinámica estructural. Sin embargo, aunque el método permite ser empleado en conjunción con otros para obtener las ventajas de ambos, el presente procedimiento no realiza la condensación del sistema de ecuaciones, sino que emplea la información del sistema de ecuaciones completa estudiando tan solo la respuesta en las variables apropiadas de los puntos de interés para el analista. Dicho interés puede surgir de la necesidad de obtener la respuesta de las grandes estructuras en unos puntos determinados o de la necesidad de modificar la estructura en zonas determinadas para cambiar su comportamiento (respuesta en aceleraciones, velocidades o desplazamientos) ante cargas dinámicas. Por lo tanto, el procedimiento está particularmente indicado para la selección del valor óptimo de varios parámetros en grandes estructuras (del orden de cientos de miles de modos) como pueden ser la localización de elementos introducidos, rigideces, masas o valores de amortiguamientos viscosos en estudios previos en los que diversas soluciones son planteadas y optimizadas, y que en el caso de grandes estructuras, pueden conllevar un número de simulaciones extremadamente elevado para alcanzar la solución óptima. Tras plantear las herramientas necesarias y desarrollar el procedimiento, se propone un caso de estudio para su aplicación al modelo de elementos .nitos del UAV MILANO desarrollado por el Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial. A dicha estructura se le imponen ciertos requisitos al incorporar un equipo en aceleraciones en punta de ala izquierda y desplazamientos en punta de ala derecha en presencia de la sustentación producida por una ráfaga continua de viento de forma sinusoidal. La modificación propuesta consiste en la adición de un equipo en la punta de ala izquierda, bien mediante un anclaje rígido, bien unido mediante un sistema de reducción de la respuesta dinámica con propiedades de masa, rigidez y amortiguamiento variables. El estudio de los resultados obtenidos permite determinar la optimización de los parámetros del sistema de atenuación por medio de múltiples análisis dinámicos de forma que se cumplan de la mejor forma posible los requisitos impuestos con la modificación. Se comparan los resultados con los obtenidos mediante el uso de un programa comercial de análisis por el método de los elementos .nitos lográndose soluciones muy aproximadas entre el modelo completo y el reducido. La influencia de diversos factores como son el amortiguamiento modal de la estructura original, el número de modos retenidos en la truncatura o la precisión proporcionada por el barrido en frecuencia se analiza en detalle para, por último, señalar la eficiencia en términos de tiempo y volumen de datos de computación que ofrece el método propuesto en comparación con otras aproximaciones. Por lo tanto, puede concluirse que el método propuesto se considera una opción útil y eficiente para el análisis paramétrico de modificaciones locales en grandes estructuras. ABSTRACT When developing structural design and analysis some projects require dynamic analysis of large finite element models with millions of degrees of freedom which use large size data .les. The analysis complexity and size grow if a parametric analysis is required. This problem has been approached traditionally in several ways: one way is increasing the power and the storage capacity of computer systems involved in the analysis. Other obvious way is reducing the total amount of analyses and their details. Finally, complementary methods to finite element analysis can also be employed in order to limit the number of variables and to reduce the execution time keeping the results as close as possible to the actual behaviour of the structure. Following this third option, we propose a model reduction method that is based in a simplified analysis that supplies a solution for the dynamic response of the structure in the complex modal space using few data. Thereby, parametric analysis can be done varying multiple parameters so as to obtain a solution which complies with the desired objetive. We propose not only mass, stiffness and damping variations, but also addition of degrees of freedom to the original structure in order to calculate the transient and steady-state response. Additionally, the simple implementation of the procedure allows an in-depth control of the problem variables. Furthermore, improvements such as different ways to obtain eigenvectors or to remove damping limitations of the original structure are also possible. The purpose of the procedure is similar to that of using the Guyan or similar model order reduction techniques. However, in our method we do not perform a true model order reduction in the traditional sense. Furthermore, additional gains, which we do not explore herein, can be obtained through the combination of this method with traditional model-order reduction procedures. In our procedure we use the information of the whole system of equations is used but only those nodes of interest to the analyst are processed. That interest comes from the need to obtain the response of the structure at specific locations or from the need to modify the structure at some suitable positions in order to change its behaviour (acceleration, velocity or displacement response) under dynamic loads. Therefore, the procedure is particularly suitable for parametric optimization in large structures with >100000 normal modes such as position of new elements, stiffness, mass and viscous dampings in previous studies where different solutions are devised and optimized, and in the case of large structures, can carry an extremely high number of simulations to get the optimum solution. After the introduction of the required tools and the development of the procedure, a study case is proposed with use the finite element model (FEM) of the MILANO UAV developed by Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial. Due to an equipment addition, certain acceleration and displacement requirements on left wing tip and right wing tip, respectively, are imposed. The structure is under a continuous sinusoidal wind gust which produces lift. The proposed modification consists of the addition of an equipment in left wing tip clamped through a rigid attachment or through a dynamic response reduction system with variable properties of mass, stiffness and damping. The analysis of the obtained results allows us to determine the optimized parametric by means of multiple dynamic analyses in a way such that the imposed requirements have been accomplished in the best possible way. The results achieved are compared with results from a commercial finite element analysis software, showing a good correlation. Influence of several factors such as the modal damping of the original structure, the number of modes kept in the modal truncation or the precission given by the frequency sweep is analyzed. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed method is addressed in tems of computational time and data size compared with other approaches. From the analyses performed, we can conclude that the proposed method is a useful and efficient option to perform parametric analysis of possible local modifications in large structures.

New methods for the estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model based extended Kalman filter and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use.

A new approach to fuzzy estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

An efficient approach is presented to improve the local and global approximation and modelling capability of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy. The main problem is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the use of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last two decades in the stability, controller design and are popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. A simple approach with few computational effort, based on the well known parameters' weighting method is suggested for tuning T-S parameters to improve the choice of the performance index and minimize it. A global fuzzy controller (FC) based Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. Illustrative examples of an inverted pendulum and Van der Pol system are chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method and the high accuracy obtained in approximating nonlinear and unstable systems locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity and generality of the algorithm.

Spatially-Explicit Testing of a General Aboveground Carbon Density Estimation Model in aWestern Amazonian Forest Using Airborne LiDAR

Mapping aboveground carbon density in tropical forests can support CO2 emissionmonitoring and provide benefits for national resource management. Although LiDAR technology has been shown to be useful for assessing carbon density patterns, the accuracy and generality of calibrations of LiDAR-based aboveground carbon density (ACD) predictions with those obtained from field inventory techniques should be intensified in order to advance tropical forest carbon mapping. Here we present results from the application of a general ACD estimation model applied with small-footprint LiDAR data and field-based estimates of a 50-ha forest plot in Ecuador?s Yasuní National Park. Subplots used for calibration and validation of the general LiDAR equation were selected based on analysis of topographic position and spatial distribution of aboveground carbon stocks. The results showed that stratification of plot locations based on topography can improve the calibration and application of ACD estimation using airborne LiDAR (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 5.81 Mg?C? ha?1, BIAS = 0.59). These results strongly suggest that a general LiDAR-based approach can be used for mapping aboveground carbon stocks in western lowland Amazonian forests.

Estimation of the solubility parameters of model plant surfaces and agrochemicals: a valuable tool for understanding plant surface interactions

Background Most aerial plant parts are covered with a hydrophobic lipid-rich cuticle, which is the interface between the plant organs and the surrounding environment. Plant surfaces may have a high degree of hydrophobicity because of the combined effects of surface chemistry and roughness. The physical and chemical complexity of the plant cuticle limits the development of models that explain its internal structure and interactions with surface-applied agrochemicals. In this article we introduce a thermodynamic method for estimating the solubilities of model plant surface constituents and relating them to the effects of agrochemicals. Results Following the van Krevelen and Hoftyzer method, we calculated the solubility parameters of three model plant species and eight compounds that differ in hydrophobicity and polarity. In addition, intact tissues were examined by scanning electron microscopy and the surface free energy, polarity, solubility parameter and work of adhesion of each were calculated from contact angle measurements of three liquids with different polarities. By comparing the affinities between plant surface constituents and agrochemicals derived from (a) theoretical calculations and (b) contact angle measurements we were able to distinguish the physical effect of surface roughness from the effect of the chemical nature of the epicuticular waxes. A solubility parameter model for plant surfaces is proposed on the basis of an increasing gradient from the cuticular surface towards the underlying cell wall. Conclusions The procedure enabled us to predict the interactions among agrochemicals, plant surfaces, and cuticular and cell wall components, and promises to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of biological surface interactions.

Towards execution time estimation for logic programs via static analysis and profiling

Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions or reductions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of the platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for a given platform. These parameters calíbrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in the given platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

Estimation of the solubility parameters of model plant surfaces and agrochemicals: a valuable tool for understanding plant surface interactions

Background Most aerial plant parts are covered with a hydrophobic lipid-rich cuticle, which is the interface between the plant organs and the surrounding environment. Plant surfaces may have a high degree of hydrophobicity because of the combined effects of surface chemistry and roughness. The physical and chemical complexity of the plant cuticle limits the development of models that explain its internal structure and interactions with surface-applied agrochemicals. In this article we introduce a thermodynamic method for estimating the solubilities of model plant surface constituents and relating them to the effects of agrochemicals. Results Following the van Krevelen and Hoftyzer method, we calculated the solubility parameters of three model plant species and eight compounds that differ in hydrophobicity and polarity. In addition, intact tissues were examined by scanning electron microscopy and the surface free energy, polarity, solubility parameter and work of adhesion of each were calculated from contact angle measurements of three liquids with different polarities. By comparing the affinities between plant surface constituents and agrochemicals derived from (a) theoretical calculations and (b) contact angle measurements we were able to distinguish the physical effect of surface roughness from the effect of the chemical nature of the epicuticular waxes. A solubility parameter model for plant surfaces is proposed on the basis of an increasing gradient from the cuticular surface towards the underlying cell wall. Conclusions The procedure enabled us to predict the interactions among agrochemicals, plant surfaces, and cuticular and cell wall components, and promises to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of biological surface interactions.

Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation

Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or potential flow models can be very fast to solve, they usually suffer from a poor accuracy in order to simulate real flows (transonic, viscous). On the other hand, more complex models such as the full Navier- Stokes equations provide high fidelity predictions but at a much higher computational cost. Thus, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time has to be fixed for engineering applications. A discretisation technique widely used within the industry is the so-called Finite Volume approach on unstructured meshes. This technique spatially discretises the flow motion equations onto a set of elements which form a mesh, a discrete representation of the continuous domain. Using this approach, for a given flow model equation, the accuracy and computational time mainly depend on the distribution of nodes forming the mesh. Therefore, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time might be obtained by carefully defining the mesh. However, defining an optimal mesh for complex flows and geometries requires a very high level expertize in fluid mechanics and numerical analysis, and in most cases a simple guess of regions of the computational domain which might affect the most the accuracy is impossible. Thus, it is desirable to have an automatized remeshing tool, which is more flexible with unstructured meshes than its structured counterpart. However, adaptive methods currently in use still have an opened question: how to efficiently drive the adaptation ? Pioneering sensors based on flow features generally suffer from a lack of reliability, so in the last decade more effort has been made in developing numerical error-based sensors, like for instance the adjoint-based adaptation sensors. While very efficient at adapting meshes for a given functional output, the latter method is very expensive as it requires to solve a dual set of equations and computes the sensor on an embedded mesh. Therefore, it would be desirable to develop a more affordable numerical error estimation method. The current work aims at estimating the truncation error, which arises when discretising a partial differential equation. These are the higher order terms neglected in the construction of the numerical scheme. The truncation error provides very useful information as it is strongly related to the flow model equation and its discretisation. On one hand, it is a very reliable measure of the quality of the mesh, therefore very useful in order to drive a mesh adaptation procedure. On the other hand, it is strongly linked to the flow model equation, so that a careful estimation actually gives information on how well a given equation is solved, which may be useful in the context of _ -extrapolation or zonal modelling. The following work is organized as follows: Chap. 1 contains a short review of mesh adaptation techniques as well as numerical error prediction. In the first section, Sec. 1.1, the basic refinement strategies are reviewed and the main contribution to structured and unstructured mesh adaptation are presented. Sec. 1.2 introduces the definitions of errors encountered when solving Computational Fluid Dynamics problems and reviews the most common approaches to predict them. Chap. 2 is devoted to the mathematical formulation of truncation error estimation in the context of finite volume methodology, as well as a complete verification procedure. Several features are studied, such as the influence of grid non-uniformities, non-linearity, boundary conditions and non-converged numerical solutions. This verification part has been submitted and accepted for publication in the Journal of Computational Physics. Chap. 3 presents a mesh adaptation algorithm based on truncation error estimates and compares the results to a feature-based and an adjoint-based sensor (in collaboration with Jorge Ponsín, INTA). Two- and three-dimensional cases relevant for validation in the aeronautical industry are considered. This part has been submitted and accepted in the AIAA Journal. An extension to Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes equations is also included, where _ -estimation-based mesh adaptation and _ -extrapolation are applied to viscous wing profiles. The latter has been submitted in the Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Keywords: mesh adaptation, numerical error prediction, finite volume Hoy en día, la Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional (CFD) es ampliamente utilizada dentro de la industria para obtener información sobre fenómenos fluidos. La Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional considera distintas modelizaciones de las ecuaciones fluidas (Potencial, Euler, Navier-Stokes, etc) para simular y predecir las fuerzas que actúan, por ejemplo, sobre una configuración de aeronave. El tiempo de cálculo y la precisión en la solución depende en gran medida de los modelos utilizados, así como de la dimensión espacial del problema considerado. Mientras que modelos simples basados en flujos perfectos, como modelos de flujos potenciales, se pueden resolver rápidamente, por lo general aducen de una baja precisión a la hora de simular flujos reales (viscosos, transónicos, etc). Por otro lado, modelos más complejos tales como el conjunto de ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes proporcionan predicciones de alta fidelidad, a expensas de un coste computacional mucho más elevado. Por lo tanto, en términos de aplicaciones de ingeniería se debe fijar un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo. Una técnica de discretización ampliamente utilizada en la industria es el método de los Volúmenes Finitos en mallas no estructuradas. Esta técnica discretiza espacialmente las ecuaciones del movimiento del flujo sobre un conjunto de elementos que forman una malla, una representación discreta del dominio continuo. Utilizando este enfoque, para una ecuación de flujo dado, la precisión y el tiempo computacional dependen principalmente de la distribución de los nodos que forman la malla. Por consiguiente, un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo se podría obtener definiendo cuidadosamente la malla, concentrando sus elementos en aquellas zonas donde sea estrictamente necesario. Sin embargo, la definición de una malla óptima para corrientes y geometrías complejas requiere un nivel muy alto de experiencia en la mecánica de fluidos y el análisis numérico, así como un conocimiento previo de la solución. Aspecto que en la mayoría de los casos no está disponible. Por tanto, es deseable tener una herramienta que permita adaptar los elementos de malla de forma automática, acorde a la solución fluida (remallado). Esta herramienta es generalmente más flexible en mallas no estructuradas que con su homóloga estructurada. No obstante, los métodos de adaptación actualmente en uso todavía dejan una pregunta abierta: cómo conducir de manera eficiente la adaptación. Sensores pioneros basados en las características del flujo en general, adolecen de una falta de fiabilidad, por lo que en la última década se han realizado grandes esfuerzos en el desarrollo numérico de sensores basados en el error, como por ejemplo los sensores basados en el adjunto. A pesar de ser muy eficientes en la adaptación de mallas para un determinado funcional, este último método resulta muy costoso, pues requiere resolver un doble conjunto de ecuaciones: la solución y su adjunta. Por tanto, es deseable desarrollar un método numérico de estimación de error más asequible. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar el error local de truncación, que aparece cuando se discretiza una ecuación en derivadas parciales. Estos son los términos de orden superior olvidados en la construcción del esquema numérico. El error de truncación proporciona una información muy útil sobre la solución: es una medida muy fiable de la calidad de la malla, obteniendo información que permite llevar a cabo un procedimiento de adaptación de malla. Está fuertemente relacionado al modelo matemático fluido, de modo que una estimación precisa garantiza la idoneidad de dicho modelo en un campo fluido, lo que puede ser útil en el contexto de modelado zonal. Por último, permite mejorar la precisión de la solución resolviendo un nuevo sistema donde el error local actúa como término fuente (_ -extrapolación). El presenta trabajo se organiza de la siguiente manera: Cap. 1 contiene una breve reseña de las técnicas de adaptación de malla, así como de los métodos de predicción de los errores numéricos. En la primera sección, Sec. 1.1, se examinan las estrategias básicas de refinamiento y se presenta la principal contribución a la adaptación de malla estructurada y no estructurada. Sec 1.2 introduce las definiciones de los errores encontrados en la resolución de problemas de Dinámica Computacional de Fluidos y se examinan los enfoques más comunes para predecirlos. Cap. 2 está dedicado a la formulación matemática de la estimación del error de truncación en el contexto de la metodología de Volúmenes Finitos, así como a un procedimiento de verificación completo. Se estudian varias características que influyen en su estimación: la influencia de la falta de uniformidad de la malla, el efecto de las no linealidades del modelo matemático, diferentes condiciones de contorno y soluciones numéricas no convergidas. Esta parte de verificación ha sido presentada y aceptada para su publicación en el Journal of Computational Physics. Cap. 3 presenta un algoritmo de adaptación de malla basado en la estimación del error de truncación y compara los resultados con sensores de featured-based y adjointbased (en colaboración con Jorge Ponsín del INTA). Se consideran casos en dos y tres dimensiones, relevantes para la validación en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo ha sido presentado y aceptado en el AIAA Journal. También se incluye una extensión de estos métodos a las ecuaciones RANS (Reynolds Average Navier- Stokes), en donde adaptación de malla basada en _ y _ -extrapolación son aplicados a perfiles con viscosidad de alas. Este último trabajo se ha presentado en los Actas de la Institución de Ingenieros Mecánicos, Parte G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Palabras clave: adaptación de malla, predicción del error numérico, volúmenes finitos

Modal contribution and state space order selection in operational modal analysis

The estimation of modal parameters of a structure from ambient measurements has attracted the attention of many researchers in the last years. The procedure is now well established and the use of state space models, stochastic system identification methods and stabilization diagrams allows to identify the modes of the structure. In this paper the contribution of each identified mode to the measured vibration is discussed. This modal contribution is computed using the Kalman filter and it is an indicator of the importance of the modes. Also the variation of the modal contribution with the order of the model is studied. This analysis suggests selecting the order for the state space model as the order that includes the modes with higher contribution. The order obtained using this method is compared to those obtained using other well known methods, like Akaike criteria for time series or the singular values of the weighted projection matrix in the Stochastic Subspace Identification method. Finally, both simulated and measured vibration data are used to show the practicability of the derived technique. Finally, it is important to remark that the method can be used with any identification method working in the state space model.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Modal Parameters in Structures Using the Expectation Maximization Algorithm

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation in the context of the ASCE benchmark problem on structural health monitoring. The benchmark structure is a four-story, two-bay by two-bay steel-frame scale model structure built in the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at the University of British Columbia, Canada. This paper focuses on Phase I of the analytical benchmark studies. A MATLAB-based finite element analysis code obtained from the IASC-ASCE SHM Task Group web site is used to calculate the dynamic response of the prototype structure. A number of 100 simulations have been made using this MATLAB-based finite element analysis code in order to evaluate the proposed identification method. There are several techniques to realize system identification. In this work, stochastic subspace identification (SSI)method has been used for comparison. SSI identification method is a well known method and computes accurate estimates of the modal parameters. The principles of the SSI identification method has been introduced in the paper and next the proposed MLE with EM algorithm has been explained in detail. The advantages of the proposed structural identification method can be summarized as follows: (i) the method is based on maximum likelihood, that implies minimum variance estimates; (ii) EM is a computational simpler estimation procedure than other optimization algorithms; (iii) estimate more parameters than SSI, and these estimates are accurate. On the contrary, the main disadvantages of the method are: (i) EM algorithm is an iterative procedure and it consumes time until convergence is reached; and (ii) this method needs starting values for the parameters. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated using both the SSI method and the proposed MLE + EM method. The numerical results show that the proposed method identifies eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes reasonably well even in the presence of 10% measurement noises. These modal parameters are more accurate than the SSI estimated modal parameters.

Development of a wake model for wind farms based on an open source CFD solver. Strategies on parabolization and turbulence modeling

Wake effect represents one of the most important aspects to be analyzed at the engineering phase of every wind farm since it supposes an important power deficit and an increase of turbulence levels with the consequent decrease of the lifetime. It depends on the wind farm design, wind turbine type and the atmospheric conditions prevailing at the site. Traditionally industry has used analytical models, quick and robust, which allow carry out at the preliminary stages wind farm engineering in a flexible way. However, new models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are needed. These models must increase the accuracy of the output variables avoiding at the same time an increase in the computational time. Among them, the elliptic models based on the actuator disk technique have reached an extended use during the last years. These models present three important problems in case of being used by default for the solution of large wind farms: the estimation of the reference wind speed upstream of each rotor disk, turbulence modeling and computational time. In order to minimize the consequence of these problems, this PhD Thesis proposes solutions implemented under the open source CFD solver OpenFOAM and adapted for each type of site: a correction on the reference wind speed for the general elliptic models, the semi-parabollic model for large offshore wind farms and the hybrid model for wind farms in complex terrain. All the models are validated in terms of power ratios by means of experimental data derived from real operating wind farms.

Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.