An empirical mixed model to quantify climate influence on the growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in South-Eastern Spain

The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area. A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger?s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger?s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5?7.5% depending on site quality.

A Multi Ant Colony Optimization algorithm for a Mixed Car Assembly Line

This paper presents an ant colony optimization algorithm to sequence the mixed assembly lines considering the inventory and the replenishment of components. This is a NP-problem that cannot be solved to optimality by exact methods when the size of the problem growth. Groups of specialized ants are implemented to solve the different parts of the problem. This is intended to differentiate each part of the problem. Different types of pheromone structures are created to identify good car sequences, and good routes for the replenishment of components vehicle. The contribution of this paper is the collaborative approach of the ACO for the mixed assembly line and the replenishment of components and the jointly solution of the problem.

A silviculture-oriented spatio-temporal model for germination in Pinus pinea L. in the Spanish Northern Plateau based on a direct seeding experiment

Natural regeneration in Pinus pinea stands commonly fails throughout the Spanish Northern Plateau under current intensive regeneration treatments. As a result, extensive direct seeding is commonly conducted to guarantee regeneration occurrence. In a period of rationalization of the resources devoted to forest management, this kind of techniques may become unaffordable. Given that the climatic and stand factors driving germination remain unknown, tools are required to understand the process and temper the use of direct seeding. In this study, the spatio-temporal pattern of germination of P. pinea was modelled with those purposes. The resulting findings will allow us to (1) determine the main ecological variables involved in germination in the species and (2) infer adequate silvicultural alternatives. The modelling approach focuses on covariates which are readily available to forest managers. A two-step nonlinear mixed model was fitted to predict germination occurrence and abundance in P. pinea under varying climatic, environmental and stand conditions, based on a germination data set covering a 5-year period. The results obtained reveal that the process is primarily driven by climate variables. Favourable conditions for germination commonly occur in fall although the optimum window is often narrow and may not occur at all in some years. At spatial level, it would appear that germination is facilitated by high stand densities, suggesting that current felling intensity should be reduced. In accordance with other studies on P. pinea dispersal, it seems that denser stands during the regeneration period will reduce the present dependence on direct seeding.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Noninvasive monitoring of serial changes in pulmonary vascular resistance and acute vasodilator testing using cardiac magnetic resonance

Objectives The study sought to evaluate the ability of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) to monitor acute and long-term changes in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) noninvasively. Background PVR monitoring during the follow-up of patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and the response to vasodilator testing require invasive right heart catheterization. Methods An experimental study in pigs was designed to evaluate the ability of CMR to monitor: 1) an acute increase in PVR generated by acute pulmonary embolization (n = 10); 2) serial changes in PVR in chronic PH (n = 22); and 3) changes in PVR during vasodilator testing in chronic PH (n = 10). CMR studies were performed with simultaneous hemodynamic assessment using a CMR-compatible Swan-Ganz catheter. Average flow velocity in the main pulmonary artery (PA) was quantified with phase contrast imaging. Pearson correlation and mixed model analysis were used to correlate changes in PVR with changes in CMR-quantified PA velocity. Additionally, PVR was estimated from CMR data (PA velocity and right ventricular ejection fraction) using a formula previously validated. Results Changes in PA velocity strongly and inversely correlated with acute increases in PVR induced by pulmonary embolization (r = –0.92), serial PVR fluctuations in chronic PH (r = –0.89), and acute reductions during vasodilator testing (r = –0.89, p ≤ 0.01 for all). CMR-estimated PVR showed adequate agreement with invasive PVR (mean bias –1.1 Wood units,; 95% confidence interval: –5.9 to 3.7) and changes in both indices correlated strongly (r = 0.86, p < 0.01). Conclusions CMR allows for noninvasive monitoring of acute and chronic changes in PVR in PH. This capability may be valuable in the evaluation and follow-up of patients with PH.

Climatic factors control rodent seed predation in Pinus pinea L. stands in Central Spain

- Context: Pinus pinea L. presents serious problems of natural regeneration in managed forest of Central Spain. The species exhibits specific traits linked to frugivore activity. Therefore, information on plant–animal interactions may be crucial to understand regeneration failure. - Aims: Determining the spatio-temporal pattern of P. pinea seed predation by Apodemus sylvaticus L. and the factors involved. Exploring the importance of A. sylvaticus L. as a disperser of P. pinea. Identifying other frugivores and their seasonal patterns. - Methods: An intensive 24-month seed predation trial was carried out. The probability of seeds escaping predation was modelled through a zero-inflated binomial mixed model. Experiments on seed dispersal by A. sylvaticus were conducted. Cameras were set up to identify other potential frugivores. - Results: Decreasing rodent population in summer and masting enhances seed survival. Seeds were exploited more rapidly nearby parent trees and shelters. A. sylvaticus dispersal activity was found to be scarce. Corvids marginally preyed upon P. pinea seeds. - Conclusions: Survival of P. pinea seeds is climate-controlled through the timing of the dry period together with masting occurrence. Should germination not take place during the survival period, establishment may be limited. A. sylvaticus mediated dispersal does not modify the seed shadow. Seasonality of corvid activity points to a role of corvids in dispersal.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

An example of integration between en economic and an hydrologic model in the framework of water resource management problems

Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

A three-dimensional dynamical model of Amundsenisen icefield, Svalbard.

Amundsenisen is an ice field, 80 km2 in area, located in Southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. Radio-echo sounding measurements at 20 MHz show high intensity returns from a nearly flat basal reflector at four zones, all of them with ice thickness larger than 500m. These reflections suggest possible subglacial lakes. To determine whether basal liquid water is compatible with current pressure and temperature conditions, we aim at applying a thermo mechanical model with a free boundary at the bed defined as solution of a Stefan problem for the interface ice-subglaciallake. The complexity of the problem suggests the use of a bi-dimensional model, but this requires that well-defined flowlines across the zones with suspected subglacial lakes are available. We define these flow lines from the solution of a three-dimensional dynamical model, and this is the main goal of the present contribution. We apply a three-dimensional full-Stokes model of glacier dynamics to Amundsenisen icefield. We are mostly interested in the plateau zone of the icefield, so we introduce artificial vertical boundaries at the heads of the main outlet glaciers draining Amundsenisen. At these boundaries we set velocity boundary conditions. Velocities near the centres of the heads of the outlets are known from experimental measurements. The velocities at depth are calculated according to a SIA velocity-depth profile, and those at the rest of the transverse section are computed following Nye’s (1952) model. We select as southeastern boundary of the model domain an ice divide, where we set boundary conditions of zero horizontal velocities and zero vertical shear stresses. The upper boundary is a traction-free boundary. For the basal boundary conditions, on the zones of suspected subglacial lakes we set free-slip boundary conditions, while for the rest of the basal boundary we use a friction law linking the sliding velocity to the basal shear stress,in such a way that, contrary to the shallow ice approximation, the basal shear stress is not equal to the basal driving stress but rather part of the solution.

Structure function and Multifractal spectrum applied to Digital Elevation Model

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provides the information basis used for many geographic applications such as topographic and geomorphologic studies, landscape through GIS (Geographic Information Systems) among others. The DEM capacity to represent Earth?s surface depends on the surface roughness and the resolution used. Each DEM pixel depends on the scale used characterized by two variables: resolution and extension of the area studied. DEMs can vary in resolution and accuracy by the production method, although there are statistical characteristics that keep constant or very similar in a wide range of scales. Based on this property, several techniques have been applied to characterize DEM through multiscale analysis directly related to fractal geometry: multifractal spectrum and the structure function. The comparison of the results by both methods is discussed. The study area is represented by a 1024 x 1024 data matrix obtained from a DEM with a resolution of 10 x 10 m each point, which correspond with a region known as ?Monte de El Pardo? a property of Spanish National Heritage (Patrimonio Nacional Español) of 15820 Ha located to a short distance from the center of Madrid. Manzanares River goes through this area from North to South. In the southern area a reservoir is found with a capacity of 43 hm3, with an altitude of 603.3 m till 632 m when it is at the highest capacity. In the middle of the reservoir the minimum altitude of this area is achieved.

A Satisfaction-based Model for Affect Recognition from Conversational Features in Spoken Dialog Systems

Detecting user affect automatically during real-time conversation is the main challenge towards our greater aim of infusing social intelligence into a natural-language mixed-initiative High-Fidelity (Hi-Fi) audio control spoken dialog agent. In recent years, studies on affect detection from voice have moved on to using realistic, non-acted data, which is subtler. However, it is more challenging to perceive subtler emotions and this is demonstrated in tasks such as labelling and machine prediction. This paper attempts to address part of this challenge by considering the role of user satisfaction ratings and also conversational/dialog features in discriminating contentment and frustration, two types of emotions that are known to be prevalent within spoken human-computer interaction. However, given the laboratory constraints, users might be positively biased when rating the system, indirectly making the reliability of the satisfaction data questionable. Machine learning experiments were conducted on two datasets, users and annotators, which were then compared in order to assess the reliability of these datasets. Our results indicated that standard classifiers were significantly more successful in discriminating the abovementioned emotions and their intensities (reflected by user satisfaction ratings) from annotator data than from user data. These results corroborated that: first, satisfaction data could be used directly as an alternative target variable to model affect, and that they could be predicted exclusively by dialog features. Second, these were only true when trying to predict the abovementioned emotions using annotator?s data, suggesting that user bias does exist in a laboratory-led evaluation.

News in engineering education in Spain effective from 2010 in presence of external changes and mixed crisis, looking mostly to agro and civil engineers.

The engineering careers models were diverse in Europe, and are adopting now in Spain the Bolonia process for European Universities. Separated from older Universities, that are in part technically active, Civil Engineering (Caminos, Canales y Puertos) started at end of 18th century in Spain adopting the French models of Upper Schools for state civil servants with exam at entry. After 1800 intense wars, to conserve forest regions Ingenieros de Montes appeared as Upper School, and in 1855 also the Ingenieros Agrónomos to push up related techniques and practices. Other Engineers appeared as Upper Schools but more towards private factories. These ES got all adapted Lower Schools of Ingeniero Tecnico. Recently both grew much in number and evolved, linked also to recognized Professions. Spanish society, into European Community, evolved across year 2000, in part highly well, but with severe discordances, that caused severe youth unemployment with 2008-2011 crisis. With Bolonia process high formal changes step in from 2010-11, accepted with intense adaptation. The Lower Schools are changing towards the Upper Schools, and both that have shifted since 2010-11 various 4-years careers (Grado), some included into the precedent Professions, and diverse Masters. Acceptation of them to get students has started relatively well, and will evolve, and acceptation of new grades for employment in Spain, Europe or outside will be essential. Each Grado has now quite rigid curricula and programs, MOODLE was introduced to connect pupils, some specific uses of Personal Computers are taught in each subject. Escuela de Agronomos centre, reorganized with its old name in its precedent buildings at entrance of Campus Moncloa, offers Grados of Agronomic Engineering and Science for various public and private activities for agriculture, Alimentary Engineering for alimentary activities and control, Agro-Environmental Engineering more related to environment activities, and in part Biotechnology also in laboratories in Campus Monte-Gancedo for Biotechnology of Plants and Computational Biotechnology. Curricula include Basics, Engineering, Practices, Visits, English, ?project of end of career?, Stays. Some masters will conduce to specific professional diploma, list includes now Agro-Engineering, Agro-Forestal Biotechnology, Agro and Natural Resources Economy, Complex Physical Systems, Gardening and Landscaping, Rural Genie, Phytogenetic Resources, Plant Genetic Resources, Environmental Technology for Sustainable Agriculture, Technology for Human Development and Cooperation.

Towards model-driven engineering for mixed-criticality systems: multiPARTES approach

Mixed criticality systems emerges as a suitable solution for dealing with the complexity, performance and costs of future embedded and dependable systems. However, this paradigm adds additional complexity to their development. This paper proposes an approach for dealing with this scenario that relies on hardware virtualization and Model-Driven Engineering (MDE). Hardware virtualization ensures isolation between subsystems with different criticality levels. MDE is intended to bridge the gap between design issues and partitioning concerns. MDE tooling will enhance the functional models by annotating partitioning and extra-functional properties. System partitioning and subsystems allocation will be generated with a high degree of automation. System configuration will be validated for ensuring that the resources assigned to a partition are sufficient for executing the allocated software components and that time requirements are met.

Prion crystalization model and its application to recognition pattern

This paper introduces APA (?Artificial Prion Assembly?): a pattern recognition system based on artificial prion crystalization. Specifically, the system exhibits the capability to classify patterns according to the resulting prion self- assembly simulated with cellular automata. Our approach is inspired in the biological process of proteins aggregation, known as prions, which are assembled as amyloid fibers related with neurodegenerative disorders.

Finite element simulation of sandwich panels of plasterboard and rock wool under mixed mode fracture

This paper presents the results of research on mixed mode fracture of sandwich panels of plasterboard and rock wool. The experimental data of the performed tests are supplied. The specimens were made from commercial panels. Asymmetrical three-point bending tests were performed on notched specimens. Three sizes of geometrically similar specimens were tested for studying the size effect. The paper also includes the numerical simulation of the experimental results by using an embedded cohesive crack model.The involved parameters for modelling are previously measured by standardised tests.