Impact of nuclear data uncertainties in the Phase-1B Benchmark

Accurate control over the spent nuclear fuel content is essential for its safe and optimized transportation, storage and management. Consequently, the reactivity of spent fuel and its isotopic content must be accurately determined. Nowadays, to predict isotopic evolution throughout irradiation and decay periods is not a problem thanks to the development of powerful codes and methodologies. In order to have a realistic confidence level in the prediction of spent fuel isotopic content, it is desirable to determine how uncertainties in the basic nuclear data affect isotopic prediction calculations by quantifying their associated uncertainties

Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Transmutation Calculations Using ACAB Code

The assessment of the accuracy of parameters related to the reactor core performance (e.g., ke) and f el cycle (e.g., isotopic evolution/transmutation) due to the uncertainties in the basic nuclear data (ND) is a critical issue. Different error propagation techniques (adjoint/forward sensitivity analysis procedures and/or Monte Carlo technique) can be used to address by computational simulation the systematic propagation of uncertainties on the final parameters. To perform this uncertainty assessment, the ENDF covariance les (variance/correlation in energy and cross- reactions-isotopes correlations) are required. In this paper, we assess the impact of ND uncertainties on the isotopic prediction for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) for a discharge burnup of 150 GWd/tHM. The complete set of uncertainty data for cross sections (EAF2007/UN, SCALE6.0/COVA-44G), radioactive decay and fission yield data (JEFF-3.1.1) are processed and used in ACAB code.

Importance of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Criticality Calculations

To study the propagation of the uncertainty from basic data across different scale and physics phenomena -> through complex coupled multi-physics and multi-scale simulations

Impact of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in the Phase-1B Benchmark

Accurate control over the spent nuclear fuel content is essential for its safe and optimized transportation, storage and management. Consequently, the reactivity of spent fuel and its isotopic content must be accurately determined.

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties in fuel cycle calculations using MONTE-CARLO Technique

The uncertainty propagation in fuel cycle calculations due to Nuclear Data (ND) is a important important issue for : issue for : • Present fuel cycles (e.g. high burnup fuel programme) • New fuel cycles designs (e.g. fast breeder reactors and ADS) Different error propagation techniques can be used: • Sensitivity analysis • Response Response Surface Method Surface Method • Monte Carlo technique Then, p p , , in this paper, it is assessed the imp y pact of ND uncertainties on the decay heat and radiotoxicity in two applications: • Fission Pulse Decay ( y Heat calculation (FPDH) • Conceptual design of European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT)

Isotopic uncertainty assessment due to nuclear data uncertainties in high-burnup samples.

The accurate prediction of the spent nuclear fuel content is essential for its safe and optimized transportation, storage and management. This isotopic evolution can be predicted using powerful codes and methodologies throughout irradiation as well as cooling time periods. However, in order to have a realistic confidence level in the prediction of spent fuel isotopic content, it is desirable to determine how uncertainties affect isotopic prediction calculations by quantifying their associated uncertainties.

Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework

In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rurallivelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies’ implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rurallivelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide.

Importance of nuclear data uncertainties in criticality calculations

The aim of this paper is to study the importance of nuclear data uncertainties in the prediction of the uncertainties in keff for LWR (Light Water Reactor) unit-cells. The first part of this work is focused on the comparison of different sensitivity/uncertainty propagation methodologies based on TSUNAMI and MCNP codes; this study is undertaken for a fresh-fuel at different operational conditions. The second part of this work studies the burnup effect where the indirect contribution due to the uncertainty of the isotopic evolution is also analyzed.

Improved estimation of Weibull Parameters considering unreliability uncertainties

We propose a linear regression method for estimating Weibull parameters from life tests. The method uses stochastic models of the unreliability at each failure instant. As a result, a heteroscedastic regression problem arises that is solved by weighted least squares minimization. The main feature of our method is an innovative s-normalization of the failure data models, to obtain analytic expressions of centers and weights for the regression. The method has been Monte Carlo contrasted with Benard?s approximation, and Maximum Likelihood Estimation; and it has the highest global scores for its robustness, and performance.

Uncertainties in the design of support structures and foundations for offshore wind turbines

Offshore wind industry has exponentially grown in the last years. Despite this growth, there are still many uncertainties in this field. This paper analyzes some current uncertainties in the offshore wind market, with the aim of going one step further in the development of this sector. To do this, some already identified uncertainties compromising offshore wind farm structural design have been identified and described in the paper. Examples of these identified uncertainties are the design of the transition piece and the difficulties for the soil properties characterization. Furthermore, this paper deals with other uncertainties not identified yet due to the limited experience in the sector. To do that, current and most used offshore wind standards and recommendations related to the design of foundation and support structures (IEC 61400-1, 2005; IEC 61400-3, 2009; DNV-OS-J101, Design of Offshore Wind Turbine, 2013 and Rules and Guidelines Germanischer Lloyd, WindEnergie, 2005) have been analyzed. These new identified uncertainties are related to the lifetime and return period, loads combination, scour phenomenon and its protection, Morison e Froude Krilov and diffraction regimes, wave theory, different scale and liquefaction. In fact, there are a lot of improvements to make in this field. Some of them are mentioned in this paper, but the future experience in the matter will make it possible to detect more issues to be solved and improved.

Propagation of Cross-Section Uncertainties in Criticality Calculations in the Framework of UAM-Phase I Using MCNPX-2.7e and SCALE-6.1

In the framework of the OECD/NEA project on Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) for Design, Operation, and Safety Analysis of LWRs, several approaches and codes are being used to deal with the exercises proposed in Phase I, “Specifications and Support Data for Neutronics Cases.” At UPM, our research group treats these exercises with sensitivity calculations and the “sandwich formula” to propagate cross-section uncertainties. Two different codes are employed to calculate the sensitivity coefficients of to cross sections in criticality calculations: MCNPX-2.7e and SCALE-6.1. The former uses the Differential Operator Technique and the latter uses the Adjoint-Weighted Technique. In this paper, the main results for exercise I-2 “Lattice Physics” are presented for the criticality calculations of PWR. These criticality calculations are done for a TMI fuel assembly at four different states: HZP-Unrodded, HZP-Rodded, HFP-Unrodded, and HFP-Rodded. The results of the two different codes above are presented and compared. The comparison proves a good agreement between SCALE-6.1 and MCNPX-2.7e in uncertainty that comes from the sensitivity coefficients calculated by both codes. Differences are found when the sensitivity profiles are analysed, but they do not lead to differences in the uncertainty.

GRS Results for the Burnup Pin-cell Benchmark Propagation of Cross-Section, Fission Yields and Decay Data Uncertainties

GRS Results for the Burnup Pin-cell Benchmark Propagation of Cross-Section, Fission Yields and Decay Data Uncertainties

Analysis of Neutron Thermal Scattering Data Uncertainties in PWRs

Analysis of Neutron Thermal Scattering Data Uncertainties in PWRs

Propagation of U235-238, Pu239 and STL Nuclear Data Uncertainties for PWR core analysis

An uncertainty propagation methodology based on Monte Carlo method is applied to PWR nuclear design analysis to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties in 235,238 U, 239 Pu and Scattering Thermal Library for Hydrogen in water. This uncertainty analysis is compared with the design and acceptance criteria to assure the adequacy of bounding estimates in safety margins.

Impact of Nuclear Data Uncertainties on Advanced Fuel Cycles and Their Irradiated Fuel - A comparison between Libraries

The uncertainties on the isotopic composition throughout the burnup due to the nuclear data uncertainties are analysed. The different sources of uncertainties: decay data, fission yield and cross sections; are propagated individually, and their effect assessed. Two applications are studied: EFIT (an ADS-like reactor) and ESFR (Sodium Fast Reactor). The impact of the uncertainties on cross sections provided by the EAF-2010, SCALE6.1 and COMMARA-2.0 libraries are compared. These Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) studies have been carried out with a Monte Carlo sampling approach implemented in the depletion/activation code ACAB. Such implementation has been improved to overcome depletion/activation problems with variations of the neutron spectrum.