Simulating potential growth and yield of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) with PALMSIM: Model description, evaluation and application.

Reducing the gap between water-limited potential yield and actual yield in oil palm production systems through intensification is seen as an important option for sustainably increasing palm oil production. Simulation models can play an important role in quantifying water-limited potential yield, and therefore the scope for intensification, but no oil palm model exists that is both simple enough and at the same time incorporates sufficient plant physiological knowledge to be generally applicable across sites with different growing conditions. The objectives of this study therefore were to develop a model (PALMSIM) that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation and to evaluate model performance against measured oil palm yields under optimal water and nutrient management for a range of sites across Indonesia and Malaysia. The maximum observed yield in the field matches the corresponding simulated yield for dry bunch weight with a RMSE of 1.7 Mg ha?1 year?1 against an observed yield of 18.8 Mg ha?1. Sensitivity analysis showed that PALMSIM is robust: simulated changes in yield caused by modifying the parameters by 10% are comparable to other tree crop model evaluations. While we acknowledge that, depending on the soils and climatic environment, yields may be often water limited, we suggest a relatively simple physiological approach to simulate potential yield, which can be usefully applied to high rainfall environments and is considered as a first step in developing an oil palm model that also simulates water-limited potential yield. To illustrate the application possibil- ities of the model, PALMSIM was used to create a potential yield map for Indonesia and Malaysia by sim- ulating the growth and yield at a resolution of 0.1?. This map of potential yield is considered as a first step towards a decision support tool that can identify potentially productive, but at the moment degraded sites in Indonesia and Malaysia. ?

Nitrogen Fertirrigation: an Integrated Agronomic and Environmental Study

Proper management of the N applied to crops is necessary in order to increase yield, improve water use efficiency (WUE) and reduce the pollutions risks with the least economic, environmental and health costs. A field study with melon crops was conducted during 2005, 2006 and 2007 in central Spain, using 11 different amounts of N. Some environmental indexes have been proposed, to provide an essential tool for determining the groundwater pollution risks associated with common agricultural practices. These indexes are related to variation in the nitrate concentration of drinking water (Impact Index (II)) and groundwater (Environmental Impact Index (EII)). Also, the Management Efficiency (ME) was calculated, which is related to the amount of fruit produced per gram of N leached (Nl). To determine the optimum dose of N, it was also necessary to know the N mineralisation (NM). Our results show that 160 kg ha?1 of available N (Nav) produced the maximum fruit yield (FY), enhanced WUE and gave an NM of 85 kg ha?1, while the impact indexes did not exceed the fixed maximum allowable limits and ME was adequate. The proposed indexes proved to be an effective tool for determining the risk of nitrate contamination and confirmed that the optimum dose of N corresponded to the maximum FY with minimal loss of Nl.

Nitrogen fertigation: An integrated agronomic and environmental study

Proper management of the N applied to crops is necessary in order to increase yield, improve water use efficiency (WUE) and reduce the pollutions risks with the least economic, environmental and health costs. A field study with melon crops was conducted during 2005, 2006 and 2007 in central Spain, using 11 different amounts of N. Some environmental indexes have been proposed, to provide an essential tool for determining the groundwater pollution risks associated with common agricultural practices. These indexes are related to variation in the nitrate concentration of drinking water (Impact Index (II)) and groundwater (Environmental Impact Index (EII)). Also, the Management Efficiency (ME) was calculated, which is related to the amount of fruit produced per gram of N leached (Nl). To determine the optimum dose of N, it was also necessary to know the N mineralisation (NM). Our results show that 160 kg ha−1 of available N (Nav) produced the maximum fruit yield (FY), enhanced WUE and gave an NM of 85 kg ha−1, while the impact indexes did not exceed the fixed maximum allowable limits and ME was adequate. The proposed indexes proved to be an effective tool for determining the risk of nitrate contamination and confirmed that the optimum dose of N corresponded to the maximum FY with minimal loss of Nl.

Respuesta fisiológica y agronómica del olivar en seto (cv. Arbequina) a la orientación de filas y al ancho de calle: relación entre la producción y calidad del aceite y la radiación interceptada

En las últimas dos décadas, los productores han plantado olivares en seto para lograr la mecanización de la poda y en especial de la cosecha, reducir los costes de mano de obra y permitir intervenciones de manejo rápidas y oportunas. Los olivares se desarrollaron en ausencia del conocimiento científico, sobre el diseño óptimo de la estructura de la copa, necesario para incrementar la producción y calidad del aceite. En contraste, con los árboles muy espaciados y distribuidos uniformemente de las plantaciones tradicionales, en el olivar en seto hay una marcada variabilidad espacial y temporal de la radiación disponible en función del diseño de la plantación. Así, conocer la respuesta fisiológica y productiva del olivo a la radiación resulta fundamental en el olivar en seto. La orientación de las filas y el ancho de calle son aspectos que se deciden en el diseño de las plantaciones en seto. Ambos aspectos modifican la radiación interceptada por la canopia y, por lo tanto, pueden incidir en la productividad y calidad del aceite. Una vez realizada la plantación no pueden ser modificados, y así las ventajas o desventajas permanecerán fijas durante toda la vida productiva del olivar. A pesar de esto, el impacto de la orientación de las filas y el ancho de calle han recibido poca atención en olivos y en la mayoría de los frutales conducidos en seto. Por todo ello, los objetivos principales de esta tesis fueron, (i) evaluar el efecto de la orientación del seto y del ancho de calle, sobre la productividad y calidad del aceite, (ii) evaluar un modelo que estime la radiación dentro de la canopia. Este modelo permitirá cuantificar las relaciones entre la radiación y los componentes del rendimiento y calidad del aceite de olivares en setos con un amplio rango de estructuras y (iii) conocer la variabilidad en las características de las hojas (morfológicas y fisiológicas) y de los tejidos del fruto (tamaño y composición) en diferentes posiciones de la copa de los setos. Para ello, se dispuso de 3 ensayos de olivar en seto (cv. Arbequina) implantados en 2008 en el municipio de La Puebla de Montalbán, Toledo. La primera cosecha fue en 2010 y a partir del 2012 los setos formaron una copa continua. A partir de ese año, los setos se mantuvieron mediante poda, con similar ancho (~1 m) y altura (~2,5 m), acordes a las dimensiones de la cosechadora vendimiadora. En los años 2012 y 2013 se estudió en profundidad la respuesta de las plantas de estos ensayos. En el ensayo 1, los setos fueron plantados con cuatro orientaciones de filas: N–S, NE–SO, NO–SE y E–O y el mismo ancho de calle (4 m). En los otros dos ensayos, los setos fueron plantados con tres anchos de calle (5,0, 4,0 y 2,5 m), y con filas orientadas N–S (ensayo 2) y E–O (ensayo 3). La respuesta de la orientación de las filas se evaluó a nivel de seto y de estratos del seto (alturas y caras), a través de mediciones del crecimiento de brotes, componentes reproductivos, características y temperatura del fruto, estado hídrico del suelo y de las plantas, fotosíntesis neta de las hojas y contenido de ácidos grasos. Los setos orientados NE–SO (2,7 t/ha) lograron la mayor producción de aceite, que fue significativamente más alta que la de los setos E–O (2,3 t/ha). La producción de aceite de los setos E–O no se diferenció estadísticamente de los setos N–S (2,5 t/ha). Las diferencias productivas entre orientaciones fueron explicadas por el número de frutos en cosecha, a su vez la variación en el número de frutos estuvo asociada al efecto de la orientación de las filas sobre el número de yemas desarrolladas y el porcentaje de inflorescencias fértiles. Las hojas en las caras iluminadas de los setos NE–SO y N–S presentaron mayor tasa fotosintética a la mañana (~10.0 h) que los setos E–O, en el año 2012, pero no en 2013. La orientación de las filas no tuvo un efecto significativo en el contenido de ácidos grasos de los aceites extraídos, esto ocurrió a pesar de variaciones en la temperatura interna de los frutos (3 °C) y de la radiación (40%) entre las distintas caras de los setos. La orientación del seto afectó significativamente al contenido relativo de agua del suelo, donde setos E–O presentaron valores más altos (12%) que setos N–S durante el verano y otoño. Sin embargo, el potencial hídrico de tallo fue similar entre orientaciones. En los ensayos 2 y 3, se evaluó el efecto que produce, a nivel de seto y de estratos (caras y alturas), reducir el ancho de calle de 5,0 a 4,0 y 2,5 m, en un seto orientado N–S y otro E–O, respectivamente. La relación entre altura/ancho de calle libre aumentó 0,6 a 0,8 y 1,6, al reducir 5,0, 4,0 y 2,5 m el ancho de calle, mientras la longitud de seto y el volumen de copa por hectárea incrementó 100% al reducir de 5,0 a 2,5 m, el ancho de calle. En los setos orientados N–S, la producción de aceite por ha acumulada en 4 campañas, incrementó significativamente un 52 %, al reducir de 5,0 a 2,5 m el ancho de calle. Los setos N–S con calle más estrecha (2,5 m) tuvieron un 19% menos frutos que los setos con calle más ancha (5,0 m) y a su vez el 60% de los mismos se localizaron los estratos altos de la canopia de los setos con calles estrecha en comparación al 40% en setos con calle de 5,0 m. En los estratos más bajos de los setos con calles de 2,5m hubo menor crecimiento de los brotes y los frutos tuvieron menor peso seco, contenido de aceite y madurez, que los frutos en los estratos bajos de los setos a 5,0 m. Los componentes del rendimiento y características de los frutos (agua y madurez) fueron similares entre la caras E y O, independientemente del ancho de calle. En los setos orientados E–O, la producción de aceite por ha acumulada en 4 campañas, no respondió significativamente al ancho de calle, debido a una disminución significativa en el número de frutos y producción de aceite por m de seto, al reducir de 5,0 a 2,5 m, el ancho de calle. En los setos orientados E–O, con calles de 5,0 m, los frutos presentaron similar peso seco, contenido de aceite y agua, en las caras S y N, sin embargo, cuando la calle fue reducida a 2,5, los frutos de la cara S fueron más pesado y maduros que en la cara N. Independientemente del ancho de calle y de la orientación del seto, el aceite presentó mayor contenido de ácidos palmitoleico, palmítico, esteárico y linoleico en los frutos del estrato más alto de la canopia disminuyendo hacia la base. En contraste, el contenido de ácido oleico aumentó desde el estrato más alto hacia la base de los setos. Las diferencias en el contenido de ácidos grasos entre la parte alta y baja de los setos, incrementó al reducir el ancho de calle en los setos N–S, pero no en los E-O. En conclusión, en olivares en seto, reducir el ancho de calle permite incrementar la producción de aceite, en setos orientados N–S, pero no en E–O. Un modelo que estima la cantidad y distribución de la radiación en toda la copa del seto, fue utilizado para estimar la radiación interceptada en distintos estratos del seto. El modelo requiere un valor del coeficiente de extinción (k) para estimar la transmisión de radiación a través de la copa, el cual fue obtenido experimentalmente (k=1,2). Utilizando los datos del ensayo 1, un único modelo lineal relacionó el peso seco y el rendimiento graso de setos con la radiación interceptada por los distintos estratos de setos con cuatro orientaciones de filas. La densidad de frutos fue también relacionada con la radiación, pero más débilmente. En los setos orientados N–S, plantados con tres anchos de calles, (ensayo 2) el contenido de ácidos palmitoleico y linoleico del aceite incrementó linealmente con el incremento de la radiación interceptada, mientras el contenido ácido oleico disminuyó linealmente con el incremento de la radiación. El contenido de ácidos grasos del aceite no estuvo relacionado con la radiación interceptada en setos orientados E–O (Ensayo 3). En los setos N–S y E–O, plantados con anchos de calle de 2,5 m, se estudiaron las interacciones entre la radiación y características de las hojas, número de fruto, tamaño y composición de los frutos a nivel de órgano, tejido y células. Independientemente de la orientación del seto, el área y el contenido de clorofila de las hojas incrementaron significativamente en los estratos más bajos de los setos. Mientras, las hojas de los estratos medios del seto presentaron mayor capacidad fotosintética que en los estratos bajos y alto de los setos. Los estratos del seto que interceptaron más radiación produjeron frutos con mayor tamaño y contenido de aceite en el mesocarpo, sin efectos sobre el tamaño y composición del endocarpo. A nivel celular, los frutos expuestos a mayor nivel de radiación desarrollaron en el mesocarpo células de mayor tamaño en comparación a frutos menos expuestos, mientras el número de células no fue afectado. Adicionalmente, el número y tamaño de las células estuvo relacionado con la composición del mesocarpo en términos de aceite, agua y peso seco menos aceite. Esta tesis, contribuye, desde una perspectiva integral del cultivo del olivo, a cuantificar el impacto de la orientación y ancho de calle sobre la producción y calidad del aceite en olivares conducidos en setos. El análisis y discusión de la relación entre la radiación y los componentes del rendimiento y calidad del aceite, puede ayudar a diseñar plantaciones en seto con dimensiones óptimas para la intercepción de la radiación. ABSTRACT In the last two decades, olive hedgerow system has been established by commercial growers to allow continuous mechanized pruning and especially harvest, reduce costs of manual labour and allow more rapid and timely management interventions. The adoption of hedgerow was done in the absence of adequate scientific knowledge of the impact of this orchard structure and associated mechanization on tree response, yield and quality, after centuries in low-density orchards and open-formed trees. The row orientation and width alley are fundamental aspects in the hedgerow design and have been scarcely studied in olive. Both aspects modify the radiation intercepted by the canopy, and consequently the productivity and oil quality, and once defined in orchard planting cannot be changed, so advantages and disadvantages remain fixed for the lifespan of the orchard. The main objectives of this thesis were to (i) evaluate the impact of the row orientation and width alley on productivity and oil quality by the measurements of profile of the determining processes of shoot growth, fruit temperature, yield components and fruit and oil characteristics on opposite sides of olive hedgerows. Additionally, the effect of row orientation on the plant water status was also evaluated; (ii) evaluate a mathematical model for estimating the radiation within the canopy and quantify the relationships between the radiation estimated and yield components and oil quality in olive hedgerows under wide range of structures and; (iii) determine the variability in the characteristics of the leaves (morphological and physiological) and fruit tissues (size and composition) in different positions of the hedgerows canopy. Three plots of olive hedgerows (cv. Arbequina) planted in 2008 in La Puebla de Montalbán, Toledo were evaluated during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. The hedgerows were maintained by lateral pruning and topping with the same width (1 m) and height (2.5 m) compatible with the intended harvester. In a plot (experiment 1), the hedgerows were planted with the same width alley (4 m) and four row orientations: N–S, NE–SW, NW–SE and E–W. Other two plots (Experiments 2 and 3) separated by approximately 100 m were planted with N–S and E–O oriented rows and three alley widths in each orientation: 5.0, 4.0 and 2.5 m. In the exp. 1, maximum fruit yield were achieved by NE–SW and NW–SW (15.7 t/ha). Of these, NE–SW achieved the highest oil yield (2.7 t/ha). There were no differences in fruit or oil yield between N–S (2.5 t oil/ha) and E–W (2.3 t oil/ha) orientations. Fruit number was the most important component to explain these differences, by previous influence on number of bud developed and percentage of fertile inflorescences. Fruit maturity and oil quality on both sides of the hedgerows were not affected by row orientation. This occurred despite significant variations in the internal fruit temperature, which was closely related to the irradiance received by the canopy and the time of day. Additionally, row orientation significantly affected the relative water content of the soil, where E–W oriented hedgerows showed consistently higher values than N–S during summer-autumn season. The stem water potential at midday, however, was similar between orientations, revealing possible lower water consumption of E–W than N–S oriented hedgerows. In the exp. 2, regardless of row orientation, reduction of row spacing from 5.0 to 4.0 and 2.5 m increases the ratio of canopy depth to free alley width (Al/An) from 0.6 to 0.8 and 1.6, respectively, and ads 25 and 100 % more hedgerow length per ha. In N–S oriented hedgerows, oil production per ha increased significantly by 14 and 52 % in 4.0 m and 2.5 m relative to 5.0 m row spacing, the effect being proportionally less than the increase in hedgerow length per ha. Hedgerows spaced 2.5 m with Al/An = 1.6 produced relatively fewer fruits per unit length than did wider spacings and were preferentially distributed in upper layers. Fruits located at the bottom of the canopy were smaller, with lower oil content and were less mature. In E–W oriented hedgerows, oil production per ha did not respond significantly to row spacing, despite the doubling of row length from the 5.0 to the 2.5 m row spacing. The explanation was found in fewer fruit per unit length of hedgerow and smaller oil content at 2.5 m than 5.0 m row spacing, averaged over the experimental period. In E–W hedgerows spaced at 5.0 m with Al/An = 0.6, the vertical profiles of fruit characteristics (mass, oil and water contents, and maturity) were similar between opposing sides, but at 4.0 m (Al/An= 0.8) and 2.5 m (Al/An=1.6) spacings, fruits on the S side were heavier and more mature than on N side. The oil extracted from fruits harvested at different heights of N–S and E–W oriented hedgerows showed higher palmitoleic, palmitic, stearic and linoleic contents at the canopy top decreasing toward base. The oleic content was reverse, increased from top to base. In N–S hedgerows, vertical gradients increased by reducing the alley width, but not in the E–W oriented hedgerows. The simulation of internal canopy irradiance was related in a single relationship (R2 = 0.63) to the vertical profiles of fruit weight and oil content of olive hedgerows with wide range of structures. The density of fruits was also associated with the irradiance but more weakly (R2 = 0.27), and revealed a more complex response involving changes in the vegetative structure by canopy management (topping) and the effect of radiation on the previous sequence that defines the number of fruits. The vertical profiles of oil quality traits were closely associated to canopy irradiance, but only when the N–S oriented hedgerows were considered. The contents of palmitoleic and linoleic acid in the oil increased linearly when intercepted irradiance increased from 9 to 19 mol PAR/m2. In contrast, oleic content decreased linearly in this irradiance range. Additionally, we advanced knowledge regarding the interactions among irradiance and leaf, fruit number, size and composition at organ-, tissue- and cellular- levels. The irradiance received at different positions in the canopy strongly affected the leaf area and chlorophyll content, and mesocarp size and composition (water and oil), without effects on endocarp size and composition. At the cellular level, light-exposed fruit developed larger mesocarp cells than shaded fruits, but cell number was not affected. Our results indicate that cell number and size are related to mesocarp composition in term of oil, water, and dry weight menus oil, although the specific manner in which they interact remains to be determined. This research contributes from an integral perspective of olive growing to quantify the impact of row orientation and width alley on productivity and oil quality in hedgerows systems. The analysis and discussion of the relationships between radiation and yield components and oil quality can help understand the impact of design olive hedgerows in general and in a wide range of environmental conditions.

Growth dynamics and yield of melon as influenced by nitrogen fertilizer

Nitrogen (N) is an important nutrient for melon (Cucumis melo L.) production. However there is scanty information about the amount necessary to maintain an appropriate balance between growth and yield. Melon vegetative organs must develop sufficiently to intercept light and accumulate water and nutrients but it is also important to obtain a large reproductive-vegetative dry weight ratio to maximize the fruit yield. We evaluated the influence of different N amounts on the growth, production of dry matter and fruit yield of a melon ‘Piel de sapo’ type. A three-year field experiment was carried out from May to September. Melons were subjected to an irrigation depth of 100% crop evapotranspiration and to 11 N fertilization rates, ranging 11 to 393 kg ha –1 in the three years. The dry matter production of leaves and stems increased as the N amount increased. The dry matter of the whole plant was affected similarly, while the fruit dry matter decreased as the N amount was increased above 112, 93 and 95 kg ha –1 , in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The maximum Leaf Area Index (LAI), 3.1, was obtained at 393 kg ha –1 of N. The lowest N supply reduced the fruit yield by 21%, while the highest increased the vegetative growth, LAI and Leaf Area Duration (LAD), but reduced yield by 24% relative to the N93 treatment. Excessive applications of N increase vegetative growth at the expense of reproductive growth. For this melon type, rates about 90-100 kg ha –1 of N are sufficient for adequate plant growth, development and maximum production. To obtain fruit yield close to the maximum, the leaf N concentration at the end of the crop cycle should be higher than 19.5 g kg –1

Optimal and Long-Term Dynamic Transport Policy Design: Seeking Maximum Social Welfare through a Pricing Scheme.

This article presents an alternative approach to the decision-making process in transport strategy design. The study explores the possibility of integrating forecasting, assessment and optimization procedures in support of a decision-making process designed to reach the best achievable scenario through mobility policies. Long-term evaluation, as required by a dynamic system such as a city, is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The social welfare achieved by implementing mobility LUTI model policies is measured through a cost-benefit analysis and maximized through an optimization process throughout the evaluation period. The method is tested by optimizing a pricing policy scheme in Madrid on a cordon toll in a context requiring system efficiency, social equity and environmental quality. The optimized scheme yields an appreciable increase in social surplus through a relatively low rate compared to other similar pricing toll schemes. The results highlight the different considerations regarding mobility impacts on the case study area, as well as the major contributors to social welfare surplus. This leads the authors to reconsider the cost-analysis approach, as defined in the study, as the best option for formulating sustainability measures.

Summer deficit irrigation strategies in hedgerow olive orchard cv. ‘Arbequina’: Effect on fruit characteristics and yield.

Maximum production in hedgerow olive orchards is likely not achieved with maximum evapotranspiration over the long-term. Thus, regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) should be considered as a management option. Four irrigation treatments were evaluated during the summer when olive is most drought resistant. Control (CON) was irrigated to maintain the rootzone close to field capacity. Severe water deficit was applied by irrigating 30% CON from end of fruit drop to end July (DI-J) and from end July until beginning of oil synthesis (DI-A). Less severe water deficit was applied during July and August (DI-JA) by irrigating 50% CON. Flowering, fruiting, abscission, fruit development, fresh and dry weight of fruits, and oil production were evaluated. There were not significant differences in number of buds initiated, number of fruits per inflorescence and fruit drop. Oil production was significantly different between irrigation treatments in all experimental years. CON produced more oil and fruit with higher oil% than DI-A and DI-JA. Oil production of DI-J was not significantly reduced compared to CON and oil% was greater. DI-J was the most effective RDI strategy; with 16% less applied water relative to CON average loss in oil production of 8% was not significantly different to CON. While DI-JA saved most water (27%), oil production was reduced by 15%. Greatest loss in oil production (21%) was observed in DI-A with water saving of 22%.

Current ozone levels threaten gross primary production and yield of Mediterranean annual pastures and nitrogen modulates the response

Pastures are among the most important ecosystems in Europe considering their biodiversity and dis- tribution area. However, their response to increasing tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) and nitrogen (N) deposi- tion, two of the main drivers of global change, is still uncertain. A new Open-Top Chamber (OTC) experiment was performed in central Spain, aiming to study annual pasture response to O 3 and N in close to natural growing conditions. A mixture of six species of three representative families was sowed in the fi eld. Plants were exposed for 40 days to four O 3 treatments: fi ltered air, non- fi ltered air (NFA) repro- ducing ambient levels and NFA supplemented with 20 and 40 nl l � 1 O 3 . Three N treatments were considered to reach the N integrated doses of “ background ” , þ 20 or þ 40 kg N ha � 1 . Ozone signi fi cantly reduced green and total aboveground biomass (maximum reduction 25%) and increased the senescent biomass (maximum increase 40%). Accordingly, O 3 decreased community Gross Primary Production due to both a global reduction of ecosystem CO 2 exchange and an increase of ecosystem respiration. Nitrogen could partially counterbalance O 3 effects on aboveground biomass when the levels of O 3 were moderate, but at the same time O 3 exposure reduced the fertilization effect of higher N availability. Therefore, O 3 must be considered as a stress factor for annual pastures in the Mediterranean areas.

Adapting micro-economy of energy corporations to macroeconomy policies aiming at a sustainable economy

Esta Tesis surgió ante la intensidad y verosimilitud de varias señales o “warnings” asociadas a políticas dirigidas a reducir el peso del petróleo en el sector energético, tanto por razones económicas, como geopolíticas, como ambientales. Como tal Tesis se consolidó al ir incorporando elementos novedosos pero esenciales en el mundo petrolífero, particularmente las “tecnologías habilitantes”, tanto de incidencia directa, como el “fracking” como indirecta, del cual es un gran ejemplo el Vehículo Eléctrico (puro). La Tesis se definió y estructuró para elaborar una serie de indagaciones y disquisiciones, que comportaran un conjunto de conclusiones que fueran útiles para las corporaciones energéticas. También para la comprensión de la propia evolución del sector y de sus prestaciones técnicas y económicas, de cara a dar el servicio que los usuarios finales piden. Dentro de las tareas analíticas y reflexivas de la Tesis, se acuñaron ciertos términos conceptuales para explicar más certeramente la realidad del sector, y tal es el caso del “Investment burden”, que pondera la inversión específica (€/W) requerida por una instalación, con la duración del período de construcción y los riesgos tanto tangibles como regulatorios. Junto a ello la Tesis propone una herramienta de estudio y prognosis, denominada “Market integrated energy efficiency”, especialmente aplicable a dicotomías. Tal es el caso del coche térmico, versus coche eléctrico. El objetivo es optimizar una determinada actividad energética, o la productividad total del sector. Esta Tesis propone varias innovaciones, que se pueden agrupar en dos niveles: el primero dentro del campo de la Energía, y el segundo dentro del campo de las corporaciones, y de manera especial de las corporaciones del sector hidrocarburos. A nivel corporativo, la adaptación a la nueva realidad será función directa de la capacidad de cada corporación para desarrollar y/o comprar las tecnologías que permitan mantener o aumentar cuota de mercado. Las conclusiones de la Tesis apuntan a tres opciones principalmente para un replanteamiento corporativo: - Diversificación energética - Desplazamiento geográfico - Beneficiándose de posibles nuevos nichos tecnológicos, como son: • En upstream: Recuperación estimulada de petróleo mediante uso de energías renovables • En downstream: Aditivos orientados a reducir emisiones • En gestión del cambio: Almacenamiento energético con fines operativos Algunas políticas energéticas siguen la tendencia de crecimiento cero de algunos países de la OCDE. No obstante, la realidad mundial es muy diferente a la de esos países. Por ejemplo, según diversas estimaciones (basadas en bancos de datos solventes, referenciados en la Tesis) el número de vehículos aumentará desde aproximadamente mil millones en la actualidad hasta el doble en 2035; mientras que la producción de petróleo sólo aumentará de 95 a 145 millones de barriles al día. Un aumento del 50% frente a un aumento del 100%. Esto generará un curioso desajuste, que se empezará a sentir en unos pocos años. Las empresas y corporaciones del sector hidrocarburos pueden perder el monopolio que atesoran actualmente en el sector transporte frente a todas las demás fuentes energéticas. Esa pérdida puede quedar compensada por una mejor gestión de todas sus capacidades y una participación más integrada en el mundo de la energía, buscando sinergias donde hasta ahora no había sino distanciamiento. Los productos petrolíferos pueden alimentar cualquier tipo de maquina térmica, como las turbinas Brayton, o alimentar reformadores para la producción masiva de H2 para su posterior uso en pilas combustible. El almacenamiento de productos derivados del petróleo no es ningún reto ni plantea problema alguno; y sin embargo este almacenamiento es la llave para resolver muchos problemas. Es posible que el comercio de petróleo se haga menos volátil debido a los efectos asociados al almacenamiento; pero lo que es seguro es que la eficiencia energética de los usos de ese petróleo será más elevada. La Tesis partía de ciertas amenazas sobre el futuro del petróleo, pero tras el análisis realizado se puede vislumbrar un futuro prometedor en la fusión de políticas medioambientales coercitivas y las nuevas tecnologías emergentes del actual portafolio de oportunidades técnicas. ABSTRACT This Thesis rises from the force and the credibility of a number of warning signs linked to policies aimed at reducing the role of petroleum in the energy industry due to economical, geopolitical and environmental drives. As such Thesis, it grew up based on aggregating new but essentials elements into the petroleum sector. This is the case of “enabling technologies” that have a direct impact on the petroleum industry (such as fracking), or an indirect but deep impact (such as the full electrical vehicle). The Thesis was defined and structured in such a way that could convey useful conclusions for energy corporations through a series of inquiries and treatises. In addition to this, the Thesis also aims at understating la evolution of the energy industry and its capabilities both technical and economical, towards delivering the services required by end users. Within the analytical task performed in the Thesis, new terms were coined. They depict concepts that aid at explaining the facts of the energy industry. This is the case for “Investment burden”, it weights the specific capital investment (€/W) required to build a facility with the time that takes to build it, as well as other tangible risks as those posed by regulation. In addition to this, the Thesis puts forward an application designed for reviewing and predicting: the so called “Market integrated energy efficiency”, especially well-suited for dichotomies, very appealing for the case of the thermal car versus the electric car. The aim is to optimize energy related activity; or even the overall productivity of the system. The innovations proposed in this Thesis can be classified in two tiers. Tier one, within the energy sector; and tier two, related to Energy Corporation in general, but with oil and gas corporations at heart. From a corporate level, the adaptation to new energy era will be linked with the corporation capability to develop or acquire those technologies that will yield to retaining or enhancing market share. The Thesis highlights three options for corporate evolution: - diversification within Energy - geographic displacement - profiting new technologies relevant to important niches of work for the future, as: o Upstream: enhanced oil recovery using renewable energy sources (for upstream companies in the petroleum business) o Downstream: additives for reducing combustion emissions o Management of Change: operational energy storage Some energy policies tend to follow the zero-growth of some OECD countries, but the real thing could be very different. For instance, and according to estimates the number of vehicles in use will grow from 1 billion to more than double this figure 2035; but oil production will only grow from 95 million barrel/day to 145 (a 50% rise of versus an intensification of over a 100%). Hydrocarbon Corporation can lose the monopoly they currently hold over the supply of energy to transportation. This lose can be mitigated through an enhanced used of their capabilities and a higher degree of integration in the world of energy, exploring for synergies in those places were gaps were present. Petroleum products can be used to feed any type of thermal machine, as Brayton turbines, or steam reformers to produce H2 to be exploited in fuel cells. Storing petroleum products does not present any problem, but very many problems can be solved with them. Petroleum trading will likely be less volatile because of the smoothing effects of distributed storage, and indeed the efficiency in petroleum consumption will be much higher. The Thesis kicked off with a menace on the future of petroleum. However, at the end of the analysis, a bright future can be foreseen in the merging between highly demanding environmental policies and the relevant technologies of the currently emerging technical portfolio.