Análisis del sector y mercado gasista nacional e internacional. : el Hub ibérico y su adaptación al sistema español

Actualmente existe un gran interés orientado hacia el mercado del gas natural. Son muchas las razones por las que este combustible se posiciona como uno de los más importantes dentro del panorama energético mundial. Además de que salvaría el hueco dejado por el carbón y el petróleo, supone una alternativa mucho más limpia que se podría desarrollar aún más tanto a nivel doméstico, industrial como en el mundo de los transportes. La industria del gas natural está cambiando rápidamente fundamentalmente por la aparición del gas no convencional y sus técnicas de extracción. Por lo que se está produciendo un cambio en la economía de la producción de gas así como en la dinámica y los movimientos del GNL a lo largo de todo el planeta. El propósito de este estudio es enfocar el estado del sector y mercado del gas natural en todo el mundo y de esta forma subrayar las principales regiones que marcan la tendencia general de los precios de todo el planeta. Además, este trabajo reflejará los pronósticos esperados para los próximos años así como un resumen de las tendencias que se han seguido hasta el momento. Particularmente, se centrará la atención en el movimiento hacia los sistemas basados en forma de hub que comenzaron en EE.UU. y que llegaron a Reino Unido y al continente Europeo a principios del S.XX. Esta tendencia es la que se pretende implantar en España con el fin de conseguir una mayor competitividad, flexibilidad y liquidez en los precios y en el sistema gasista. De esta forma, poco a poco se irá construyendo la estructura hacia un Mercado Único Europeo que es el objetivo final que plantean los organismos de los estados miembros. Sin embargo, para la puesta en marcha de este nuevo modelo es necesario realizar una serie de cambios en el sistema como la modificación de la Ley de Hidrocarburos, la designación de un Operador de Mercado, elaboración de una serie de reglas para regular el mercado así como fomentar la liquidez del mercado. Cuando tenga lugar el cambio regulatorio, la liquidez del sistema español incrementará y se dará la oportunidad de crear nuevas formas para balancear las carteras de gas y establecer nuevas estrategias para gestionar el riesgo. No obstante, antes de que se hagan efectivos los cambios en la legislación, se implantaría uno de los modelos planteados en el “Gas Target Model”, el denominado “Modelo de Asignación de Capacidad Implícita”. La introducción de este modelo sería un primer paso para la integración de un mercado de gas sin la necesidad de afrontar un cambio legislativo, lo que serviría de VIII impulso para alcanzar el “Modelo de Área de Mercado” que sería el mejor para el sistema gasista español y se conectaría ampliamente con el resto de mercados europeos. Las conclusiones del estudio en relación a la formación del nuevo modelo en forma de hub plantean la necesidad de aprovechar al máximo la nueva situación y conseguir implantar el hub lo antes posible para poder dotar al sistema de mayor competencia y liquidez. Además, el sistema español debe aprovechar su gran capacidad y moderna infraestructura para convertir al país en la entrada de gas del suroeste de Europa ampliando así la seguridad de suministro de los países miembros. Otra conclusión que se puede extraer del informe es la necesidad de ampliar el índice de penetración del gas en España e incentivar el consumo frente a otros combustibles fósiles como el carbón y el petróleo. Esto situaría al gas natural como la principal energía de respaldo con respecto a las renovables y permitiría disminuir los precios del kilovatio hora del gas natural. El estudio y análisis de la dinámica que se viene dando en la industria del gas en el mundo es fundamental para poder anticiparse y planear las mejores estrategias frente a los cambios que poco a poco irán modificando el sector y el mercado gasista. ABSTRACT There is a great deal of focus on the natural gas market at the moment. Whether you view natural gas as bridging the gap between coal/oil and an altogether cleaner solution yet to be determined, or as a destination fuel which will be used not only for heating and gas fired generation but also as transportation fuel, there is no doubt that natural gas will have an increasingly important role to play in the global energy landscape. The natural gas industry is changing rapidly, as shale gas exploration changes the economics of gas production and LNG connects regions across the globe. The purpose of this study is to outline the present state of the global gas industry highlighting the differing models around the world. This study will pay particular attention to the move towards hub based pricing that has taken hold first in the US and over the past decade across the UK and Continental Europe. In the coming years the Spanish model will move towards hub based pricing. As gas market regulatory change takes hold, liquidity in the Spanish gas market will increase, bringing with it new ways to balance gas portfolios and placing an increasing focus on managing price risk. This study will in turn establish the links between the changes that have taken place in other markets as a way to better understanding how the Spanish market will evolve in the coming years.

Next Generation of Energy Residential Gateways for Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing

Predictions about electric energy needs, based on current electric energy models, forecast that the global energy consumption on Earth for 2050 will double present rates. Using distributed procedures for control and integration, the expected needs can be halved. Therefore implementation of Smart Grids is necessary. Interaction between final consumers and utilities is a key factor of future Smart Grids. This interaction is aimed to reach efficient and responsible energy consumption. Energy Residential Gateways (ERG) are new in-building devices that will govern the communication between user and utility and will control electric loads. Utilities will offer new services empowering residential customers to lower their electric bill. Some of these services are Smart Metering, Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing. This paper presents a practical development of an ERG for residential buildings.

Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Numerical methods for option pricing.

This thesis aims to introduce some fundamental concepts underlying option valuation theory including implementation of computational tools. In many cases analytical solution for option pricing does not exist, thus the following numerical methods are used: binomial trees, Monte Carlo simulations and finite difference methods. First, an algorithm based on Hull and Wilmott is written for every method. Then these algorithms are improved in different ways. For the binomial tree both speed and memory usage is significantly improved by using only one vector instead of a whole price storing matrix. Computational time in Monte Carlo simulations is reduced by implementing a parallel algorithm (in C) which is capable of improving speed by a factor which equals the number of processors used. Furthermore, MatLab code for Monte Carlo was made faster by vectorizing simulation process. Finally, obtained option values are compared to those obtained with popular finite difference methods, and it is discussed which of the algorithms is more appropriate for which purpose.

Integration of congestion pricing and intertemporal preference rate in social welfare function

Assessing social benefits in transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure social benefit using different discount rates including the inter-temporal preferences rate of users, the private investment discount rate and the inter-temporal preferences rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rate belonging to different social actors in order to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short, medium and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The method is tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid considering socio- economic efficiency and environmental criteria. Based on the modified social welfare function (WF), the effects on the measure of social benefits are estimated and compared with the classical WF results as well. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and social actors' benefits distribution in a metropolitan context. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly overtime.

Active Learning and Dynamic Pricing Policies

In this paper, we address the problem of dynamic pricing to optimize the revenue coming from the sales of a limited inventory in a finite time-horizon. A priori, the demand is assumed to be unknown. The seller must learn on the fly. We first deal with the simplest case, involving only one class of product for sale. Furthermore the general situation is considered with a finite number of product classes for sale. In particular, a case in point is the sale of tickets for events related to culture and leisure; in this case, typically the tickets are sold months before the event, thus, uncertainty over actual demand levels is a very a common occurrence. We propose a heuristic strategy of adaptive dynamic pricing, based on experience gained from the past, taking into account, for each time period, the available inventory, the time remaining to reach the horizon, and the profit made in previous periods. In the computational simulations performed, the demand is updated dynamically based on the prices being offered, as well as on the remaining time and inventory. The simulations show a significant profit over the fixed-price strategy, confirming the practical usefulness of the proposed strategy. We develop a tool allowing us to test different dynamic pricing strategies designed to fit market conditions and seller s objectives, which will facilitate data analysis and decision-making in the face of the problem of dynamic pricing.

Microstructure-based numerical modeling of the mechanical behavior of Mg alloys

Dentro de los materiales estructurales, el magnesio y sus aleaciones están siendo el foco de una de profunda investigación. Esta investigación está dirigida a comprender la relación existente entre la microestructura de las aleaciones de Mg y su comportamiento mecánico. El objetivo es optimizar las aleaciones actuales de magnesio a partir de su microestructura y diseñar nuevas aleaciones. Sin embargo, el efecto de los factores microestructurales (como la forma, el tamaño, la orientación de los precipitados y la morfología de los granos) en el comportamiento mecánico de estas aleaciones está todavía por descubrir. Para conocer mejor de la relación entre la microestructura y el comportamiento mecánico, es necesaria la combinación de técnicas avanzadas de caracterización experimental como de simulación numérica, a diferentes longitudes de escala. En lo que respecta a las técnicas de simulación numérica, la homogeneización policristalina es una herramienta muy útil para predecir la respuesta macroscópica a partir de la microestructura de un policristal (caracterizada por el tamaño, la forma y la distribución de orientaciones de los granos) y el comportamiento del monocristal. La descripción de la microestructura se lleva a cabo mediante modernas técnicas de caracterización (difracción de rayos X, difracción de electrones retrodispersados, así como con microscopia óptica y electrónica). Sin embargo, el comportamiento del cristal sigue siendo difícil de medir, especialmente en aleaciones de Mg, donde es muy complicado conocer el valor de los parámetros que controlan el comportamiento mecánico de los diferentes modos de deslizamiento y maclado. En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una estrategia de homogeneización computacional para predecir el comportamiento de aleaciones de magnesio. El comportamiento de los policristales ha sido obtenido mediante la simulación por elementos finitos de un volumen representativo (RVE) de la microestructura, considerando la distribución real de formas y orientaciones de los granos. El comportamiento del cristal se ha simulado mediante un modelo de plasticidad cristalina que tiene en cuenta los diferentes mecanismos físicos de deformación, como el deslizamiento y el maclado. Finalmente, la obtención de los parámetros que controlan el comportamiento del cristal (tensiones críticas resueltas (CRSS) así como las tasas de endurecimiento para todos los modos de maclado y deslizamiento) se ha resuelto mediante la implementación de una metodología de optimización inversa, una de las principales aportaciones originales de este trabajo. La metodología inversa pretende, por medio del algoritmo de optimización de Levenberg-Marquardt, obtener el conjunto de parámetros que definen el comportamiento del monocristal y que mejor ajustan a un conjunto de ensayos macroscópicos independientes. Además de la implementación de la técnica, se han estudiado tanto la objetividad del metodología como la unicidad de la solución en función de la información experimental. La estrategia de optimización inversa se usó inicialmente para obtener el comportamiento cristalino de la aleación AZ31 de Mg, obtenida por laminado. Esta aleación tiene una marcada textura basal y una gran anisotropía plástica. El comportamiento de cada grano incluyó cuatro mecanismos de deformación diferentes: deslizamiento en los planos basal, prismático, piramidal hc+ai, junto con el maclado en tracción. La validez de los parámetros resultantes se validó mediante la capacidad del modelo policristalino para predecir ensayos macroscópicos independientes en diferentes direcciones. En segundo lugar se estudió mediante la misma estrategia, la influencia del contenido de Neodimio (Nd) en las propiedades de una aleación de Mg-Mn-Nd, obtenida por extrusión. Se encontró que la adición de Nd produce una progresiva isotropización del comportamiento macroscópico. El modelo mostró que este incremento de la isotropía macroscópica era debido tanto a la aleatoriedad de la textura inicial como al incremento de la isotropía del comportamiento del cristal, con valores similares de las CRSSs de los diferentes modos de deformación. Finalmente, el modelo se empleó para analizar el efecto de la temperatura en el comportamiento del cristal de la aleación de Mg-Mn-Nd. La introducción en el modelo de los efectos non-Schmid sobre el modo de deslizamiento piramidal hc+ai permitió capturar el comportamiento mecánico a temperaturas superiores a 150_C. Esta es la primera vez, de acuerdo con el conocimiento del autor, que los efectos non-Schmid han sido observados en una aleación de Magnesio. The study of Magnesium and its alloys is a hot research topic in structural materials. In particular, special attention is being paid in understanding the relationship between microstructure and mechanical behavior in order to optimize the current alloy microstructures and guide the design of new alloys. However, the particular effect of several microstructural factors (precipitate shape, size and orientation, grain morphology distribution, etc.) in the mechanical performance of a Mg alloy is still under study. The combination of advanced characterization techniques and modeling at several length scales is necessary to improve the understanding of the relation microstructure and mechanical behavior. Respect to the simulation techniques, polycrystalline homogenization is a very useful tool to predict the macroscopic response from polycrystalline microstructure (grain size, shape and orientation distributions) and crystal behavior. The microstructure description is fully covered with modern characterization techniques (X-ray diffraction, EBSD, optical and electronic microscopy). However, the mechanical behaviour of single crystals is not well-known, especially in Mg alloys where the correct parameterization of the mechanical behavior of the different slip/twin modes is a very difficult task. A computational homogenization framework for predicting the behavior of Magnesium alloys has been developed in this thesis. The polycrystalline behavior was obtained by means of the finite element simulation of a representative volume element (RVE) of the microstructure including the actual grain shape and orientation distributions. The crystal behavior for the grains was accounted for a crystal plasticity model which took into account the physical deformation mechanisms, e.g. slip and twinning. Finally, the problem of the parametrization of the crystal behavior (critical resolved shear stresses (CRSS) and strain hardening rates of all the slip and twinning modes) was obtained by the development of an inverse optimization methodology, one of the main original contributions of this thesis. The inverse methodology aims at finding, by means of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm, the set of parameters defining crystal behavior that best fit a set of independent macroscopic tests. The objectivity of the method and the uniqueness of solution as function of the input information has been numerically studied. The inverse optimization strategy was first used to obtain the crystal behavior of a rolled polycrystalline AZ31 Mg alloy that showed a marked basal texture and a strong plastic anisotropy. Four different deformation mechanisms: basal, prismatic and pyramidal hc+ai slip, together with tensile twinning were included to characterize the single crystal behavior. The validity of the resulting parameters was proved by the ability of the polycrystalline model to predict independent macroscopic tests on different directions. Secondly, the influence of Neodymium (Nd) content on an extruded polycrystalline Mg-Mn-Nd alloy was studied using the same homogenization and optimization framework. The effect of Nd addition was a progressive isotropization of the macroscopic behavior. The model showed that this increase in the macroscopic isotropy was due to a randomization of the initial texture and also to an increase of the crystal behavior isotropy (similar values of the CRSSs of the different modes). Finally, the model was used to analyze the effect of temperature on the crystal behaviour of a Mg-Mn-Nd alloy. The introduction in the model of non-Schmid effects on the pyramidal hc+ai slip allowed to capture the inverse strength differential that appeared, between the tension and compression, above 150_C. This is the first time, to the author's knowledge, that non-Schmid effects have been reported for Mg alloys.

Evaluating the equity effects of road-pricing in the European urban context - The Madrid Metropolitan Area

The paper identifies the potential spatial and social impacts of a proposed road-pricing scheme for different social groups in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). We appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure ‘before’ and ‘after’ implementation of the scheme. The appraisal framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviours (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our specific study finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. The focus groups confirmed that low income drivers in the south part of the MMA would reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to public transport, spend double the time travelling or stay at home. More generally, our research finds that European transport planners are still a long way from recognising the social equity implications of their policy decisions and that more thorough social appraisals are needed to avoid the social exclusion of low income populations when road tolling is proposed.

Evaluating the spatial and social equity effects of road pricing in the European urban context: the Madrid Metropolitan Area.

The paper explores the spatial and social impacts arising from implementation of a road-pricing scheme in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). Our analytical focus is on understanding the effects of the scheme on the transport accessibility of different social groups within the MMA. We define an evaluation framework to appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure "before" and "after" the implementation of the scheme. The framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative data from focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviors (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility, mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our key finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. Consequently lower income people reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to the public transport, spend double the time for their commuter trips or stay at home. The results of our research could be applicable more widely for anyone wishing to better understand the important relationship between increased transport cost and social equity, especially where there is an intention to introduce similar road-pricing schemes within the urban context.