16 resultados para management earnings forecast, information disclosure, Australia, continuous disclosure, litigation risk

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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We present here an information reconciliation method and demonstrate for the first time that it can achieve efficiencies close to 0.98. This method is based on the belief propagation decoding of non-binary LDPC codes over finite (Galois) fields. In particular, for convenience and faster decoding we only consider power-of-two Galois fields.

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In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

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Runtime management of distributed information systems is a complex and costly activity. One of the main challenges that must be addressed is obtaining a complete and updated view of all the managed runtime resources. This article presents a monitoring architecture for heterogeneous and distributed information systems. It is composed of two elements: an information model and an agent infrastructure. The model negates the complexity and variability of these systems and enables the abstraction over non-relevant details. The infrastructure uses this information model to monitor and manage the modeled environment, performing and detecting changes in execution time. The agents infrastructure is further detailed and its components and the relationships between them are explained. Moreover, the proposal is validated through a set of agents that instrument the JEE Glassfish application server, paying special attention to support distributed configuration scenarios.

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We present an evaluation of a spoken language dialogue system with a module for the management of userrelated information, stored as user preferences and privileges. The flexibility of our dialogue management approach, based on Bayesian Networks (BN), together with a contextual information module, which performs different strategies for handling such information, allows us to include user information as a new level into the Context Manager hierarchy. We propose a set of objective and subjective metrics to measure the relevance of the different contextual information sources. The analysis of our evaluation scenarios shows that the relevance of the short-term information (i.e. the system status) remains pretty stable throughout the dialogue, whereas the dialogue history and the user profile (i.e. the middle-term and the long-term information, respectively) play a complementary role, evolving their usefulness as the dialogue evolves.

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Information reconciliation is a crucial procedure in the classical post-processing of quantum key distribution (QKD). Poor reconciliation e?ciency, revealing more information than strictly needed, may compromise the maximum attainable distance, while poor performance of the algorithm limits the practical throughput in a QKD device. Historically, reconciliation has been mainly done using close to minimal information disclosure but heavily interactive procedures, like Cascade, or using less e?cient but also less interactive ?just one message is exchanged? procedures, like the ones based in low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes. The price to pay in the LDPC case is that good e?ciency is only attained for very long codes and in a very narrow range centered around the quantum bit error rate (QBER) that the code was designed to reconcile, thus forcing to have several codes if a broad range of QBER needs to be catered for. Real world implementations of these methods are thus very demanding, either on computational or communication resources or both, to the extent that the last generation of GHz clocked QKD systems are ?nding a bottleneck in the classical part. In order to produce compact, high performance and reliable QKD systems it would be highly desirable to remove these problems. Here we analyse the use of short-length LDPC codes in the information reconciliation context using a low interactivity, blind, protocol that avoids an a priori error rate estimation. We demonstrate that 2×103 bits length LDPC codes are suitable for blind reconciliation. Such codes are of high interest in practice, since they can be used for hardware implementations with very high throughput.

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Transports of radioactive wastes in Spain are becoming issues of renewed interest, due to the increased mobility of these materials which can be expected after the building and operation of the planned central repository for this country in a near future. Such types of residues will be mainly of the medium and high activity classes and have raised concerns on the safety of the operations, the radiological protection of the individuals, the compliance with the legal regulations and their environmental consequences of all kind. In this study, relevant information for the assessment of radiological risk of road transport were taken into account, as the sources and destination of the radioactive transports, the amount of traveling to be done, the preferred routes and populations affected, the characterization of the residues and containers, their corresponding testing, etc. These data were supplied by different organizations fully related with these activities, like the nuclear power stations, the companies in charge of radioactive transports, the enterprises for inspection and control of the activities, etc., as well as the government institutions which are responsible for the selection and location of the storage facility and other decisions on the nuclear policies of the country. Thus, we have developed a program for computing the data in such a form that by entering the radiation levels at one meter of the transport loads and by choosing a particular displacement, the computer application is capable to calculate the corresponding radiological effects, like the global estimated impact, its relevance to the population in general or on those people living and driving near the main road routes, the doses received by the most exposed individuals (e.g. the workers for loading or driving the vehicle), or the probability of detrimental on the human health. The results of this work could be of help for a better understanding and management of these activities and their related impacts; at the same time that the generated reports of the computer application are considered of particular interest as innovative and complementary information to the current legal documentation, which is basically required for transporting radioactive wastes in the country, according with the international safety rules (like IAEA and ADR).Though main studies are still in progress, as the definite location for the Spanish storage facility has not been decided yet, preliminary results with the existing transports of residues of medium activity indicate that the radiological impact is very low in conventional operations. Nevertheless, the management of these transports is complex and laborious, making it convenient to progress further in the analysis and quantification of this kind of events, which constitutes one of the main objectives of the present study for the radioactive road mobility in Spain.

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We present a novel approach for detecting severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) cases by introducing non-linear analysis into sustained speech characterization. The proposed scheme was designed for providing additional information into our baseline system, built on top of state-of-the-art cepstral domain modeling techniques, aiming to improve accuracy rates. This new information is lightly correlated with our previous MFCC modeling of sustained speech and uncorrelated with the information in our continuous speech modeling scheme. Tests have been performed to evaluate the improvement for our detection task, based on sustained speech as well as combined with a continuous speech classifier, resulting in a 10% relative reduction in classification for the first and a 33% relative reduction for the fused scheme. Results encourage us to consider the existence of non-linear effects on OSA patients' voices, and to think about tools which could be used to improve short-time analysis.

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At the present time almost all map libraries on the Internet are image collections generated by the digitization of early maps. This type of graphics files provides researchers with the possibility of accessing and visualizing historical cartographic information keeping in mind that this information has a degree of quality that depends upon elements such as the accuracy of the digitization process and proprietary constraints (e.g. visualization, resolution downloading options, copyright, use constraints). In most cases, access to these map libraries is useful only as a first approach and it is not possible to use those maps for scientific work due to the sparse tools available to measure, match, analyze and/or combine those resources with different kinds of cartography. This paper presents a method to enrich virtual map rooms and provide historians and other professional with a tool that let them to make the most of libraries in the digital era.

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En España, los datos catastrales de acceso público, obtenidos a través de la Sede Electrónica del Catastro (SEC), no incluyen información sobre la genealogía o las relaciones de linaje existente entre las parcelas, de forma que la gestión de la información histórica es muy limitada. Este artículo presenta un método para obtener las relaciones de linaje más frecuentes entre las parcelas (agregación y segregación) y propone un prototipo de estructura relacional para el almacenamiento y la gestión histórica de los datos catastrales de acceso público. El proceso de análisis para deducir el linaje se basa en superposiciones espacio-temporales junto con secuencias de sentencias SQL. El método proporciona un 70% de relaciones de agregación y segregación correctas; el resto presentan errores debidos, en general, a anomalías presentes en los propios datos catastrales. ABSTRACT Public cadastral data in Spain, available through the Electronic Office of Cadastre, do not include any information on the genealogy or lineage relationship among the parcels, so the management of historical information becomes very limit ed. This paper presents a method for obtaining the most common lineage relationships between plots (aggregation and segregation) and proposes a relational structure prototype for the storage and historic management of public cadastral data. The analysis process to deduce the lineage is based on spatio-temporal overlaps coupled with SQL statements sequences. This method provides a 70% of correct aggregation and segregation relationships; the wrong cases are mainly caused by errors existing in the cadastral data themselves.

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A solution for the problem of reusability of software system for batch production systems is proposed. It is based on ISA S88 standard that prescribes the abstraction of elements in the manufacturing system that is equipment, processes and procedures abstraction, required to make a product batch. An easy to apply data scheme, compatible with the standard, is developed for management of production information. In addition to flexibility provided by the S88 standard, software system reusability requires a solution supporting manufacturing equipment reconfigurability. Toward this end a coupling mechanism is developed. A software tool, including these solutions, was developed and validated at laboratory level, using product manufacturing information of an actual plant.

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LogIn Design City is a project for the revitalization of public city?s space through the involvement of individuals, collectivities and municipalities, managed by a specific team and structured upon an augmented platform. The management system permits the organization of self-managed events and actions, offering support and assistance for the implementation of these actions in the offered spots of the city. Actions can be of cultural, commercial, educational or leisure-oriented nature and depending on their purpose the spots can be offered free of charge or with fees, creating a possibility for remuneration and providing a tool for development in underprivileged zones of the city. An important aspect is the emphasis on the digital outlook of the city, which is structured as an interface that allows communication with the management system and information upon actual, past and upcoming events.

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La tesis estudia uno de los aspectos más importantes de la gestión de la sociedad de la información: conocer la manera en que una persona valora cualquier situación. Esto es importante para el individuo que realiza la valoración y para el entorno con el que se relaciona. La valoración es el resultado de la comparación: se asignan los mismos valores a alternativas similares y mayores valores a alternativas mejor consideradas en el proceso de comparación. Los patrones que guían al individuo a la hora de hacer la comparación se derivan de sus preferencias individuales (es decir, de sus opiniones). En la tesis se presentan varios procedimientos para establecer las relaciones de preferencia entre alternativas de una persona. La valoración progresa hasta obtener una representación numérica de sus preferencias. Cuando la representación de preferencias es homogénea permite, además, contrastar las preferencias personales con las del resto de evaluadores, lo que favorece la evaluación de políticas, la transferencia de información entre diferentes individuos y el diseño de la alternativa que mejor se adapte a las preferencias identificadas. Al mismo tiempo, con esta información se pueden construir comunidades de personas con los mismos sistemas de preferencias ante una cuestión concreta. La tesis muestra un caso de aplicación de esta metodología: optimización de las políticas laborales en un mercado real. Para apoyar a los demandantes de empleo (en su iniciación o reincorporación al mundo laboral o en el cambio de su actividad) es necesario conocer sus preferencias respecto a las ocupaciones que están dispuestos a desempeñar. Además, para que la intermediación laboral sea efectiva, las ocupaciones buscadas deben de ser ofrecidas por el mercado de trabajo y el demandante debe reunir las condiciones para acceder a esas ocupaciones. El siguiente desarrollo de estos modelos nos lleva a los procedimientos utilizados para transformar múltiples preferencias en una decisión agregada y que consideran tanto la opinión de cada uno de los individuos que participan en la decisión como las interacciones sociales, todo ello dirigido a generar una solución que se ajuste lo mejor posible al punto de vista de toda la población. Las decisiones con múltiples participantes inciden, principalmente, en: el aumento del alcance para incorporar a personas que tradicionalmente no han sido consideradas en las tomas de decisiones, la agregación de las preferencias de los múltiples participantes en las tomas de decisiones colectivas (mediante votación, utilizando aplicaciones desarrolladas para la Web2.0 y a través de comparaciones interpersonales de utilidad) y, finalmente, la auto-organización para permitir que interaccionen entre si los participantes en la valoración, de forma que hagan que el resultado final sea mejor que la mera agregación de opiniones individuales. La tesis analiza los sistemas de e-democracia o herramientas para su implantación que tienen más más utilización en la actualidad o son más avanzados. Están muy relacionados con la web 2.0 y su implantación está suponiendo una evolución de la democracia actual. También se estudian aplicaciones de software de Colaboración en la toma de decisiones (Collaborative decision-making (CDM)) que ayudan a dar sentido y significado a los datos. Pretenden coordinar las funciones y características necesarias para llegar a decisiones colectivas oportunas, lo que permite a todos los interesados participar en el proceso. La tesis finaliza con la presentación de un nuevo modelo o paradigma en la toma de decisiones con múltiples participantes. El desarrollo se apoya en el cálculo de las funciones de utilidad empática. Busca la colaboración entre los individuos para que la toma de decisiones sea más efectiva, además pretende aumentar el número de personas implicadas. Estudia las interacciones y la retroalimentación entre ciudadanos, ya que la influencia de unos ciudadanos en los otros es fundamental para los procesos de toma de decisiones colectivas y de e-democracia. También incluye métodos para detectar cuando se ha estancado el proceso y se debe interrumpir. Este modelo se aplica a la consulta de los ciudadanos de un municipio sobre la oportunidad de implantar carriles-bici y las características que deben tomar. Se simula la votación e interacción entre los votantes. ABSTRACT The thesis examines one of the most important aspects of the management of the information society: get to know how a person values every situation. This is important for the individual performing the assessment and for the environment with which he interacts. The assessment is a result of the comparison: identical values are allocated to similar alternatives and higher values are assigned to those alternatives that are more favorably considered in the comparison process. Patterns that guide the individual in making the comparison are derived from his individual preferences (ie, his opinions). In the thesis several procedures to establish preference relations between alternatives a person are presented. The assessment progresses to obtain a numerical representation of his preferences. When the representation of preferences is homogeneous, it also allows the personal preferences of each individual to be compared with those of other evaluators, favoring policy evaluation, the transfer of information between different individuals and design the alternative that best suits the identified preferences. At the same time, with this information you can build communities of people with similar systems of preferences referred to a particular issue. The thesis shows a case of application of this methodology: optimization of labour policies in a real market. To be able support jobseekers (in their initiation or reinstatement to employment or when changing area of professional activity) is necessary to know their preferences for jobs that he is willing to perform. In addition, for labour mediation to be effective occupations that are sought must be offered by the labour market and the applicant must meet the conditions for access to these occupations. Further development of these models leads us to the procedures used to transform multiple preferences in an aggregate decision and consider both the views of each of the individuals involved in the decision and the social interactions, all aimed at generating a solution that best fits of the point of view of the entire population. Decisions with multiple participants mainly focus on: increasing the scope to include people who traditionally have not been considered in decision making, aggregation of the preferences of multiple participants in collective decision making (by vote, using applications developed for the Web 2.0 and through interpersonal comparisons of utility) and, finally, self-organization to allow participants to interact with each other in the assessment, so that the final result is better than the mere aggregation of individual opinions. The thesis analyzes the systems of e-democracy or tools for implementation which are more popular or more advanced. They are closely related to the Web 2.0 and its implementation is bringing an evolution of the current way of understanding democracy. We have also studied Collaborative Decision-Making (CDM)) software applications in decision-making which help to give sense and meaning to the data. They intend to coordinate the functions and features needed to reach adequate collective decisions, allowing all stakeholders to participate in the process. The thesis concludes with the presentation of a new model or paradigm in decision-making with multiple participants. The development is based on the calculation of the empathic utility functions. It seeks collaboration between individuals to make decision-making more effective; it also aims to increase the number of people involved. It studies the interactions and feedback among citizens, because the influence of some citizens in the other is fundamental to the process of collective decision-making and e-democracy. It also includes methods for detecting when the process has stalled and should be discontinued. This model is applied to the consultation of the citizens of a municipality on the opportunity to introduce bike lanes and characteristics they should have. Voting and interaction among voters is simulated.

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Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

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The study addresses the need to manage the risk of the purchase price of coal in a power company by changing the management model of the purchasing department. It eliminates the risk of price reduces the cost of buying coal and optimizing the performance of all electricity generation plants belonging to the company. You get more flexibility and optionallity to gain additional benefits both economic and efficiency in the supply to our generation fleet. The tools to achieve the above purpose will be financial derivatives that will be used as elements of management and not as mere speculation in the markets.

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This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk ?OpVaR? in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of risk.