A collaborative filtering approach to mitigate the new user cold start problem.

The new user cold start issue represents a serious problem in recommender systems as it can lead to the loss of new users who decide to stop using the system due to the lack of accuracy in the recommenda- tions received in that first stage in which they have not yet cast a significant number of votes with which to feed the recommender system?s collaborative filtering core. For this reason it is particularly important to design new similarity metrics which provide greater precision in the results offered to users who have cast few votes. This paper presents a new similarity measure perfected using optimization based on neu- ral learning, which exceeds the best results obtained with current metrics. The metric has been tested on the Netflix and Movielens databases, obtaining important improvements in the measures of accuracy, precision and recall when applied to new user cold start situations. The paper includes the mathematical formalization describing how to obtain the main quality measures of a recommender system using leave- one-out cross validation.

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) for supervised classification of competence in MIS based on psychomotor skills

INTRODUCTION: Objective assessment of motor skills has become an important challenge in minimally invasive surgery (MIS) training.Currently, there is no gold standard defining and determining the residents' surgical competence.To aid in the decision process, we analyze the validity of a supervised classifier to determine the degree of MIS competence based on assessment of psychomotor skills METHODOLOGY: The ANFIS is trained to classify performance in a box trainer peg transfer task performed by two groups (expert/non expert). There were 42 participants included in the study: the non-expert group consisted of 16 medical students and 8 residents (< 10 MIS procedures performed), whereas the expert group consisted of 14 residents (> 10 MIS procedures performed) and 4 experienced surgeons. Instrument movements were captured by means of the Endoscopic Video Analysis (EVA) tracking system. Nine motion analysis parameters (MAPs) were analyzed, including time, path length, depth, average speed, average acceleration, economy of area, economy of volume, idle time and motion smoothness. Data reduction was performed by means of principal component analysis, and then used to train the ANFIS net. Performance was measured by leave one out cross validation. RESULTS: The ANFIS presented an accuracy of 80.95%, where 13 experts and 21 non-experts were correctly classified. Total root mean square error was 0.88, while the area under the classifiers' ROC curve (AUC) was measured at 0.81. DISCUSSION: We have shown the usefulness of ANFIS for classification of MIS competence in a simple box trainer exercise. The main advantage of using ANFIS resides in its continuous output, which allows fine discrimination of surgical competence. There are, however, challenges that must be taken into account when considering use of ANFIS (e.g. training time, architecture modeling). Despite this, we have shown discriminative power of ANFIS for a low-difficulty box trainer task, regardless of the individual significances between MAPs. Future studies are required to confirm the findings, inclusion of new tasks, conditions and sample population.

Analysis of spontaneous MEG activity in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease using spectral entropies and statistical complexity measures

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia. Over the last few years, a considerable effort has been devoted to exploring new biomarkers. Nevertheless, a better understanding of brain dynamics is still required to optimize therapeutic strategies. In this regard, the characterization of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial, due to the high conversion rate from MCI to AD. However, only a few studies have focused on the analysis of magnetoencephalographic (MEG) rhythms to characterize AD and MCI. In this study, we assess the ability of several parameters derived from information theory to describe spontaneous MEG activity from 36 AD patients, 18 MCI subjects and 26 controls. Three entropies (Shannon, Tsallis and Rényi entropies), one disequilibrium measure (based on Euclidean distance ED) and three statistical complexities (based on Lopez Ruiz–Mancini–Calbet complexity LMC) were used to estimate the irregularity and statistical complexity of MEG activity. Statistically significant differences between AD patients and controls were obtained with all parameters (p < 0.01). In addition, statistically significant differences between MCI subjects and controls were achieved by ED and LMC (p < 0.05). In order to assess the diagnostic ability of the parameters, a linear discriminant analysis with a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied. The accuracies reached 83.9% and 65.9% to discriminate AD and MCI subjects from controls, respectively. Our findings suggest that MCI subjects exhibit an intermediate pattern of abnormalities between normal aging and AD. Furthermore, the proposed parameters provide a new description of brain dynamics in AD and MCI.

Supervised classification of minimally invasive surgery psychomotor competence based on instruments motion analysis

Background Objective assessment of psychomotor skills has become an important challenge in the training of minimally invasive surgical (MIS) techniques. Currently, no gold standard defining surgical competence exists for classifying residents according to their surgical skills. Supervised classification has been proposed as a means for objectively establishing competence thresholds in psychomotor skills evaluation. This report presents a study comparing three classification methods for establishing their validity in a set of tasks for basic skills’ assessment. Methods Linear discriminant analysis (LDA), support vector machines (SVM), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were used. A total of 42 participants, divided into an experienced group (4 expert surgeons and 14 residents with >10 laparoscopic surgeries performed) and a nonexperienced group (16 students and 8 residents with <10 laparoscopic surgeries performed), performed three box trainer tasks validated for assessment of MIS psychomotor skills. Instrument movements were captured using the TrEndo tracking system, and nine motion analysis parameters (MAPs) were analyzed. The performance of the classifiers was measured by leave-one-out cross-validation using the scores obtained by the participants. Results The mean accuracy performances of the classifiers were 71 % (LDA), 78.2 % (SVM), and 71.7 % (ANFIS). No statistically significant differences in the performance were identified between the classifiers. Conclusions The three proposed classifiers showed good performance in the discrimination of skills, especially when information from all MAPs and tasks combined were considered. A correlation between the surgeons’ previous experience and their execution of the tasks could be ascertained from results. However, misclassifications across all the classifiers could imply the existence of other factors influencing psychomotor competence.

On-line measurement of soil properties without direct spectral response in near infrared spectral range

So far, the majority of reports on on-line measurement considered soil properties with direct spectral responses in near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). This work reports on the results of on-line measurement of soil properties with indirect spectral responses, e.g. pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), exchangeable calcium (Caex) and exchangeable magnesium (Mgex) in one field in Bedfordshire in the UK. The on-line sensor consisted of a subsoiler coupled with an AgroSpec mobile, fibre type, visible and near infrared (vis–NIR) spectrophotometer (tec5 Technology for Spectroscopy, Germany), with a measurement range 305–2200 nm to acquire soil spectra in diffuse reflectance mode. General calibration models for the studied soil properties were developed with a partial least squares regression (PLSR) with one-leave-out cross validation, using spectra measured under non-mobile laboratory conditions of 160 soil samples collected from different fields in four farms in Europe, namely, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherland and UK. A group of 25 samples independent from the calibration set was used as independent validation set. Higher accuracy was obtained for laboratory scanning as compared to on-line scanning of the 25 independent samples. The prediction accuracy for the laboratory and on-line measurements was classified as excellent/very good for pH (RPD = 2.69 and 2.14 and r2 = 0.86 and 0.78, respectively), and moderately good for CEC (RPD = 1.77 and 1.61 and r2 = 0.68 and 0.62, respectively) and Mgex (RPD = 1.72 and 1.49 and r2 = 0.66 and 0.67, respectively). For Caex, very good accuracy was calculated for laboratory method (RPD = 2.19 and r2 = 0.86), as compared to the poor accuracy reported for the on-line method (RPD = 1.30 and r2 = 0.61). The ability of collecting large number of data points per field area (about 12,800 point per 21 ha) and the simultaneous analysis of several soil properties without direct spectral response in the NIR range at relatively high operational speed and appreciable accuracy, encourage the recommendation of the on-line measurement system for site specific fertilisation.

Automatic segmentation of abdominal aortic aneurysm from medical images based on active shape models and texture models

A semi-automatic segmentation algorithm for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), and based on Active Shape Models (ASM) and texture models, is presented in this work. The texture information is provided by a set of four 3D magnetic resonance (MR) images, composed of axial slices of the abdomen, where lumen, wall and intraluminal thrombus (ILT) are visible. Due to the reduced number of images in the MRI training set, an ASM and a custom texture model based on border intensity statistics are constructed. For the same reason the shape is characterized from 35-computed tomography angiography (CTA) images set so the shape variations are better represented. For the evaluation, leave-one-out experiments have been held over the four MRI set.

Experimental studies on transitional separated boundary layers

Separated transitional boundary layers appear on key aeronautical processes such as the flow around wings or turbomachinery blades. The aim of this thesis is the study of these flows in representative scenarios of technological applications, gaining knowledge about phenomenology and physical processes that occur there and, developing a simple model for scaling them. To achieve this goal, experimental measurements have been carried out in a low speed facility, ensuring the flow homogeneity and a low disturbances level such that unwanted transitional mechanisms are avoided. The studied boundary layers have been developed on a flat plate, by imposing a pressure gradient by means of contoured walls. They generate an initial acceleration region followed by a deceleration zone. The initial region is designed to obtain at the beginning of the deceleration the Blasius profile, characterized by its momentum thickness, and an edge boundary layer velocity, defining the problem characteristic velocity. The deceleration region is designed to obtain a linear evolution of the edge velocity, thereby defining the characteristic length of the problem. Several experimental techniques, both intrusive (hot wire anemometry, total pressure probes) as nonintrusive (PIV and LDV anemometry, high-speed filming), have been used in order to take advantage of each of them and allow cross-validation of the results. Once the boundary layer at the deceleration beginning has been characterized, ensuring the desired integral parameters and level of disturbance, the evolution of the laminar boundary layer up to the point of separation is studied. It has been compared with integral methods, and numerical simulations. In view of the results a new model for this evolution is proposed. Downstream from the separation, the flow near to the wall is configured as a shear layer that encloses low momentum recirculating fluid. The region where the shear layer remains laminar tends to be positioned to compensate the adverse pressure gradient associated with the imposed deceleration. Under these conditions, the momentum thickness remains almost constant. This laminar shear layer region extends up to where transitional phenomena appear, extension that scales with the momentum thickness at separation. These transitional phenomena are of inviscid type, similar to those found in free shear layers. The transitional region analysis begins with a study of the disturbances evolution in the linear growth region and the comparison of experimental results with a numerical model based on Linear Stability Theory for parallel flows and with data from other authors. The results’ coalescence for both the disturbances growth and the excited frequencies is stated. For the transition final stages the vorticity concentration into vortex blobs is found, analogously to what happens in free shear layers. Unlike these, the presence of the wall and the pressure gradient make the large scale structures to move towards the wall and quickly disappear under certain circumstances. In these cases, the recirculating flow is confined into a closed region saying the bubble is closed or the boundary layer reattaches. From the reattachment point, the fluid shows a configuration in the vicinity of the wall traditionally considered as turbulent. It has been observed that existing integral methods for turbulent boundary layers do not fit well to the experimental results, due to these methods being valid only for fully developed turbulent flow. Nevertheless, it has been found that downstream from the reattachment point the velocity profiles are self-similar, and a model has been proposed for the evolution of the integral parameters of the boundary layer in this region. Finally, the phenomenon known as bubble burst is analyzed. It has been checked the validity of existing models in literature and a new one is proposed. This phenomenon is blamed to the inability of the large scale structures formed after the transition to overcome with the adverse pressure gradient, move towards the wall and close the bubble. El estudio de capas límites transicionales con separación es de gran relevancia en distintas aplicaciones tecnológicas. Particularmente, en tecnología aeronáutica, aparecen en procesos claves, tales como el flujo alrededor de alas o álabes de turbomaquinaria. El objetivo de esta tesis es el estudio de estos flujos en situaciones representativas de las aplicaciones tecnológicas, ganando por un lado conocimiento sobre la fenomenología y los procesos físicos que aparecen y, por otra parte, desarrollando un modelo sencillo para el escalado de los mismos. Para conseguir este objetivo se han realizado ensayos en una instalación experimental de baja velocidad específicamente diseñada para asegurar un flujo homogéneo y con bajo nivel de perturbaciones, de modo que se evita el disparo de mecanismos transicionales no deseados. La capa límite bajo estudio se ha desarrollado sobre una placa plana, imponiendo un gradiente de presión a la misma por medio de paredes de geometría especificada. éstas generan una región inicial de aceleración seguida de una zona de deceleración. La región inicial se diseña para tener en al inicio de la deceleración un perfil de capa límite de Blasius, caracterizado por su espesor de cantidad de movimiento, y una cierta velocidad externa a la capa límite que se considera la velocidad característica del problema. La región de deceleración está concebida para que la variación de la velocidad externa a la capa límite sea lineal, definiendo de esta forma una longitud característica del problema. Los ensayos se han realizado explotando varias técnicas experimentales, tanto intrusivas (anemometría de hilo caliente, sondas de presión total) como no intrusivas (anemometrías láser y PIV, filmación de alta velocidad), de cara a aprovechar las ventajas de cada una de ellas y permitir validación cruzada de resultados entre las mismas. Caracterizada la capa límite al comienzo de la deceleración, y garantizados los parámetros integrales y niveles de perturbación deseados se procede al estudio de la zona de deceleración. Se presenta en la tesis un análisis de la evolución de la capa límite laminar desde el inicio de la misma hasta el punto de separación, comparando con métodos integrales, simulaciones numéricas, y proponiendo un nuevo modelo para esta evolución. Aguas abajo de la separación, el flujo en las proximidades de la pared se configura como una capa de cortadura que encierra una región de fluido recirculatorio de baja cantidad de movimiento. Se ha caracterizado la región en que dicha capa de cortadura permanece laminar, encontrando que se posiciona de modo que compensa el gradiente adverso de presión asociado a la deceleración de la corriente. En estas condiciones, el espesor de cantidad de movimiento permanece prácticamente constante y esta capa de cortadura laminar se extiende hasta que los fenómenos transicionales aparecen. Estos fenómenos son de tipo no viscoso, similares a los que aparecen en una capa de cortadura libre. El análisis de la región transicional comienza con un estudio de la evolución de las vii viii RESUMEN perturbaciones en la zona de crecimiento lineal de las mismas y la comparación de los resultados experimentales con un modelo numérico y con datos de otros autores. La coalescencia de los resultados tanto para el crecimiento de las perturbaciones como para las frecuencias excitadas queda demostrada. Para los estadios finales de la transición se observa la concentración de la vorticidad en torbellinos, de modo análogo a lo que ocurre en capas de cortadura libres. A diferencia de estas, la presencia de la pared y del gradiente de presión hace que, bajo ciertas condiciones, la gran escala se desplace hacia la pared y desaparezca rápidamente. En este caso el flujo recirculatorio queda confinado en una región cerrada y se habla de cierre de la burbuja o readherencia de la capa límite. A partir del punto de readherencia se tiene una configuración fluida en las proximidades de la pared que tradicionalmente se ha considerado turbulenta. Se ha observado que los métodos integrales existentes para capas límites turbulentas no ajustan bien a las medidas experimentales realizadas, hecho imputable a que no se obtiene en dicha región un flujo turbulento plenamente desarrollado. Se ha encontrado, sin embargo, que pasado el punto de readherencia los perfiles de velocidad próximos a la pared son autosemejantes entre sí y se ha propuesto un modelo para la evolución de los parámetros integrales de la capa límite en esta región. Finalmente, el fenómeno conocido como “estallido” de la burbuja se ha analizado. Se ha comprobado la validez de los modelos existentes en la literatura y se propone uno nuevo. Este fenómeno se achaca a la incapacidad de la gran estructura formada tras la transición para vencer el gradiente adverso de presión, desplazarse hacia la pared y cerrar la burbuja.

Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: An application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39)

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson’s patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson’s disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables.

Data mining applied to the cognitive rehabilitation of patients with acquired brain injury

Acquired brain injury (ABI) is one of the leading causes of death and disability in the world and is associated with high health care costs as a result of the acute treatment and long term rehabilitation involved. Different algorithms and methods have been proposed to predict the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs. In general, research has focused on predicting the overall improvement of patients with ABI. The purpose of this study is the novel application of data mining (DM) techniques to predict the outcomes of cognitive rehabilitation in patients with ABI. We generate three predictive models that allow us to obtain new knowledge to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of the cognitive rehabilitation process. Decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and general regression neural network (GRNN) have been used to construct the prediction models. 10-fold cross validation was carried out in order to test the algorithms, using the Institut Guttmann Neurorehabilitation Hospital (IG) patients database. Performance of the models was tested through specificity, sensitivity and accuracy analysis and confusion matrix analysis. The experimental results obtained by DT are clearly superior with a prediction average accuracy of 90.38%, while MLP and GRRN obtained a 78.7% and 75.96%, respectively. This study allows to increase the knowledge about the contributing factors of an ABI patient recovery and to estimate treatment efficacy in individual patients.

Statistical Machine Learning for Automatic Assessment of Physical Activity Intensity Using Multi-axial Accelerometry and Heart Rate

This work explores the automatic recognition of physical activity intensity patterns from multi-axial accelerometry and heart rate signals. Data collection was carried out in free-living conditions and in three controlled gymnasium circuits, for a total amount of 179.80 h of data divided into: sedentary situations (65.5%), light-to-moderate activity (17.6%) and vigorous exercise (16.9%). The proposed machine learning algorithms comprise the following steps: time-domain feature definition, standardization and PCA projection, unsupervised clustering (by k-means and GMM) and a HMM to account for long-term temporal trends. Performance was evaluated by 30 runs of a 10-fold cross-validation. Both k-means and GMM-based approaches yielded high overall accuracy (86.97% and 85.03%, respectively) and, given the imbalance of the dataset, meritorious F-measures (up to 77.88%) for non-sedentary cases. Classification errors tended to be concentrated around transients, what constrains their practical impact. Hence, we consider our proposal to be suitable for 24 h-based monitoring of physical activity in ambulatory scenarios and a first step towards intensity-specific energy expenditure estimators

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Predicting EQ-5D from the Parkinson's disease questionnaire PDQ-8 using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

The impact of the Parkinson's disease and its treatment on the patients' health-related quality of life can be estimated either by means of generic measures such as the european quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) or specific measures such as the 8-item Parkinson's disease questionnaire (PDQ-8). In clinical studies, PDQ-8 could be used in detriment of EQ-5D due to the lack of resources, time or clinical interest in generic measures. Nevertheless, PDQ-8 cannot be applied in cost-effectiveness analyses which require generic measures and quantitative utility scores, such as EQ-5D. To deal with this problem, a commonly used solution is the prediction of EQ-5D from PDQ-8. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic method to predict EQ-5D from PDQ-8 using multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers. Our approach is evaluated using five-fold cross-validation experiments carried out on a Parkinson's data set containing 488 patients, and is compared with two additional Bayesian network-based approaches, two commonly used mapping methods namely, ordinary least squares and censored least absolute deviations, and a deterministic model. Experimental results are promising in terms of predictive performance as well as the identification of dependence relationships among EQ-5D and PDQ-8 items that the mapping approaches are unable to detect

System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.

Inteligencia artificial para la predicción y control del acabado superficial en procesos de fresado a alta velocidad

El objetivo principal de esta tesis doctoral es profundizar en el análisis y diseño de un sistema inteligente para la predicción y control del acabado superficial en un proceso de fresado a alta velocidad, basado fundamentalmente en clasificadores Bayesianos, con el prop´osito de desarrollar una metodolog´ıa que facilite el diseño de este tipo de sistemas. El sistema, cuyo propósito es posibilitar la predicción y control de la rugosidad superficial, se compone de un modelo aprendido a partir de datos experimentales con redes Bayesianas, que ayudar´a a comprender los procesos dinámicos involucrados en el mecanizado y las interacciones entre las variables relevantes. Dado que las redes neuronales artificiales son modelos ampliamente utilizados en procesos de corte de materiales, también se incluye un modelo para fresado usándolas, donde se introdujo la geometría y la dureza del material como variables novedosas hasta ahora no estudiadas en este contexto. Por lo tanto, una importante contribución en esta tesis son estos dos modelos para la predicción de la rugosidad superficial, que se comparan con respecto a diferentes aspectos: la influencia de las nuevas variables, los indicadores de evaluación del desempeño, interpretabilidad. Uno de los principales problemas en la modelización con clasificadores Bayesianos es la comprensión de las enormes tablas de probabilidad a posteriori producidas. Introducimos un m´etodo de explicación que genera un conjunto de reglas obtenidas de árboles de decisión. Estos árboles son inducidos a partir de un conjunto de datos simulados generados de las probabilidades a posteriori de la variable clase, calculadas con la red Bayesiana aprendida a partir de un conjunto de datos de entrenamiento. Por último, contribuimos en el campo multiobjetivo en el caso de que algunos de los objetivos no se puedan cuantificar en números reales, sino como funciones en intervalo de valores. Esto ocurre a menudo en aplicaciones de aprendizaje automático, especialmente las basadas en clasificación supervisada. En concreto, se extienden las ideas de dominancia y frontera de Pareto a esta situación. Su aplicación a los estudios de predicción de la rugosidad superficial en el caso de maximizar al mismo tiempo la sensibilidad y la especificidad del clasificador inducido de la red Bayesiana, y no solo maximizar la tasa de clasificación correcta. Los intervalos de estos dos objetivos provienen de un m´etodo de estimación honesta de ambos objetivos, como e.g. validación cruzada en k rodajas o bootstrap.---ABSTRACT---The main objective of this PhD Thesis is to go more deeply into the analysis and design of an intelligent system for surface roughness prediction and control in the end-milling machining process, based fundamentally on Bayesian network classifiers, with the aim of developing a methodology that makes easier the design of this type of systems. The system, whose purpose is to make possible the surface roughness prediction and control, consists of a model learnt from experimental data with the aid of Bayesian networks, that will help to understand the dynamic processes involved in the machining and the interactions among the relevant variables. Since artificial neural networks are models widely used in material cutting proceses, we include also an end-milling model using them, where the geometry and hardness of the piecework are introduced as novel variables not studied so far within this context. Thus, an important contribution in this thesis is these two models for surface roughness prediction, that are then compared with respecto to different aspects: influence of the new variables, performance evaluation metrics, interpretability. One of the main problems with Bayesian classifier-based modelling is the understanding of the enormous posterior probabilitiy tables produced. We introduce an explanation method that generates a set of rules obtained from decision trees. Such trees are induced from a simulated data set generated from the posterior probabilities of the class variable, calculated with the Bayesian network learned from a training data set. Finally, we contribute in the multi-objective field in the case that some of the objectives cannot be quantified as real numbers but as interval-valued functions. This often occurs in machine learning applications, especially those based on supervised classification. Specifically, the dominance and Pareto front ideas are extended to this setting. Its application to the surface roughness prediction studies the case of maximizing simultaneously the sensitivity and specificity of the induced Bayesian network classifier, rather than only maximizing the correct classification rate. Intervals in these two objectives come from a honest estimation method of both objectives, like e.g. k-fold cross-validation or bootstrap.

Energy/power consumption model for an embedded processor board

This dissertation, whose research has been conducted at the Group of Electronic and Microelectronic Design (GDEM) within the framework of the project Power Consumption Control in Multimedia Terminals (PCCMUTE), focuses on the development of an energy estimation model for the battery-powered embedded processor board. The main objectives and contributions of the work are summarized as follows: A model is proposed to obtain the accurate energy estimation results based on the linear correlation between the performance monitoring counters (PMCs) and energy consumption. the uniqueness of the appropriate PMCs for each different system, the modeling methodology is improved to obtain stable accuracies with slight variations among multiple scenarios and to be repeatable in other systems. It includes two steps: the former, the PMC-filter, to identify the most proper set among the available PMCs of a system and the latter, the k-fold cross validation method, to avoid the bias during the model training stage. The methodology is implemented on a commercial embedded board running the 2.6.34 Linux kernel and the PAPI, a cross-platform interface to configure and access PMCs. The results show that the methodology is able to keep a good stability in different scenarios and provide robust estimation results with the average relative error being less than 5%. Este trabajo fin de máster, cuya investigación se ha desarrollado en el Grupo de Diseño Electrónico y Microelectrónico (GDEM) en el marco del proyecto PccMuTe, se centra en el desarrollo de un modelo de estimación de energía para un sistema empotrado alimentado por batería. Los objetivos principales y las contribuciones de esta tesis se resumen como sigue: Se propone un modelo para obtener estimaciones precisas del consumo de energía de un sistema empotrado. El modelo se basa en la correlación lineal entre los valores de los contadores de prestaciones y el consumo de energía. Considerando la particularidad de los contadores de prestaciones en cada sistema, la metodología de modelado se ha mejorado para obtener precisiones estables, con ligeras variaciones entre escenarios múltiples y para replicar los resultados en diferentes sistemas. La metodología incluye dos etapas: la primera, filtrado-PMC, que consiste en identificar el conjunto más apropiado de contadores de prestaciones de entre los disponibles en un sistema y la segunda, el método de validación cruzada de K iteraciones, cuyo fin es evitar los sesgos durante la fase de entrenamiento. La metodología se implementa en un sistema empotrado que ejecuta el kernel 2.6.34 de Linux y PAPI, un interfaz multiplataforma para configurar y acceder a los contadores. Los resultados muestran que esta metodología consigue una buena estabilidad en diferentes escenarios y proporciona unos resultados robustos de estimación con un error medio relativo inferior al 5%.