12 resultados para large sample distributions
em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Resumo:
El estudio de la fiabilidad de componentes y sistemas tiene gran importancia en diversos campos de la ingenieria, y muy concretamente en el de la informatica. Al analizar la duracion de los elementos de la muestra hay que tener en cuenta los elementos que no fallan en el tiempo que dure el experimento, o bien los que fallen por causas distintas a la que es objeto de estudio. Por ello surgen nuevos tipos de muestreo que contemplan estos casos. El mas general de ellos, el muestreo censurado, es el que consideramos en nuestro trabajo. En este muestreo tanto el tiempo hasta que falla el componente como el tiempo de censura son variables aleatorias. Con la hipotesis de que ambos tiempos se distribuyen exponencialmente, el profesor Hurt estudio el comportamiento asintotico del estimador de maxima verosimilitud de la funcion de fiabilidad. En principio parece interesante utilizar metodos Bayesianos en el estudio de la fiabilidad porque incorporan al analisis la informacion a priori de la que se dispone normalmente en problemas reales. Por ello hemos considerado dos estimadores Bayesianos de la fiabilidad de una distribucion exponencial que son la media y la moda de la distribucion a posteriori. Hemos calculado la expansion asint6tica de la media, varianza y error cuadratico medio de ambos estimadores cuando la distribuci6n de censura es exponencial. Hemos obtenido tambien la distribucion asintotica de los estimadores para el caso m3s general de que la distribucion de censura sea de Weibull. Dos tipos de intervalos de confianza para muestras grandes se han propuesto para cada estimador. Los resultados se han comparado con los del estimador de maxima verosimilitud, y con los de dos estimadores no parametricos: limite producto y Bayesiano, resultando un comportamiento superior por parte de uno de nuestros estimadores. Finalmente nemos comprobado mediante simulacion que nuestros estimadores son robustos frente a la supuesta distribuci6n de censura, y que uno de los intervalos de confianza propuestos es valido con muestras pequenas. Este estudio ha servido tambien para confirmar el mejor comportamiento de uno de nuestros estimadores. SETTING OUT AND SUMMARY OF THE THESIS When we study the lifetime of components it's necessary to take into account the elements that don't fail during the experiment, or those that fail by reasons which are desirable to exclude from consideration. The model of random censorship is very usefull for analysing these data. In this model the time to failure and the time censor are random variables. We obtain two Bayes estimators of the reliability function of an exponential distribution based on randomly censored data. We have calculated the asymptotic expansion of the mean, variance and mean square error of both estimators, when the censor's distribution is exponential. We have obtained also the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the more general case of censor's Weibull distribution. Two large-sample confidence bands have been proposed for each estimator. The results have been compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator, and with those of two non parametric estimators: Product-limit and Bayesian. One of our estimators has the best behaviour. Finally we have shown by simulation, that our estimators are robust against the assumed censor's distribution, and that one of our intervals does well in small sample situation.
Resumo:
Developing countries are experiencing unprecedented levels of economic growth. As a result, they will be responsible for most of the future growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Curbing GHG emissions in developing countries has become one of the cornerstones of a future international agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, setting caps for developing countries’ GHG emissions has encountered strong resistance in the current round of negotiations. Continued economic growth that allows poverty eradication is still the main priority for most developing countries, and caps are perceived as a constraint to future growth prospects. The development, transfer and use of low-carbon technologies have more positive connotations, and are seen as the potential path towards low-carbon development. So far, the success of the UNFCCC process in improving the levels of technology transfer (TT) to developing countries has been limited. This thesis analyses the causes for such limited success and seeks to improve on the understanding about what constitutes TT in the field of climate change, establish the factors that enable them in developing countries and determine which policies could be implemented to reinforce these factors. Despite the wide recognition of the importance of technology and knowledge transfer to developing countries in the climate change mitigation policy agenda, this issue has not received sufficient attention in academic research. Current definitions of climate change TT barely take into account the perspective of actors involved in actual climate change TT activities, while respective measurements do not bear in mind the diversity of channels through which these happen and the outputs and effects that they convey. Furthermore, the enabling factors for TT in non-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) developing countries have been seldom investigated, and policy recommendations to improve the level and quality of TTs to developing countries have not been adapted to the specific needs of highly heterogeneous countries, commonly denominated as “developing countries”. This thesis contributes to enriching the climate change TT debate from the perspective of a smaller emerging economy (Chile) and by undertaking a quantitative analysis of enabling factors for TT in a large sample of developing countries. Two methodological approaches are used to study climate change TT: comparative case study analysis and quantitative analysis. Comparative case studies analyse TT processes in ten cases based in Chile, all of which share the same economic, technological and policy frameworks, thus enabling us to draw conclusions on the enabling factors and obstacles operating in TT processes. The quantitative analysis uses three methodologies – principal component analysis, multiple regression analysis and cluster analysis – to assess the performance of developing countries in a number of enabling factors and the relationship between these factors and indicators of TT, as well as to create groups of developing countries with similar performances. The findings of this thesis are structured to provide responses to four main research questions: What constitutes technology transfer and how does it happen? Is it possible to measure technology transfer, and what are the main challenges in doing so? Which factors enable climate change technology transfer to developing countries? And how do different developing countries perform in these enabling factors, and how can differentiated policy priorities be defined accordingly? vi Resumen Los paises en desarrollo estan experimentando niveles de crecimiento economico sin precedentes. Como consecuencia, se espera que sean responsables de la mayor parte del futuro crecimiento global en demanda energetica y emisiones de Gases de Efecto de Invernadero (GEI). Reducir las emisiones de GEI en los paises en desarrollo es por tanto uno de los pilares de un futuro acuerdo internacional en el marco de la Convencion Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climatico (UNFCCC). La posibilidad de compromisos vinculantes de reduccion de emisiones de GEI ha sido rechazada por los paises en desarrollo, que perciben estos limites como frenos a su desarrollo economico y a su prioridad principal de erradicacion de la pobreza. El desarrollo, transferencia y uso de tecnologias bajas en carbono tiene connotaciones mas positivas y se percibe como la via hacia un crecimiento bajo en carbono. Hasta el momento, la UNFCCC ha tenido un exito limitado en la promocion de transferencias de tecnologia (TT) a paises en desarrollo. Esta tesis analiza las causas de este resultado y busca mejorar la comprension sobre que constituye transferencia de tecnologia en el area de cambio climatico, cuales son los factores que la facilitan en paises en desarrollo y que politicas podrian implementarse para reforzar dichos factores. A pesar del extendido reconocimiento sobre la importancia de la transferencia de tecnologia a paises en desarrollo en la agenda politica de cambio climatico, esta cuestion no ha sido suficientemente atendida por la investigacion existente. Las definiciones actuales de transferencia de tecnologia relacionada con la mitigacion del cambio climatico no tienen en cuenta la diversidad de canales por las que se manifiestan o los efectos que consiguen. Los factores facilitadores de TT en paises en desarrollo no BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) apenas han sido investigados, y las recomendaciones politicas para aumentar el nivel y la calidad de la TT no se han adaptado a las necesidades especificas de paises muy heterogeneos aglutinados bajo el denominado grupo de "paises en desarrollo". Esta tesis contribuye a enriquecer el debate sobre la TT de cambio climatico con la perspectiva de una economia emergente de pequeno tamano (Chile) y el analisis cuantitativo de factores que facilitan la TT en una amplia muestra de paises en desarrollo. Se utilizan dos metodologias para el estudio de la TT a paises en desarrollo: analisis comparativo de casos de estudio y analisis cuantitativo basado en metodos multivariantes. Los casos de estudio analizan procesos de TT en diez casos basados en Chile, para derivar conclusiones sobre los factores que facilitan u obstaculizan el proceso de transferencia. El analisis cuantitativo multivariante utiliza tres metodologias: regresion multiple, analisis de componentes principales y analisis cluster. Con dichas metodologias se busca analizar el posicionamiento de diversos paises en cuanto a factores que facilitan la TT; las relaciones entre dichos factores e indicadores de transferencia tecnologica; y crear grupos de paises con caracteristicas similares que podrian beneficiarse de politicas similares para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologia. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran en torno a cuatro preguntas de investigacion: .Que es la transferencia de tecnologia y como ocurre?; .Es posible medir la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?; .Que factores facilitan la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono a paises en desarrollo? y .Como se puede agrupar a los paises en desarrollo en funcion de sus necesidades politicas para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?
Resumo:
En el presente trabajo se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de la biodiversidad del frijol común (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) en Honduras, que es el segundo de los cultivos de granos básicos en importancia. Dicho estudio se ha realizado mediante una caracterización agromorfológica, molecular y ecogeográfica en una selección de 300 accesiones conservadas en el banco de germoplasma ubicado en la Escuela Agrícola Panamericana (EAP) El Zamorano, y que se colectaron en 13 departamentos del país durante el periodo de 1990 a 1994. Estas accesiones fueron colectadas cuatro años antes del acontecimiento del huracán Mitch, el cual a su paso afectó al 96% del área total cultivable en su momento, lo cual nos hace considerar que la biodiversidad de razas locales (landraces) de frijol común existentes in situ fueron severamente afectadas. Los trabajos dirigidos a analizar la biodiversidad de razas locales de frijol común en Honduras son escasos, y este trabajo se constituye como el primero que incluye una amplia muestra a ser estudiada a través de una caracterización en tres aspectos complementarios (agromorfológico, molecular y ecogeográfico). Se evaluaron 32 caracteres agromorfológicos, 12 cuantitativos y 20 cualitativos, en distintas partes de la planta. Se establecieron las correlaciones entre los caracteres agromorfológicos y se elaboró un dendrograma con los mismos, en el que se formaron ocho grupos, en parte relacionados principalmente con los colores y tamaños de la semilla. Mediante el análisis de componentes principales se estudiaron los caracteres de más peso en cada uno de los tres primeros componentes. Asimismo, se estudiaron las correlaciones entre caracteres, siendo las más altas la longitud y anchura de la hoja, días a madurez y a cosecha y longitud y peso de semilla. Por otra parte, el mapa de diversidad agromorfológica mostró la existencia de tres zonas con mayor diversidad: en el oeste (en los departamentos de Santa Bárbara, Lempira y Copán), en el centro-norte (en los departamentos de Francisco Morazán, Yoro y Atlántida) y en el sur (en el departamento de El Paraíso y al sur de Francisco Morazán). Para la caracterización molecular partimos de 12 marcadores de tipo microsatélite, evaluados en 54 accesiones, que fueron elegidas por constituir grupos que compartían un mismo nombre local. Finalmente, se seleccionaron los cuatro microsatélites (BM53, GATS91, BM211 y PV-AT007) que resultaron ser más polimórficos e informativos para el análisis de las 300 accesiones, con los que se detectaron un total de 119 alelos (21 de ellos únicos o privados de accesión) y 256 patrones alélicos diferentes. Para estudiar la estructura y relaciones genéticas en las 300 accesiones se incluyeron en el análisis tres controles o accesiones de referencia, pertenecientes dos de ellas al acervo genético Andino y una al Mesoamericano. En el dendrograma se obtuvieron 25 grupos de accesiones con idénticas combinaciones de alelos. Al comparar este dendrograma con el de caracteres agromorfológicos se observaron diversos grupos con marcada similitud en ambos. Un total de 118 accesiones resultaron ser homogéneas y homocigóticas, a la vez que representativas del grupo de 300 accesiones, por lo que se analizaron con más detalle. El análisis de la estructura genética definió la formación de dos grupos, supuestamente relacionados con los acervos genéticos Andino (48) y Mesoamericano (61), y un reducido número de accesiones (9) que podrían tener un origen híbrido, debido a la existencia de un cierto grado de introgresión entre ambos acervos. La diferenciación genética entre ambos grupos fue del 13,3%. Asimismo, 66 de los 82 alelos detectados fueron privados de grupo, 30 del supuesto grupo Andino y 36 del Mesoamericano. Con relación al mapa de diversidad molecular, presentó una distribución bastante similar al de la diversidad agromorfológica, detectándose también las zonas de mayor diversidad genética en el oeste (en los departamentos de Lempira y Santa Bárbara), en el centro-norte (en los departamentos de Yoro y Atlántida) y en el sur (en el departamento de El Paraíso y al sur de Francisco Morazán). Para la caracterización ecogeográfica se seleccionaron variables de tipo bioclimático (2), geofísico (2) y edáfico (8), y mediante el método de agrupamiento de partición alrededor de los medoides, la combinación de los grupos con cada uno de los tres tipos de variables definió un total de 32 categorías ecogeográficas en el país, detectándose accesiones en 16 de ellas. La distribución de las accesiones previsiblemente esté relacionada con la existencia de condiciones más favorables al cultivo de frijol. En el mapa de diversidad ecogeográfica, nuevamente, se observaron varias zonas con alta diversidad tanto en el oeste, como en el centro-norte y en el sur del país. Como consecuencia del estudio realizado, se concluyó la existencia de una marcada biodiversidad en el material analizado, desde el punto de vista tanto agromorfológico como molecular. Por lo que resulta de gran importancia plantear la conservación de este patrimonio genético tanto ex situ, en bancos de germoplasma, como on farm, en las propias explotaciones de los agricultores del país, siempre que sea posible. ABSTRACT In the present work we have carried out a study of the biodiversity of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) in Honduras, which is the second of the basic grain crops in importance. This study was conducted through agro-morphological, molecular and ecogeographical characterization of a selection of 300 accessions conserved in the genebank located in the ‘Escuela Agrícola Panamericana (EAP) El Zamorano’ that were collected in 13 departments of the country during the 1990 to 1994 period. These accessions were collected four years before the occurrence of Mitch hurricane, which affected 96% of the total cultivable area at the time, which makes us to consider that the biodiversity of local landraces of common bean existing in situ were severely affected. The work aimed to analyze the biodiversity of local races of common bean in Honduras are scarce, and this work constitutes the first to include a large sample to be studied through a characterization on three complementary aspects (agromorphological, molecular and ecogeographical). Thirty two agromorphological characters, 12 quantitative and 20 qualitative, in various parts of the plant were evaluated. Correlations between agromorphological characters were established and a dendrogram with them was constructed, in which eight groups were formed, in part mainly related to the colors and sizes of the seeds. By principal component analysis the characters with more weight in each of the first three components were studied. Also, correlations between characters were studied, the highest of them being length and leaf width, days to maturity and harvest, and seed length and weight. Moreover, the map of agromorphological diversity showed the existence of three areas with more diversity: the west (departments of Santa Barbara, Copan and Lempira), the center-north (departments of Francisco Morazán, Yoro and Atlántida) and the south (department of El Paraiso and south of Francisco Morazán). For molecular characterization we started with 12 microsatellite markers, evaluated in 54 accessions, which were chosen because they formed groups that shared the same local name. Finally, four microsatellites (BM53, GATS91, BM211 and PV-AT007) were selected for the analysis of 300 accessions, since they were the most polymorphic and informative. They gave a total of 119 alleles (21 of them unique or private for the accession) and 256 different allelic patterns. To study the structure and genetic relationships in the 300 accessions, three controls or accessions of reference were included in the analysis: two of them belonging to the Andean gene pool and one to the Mesoamerican. In the dendrogram, 25 accession groups with identical allele combinations were obtained. Comparing this dendrogram to the obtained with agromorphological characters, several groups with marked similarity in both were observed. A total of 118 accessions were homozygous and homogeneous, while representing the group of 300 accessions, therefore they were analyzed in more detail. The analysis of the genetic structure defined the formation of two groups, supposedly related to the Andean (48) and the Mesoamerican (61) gene pools, and a small number of accessions (9) which may have a hybrid origin, due to the existence of some degree of introgression between both gene pools. Genetic differentiation between both groups was 13.3%. Also, 66 of the 82 detected alleles were private or unique for the group, 30 of the supposed Andean group and 36 of the Mesoamerican. With relation to the map of molecular diversity, it showed a quite similar distribution to the agromorphological, also detecting the areas of greatest genetic diversity in the west (departments of Lempira and Santa Bárbara), in the center-north (departments Atlántida and Yoro) and in the south (departments of El Paraíso and south of Francisco Morazán). For the ecogeographical characterization, bioclimatic (2), geophysical (2) and edaphic (8) variables were selected, and by the method of clustering partition around the medoids, the combination of the groups to each of the three types of variables defined a total of 32 ecogeographical categories in the country, having accessions in 16 of them. The distribution of accessions is likely related to the existence of more favorable conditions for the cultivation of beans. The map of ecogeographical diversity, again, several areas with high diversity both in the west and in the center-north and in the south of the country were observed. As a result of study, the existence of marked biodiversity in the analyzed material was concluded, both from the agromorphological and from the molecular point of view. Consequently it is very important to propose the conservation of this genetic heritage both ex situ, in genebanks, as on farm, in the holdings of the farmers of the country, whenever possible.
Resumo:
En medio de un bosque danés, de altos arboles que se mueven al fuerte viento nórdico bajo el débil sol de las latitudes altas, y cargado de unos cuantos tableros de madera que consiguió de una exposición ya terminada, realizó Utzon su maqueta a escala real de su primera casa familiar en Hellebæk (1950-52) a la edad de treinta y dos años. De la misma manera que el pintor William Turner necesitó atarse a lo alto de un mástil de un barco, para vivir en directo una de las muchas tormentas que tantas y tantas veces había pintado en sus cuadros, el joven Utzon consideró indispensable introducirse dentro de la maqueta de su propia casa antes de construirla, para valorar in situ las potencialidades de aquel proyecto en relación al lugar. La obra de Jørn Utzon (1918-2008) es una arquitectura expectante y atenta del lugar donde se ubica. Jørn Utzon es un arquitecto de origen nórdico, que descubre su verdadera idiosincrasia en la cultura mediterránea, cultura en la que reside durante casi la mitad de toda su vida. Esta tesis se ha centrado en analizar exhaustivamente la relación de su arquitectura doméstica con el lugar donde se halla. Aspecto tan citado en la bibliografía existente de su obra, aunque nunca desarrollado de manera exhaustiva. El objetivo del análisis ha sido intentar encontrar invariantes o patrones que pudieran subyacer en su obra residencial en relación a ese tema. Para dicho análisis, se ha tomado una muestra suficientemente amplia de veinte viviendas o conjuntos residenciales (entre ellas sus cuatro viviendas familiares proyectadas), repartidas por cinco países (Suecia, Dinamarca, Reino Unido, España y Nueva Gales del Sur), que constituyen la tercera parte de su obra doméstica y la mitad de su obra construida residencial, así como las citas explícitas del autor sobre este tema en su obra escrita, y los planos o croquis de su obra gráfica. Como metodología de trabajo se ha recurrido a la consulta de las fuentes primarias: viajando y conociendo in-situ las casas seleccionadas en Dinamarca, Suecia, España y Australia; viviendo un mes en una de las casas (Can Lis) gracias a una beca del Gobierno danés y la Utzon Foundation; y realizando entrevistas a las personas que más cerca estuvieron del arquitecto en su entorno familiar y profesional. Asimismo, también se ha publicado parte de su contenido en medios internacionales: 4th International Utzon Symposium (7/3/2013-9/3/2014) y la página web oficial de Can Lis dependiente de la Utzon Foundation (www.canlis.dk). Las doce invariantes encontradas en relación al proyecto y lugar en los proyectos seleccionados, han sido agrupadas en torno a tres grandes elementos sobre los que Utzon constantemente reflexiona en sus escritos propios: horizonte, sol y material autóctono. Elementos que tienen su origen en la influencia que la navegación tuvo en su vida, y en su carácter espiritual y austero en lo material. La historia de Utzon es la de un nórdico, de vocación navegante, que encuentra su lugar en la cultura mediterránea, rodeado entre piedras de Marés, mientras divisa en silencio el horizonte marino en el umbral entre luz y sombra. ABSTRACT In the middle of a Danish forest, with high trees which move with the Nordic wind under the weak sun of high latitudes, and with the help of some wooden canvases acquired from an already completed exhibition, Jørn Utzon built a real-scale model of his first family house in Hellebæk (1950-52) at the age of thirty-two. In the same way that William Turner needed to be tied up on the top of a boat flagpole in order to have a first-hand experience of one of the many storms that he had depicted in his paintings so many times before, the young Utzon thought it was crucial to go into the model of his own house before building it, to evaluate in situ the potential of that project in relation to the place. Utzon’s work is architecture interested in and attentive of the place where it is situated. Jørn Utzon (1918-2008) is an architect of Nordic origin who discovered his own idiosyncrasy in the Mediterranean culture, in which he resided for half of his live. This thesis has focused on an exhaustive analysis of the relation between his domestic architecture and the place where it is located. This issue has been often cited in the existing bibliography, although it has never been exhaustively developed. The analysis objective has been to attempt to find invariants and patterns that could exist in his domestic work in relation to this subject. For this analysis, a sufficiently large sample has been selected: twenty houses or housing complexes (among others his own four family houses), distributed in five countries (Sweden, Denmark, United Kingdom, Spain and New South Wales), which constitute the third part of his domestic work, and half of his residential constructed projects, as well as Utzon’s written texts about this theme, and the drawings and sketches of his graphic work. The methodology used was based on consultation of primary sources: travelling and examining in situ the selected houses in Denmark, Sweden, Spain and Australia; living for a month in one of the houses (Can Lis) thanks to a research grant from the Danish Government and the Utzon Foundation; and interviewing people from his closest family and professional circles. Furthermore, part of the thesis has been published in international media: 4th International Utzon Symposium (7/3/2013-9/3/2014) and on the official web site of Can Lis, an Utzon Foundation subsidiary(www.canlis.dk). The twelve invariants discovered in relation to the project and the location of the selected projects, have been grouped according to three elements which Utzon continuously reflects upon in his own writings: the horizon, the sun and autochthonous material. Elements which originate from the influence that navigation had in his life, and from his spiritual and austere character. The story of Utzon is that of a Nordic person, with the vocation of a navigator, who found his place in the Mediterranean culture, surrounded with Marés stones, while silently making out the sea horizon on the threshold between light and shadow.
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This study analyzes the effect of organizational characteristics on the innovation project performance. This research applies fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to a large sample of Spanish firms appearing in the Community Innovation survey (CIS). The results show that the combination of organizational innovation, firm size and cooperationwith national and, especially, international firms is a sufficient condition for the success of innovation projects within the organization. Evidence also suggests that variables such as the investment on R&D peremployee or the seniority of the company do not affect the success of innovation projects. These findings help complement some results in previous studies on innovation projects performance.
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In this work gliadin proteins were used to analyse the genetic variability in a sample of the durum wheat Spanish collection conserved at the CRF-INIA. In total 38 different alleles were identified at the loci Gli-A1, Gli-A3, Gli-B5, Gli-B1, Gli-A2 and Gli-B2. All the gliadin loci were polymorphic, possessed large genetic diversity and small and large differentiation within and between varieties, respectively. The Gli-A2 and Gli-B2 loci were the most polymorphic, the most fixed within varieties and the most useful to distinguish among varieties. Alternatively, Gli-B1 locus presented the least genetic variability out of the four main loci Gli-A1, Gli-B1, Gli-A2 and Gli-B2. The Gli-B1 alleles coding for the gliadin γ-45, associated with good quality, had an accumulated frequency of 69.7%, showing that the Spanish germplasm could be a good source for breeding quality. The Spanish landraces studied showed new gliadin alleles not catalogued so far. These new alleles might be associated with specific Spanish environment factors. The large number of new alleles identified also indicates that durum wheat Spanish germplasm is rather unique.
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The complex-rotated hyperspherical adiabatic method is used to study the decay of lowlying 9Be and 9B resonances into α, α and n or p. We consider six low-lying resonances of 9Be (1/2±, 3/2± and 5/2±) and one resonance of 9B (5/2−) to compare with. The properties of the resonances at large distances are decisive for the momentum distributions of the three decaying fragments. Systematic detailed energy correlations of Dalitz plots are presented.
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Most empirical disciplines promote the reuse and sharing of datasets, as it leads to greater possibility of replication. While this is increasingly the case in Empirical Software Engineering, some of the most popular bug-fix datasets are now known to be biased. This raises two significants concerns: first, that sample bias may lead to underperforming prediction models, and second, that the external validity of the studies based on biased datasets may be suspect. This issue has raised considerable consternation in the ESE literature in recent years. However, there is a confounding factor of these datasets that has not been examined carefully: size. Biased datasets are sampling only some of the data that could be sampled, and doing so in a biased fashion; but biased samples could be smaller, or larger. Smaller data sets in general provide less reliable bases for estimating models, and thus could lead to inferior model performance. In this setting, we ask the question, what affects performance more? bias, or size? We conduct a detailed, large-scale meta-analysis, using simulated datasets sampled with bias from a high-quality dataset which is relatively free of bias. Our results suggest that size always matters just as much bias direction, and in fact much more than bias direction when considering information-retrieval measures such as AUC and F-score. This indicates that at least for prediction models, even when dealing with sampling bias, simply finding larger samples can sometimes be sufficient. Our analysis also exposes the complexity of the bias issue, and raises further issues to be explored in the future.
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The computational study commented by Touchette opens the door to a desirable generalization of standard large deviation theory for special, though ubiquitous, correlations. We focus on three interrelated aspects: (i) numerical results strongly suggest that the standard exponential probability law is asymptotically replaced by a power-law dominant term; (ii) a subdominant term appears to reinforce the thermodynamically extensive entropic nature of q-generalized rate function; (iii) the correlations we discussed, correspond to Q -Gaussian distributions, differing from Lévy?s, except in the case of Cauchy?Lorentz distributions. Touchette has agreeably discussed point (i), but, unfortunately, points (ii) and (iii) escaped to his analysis. Claiming the absence of connection with q-exponentials is unjustified.
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En una región amplia como España se demuestra —mediante inferencias estadísticas sobre una muestra completa de 875 manantiales en los que se conoce su caudal medio y la litología de su área de alimentación y que han sido agrupados en regiones de distinta pluviometría— que la recarga media anual es una fracción fija de la precipitación media para cada litología. Se han establecido así unas tasas de recarga respecto de la precipitación para seis grupos litológicos de diferente permeabilidad: arenas, gravas y formaciones aluviales en general, 8.3%; conglomerados, 5.6%; areniscas, 7.3%; calizas y dolomías, 34.3%; margas, margocalizas, limos y arcillas, 3.3%; otras rocas, 1.3%. Teniendo en cuenta la representatividad de España, la cual tiene una gran variabilidad de litología, pluviometría, topografía, etcétera, estas tasas de recarga respecto de la precipita-ción son probablemente valores cuasi universales que pueden ser utilizados para estimar la recarga media o los recursos hídricos subterráneos medios de regiones amplias en cualquier parte del mundo, salvo en regiones especiales, como las que tienen permafrost, por ejemplo. En todo caso, estas tasas de recarga podrían ser retocadas para cada región según sus particulares características. Los datos de precipitación y litología son muy corrientes, por lo que el método puede ser ampliamente utilizado para completar balances hidráulicos.In a region as large as Spain, annual mean recharge is shown to be a fixed proportion of the mean rainfall for each lithology. This determination is based on statistical inferences from a complete sample of 875 springs for which mean flow and catchment areas are known and which have been grouped into distinct rainfall regions. Recharge rates have thus been established with respect to rainfall for six lithological groups with different permeability: sands, gravels and generally alluvial formations, 8.3%; conglomerates, 5.6%; sandstones, 7.3%; limestone and dolomite 34.3%; marls, marly limestones, silts and clays, 3.3%; and hard rocks, 1.3%. Considering the representativeness of Spain, which is large in size and has a highly varied lithology, topography and rainfall, these recharge rates for rainfall are probably quasi-universal values that can be used to estimate average recharge or average groundwater resources of large regions in any part of the world (except in special cases such as areas with permafrost, for example). For any case, these recharge rates can be adapted to each region according to its particular characteristics. Rainfall and lithology data are very common, and so the method can be widely used to calculate hydraulic balances.
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Assuring the sustainability of quality in photovoltaic rural electrification programmes involves enhancing the reliability of the components of solar home systems as well as the characterization of the overall programme cost structure. Batteries and photovoltaic modules have a great impact on both the reliability and the cost assessment, the battery being the weakest component of the solar home system and consequently the most expensive element of the programme. The photovoltaic module, despite being the most reliable component, has a significant impact cost-wise on the initial investment, even at current market prices. This paper focuses on the in-field testing of both batteries and photovoltaic modules working under real operating conditions within a sample of 41 solar home systems belonging to a large photovoltaic rural electrification programme with more than 13,000 installed photovoltaic systems. Different reliability parameters such as lifetime have been evaluated, taking into account different factors, for example energy consumption rates, or the manufacturing quality of batteries. A degradation model has been proposed relating both loss of capacity and time of operation. The user e solar home system binomial is also analysed in order to understand the meaning of battery lifetime in rural electrification.
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In a large number of physical, biological and environmental processes interfaces with high irregular geometry appear separating media (phases) in which the heterogeneity of constituents is present. In this work the quantification of the interplay between irregular structures and surrounding heterogeneous distributions in the plane is made For a geometric set image and a mass distribution (measure) image supported in image, being image, the mass image gives account of the interplay between the geometric structure and the surrounding distribution. A computation method is developed for the estimation and corresponding scaling analysis of image, being image a fractal plane set of Minkowski dimension image and image a multifractal measure produced by random multiplicative cascades. The method is applied to natural and mathematical fractal structures in order to study the influence of both, the irregularity of the geometric structure and the heterogeneity of the distribution, in the scaling of image. Applications to the analysis and modeling of interplay of phases in environmental scenarios are given.