Complexity analysis of spontaneous brain activity: effects of depression and antidepressant treatment

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) allows the real-time recording of neural activity and oscillatory activity in distributed neural networks. We applied a non-linear complexity analysis to resting-state neural activity as measured using whole-head MEG. Recordings were obtained from 20 unmedicated patients with major depressive disorder and 19 matched healthy controls. Subsequently, after 6 months of pharmacological treatment with the antidepressant mirtazapine 30 mg/day, patients received a second MEG scan. A measure of the complexity of neural signals, the Lempel–Ziv Complexity (LZC), was derived from the MEG time series. We found that depressed patients showed higher pre-treatment complexity values compared with controls, and that complexity values decreased after 6 months of effective pharmacological treatment, although this effect was statistically significant only in younger patients. The main treatment effect was to recover the tendency observed in controls of a positive correlation between age and complexity values. Importantly, the reduction of complexity with treatment correlated with the degree of clinical symptom remission. We suggest that LZC, a formal measure of neural activity complexity, is sensitive to the dynamic physiological changes observed in depression and may potentially offer an objective marker of depression and its remission after treatment.

Non-failure analysis for logic programs

We provide a method whereby, given mode and (upper approximation) type information, we can detect procedures and goals that can be guaranteed to not fail (i.e., to produce at least one solution or not termínate). The technique is based on an intuitively very simple notion, that of a (set of) tests "covering" the type of a set of variables. We show that the problem of determining a covering is undecidable in general, and give decidability and complexity results for the Herbrand and linear arithmetic constraint systems. We give sound algorithms for determining covering that are precise and efiicient in practice. Based on this information, we show how to identify goals and procedures that can be guaranteed to not fail at runtime. Applications of such non-failure information include programming error detection, program transiormations and parallel execution optimization, avoiding speculative parallelism and estimating lower bounds on the computational costs of goals, which can be used for granularity control. Finally, we report on an implementation of our method and show that better results are obtained than with previously proposed approaches.

Hybrid incremental modeling based on least squares and fuzzy K-NN for monitoring tool wear in turning processes

There is now an emerging need for an efficient modeling strategy to develop a new generation of monitoring systems. One method of approaching the modeling of complex processes is to obtain a global model. It should be able to capture the basic or general behavior of the system, by means of a linear or quadratic regression, and then superimpose a local model on it that can capture the localized nonlinearities of the system. In this paper, a novel method based on a hybrid incremental modeling approach is designed and applied for tool wear detection in turning processes. It involves a two-step iterative process that combines a global model with a local model to take advantage of their underlying, complementary capacities. Thus, the first step constructs a global model using a least squares regression. A local model using the fuzzy k-nearest-neighbors smoothing algorithm is obtained in the second step. A comparative study then demonstrates that the hybrid incremental model provides better error-based performance indices for detecting tool wear than a transductive neurofuzzy model and an inductive neurofuzzy model.

Aplicación de técnicas de inteligencia artificial a la predicción de contaminantes atmosféricos

Abstract Air pollution is a big threat and a phenomenon that has a specific impact on human health, in addition, changes that occur in the chemical composition of the atmosphere can change the weather and cause acid rain or ozone destruction. Those are phenomena of global importance. The World Health Organization (WHO) considerates air pollution as one of the most important global priorities. Salamanca, Gto., Mexico has been ranked as one of the most polluted cities in this country. The industry of the area led to a major economic development and rapid population growth in the second half of the twentieth century. The impact in the air quality is important and significant efforts have been made to measure the concentrations of pollutants. The main pollution sources are locally based plants in the chemical and power generation sectors. The registered concerning pollutants are Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) and particles on the order of ∼10 micrometers or less (PM10). The prediction in the concentration of those pollutants can be a powerful tool in order to take preventive measures such as the reduction of emissions and alerting the affected population. In this PhD thesis we propose a model to predict concentrations of pollutants SO2 and PM10 for each monitoring booth in the Atmospheric Monitoring Network Salamanca (REDMAS - for its spanish acronym). The proposed models consider the use of meteorological variables as factors influencing the concentration of pollutants. The information used along this work is the current real data from REDMAS. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms are used. The type of ANN used is the Multilayer Perceptron with a hidden layer, using separate structures for the prediction of each pollutant. The meteorological variables used for prediction were: Wind Direction (WD), wind speed (WS), Temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). Clustering algorithms, K-means and Fuzzy C-means, are used to find relationships between air pollutants and weather variables under consideration, which are added as input of the RNA. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the prediction of the pollutants. The results of the model proposed in this work are compared with the results of a multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The evaluation of the prediction is calculated with the mean absolute error, the root mean square error, the correlation coefficient and the index of agreement. The results show the importance of meteorological variables in the prediction of the concentration of the pollutants SO2 and PM10 in the city of Salamanca, Gto., Mexico. The results show that the proposed model perform better than multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The models implemented for each monitoring booth have the ability to make predictions of air quality that can be used in a system of real-time forecasting and human health impact analysis. Among the main results of the development of this thesis we can cite: A model based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms for prediction with a hour ahead of the concentration of each pollutant (SO2 and PM10) is proposed. A different model was designed for each pollutant and for each of the three monitoring booths of the REDMAS. A model to predict the average of pollutant concentration in the next 24 hours of pollutants SO2 and PM10 is proposed, based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms. Model was designed for each booth of the REDMAS and each pollutant separately. Resumen La contaminación atmosférica es una amenaza aguda, constituye un fenómeno que tiene particular incidencia sobre la salud del hombre. Los cambios que se producen en la composición química de la atmósfera pueden cambiar el clima, producir lluvia ácida o destruir el ozono, fenómenos todos ellos de una gran importancia global. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) considera la contaminación atmosférica como una de las más importantes prioridades mundiales. Salamanca, Gto., México; ha sido catalogada como una de las ciudades más contaminadas en este país. La industria de la zona propició un importante desarrollo económico y un crecimiento acelerado de la población en la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Las afectaciones en el aire son graves y se han hecho importantes esfuerzos por medir las concentraciones de los contaminantes. Las principales fuentes de contaminación son fuentes fijas como industrias químicas y de generación eléctrica. Los contaminantes que se han registrado como preocupantes son el Bióxido de Azufre (SO2) y las Partículas Menores a 10 micrómetros (PM10). La predicción de las concentraciones de estos contaminantes puede ser una potente herramienta que permita tomar medidas preventivas como reducción de emisiones a la atmósfera y alertar a la población afectada. En la presente tesis doctoral se propone un modelo de predicción de concentraci ón de los contaminantes más críticos SO2 y PM10 para cada caseta de monitorización de la Red de Monitorización Atmosférica de Salamanca (REDMAS). Los modelos propuestos plantean el uso de las variables meteorol ógicas como factores que influyen en la concentración de los contaminantes. La información utilizada durante el desarrollo de este trabajo corresponde a datos reales obtenidos de la REDMAS. En el Modelo Propuesto (MP) se aplican Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) combinadas con algoritmos de agrupamiento. La RNA utilizada es el Perceptrón Multicapa con una capa oculta, utilizando estructuras independientes para la predicción de cada contaminante. Las variables meteorológicas disponibles para realizar la predicción fueron: Dirección de Viento (DV), Velocidad de Viento (VV), Temperatura (T) y Humedad Relativa (HR). Los algoritmos de agrupamiento K-means y Fuzzy C-means son utilizados para encontrar relaciones existentes entre los contaminantes atmosféricos en estudio y las variables meteorológicas. Dichas relaciones aportan información a las RNA para obtener la predicción de los contaminantes, la cual es agregada como entrada de las RNA. Los resultados del modelo propuesto en este trabajo son comparados con los resultados de una Regresión Lineal Multivariable (RLM) y un Perceptrón Multicapa (MLP). La evaluación de la predicción se realiza con el Error Medio Absoluto, la Raíz del Error Cuadrático Medio, el coeficiente de correlación y el índice de acuerdo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la importancia de las variables meteorológicas en la predicción de la concentración de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 en la ciudad de Salamanca, Gto., México. Los resultados muestran que el MP predice mejor la concentración de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 que los modelos RLM y MLP. Los modelos implementados para cada caseta de monitorizaci ón tienen la capacidad para realizar predicciones de calidad del aire, estos modelos pueden ser implementados en un sistema que permita realizar la predicción en tiempo real y analizar el impacto en la salud de la población. Entre los principales resultados obtenidos del desarrollo de esta tesis podemos citar: Se propone un modelo basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento para la predicción con una hora de anticipaci ón de la concentración de cada contaminante (SO2 y PM10). Se diseñó un modelo diferente para cada contaminante y para cada una de las tres casetas de monitorización de la REDMAS. Se propone un modelo de predicción del promedio de la concentración de las próximas 24 horas de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10, basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento. Se diseñó un modelo para cada caseta de monitorización de la REDMAS y para cada contaminante por separado.

The estimation of truncation error by tau-estimation revisited

The aim of this paper was to accurately estimate the local truncation error of partial differential equations, that are numerically solved using a finite difference or finite volume approach on structured and unstructured meshes. In this work, we approximated the local truncation error using the @t-estimation procedure, which aims to compare the residuals on a sequence of grids with different spacing. First, we focused the analysis on one-dimensional scalar linear and non-linear test cases to examine the accuracy of the estimation of the truncation error for both finite difference and finite volume approaches on different grid topologies. Then, we extended the analysis to two-dimensional problems: first on linear and non-linear scalar equations and finally on the Euler equations. We demonstrated that this approach yields a highly accurate estimation of the truncation error if some conditions are fulfilled. These conditions are related to the accuracy of the restriction operators, the choice of the boundary conditions, the distortion of the grids and the magnitude of the iteration error.

Serial or Parallel Linear-Assisted Switching Converter as Envelope Amplifier: Optimization and Comparison

This paper presents a theoretical analysis and an optimization method for envelope amplifier. Highly efficient envelope amplifiers based on a switching converter in parallel or series with a linear regulator have been analyzed and optimized. The results of the optimization process have been shown and these two architectures are compared regarding their complexity and efficiency. The optimization method that is proposed is based on the previous knowledge about the transmitted signal type (OFDM, WCDMA...) and it can be applied to any signal type as long as the envelope probability distribution is known. Finally, it is shown that the analyzed architectures have an inherent efficiency limit.

A robustness verification system for mobile phone authentication based on gestures using Linear Discriminant Analysis

This article evaluates an authentication technique for mobiles based on gestures. Users create a remindful identifying gesture to be considered as their in-air signature. This work analyzes a database of 120 gestures of different vulnerability, obtaining an Equal Error Rate (EER) of 9.19% when robustness of gestures is not verified. Most of the errors in this EER come from very simple and easily forgeable gestures that should be discarded at enrollment phase. Therefore, an in-air signature robustness verification system using Linear Discriminant Analysis is proposed to infer automatically whether the gesture is secure or not. Different configurations have been tested obtaining a lowest EER of 4.01% when 45.02% of gestures were discarded, and an optimal compromise of EER of 4.82% when 19.19% of gestures were automatically rejected.

The correlation between white-matter microstructure and the complexity of spontaneous brain activity: A difussion tensor imaging-MEG study

The advent of new signal processing methods, such as non-linear analysis techniques, represents a new perspective which adds further value to brain signals' analysis. Particularly, Lempel–Ziv's Complexity (LZC) has proven to be useful in exploring the complexity of the brain electromagnetic activity. However, an important problem is the lack of knowledge about the physiological determinants of these measures. Although acorrelation between complexity and connectivity has been proposed, this hypothesis was never tested in vivo. Thus, the correlation between the microstructure of the anatomic connectivity and the functional complexity of the brain needs to be inspected. In this study we analyzed the correlation between LZC and fractional anisotropy (FA), a scalar quantity derived from diffusion tensors that is particularly useful as an estimate of the functional integrity of myelinated axonal fibers, in a group of sixteen healthy adults (all female, mean age 65.56 ± 6.06 years, intervals 58–82). Our results showed a positive correlation between FA and LZC scores in regions including clusters in the splenium of the corpus callosum, cingulum, parahipocampal regions and the sagittal stratum. This study supports the notion of a positive correlation between the functional complexity of the brain and the microstructure of its anatomical connectivity. Our investigation proved that a combination of neuroanatomical and neurophysiological techniques may shed some light on the underlying physiological determinants of brain's oscillations

Energy/power consumption model for an embedded processor board

This dissertation, whose research has been conducted at the Group of Electronic and Microelectronic Design (GDEM) within the framework of the project Power Consumption Control in Multimedia Terminals (PCCMUTE), focuses on the development of an energy estimation model for the battery-powered embedded processor board. The main objectives and contributions of the work are summarized as follows: A model is proposed to obtain the accurate energy estimation results based on the linear correlation between the performance monitoring counters (PMCs) and energy consumption. the uniqueness of the appropriate PMCs for each different system, the modeling methodology is improved to obtain stable accuracies with slight variations among multiple scenarios and to be repeatable in other systems. It includes two steps: the former, the PMC-filter, to identify the most proper set among the available PMCs of a system and the latter, the k-fold cross validation method, to avoid the bias during the model training stage. The methodology is implemented on a commercial embedded board running the 2.6.34 Linux kernel and the PAPI, a cross-platform interface to configure and access PMCs. The results show that the methodology is able to keep a good stability in different scenarios and provide robust estimation results with the average relative error being less than 5%. Este trabajo fin de máster, cuya investigación se ha desarrollado en el Grupo de Diseño Electrónico y Microelectrónico (GDEM) en el marco del proyecto PccMuTe, se centra en el desarrollo de un modelo de estimación de energía para un sistema empotrado alimentado por batería. Los objetivos principales y las contribuciones de esta tesis se resumen como sigue: Se propone un modelo para obtener estimaciones precisas del consumo de energía de un sistema empotrado. El modelo se basa en la correlación lineal entre los valores de los contadores de prestaciones y el consumo de energía. Considerando la particularidad de los contadores de prestaciones en cada sistema, la metodología de modelado se ha mejorado para obtener precisiones estables, con ligeras variaciones entre escenarios múltiples y para replicar los resultados en diferentes sistemas. La metodología incluye dos etapas: la primera, filtrado-PMC, que consiste en identificar el conjunto más apropiado de contadores de prestaciones de entre los disponibles en un sistema y la segunda, el método de validación cruzada de K iteraciones, cuyo fin es evitar los sesgos durante la fase de entrenamiento. La metodología se implementa en un sistema empotrado que ejecuta el kernel 2.6.34 de Linux y PAPI, un interfaz multiplataforma para configurar y acceder a los contadores. Los resultados muestran que esta metodología consigue una buena estabilidad en diferentes escenarios y proporciona unos resultados robustos de estimación con un error medio relativo inferior al 5%.

El problema del rozamiento en el análisis de estructuras de fábrica mediante modelos de sólidos rígidos

La evaluación de la seguridad de estructuras antiguas de fábrica es un problema abierto.El material es heterogéneo y anisótropo, el estado previo de tensiones difícil de conocer y las condiciones de contorno inciertas. A comienzos de los años 50 se demostró que el análisis límite era aplicable a este tipo de estructuras, considerándose desde entonces como una herramienta adecuada. En los casos en los que no se produce deslizamiento la aplicación de los teoremas del análisis límite estándar constituye una herramienta formidable por su simplicidad y robustez. No es necesario conocer el estado real de tensiones. Basta con encontrar cualquier solución de equilibrio, y que satisfaga las condiciones de límite del material, en la seguridad de que su carga será igual o inferior a la carga real de inicio de colapso. Además esta carga de inicio de colapso es única (teorema de la unicidad) y se puede obtener como el óptimo de uno cualquiera entre un par de programas matemáticos convexos duales. Sin embargo, cuando puedan existir mecanismos de inicio de colapso que impliquen deslizamientos, cualquier solución debe satisfacer tanto las restricciones estáticas como las cinemáticas, así como un tipo especial de restricciones disyuntivas que ligan las anteriores y que pueden plantearse como de complementariedad. En este último caso no está asegurada la existencia de una solución única, por lo que es necesaria la búsqueda de otros métodos para tratar la incertidumbre asociada a su multiplicidad. En los últimos años, la investigación se ha centrado en la búsqueda de un mínimo absoluto por debajo del cual el colapso sea imposible. Este método es fácil de plantear desde el punto de vista matemático, pero intratable computacionalmente, debido a las restricciones de complementariedad 0 y z 0 que no son ni convexas ni suaves. El problema de decisión resultante es de complejidad computacional No determinista Polinomial (NP)- completo y el problema de optimización global NP-difícil. A pesar de ello, obtener una solución (sin garantía de exito) es un problema asequible. La presente tesis propone resolver el problema mediante Programación Lineal Secuencial, aprovechando las especiales características de las restricciones de complementariedad, que escritas en forma bilineal son del tipo y z = 0; y 0; z 0 , y aprovechando que el error de complementariedad (en forma bilineal) es una función de penalización exacta. Pero cuando se trata de encontrar la peor solución, el problema de optimización global equivalente es intratable (NP-difícil). Además, en tanto no se demuestre la existencia de un principio de máximo o mínimo, existe la duda de que el esfuerzo empleado en aproximar este mínimo esté justificado. En el capítulo 5, se propone hallar la distribución de frecuencias del factor de carga, para todas las soluciones de inicio de colapso posibles, sobre un sencillo ejemplo. Para ello, se realiza un muestreo de soluciones mediante el método de Monte Carlo, utilizando como contraste un método exacto de computación de politopos. El objetivo final es plantear hasta que punto está justificada la busqueda del mínimo absoluto y proponer un método alternativo de evaluación de la seguridad basado en probabilidades. Las distribuciones de frecuencias, de los factores de carga correspondientes a las soluciones de inicio de colapso obtenidas para el caso estudiado, muestran que tanto el valor máximo como el mínimo de los factores de carga son muy infrecuentes, y tanto más, cuanto más perfecto y contínuo es el contacto. Los resultados obtenidos confirman el interés de desarrollar nuevos métodos probabilistas. En el capítulo 6, se propone un método de este tipo basado en la obtención de múltiples soluciones, desde puntos de partida aleatorios y calificando los resultados mediante la Estadística de Orden. El propósito es determinar la probabilidad de inicio de colapso para cada solución.El método se aplica (de acuerdo a la reducción de expectativas propuesta por la Optimización Ordinal) para obtener una solución que se encuentre en un porcentaje determinado de las peores. Finalmente, en el capítulo 7, se proponen métodos híbridos, incorporando metaheurísticas, para los casos en que la búsqueda del mínimo global esté justificada. Abstract Safety assessment of the historic masonry structures is an open problem. The material is heterogeneous and anisotropic, the previous state of stress is hard to know and the boundary conditions are uncertain. In the early 50's it was proven that limit analysis was applicable to this kind of structures, being considered a suitable tool since then. In cases where no slip occurs, the application of the standard limit analysis theorems constitutes an excellent tool due to its simplicity and robustness. It is enough find any equilibrium solution which satisfy the limit constraints of the material. As we are certain that this load will be equal to or less than the actual load of the onset of collapse, it is not necessary to know the actual stresses state. Furthermore this load for the onset of collapse is unique (uniqueness theorem), and it can be obtained as the optimal from any of two mathematical convex duals programs However, if the mechanisms of the onset of collapse involve sliding, any solution must satisfy both static and kinematic constraints, and also a special kind of disjunctive constraints linking the previous ones, which can be formulated as complementarity constraints. In the latter case, it is not guaranted the existence of a single solution, so it is necessary to look for other ways to treat the uncertainty associated with its multiplicity. In recent years, research has been focused on finding an absolute minimum below which collapse is impossible. This method is easy to set from a mathematical point of view, but computationally intractable. This is due to the complementarity constraints 0 y z 0 , which are neither convex nor smooth. The computational complexity of the resulting decision problem is "Not-deterministic Polynomialcomplete" (NP-complete), and the corresponding global optimization problem is NP-hard. However, obtaining a solution (success is not guaranteed) is an affordable problem. This thesis proposes solve that problem through Successive Linear Programming: taking advantage of the special characteristics of complementarity constraints, which written in bilinear form are y z = 0; y 0; z 0 ; and taking advantage of the fact that the complementarity error (bilinear form) is an exact penalty function. But when it comes to finding the worst solution, the (equivalent) global optimization problem is intractable (NP-hard). Furthermore, until a minimum or maximum principle is not demonstrated, it is questionable that the effort expended in approximating this minimum is justified. XIV In chapter 5, it is proposed find the frequency distribution of the load factor, for all possible solutions of the onset of collapse, on a simple example. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo sampling of solutions is performed using a contrast method "exact computation of polytopes". The ultimate goal is to determine to which extent the search of the global minimum is justified, and to propose an alternative approach to safety assessment based on probabilities. The frequency distributions for the case study show that both the maximum and the minimum load factors are very infrequent, especially when the contact gets more perfect and more continuous. The results indicates the interest of developing new probabilistic methods. In Chapter 6, is proposed a method based on multiple solutions obtained from random starting points, and qualifying the results through Order Statistics. The purpose is to determine the probability for each solution of the onset of collapse. The method is applied (according to expectations reduction given by the Ordinal Optimization) to obtain a solution that is in a certain percentage of the worst. Finally, in Chapter 7, hybrid methods incorporating metaheuristics are proposed for cases in which the search for the global minimum is justified.

Linear Approach to the Orbiting Spacecraft Thermal Problem

A linear method is developed for solving the nonlinear differential equations of a lumped-parameter thermal model of a spacecraft moving in a closed orbit. This method, based on perturbation theory, is compared with heuristic linearizations of the same equations. The essential feature of the linear approach is that it provides a decomposition in thermal modes, like the decomposition of mechanical vibrations in normal modes. The stationary periodic solution of the linear equations can be alternately expressed as an explicit integral or as a Fourier series. This method is applied to a minimal thermal model of a satellite with ten isothermal parts (nodes), and the method is compared with direct numerical integration of the nonlinear equations. The computational complexity of this method is briefly studied for general thermal models of orbiting spacecraft, and it is concluded that it is certainly useful for reduced models and conceptual design but it can also be more efficient than the direct integration of the equations for large models. The results of the Fourier series computations for the ten-node satellite model show that the periodic solution at the second perturbative order is sufficiently accurate.

Comparing linear and non linear wind flow models

Assessing wind conditions on complex terrain has become a hard task as terrain complexity increases. That is why there is a need to extrapolate in a reliable manner some wind parameters that determine wind farms viability such as annual average wind speed at all hub heights as well as turbulence intensities. The development of these tasks began in the early 90´s with the widely used linear model WAsP and WAsP Engineering especially designed for simple terrain with remarkable results on them but not so good on complex orographies. Simultaneously non-linearized Navier Stokes solvers have been rapidly developed in the last decade through CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) codes allowing simulating atmospheric boundary layer flows over steep complex terrain more accurately reducing uncertainties. This paper describes the features of these models by validating them through meteorological masts installed in a highly complex terrain. The study compares the results of the mentioned models in terms of wind speed and turbulence intensity.

Analysis of spontaneous MEG activity in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease using spectral entropies and statistical complexity measures

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia. Over the last few years, a considerable effort has been devoted to exploring new biomarkers. Nevertheless, a better understanding of brain dynamics is still required to optimize therapeutic strategies. In this regard, the characterization of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial, due to the high conversion rate from MCI to AD. However, only a few studies have focused on the analysis of magnetoencephalographic (MEG) rhythms to characterize AD and MCI. In this study, we assess the ability of several parameters derived from information theory to describe spontaneous MEG activity from 36 AD patients, 18 MCI subjects and 26 controls. Three entropies (Shannon, Tsallis and Rényi entropies), one disequilibrium measure (based on Euclidean distance ED) and three statistical complexities (based on Lopez Ruiz–Mancini–Calbet complexity LMC) were used to estimate the irregularity and statistical complexity of MEG activity. Statistically significant differences between AD patients and controls were obtained with all parameters (p < 0.01). In addition, statistically significant differences between MCI subjects and controls were achieved by ED and LMC (p < 0.05). In order to assess the diagnostic ability of the parameters, a linear discriminant analysis with a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied. The accuracies reached 83.9% and 65.9% to discriminate AD and MCI subjects from controls, respectively. Our findings suggest that MCI subjects exhibit an intermediate pattern of abnormalities between normal aging and AD. Furthermore, the proposed parameters provide a new description of brain dynamics in AD and MCI.

Sistema de instrumentação e controle para células a combustível

Este trabajo presenta un estudio sobre el funcionamiento y aplicaciones de las células de combustible de membrana tipo PEM, o de intercambio de protones, alimentadas con hidrógeno puro y oxigeno obtenido de aire comprimido. Una vez evaluado el proceso de dichas células y las variables que intervienen en el mismo, como presión, humedad y temperatura, se presenta una variedad de métodos para la instrumentación de tales variables así como métodos y sistemas para la estabilidad y control de las mismas, en torno a los valores óptimos para una mayor eficacia en el proceso. Tomando como variable principal a controlar la temperatura del proceso, y exponiendo los valores concretos en torno a 80 grados centígrados entre los que debe situarse, es realizado un modelo del proceso de calentamiento y evolución de la temperatura en función de la potencia del calentador resistivo en el dominio de la frecuencia compleja, y a su vez implementado un sistema de medición mediante sensores termopar de tipo K de respuesta casi lineal. La señal medida por los sensores es amplificada de manera diferencial mediante amplificadores de instrumentación INA2126, y es desarrollado un algoritmo de corrección de error de unión fría (error producido por la inclusión de nuevos metales del conector en el efecto termopar). Son incluidos los datos de test referentes al sistema de medición de temperatura , incluyendo las desviaciones o error respecto a los valores ideales de medida. Para la adquisición de datos y implementación de algoritmos de control, es utilizado un PC con el software Labview de National Instruments, que permite una programación intuitiva, versátil y visual, y poder realizar interfaces de usuario gráficas simples. La conexión entre el hardware de instrumentación y control de la célula y el PC se realiza mediante un interface de adquisición de datos USB NI 6800 que cuenta con un amplio número de salidas y entradas analógicas. Una vez digitalizadas las muestras de la señal medida, y corregido el error de unión fría anteriormente apuntado, es implementado en dicho software un controlador de tipo PID ( proporcional-integral-derivativo) , que se presenta como uno de los métodos más adecuados por su simplicidad de programación y su eficacia para el control de este tipo de variables. Para la evaluación del comportamiento del sistema son expuestas simulaciones mediante el software Matlab y Simulink determinando por tanto las mejores estrategias para desarrollar el control PID, así como los posibles resultados del proceso. En cuanto al sistema de calentamiento de los fluidos, es empleado un elemento resistor calentador, cuya potencia es controlada mediante un circuito electrónico compuesto por un detector de cruce por cero de la onda AC de alimentación y un sistema formado por un elemento TRIAC y su circuito de accionamiento. De manera análoga se expone el sistema de instrumentación para la presión de los gases en el circuito, variable que oscila en valores próximos a 3 atmosferas, para ello es empleado un sensor de presión con salida en corriente mediante bucle 4-20 mA, y un convertidor simple corriente a tensión para la entrada al sistema de adquisición de datos. Consecuentemente se presenta el esquema y componentes necesarios para la canalización, calentamiento y humidificación de los gases empleados en el proceso así como la situación de los sensores y actuadores. Por último el trabajo expone la relación de algoritmos desarrollados y un apéndice con información relativa al software Labview. ABTRACT This document presents a study about the operation and applications of PEM fuel cells (Proton exchange membrane fuel cells), fed with pure hydrogen and oxygen obtained from compressed air. Having evaluated the process of these cells and the variables involved on it, such as pressure, humidity and temperature, there is a variety of methods for implementing their control and to set up them around optimal values for greater efficiency in the process. Taking as primary process variable the temperature, and exposing its correct values around 80 degrees centigrade, between which must be placed, is carried out a model of the heating process and the temperature evolution related with the resistive heater power on the complex frequency domain, and is implemented a measuring system with thermocouple sensor type K performing a almost linear response. The differential signal measured by the sensor is amplified through INA2126 instrumentation amplifiers, and is developed a cold junction error correction algorithm (error produced by the inclusion of additional metals of connectors on the thermocouple effect). Data from the test concerning the temperature measurement system are included , including deviations or error regarding the ideal values of measurement. For data acquisition and implementation of control algorithms, is used a PC with LabVIEW software from National Instruments, which makes programming intuitive, versatile, visual, and useful to perform simple user interfaces. The connection between the instrumentation and control hardware of the cell and the PC interface is via a USB data acquisition NI 6800 that has a large number of analog inputs and outputs. Once stored the samples of the measured signal, and correct the error noted above junction, is implemented a software controller PID (proportional-integral-derivative), which is presented as one of the best methods for their programming simplicity and effectiveness for the control of such variables. To evaluate the performance of the system are presented simulations using Matlab and Simulink software thereby determining the best strategies to develop PID control, and possible outcomes of the process. As fluid heating system, is employed a heater resistor element whose power is controlled by an electronic circuit comprising a zero crossing detector of the AC power wave and a system consisting of a Triac and its drive circuit. As made with temperature variable it is developed an instrumentation system for gas pressure in the circuit, variable ranging in values around 3 atmospheres, it is employed a pressure sensor with a current output via 4-20 mA loop, and a single current to voltage converter to adequate the input to the data acquisition system. Consequently is developed the scheme and components needed for circulation, heating and humidification of the gases used in the process as well as the location of sensors and actuators. Finally the document presents the list of algorithms and an appendix with information about Labview software.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.