Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

Comparasion of road traffic emission models in Madrid (Spain)

Many cities in Europe have difficulties to meet the air quality standards set by the European legislation, most particularly the annual mean Limit Value for NO2. Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas and therefore, there is an increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions as accurately as possible. As a consequence, a number of specific emission models and emission factors databases have been developed recently. They present important methodological differences and may result in largely diverging emission figures and thus may lead to alternative policy recommendations. This study compares two approaches to estimate road traffic emissions in Madrid (Spain): the COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT4 v.8.1) and the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1), representative of the ‘average-speed’ and ‘traffic situation’ model types respectively. The input information (e.g. fleet composition, vehicle kilometres travelled, traffic intensity, road type, etc.) was provided by the traffic model developed by the Madrid City Council along with observations from field campaigns. Hourly emissions were computed for nearly 15 000 road segments distributed in 9 management areas covering the Madrid city and surroundings. Total annual NOX emissions predicted by HBEFA were a 21% higher than those of COPERT. The discrepancies for NO2 were lower (13%) since resulting average NO2/NOX ratios are lower for HBEFA. The larger differences are related to diesel vehicle emissions under “stop & go” traffic conditions, very common in distributor/secondary roads of the Madrid metropolitan area. In order to understand the representativeness of these results, the resulting emissions were integrated in an urban scale inventory used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system (1 km2 resolution). Modelled NO2 concentrations were compared with observations through a series of statistics. Although there are no remarkable differences between both model runs, the results suggest that HBEFA may overestimate traffic emissions. However, the results are strongly influenced by methodological issues and limitations of the traffic model. This study was useful to provide a first alternative estimate to the official emission inventory in Madrid and to identify the main features of the traffic model that should be improved to support the application of an emission system based on “real world” emission factors.

Optimización de la Exactitud Geométrica al Integrar Diversas Fuentes de Datos en Proyectos de Inventario Forestal Basados en Escaneo Laser Aerotransportado=Optimizing Geometric Accuracy in Data Source Integration for Airborne Laser Scanning-based Forest Inventory Projects

La mayoría de las aplicaciones forestales del escaneo laser aerotransportado (ALS, del inglés airborne laser scanning) requieren la integración y uso simultaneo de diversas fuentes de datos, con el propósito de conseguir diversos objetivos. Los proyectos basados en sensores remotos normalmente consisten en aumentar la escala de estudio progresivamente a lo largo de varias fases de fusión de datos: desde la información más detallada obtenida sobre un área limitada (la parcela de campo), hasta una respuesta general de la cubierta forestal detectada a distancia de forma más incierta pero cubriendo un área mucho más amplia (la extensión cubierta por el vuelo o el satélite). Todas las fuentes de datos necesitan en ultimo termino basarse en las tecnologías de sistemas de navegación global por satélite (GNSS, del inglés global navigation satellite systems), las cuales son especialmente erróneas al operar por debajo del dosel forestal. Otras etapas adicionales de procesamiento, como la ortorectificación, también pueden verse afectadas por la presencia de vegetación, deteriorando la exactitud de las coordenadas de referencia de las imágenes ópticas. Todos estos errores introducen ruido en los modelos, ya que los predictores se desplazan de la posición real donde se sitúa su variable respuesta. El grado por el que las estimaciones forestales se ven afectadas depende de la dispersión espacial de las variables involucradas, y también de la escala utilizada en cada caso. Esta tesis revisa las fuentes de error posicional que pueden afectar a los diversos datos de entrada involucrados en un proyecto de inventario forestal basado en teledetección ALS, y como las propiedades del dosel forestal en sí afecta a su magnitud, aconsejando en consecuencia métodos para su reducción. También se incluye una discusión sobre las formas más apropiadas de medir exactitud y precisión en cada caso, y como los errores de posicionamiento de hecho afectan a la calidad de las estimaciones, con vistas a una planificación eficiente de la adquisición de los datos. La optimización final en el posicionamiento GNSS y de la radiometría del sensor óptico permitió detectar la importancia de este ultimo en la predicción de la desidad relativa de un bosque monoespecífico de Pinus sylvestris L. ABSTRACT Most forestry applications of airborne laser scanning (ALS) require the integration and simultaneous use of various data sources, pursuing a variety of different objectives. Projects based on remotely-sensed data generally consist in upscaling data fusion stages: from the most detailed information obtained for a limited area (field plot) to a more uncertain forest response sensed over a larger extent (airborne and satellite swath). All data sources ultimately rely on global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), which are especially error-prone when operating under forest canopies. Other additional processing stages, such as orthorectification, may as well be affected by vegetation, hence deteriorating the accuracy of optical imagery’s reference coordinates. These errors introduce noise to the models, as predictors displace from their corresponding response. The degree to which forest estimations are affected depends on the spatial dispersion of the variables involved and the scale used. This thesis reviews the sources of positioning errors which may affect the different inputs involved in an ALS-assisted forest inventory project, and how the properties of the forest canopy itself affects their magnitude, advising on methods for diminishing them. It is also discussed how accuracy should be assessed, and how positioning errors actually affect forest estimation, toward a cost-efficient planning for data acquisition. The final optimization in positioning the GNSS and optical image allowed to detect the importance of the latter in predicting relative density in a monospecific Pinus sylvestris L. forest.