Evidence for a disaggregation of the universe.

Combining the kinematical definitions of the two dimensionless parameters, the deceleration q(x) and the Hubble t 0 H(x), we get a differential equation (where x=t/t 0 is the age of the universe relative to its present value t 0). First integration gives the function H(x). The present values of the Hubble parameter H(1) [approximately t 0 H(1)≈1], and the deceleration parameter [approximately q(1)≈−0.5], determine the function H(x). A second integration gives the cosmological scale factor a(x). Differentiation of a(x) gives the speed of expansion of the universe. The evolution of the universe that results from our approach is: an initial extremely fast exponential expansion (inflation), followed by an almost linear expansion (first decelerated, and later accelerated). For the future, at approximately t≈3t 0 there is a final exponential expansion, a second inflation that produces a disaggregation of the universe to infinity. We find the necessary and sufficient conditions for this disaggregation to occur. The precise value of the final age is given only with one parameter: the present value of the deceleration parameter [q(1)≈−0.5]. This emerging picture of the history of the universe represents an important challenge, an opportunity for the immediate research on the Universe. These conclusions have been elaborated without the use of any particular cosmological model of the universe

Red Eléctrica de España uses integer programming for annual salary revisions

In this paper, we present a mixed-integer linear programming model for determining salary-revision matrices for an organization based on that organization?s general strategies. The solution obtained from this model consists of salary increases for each employee; these increases consider the employee?s professional performance, salary level relative to peers within the organization, and professional group. In addition to budget constraints, we modeled other elements typical of compensation systems, such as equity and justice. Red Eléctrica de España (REE), the transmission agent and operator of the Spanish electricity system, used the model to revise its 2010 and 2011 salary policies, and achieved results that were aligned with the company strategy. REE incorporated the model into the salary management module within its information system, and plans to continue to use the model in revisions of the module.

Managing daily surgery schedules in a teaching hospital: a mixed-integer optimization approach

Background: This study examined the daily surgical scheduling problem in a teaching hospital. This problem relates to the use of multiple operating rooms and different types of surgeons in a typical surgical day with deterministic operation durations (preincision, incision, and postincision times). Teaching hospitals play a key role in the health-care system; however, existing models assume that the duration of surgery is independent of the surgeon's skills. This problem has not been properly addressed in other studies. We analyze the case of a Spanish public hospital, in which continuous pressures and budgeting reductions entail the more efficient use of resources. Methods: To obtain an optimal solution for this problem, we developed a mixed-integer programming model and user-friendly interface that facilitate the scheduling of planned operations for the following surgical day. We also implemented a simulation model to assist the evaluation of different dispatching policies for surgeries and surgeons. The typical aspects we took into account were the type of surgeon, potential overtime, idling time of surgeons, and the use of operating rooms. Results: It is necessary to consider the expertise of a given surgeon when formulating a schedule: such skill can decrease the probability of delays that could affect subsequent surgeries or cause cancellation of the final surgery. We obtained optimal solutions for a set of given instances, which we obtained through surgical information related to acceptable times collected from a Spanish public hospital. Conclusions: We developed a computer-aided framework with a user-friendly interface for use by a surgical manager that presents a 3-D simulation of the problem. Additionally, we obtained an efficient formulation for this complex problem. However, the spread of this kind of operation research in Spanish public health hospitals will take a long time since there is a lack of knowledge of the beneficial techniques and possibilities that operational research can offer for the health-care system.

Contribution of re-regulation reservoirs considering pumping capability to environmentally friendly hydropower operation

Environmental constraints imposed on hydropoweroperation are usually given in the form of minimum environmental flows and maximum and minimum rates of change of flows, or ramp rates. One solution proposed to mitigate the environmental impact caused by the flows discharged by a hydropower plant while reducing the economic impact of the above-mentioned constraints consists in building a re-regulationreservoir, or afterbay, downstream of the power plant. Adding pumpingcapability between the re-regulationreservoir and the main one could contribute both to reducing the size of the re-regulationreservoir, with the consequent environmental improvement, and to improving the economic feasibility of the project, always fulfilling the environmental constraints imposed to hydropoweroperation. The objective of this paper is studying the contribution of a re-regulationreservoir to fulfilling the environmental constraints while reducing the economic impact of said constraints. For that purpose, a revenue-driven optimization model based on mixed integer linear programming is used. Additionally, the advantages of adding pumpingcapability are analysed. In order to illustrate the applicability of the methodology, a case study based on a real hydropower plant is presented

The Ciao clp(FD) library. A modular CLP extension for Prolog

We present a new free library for Constraint Logic Programming over Finite Domains, included with the Ciao Prolog system. The library is entirely written in Prolog, leveraging on Ciao's module system and code transformation capabilities in order to achieve a highly modular design without compromising performance. We describe the interface, implementation, and design rationale of each modular component. The library meets several design goals: a high level of modularity, allowing the individual components to be replaced by different versions; highefficiency, being competitive with other TT> implementations; a glass-box approach, so the user can specify new constraints at different levels; and a Prolog implementation, in order to ease the integration with Ciao's code analysis components. The core is built upon two small libraries which implement integer ranges and closures. On top of that, a finite domain variable datatype is defined, taking care of constraint reexecution depending on range changes. These three libraries form what we call the TT> kernel of the library. This TT> kernel is used in turn to implement several higher-level finite domain constraints, specified using indexicals. Together with a labeling module this layer forms what we name the TT> solver. A final level integrates the CLP (J7©) paradigm with our TT> solver. This is achieved using attributed variables and a compiler from the CLP (J7©) language to the set of constraints provided by the solver. It should be noted that the user of the library is encouraged to work in any of those levels as seen convenient: from writing a new range module to enriching the set of TT> constraints by writing new indexicals.

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain).

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

Electrostatic plasma instabilities excited by a high‐frequency electric field

The electrostatic plasma waves excited by a uniform, alternating electric field of arbitrary intensity are studied on the basis of the Vlasov equation; their dispersion relation, which involves the determinant of either of two infinite matrices, is derived. For ω0 ≫ ωpi (ω0 being the applied frequency and ωpi the ion plasma frequency) the waves may be classified in two groups, each satisfying a simple condition; this allows writing the dispersion relation in closed form. Both groups coalesce (resonance) if (a) ω0  ≈  ωpe/r (r any integer) and (b) the wavenumber k is small. A nonoscillatory instability is found; its distinction from the DuBois‐Goldman instability and its physical origin are discussed. Conditions for its excitation (in particular, upper limits to ω0,k, and k⋅vE,vE being the field‐induced electron velocity), and simple equations for the growth rate are given off‐resonance and at ω0  ≈  ωpi. The dependence of both threshold and maximum growth rate on various parameters is discussed, and the results are compared with those of Silin and Nishikawa. The threshold at ω0  ≈  ωpi/r,r  ≠  1, is studied.

SLBN: A Scalable Max-min Fair Algorithm for Rate-Based Explicit Congestion Control

The growth of the Internet has increased the need for scalable congestion control mechanisms in high speed networks. In this context, we propose a rate-based explicit congestion control mechanism with which the sources are provided with the rate at which they can transmit. These rates are computed with a distributed max-min fair algorithm, SLBN. The novelty of SLBN is that it combines two interesting features not simultaneously present in existing proposals: scalability and fast convergence to the max-min fair rates, even under high session churn. SLBN is scalable because routers only maintain a constant amount of state information (only three integer variables per link) and only incur a constant amount of computation per protocol packet, independently of the number of sessions that cross the router. Additionally, SLBN does not require processing any data packet, and it converges independently of sessions' RTT. Finally, by design, the protocol is conservative when assigning rates, even in the presence of high churn, which helps preventing link overshoots in transient periods. We claim that, with all these features, our mechanism is a good candidate to be used in real deployments.

Almost rejectionless sampling from Nakagami-m distributions (m ≥ 1)

The Nakagami-m distribution is widely used for the simulation of fading channels in wireless communications. A novel, simple and extremely efficient acceptance-rejection algorithm is introduced for the generation of independent Nakagami-m random variables. The proposed method uses another Nakagami density with a half-integer value of the fading parameter, mp ¼ n/2 ≤ m, as proposal function, from which samples can be drawn exactly and easily. This novel rejection technique is able to work with arbitrary values of m ≥ 1, average path energy, V, and provides a higher acceptance rate than all currently available methods. RESUMEN. Método extremadamente eficiente para generar variables aleatorias de Nakagami (utilizadas para modelar el desvanecimiento en canales de comunicaciones móviles) basado en "rejection sampling".

Tips and tricks about financial ratios: how to anticipate unpleasant surprises

Following recent accounting and ethical scandals within the Telecom Industry like Gowex case, old cards are laid on the table: what kind of management and control are we doing on our businesses and what use do we give to the specific tools we have at our disposition? There are indicators, that on a very specific, concise and accurate manner, aside from brief, allow us to analyze and capture the complexity of a business and also they constitute an important support when making optimal decisions. These instruments or indicators show, a priori, all relevant data from a purely economic perspective, while there also exist, the possibility of including factors that are not of this nature strictly. For instance, there are indicators that take into account the customer?s satisfaction, the corporate reputation among others. Both kind of performance indicators form, together, an integral dashboard while the pure economic side of it could be considered as a basic dashboard. Based on DuPont?s methodology, we will be able to calculate the ROI (Return on Investment) of a company from the disaggregation of very useful and much needed indicators like the ROE (Return on Equity) or the ROA (Return on Assets); thereby, we will be able to get to know, to control and, hence, to optimize the company?s leverage level, its liquidity ratio or its solvency ratio, among others; as well as the yield we will be able to obtain if our decisions and management are optimal related to the bodies of assets. Bear in mind and make the most of the abovementioned management tools and indicators that we have at our disposition, allow us to act knowing our path and taking full responsibility, as well as, to obtain the maximum planned benefits, instead of leaving them to be casual. We will be able to avoid errors that can lead the company to an unfortunate and non-desirable situation and, of course, we will detect, way in advance, the actual needs of the business in terms of accounting and financial sanitation before irreversible situations are reached.

A model for setting services on auxiliary bus lines under congestion

In this paper, a mathematical programming model and a heuristically derived solution is described to assist with the efficient planning of services for a set of auxiliary bus lines (a bus-bridging system) during disruptions of metro and rapid transit lines. The model can be considered static and takes into account the average flows of passengers over a given period of time (i.e., the peak morning traffic hour) Auxiliary bus services must accommodate very high demand levels, and the model presented is able to take into account the operation of a bus-bridging system under congested conditions. A general analysis of the congestion in public transportation lines is presented, and the results are applied to the design of a bus-bridging system. A nonlinear integer mathematical programming model and a suitable approximation of this model are then formulated. This approximated model can be solved by a heuristic procedure that has been shown to be computationally viable. The output of the model is as follows: (a) the number of bus units to assign to each of the candidate lines of the bus-bridging system; (b) the routes to be followed by users passengers of each of the origin–destination pairs; (c) the operational conditions of the components of the bus-bridging system, including the passenger load of each of the line segments, the degree of saturation of the bus stops relative to their bus input flows, the bus service times at bus stops and the passenger waiting times at bus stops. The model is able to take into account bounds with regard to the maximum number of passengers waiting at bus stops and the space available at bus stops for the queueing of bus units. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the model with two realistic test cases: a railway corridor in Madrid and a metro line in Barcelona Planificación de los servicios de lineas auxiliares de autobuses durante las incidencias de las redes de metro y cercanías. El modelo estudia el problema bajo condiciones de alta demanda y condiciones de congestión. El modelo no lineal resultante es resuelto mediante heurísticas que demuestran su utilidad. Se demuestran los resultados en dos corredores de las ciudades de Barcelona y Madrid.

Contribución al diseño de lazos de realimentación electrónica para microsistemas electromecánicos (MEMS) resonantes: ruido de fase generado en lazos osciladores por sus realimentaciones

En 1966, D. B. Leeson publicó el artículo titulado “A simple model of feedback oscillator noise spectrum” en el que, mediante una ecuación obtenida de forma heurística y basada en parámetros conocidos de los osciladores, proponía un modelo para estimar el espectro de potencia que cuantifica el Ruido de Fase de estos osciladores. Este Ruido de Fase pone de manifiesto las fluctuaciones aleatorias que se producen en la fase de la señal de salida de cualquier oscilador de frecuencia f_0. Desde entonces, los adelantos tecnológicos han permitido grandes progresos en cuanto a la medida del Ruido de Fase, llegando a encontrar una estrecha “zona plana”, alrededor de f_0, conocida con el nombre de Ensanchamiento de Línea (EL) que Leeson no llegó a observar y que su modelo empírico no recogía. Paralelamente han ido surgiendo teorías que han tratado de explicar el Ruido de Fase con mayor o menor éxito. En esta Tesis se propone una nueva teoría para explicar el espectro de potencia del Ruido de Fase de un oscilador realimentado y basado en resonador L-C (Inductancia-Capacidad). Al igual que otras teorías, la nuestra también relaciona el Ruido de Fase del oscilador con el ruido térmico del circuito que lo implementa pero, a diferencia de aquellas, nuestra teoría se basa en un Modelo Complejo de ruido eléctrico que considera tanto las Fluctuaciones de energía eléctrica asociadas a la susceptancia capacitiva del resonador como las Disipaciones de energía eléctrica asociadas a su inevitable conductancia G=1⁄R, que dan cuenta del contacto térmico entre el resonador y el entorno térmico que le rodea. En concreto, la nueva teoría que proponemos explica tanto la parte del espectro del Ruido de Fase centrada alrededor de la frecuencia portadora f_0 que hemos llamado EL y su posterior caída proporcional a 〖∆f〗^(-2) al alejarnos de f_0, como la zona plana o pedestal que aparece en el espectro de Ruido de Fase lejos de esa f_0. Además, al saber cuantificar el EL y su origen, podemos explicar con facilidad la aparición de zonas del espectro de Ruido de Fase con caída 〖∆f〗^(-3) cercanas a la portadora y que provienen del denominado “exceso de ruido 1⁄f” de dispositivos de Estado Sólido y del ruido “flicker” de espectro 1⁄f^β (0,8≤β≤1,2) que aparece en dispositivos de vacío como las válvulas termoiónicas. Habiendo mostrado que una parte del Ruido de Fase de osciladores L-C realimentados que hemos denominado Ruido de Fase Térmico, se debe al ruido eléctrico de origen térmico de la electrónica que forma ese oscilador, proponemos en esta Tesis una nueva fuente de Ruido de Fase que hemos llamado Ruido de Fase Técnico, que se añadirá al Térmico y que aparecerá cuando el desfase del lazo a la frecuencia de resonancia f_0 del resonador no sea 0° o múltiplo entero de 360° (Condición Barkhausen de Fase, CBF). En estos casos, la modulación aleatoria de ganancia de lazo que realiza el Control Automático de Amplitud en su lucha contra ruidos que traten de variar la amplitud de la señal oscilante del lazo, producirá a su vez una modulación aleatoria de la frecuencia de tal señal que se observará como más Ruido de Fase añadido al Térmico. Para dar una prueba empírica sobre la existencia de esta nueva fuente de Ruido de Fase, se diseñó y construyó un oscilador en torno a un resonador mecánico “grande” para tener un Ruido de Fase Térmico despreciable a efectos prácticos. En este oscilador se midió su Ruido de Fase Técnico tanto en función del valor del desfase añadido al lazo de realimentación para apartarlo de su CBF, como en función de la perturbación de amplitud inyectada para mostrar sin ambigüedad la aparición de este Ruido de Fase Técnico cuando el lazo tiene este fallo técnico: que no cumple la Condición Barkhausen de Fase a la frecuencia de resonancia f_0 del resonador, por lo que oscila a otra frecuencia. ABSTRACT In 1966, D. B. Leeson published the article titled “A simple model of feedback oscillator noise spectrum” in which, by means of an equation obtained heuristically and based on known parameters of the oscillators, a model was proposed to estimate the power spectrum that quantifies the Phase Noise of these oscillators. This Phase Noise reveals the random fluctuations that are produced in the phase of the output signal from any oscillator of frequencyf_0. Since then, technological advances have allowed significant progress regarding the measurement of Phase Noise. This way, the narrow flat region that has been found around f_(0 ), is known as Line Widening (LW). This region that Leeson could not detect at that time does not appear in his empirical model. After Leeson’s work, different theories have appeared trying to explain the Phase Noise of oscillators. This Thesis proposes a new theory that explains the Phase Noise power spectrum of a feedback oscillator around a resonator L-C (Inductance-Capacity). Like other theories, ours also relates the oscillator Phase Noise to the thermal noise of the feedback circuitry, but departing from them, our theory uses a new, Complex Model for electrical noise that considers both Fluctuations of electrical energy associated with the capacitive susceptance of the resonator and Dissipations of electrical energy associated with its unavoidable conductance G=1/R, which accounts for the thermal contact between the resonator and its surrounding environment (thermal bath). More specifically, the new theory we propose explains both the Phase Noise region of the spectrum centered at the carrier frequency f_0 that we have called LW and shows a region falling as 〖∆f〗^(-2) as we depart from f_0, and the flat zone or pedestal that appears in the Phase Noise spectrum far from f_0. Being able to quantify the LW and its origin, we can easily explain the appearance of Phase Noise spectrum zones with 〖∆f〗^(-3) slope near the carrier that come from the so called “1/f excess noise” in Solid-State devices and “flicker noise” with 1⁄f^β (0,8≤β≤1,2) spectrum that appears in vacuum devices such as thermoionic valves. Having shown that the part of the Phase Noise of L-C oscillators that we have called Thermal Phase Noise is due to the electrical noise of the electronics used in the oscillator, this Thesis can propose a new source of Phase Noise that we have called Technical Phase Noise, which will appear when the loop phase shift to the resonance frequency f_0 is not 0° or an integer multiple of 360° (Barkhausen Phase Condition, BPC). This Phase Noise that will add to the Thermal one, comes from the random modulation of the loop gain carried out by the Amplitude Automatic Control fighting against noises trying to change the amplitude of the oscillating signal in the loop. In this case, the BPC failure gives rise to a random modulation of the frequency of the output signal that will be observed as more Phase Noise added to the Thermal one. To give an empirical proof on the existence of this new source of Phase Noise, an oscillator was designed and constructed around a “big” mechanical resonator whose Thermal Phase Noise is negligible for practical effects. The Technical Phase Noise of this oscillator has been measured with regard to the phase lag added to the feedback loop to separate it from its BPC, and with regard to the amplitude disturbance injected to show without ambiguity the appearance of this Technical Phase Noise that appears when the loop has this technical failure: that it does not fulfill the Barkhausen Phase Condition at f_0, the resonance frequency of the resonator and therefore it is oscillating at a frequency other than f_0.

A proposal for a modular and application-aware autonomic manager of private cloud infrastructures

Recientemente, el paradigma de la computación en la nube ha recibido mucho interés por parte tanto de la industria como del mundo académico. Las infraestructuras cloud públicas están posibilitando nuevos modelos de negocio y ayudando a reducir costes. Sin embargo, una compañía podría desear ubicar sus datos y servicios en sus propias instalaciones, o tener que atenerse a leyes de protección de datos. Estas circunstancias hacen a las infraestructuras cloud privadas ciertamente deseables, ya sea para complementar a las públicas o para sustituirlas por completo. Por desgracia, las carencias en materia de estándares han impedido que las soluciones para la gestión de infraestructuras privadas se hayan desarrollado adecuadamente. Además, la multitud de opciones disponibles ha creado en los clientes el miedo a depender de una tecnología concreta (technology lock-in). Una de las causas de este problema es la falta de alineación entre la investigación académica y los productos comerciales, ya que aquella está centrada en el estudio de escenarios idealizados sin correspondencia con el mundo real, mientras que éstos consisten en soluciones desarrolladas sin tener en cuenta cómo van a encajar con los estándares más comunes o sin preocuparse de hacer públicos sus resultados. Con objeto de resolver este problema, propongo un sistema de gestión modular para infraestructuras cloud privadas enfocado en tratar con las aplicaciones en lugar de centrarse únicamente en los recursos hardware. Este sistema de gestión sigue el paradigma de la computación autónoma y está diseñado en torno a un modelo de información sencillo, desarrollado para ser compatible con los estándares más comunes. Este modelo divide el entorno en dos vistas, que sirven para separar aquello que debe preocupar a cada actor involucrado del resto de información, pero al mismo tiempo permitiendo relacionar el entorno físico con las máquinas virtuales que se despliegan encima de él. En dicho modelo, las aplicaciones cloud están divididas en tres tipos genéricos (Servicios, Trabajos de Big Data y Reservas de Instancias), para que así el sistema de gestión pueda sacar partido de las características propias de cada tipo. El modelo de información está complementado por un conjunto de acciones de gestión atómicas, reversibles e independientes, que determinan las operaciones que se pueden llevar a cabo sobre el entorno y que es usado para hacer posible la escalabilidad en el entorno. También describo un motor de gestión encargado de, a partir del estado del entorno y usando el ya mencionado conjunto de acciones, la colocación de recursos. Está dividido en dos niveles: la capa de Gestores de Aplicación, encargada de tratar sólo con las aplicaciones; y la capa del Gestor de Infraestructura, responsable de los recursos físicos. Dicho motor de gestión obedece un ciclo de vida con dos fases, para así modelar mejor el comportamiento de una infraestructura real. El problema de la colocación de recursos es atacado durante una de las fases (la de consolidación) por un resolutor de programación entera, y durante la otra (la online) por un heurístico hecho ex-profeso. Varias pruebas han demostrado que este acercamiento combinado es superior a otras estrategias. Para terminar, el sistema de gestión está acoplado a arquitecturas de monitorización y de actuadores. Aquella estando encargada de recolectar información del entorno, y ésta siendo modular en su diseño y capaz de conectarse con varias tecnologías y ofrecer varios modos de acceso. ABSTRACT The cloud computing paradigm has raised in popularity within the industry and the academia. Public cloud infrastructures are enabling new business models and helping to reduce costs. However, the desire to host company’s data and services on premises, and the need to abide to data protection laws, make private cloud infrastructures desirable, either to complement or even fully substitute public oferings. Unfortunately, a lack of standardization has precluded private infrastructure management solutions to be developed to a certain level, and a myriad of diferent options have induced the fear of lock-in in customers. One of the causes of this problem is the misalignment between academic research and industry ofering, with the former focusing in studying idealized scenarios dissimilar from real-world situations, and the latter developing solutions without taking care about how they f t with common standards, or even not disseminating their results. With the aim to solve this problem I propose a modular management system for private cloud infrastructures that is focused on the applications instead of just the hardware resources. This management system follows the autonomic system paradigm, and is designed around a simple information model developed to be compatible with common standards. This model splits the environment in two views that serve to separate the concerns of the stakeholders while at the same time enabling the traceability between the physical environment and the virtual machines deployed onto it. In it, cloud applications are classifed in three broad types (Services, Big Data Jobs and Instance Reservations), in order for the management system to take advantage of each type’s features. The information model is paired with a set of atomic, reversible and independent management actions which determine the operations that can be performed over the environment and is used to realize the cloud environment’s scalability. From the environment’s state and using the aforementioned set of actions, I also describe a management engine tasked with the resource placement. It is divided in two tiers: the Application Managers layer, concerned just with applications; and the Infrastructure Manager layer, responsible of the actual physical resources. This management engine follows a lifecycle with two phases, to better model the behavior of a real infrastructure. The placement problem is tackled during one phase (consolidation) by using an integer programming solver, and during the other (online) with a custom heuristic. Tests have demonstrated that this combined approach is superior to other strategies. Finally, the management system is paired with monitoring and actuators architectures. The former able to collect the necessary information from the environment, and the later modular in design and capable of interfacing with several technologies and ofering several access interfaces.

A management model for closed-loop supply chains of reusable articles

This PhD dissertation is framed in the emergent fields of Reverse Logistics and ClosedLoop Supply Chain (CLSC) management. This subarea of supply chain management has gained researchers and practitioners' attention over the last 15 years to become a fully recognized subdiscipline of the Operations Management field. More specifically, among all the activities that are included within the CLSC area, the focus of this dissertation is centered in direct reuse aspects. The main contribution of this dissertation to current knowledge is twofold. First, a framework for the so-called reuse CLSC is developed. This conceptual model is grounded in a set of six case studies conducted by the author in real industrial settings. The model has also been contrasted with existing literature and with academic and professional experts on the topic as well. The framework encompasses four building blocks. In the first block, a typology for reusable articles is put forward, distinguishing between Returnable Transport Items (RTI), Reusable Packaging Materials (RPM), and Reusable Products (RP). In the second block, the common characteristics that render reuse CLSC difficult to manage from a logistical standpoint are identified, namely: fleet shrinkage, significant investment and limited visibility. In the third block, the main problems arising in the management of reuse CLSC are analyzed, such as: (1) define fleet size dimension, (2) control cycle time and promote articles rotation, (3) control return rate and prevent shrinkage, (4) define purchase policies for new articles, (5) plan and control reconditioning activities, and (6) balance inventory between depots. Finally, in the fourth block some solutions to those issues are developed. Firstly, problems (2) and (3) are addressed through the comparative analysis of alternative strategies for controlling cycle time and return rate. Secondly, a methodology for calculating the required fleet size is elaborated (problem (1)). This methodology is valid for different configurations of the physical flows in the reuse CLSC. Likewise, some directions are pointed out for further development of a similar method for defining purchase policies for new articles (problem (4)). The second main contribution of this dissertation is embedded in the solutions part (block 4) of the conceptual framework and comprises a two-level decision problem integrating two mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models that have been formulated and solved to optimality using AIMMS as modeling language, CPLEX as solver and Excel spreadsheet for data introduction and output presentation. The results obtained are analyzed in order to measure in a client-supplier system the economic impact of two alternative control strategies (recovery policies) in the context of reuse. In addition, the models support decision-making regarding the selection of the appropriate recovery policy against the characteristics of demand pattern and the structure of the relevant costs in the system. The triangulation of methods used in this thesis has enabled to address the same research topic with different approaches and thus, the robustness of the results obtained is strengthened.

Modelo de gestión de un embalse en tiempo real durante avenidas basado en redes bayesianas entrenadas con el método de optimización PLEM

En la actualidad, la gestión de embalses para el control de avenidas se realiza, comúnmente, utilizando modelos de simulación. Esto se debe, principalmente, a su facilidad de uso en tiempo real por parte del operador de la presa. Se han desarrollado modelos de optimización de la gestión del embalse que, aunque mejoran los resultados de los modelos de simulación, su aplicación en tiempo real se hace muy difícil o simplemente inviable, pues está limitada al conocimiento de la avenida futura que entra al embalse antes de tomar la decisión de vertido. Por esta razón, se ha planteado el objetivo de desarrollar un modelo de gestión de embalses en avenidas que incorpore las ventajas de un modelo de optimización y que sea de fácil uso en tiempo real por parte del gestor de la presa. Para ello, se construyó un modelo de red Bayesiana que representa los procesos de la cuenca vertiente y del embalse y, que aprende de casos generados sintéticamente mediante un modelo hidrológico agregado y un modelo de optimización de la gestión del embalse. En una primera etapa, se generó un gran número de episodios sintéticos de avenida utilizando el método de Monte Carlo, para obtener las lluvias, y un modelo agregado compuesto de transformación lluvia- escorrentía, para obtener los hidrogramas de avenida. Posteriormente, se utilizaron las series obtenidas como señales de entrada al modelo de gestión de embalses PLEM, que optimiza una función objetivo de costes mediante programación lineal entera mixta, generando igual número de eventos óptimos de caudal vertido y de evolución de niveles en el embalse. Los episodios simulados fueron usados para entrenar y evaluar dos modelos de red Bayesiana, uno que pronostica el caudal de entrada al embalse, y otro que predice el caudal vertido, ambos en un horizonte de tiempo que va desde una a cinco horas, en intervalos de una hora. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidrológica, el caudal de entrada que se elige es el promedio de la distribución de probabilidad de pronóstico. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidráulica, debido al comportamiento marcadamente no lineal de este proceso y a que la red Bayesiana devuelve un rango de posibles valores de caudal vertido, se ha desarrollado una metodología para seleccionar un único valor, que facilite el trabajo del operador de la presa. Esta metodología consiste en probar diversas estrategias propuestas, que incluyen zonificaciones y alternativas de selección de un único valor de caudal vertido en cada zonificación, a un conjunto suficiente de episodios sintéticos. Los resultados de cada estrategia se compararon con el método MEV, seleccionándose las estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV, en cuanto al caudal máximo vertido y el nivel máximo alcanzado por el embalse, cualquiera de las cuales puede usarse por el operador de la presa en tiempo real para el embalse de estudio (Talave). La metodología propuesta podría aplicarse a cualquier embalse aislado y, de esta manera, obtener, para ese embalse particular, diversas estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV. Finalmente, a modo de ejemplo, se ha aplicado la metodología a una avenida sintética, obteniendo el caudal vertido y el nivel del embalse en cada intervalo de tiempo, y se ha aplicado el modelo MIGEL para obtener en cada instante la configuración de apertura de los órganos de desagüe que evacuarán el caudal. Currently, the dam operator for the management of dams uses simulation models during flood events, mainly due to its ease of use in real time. Some models have been developed to optimize the management of the reservoir to improve the results of simulation models. However, real-time application becomes very difficult or simply unworkable, because the decision to discharge depends on the unknown future avenue entering the reservoir. For this reason, the main goal is to develop a model of reservoir management at avenues that incorporates the advantages of an optimization model. At the same time, it should be easy to use in real-time by the dam manager. For this purpose, a Bayesian network model has been developed to represent the processes of the watershed and reservoir. This model learns from cases generated synthetically by a hydrological model and an optimization model for managing the reservoir. In a first stage, a large number of synthetic flood events was generated using the Monte Carlo method, for rain, and rain-added processing model composed of runoff for the flood hydrographs. Subsequently, the series obtained were used as input signals to the reservoir management model PLEM that optimizes a target cost function using mixed integer linear programming. As a result, many optimal discharge rate events and water levels in the reservoir levels were generated. The simulated events were used to train and test two models of Bayesian network. The first one predicts the flow into the reservoir, and the second predicts the discharge flow. They work in a time horizon ranging from one to five hours, in intervals of an hour. In the case of hydrological Bayesian network, the chosen inflow is the average of the probability distribution forecast. In the case of hydraulic Bayesian network the highly non-linear behavior of this process results on a range of possible values of discharge flow. A methodology to select a single value has been developed to facilitate the dam operator work. This methodology tests various strategies proposed. They include zoning and alternative selection of a single value in each discharge rate zoning from a sufficient set of synthetic episodes. The results of each strategy are compared with the MEV method. The strategies that improve the outcomes of MEV are selected and can be used by the dam operator in real time applied to the reservoir study case (Talave). The methodology could be applied to any single reservoir and, thus, obtain, for the particular reservoir, various strategies that improve results from MEV. Finally, the methodology has been applied to a synthetic flood, obtaining the discharge flow and the reservoir level in each time interval. The open configuration floodgates to evacuate the flow at each interval have been obtained applying the MIGEL model.