A method to incorporate the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on multivariate analyses of ecological data

Researchers in ecology commonly use multivariate analyses (e.g. redundancy analysis, canonical correspondence analysis, Mantel correlation, multivariate analysis of variance) to interpret patterns in biological data and relate these patterns to environmental predictors. There has been, however, little recognition of the errors associated with biological data and the influence that these may have on predictions derived from ecological hypotheses. We present a permutational method that assesses the effects of taxonomic uncertainty on the multivariate analyses typically used in the analysis of ecological data. The procedure is based on iterative randomizations that randomly re-assign non identified species in each site to any of the other species found in the remaining sites. After each re-assignment of species identities, the multivariate method at stake is run and a parameter of interest is calculated. Consequently, one can estimate a range of plausible values for the parameter of interest under different scenarios of re-assigned species identities. We demonstrate the use of our approach in the calculation of two parameters with an example involving tropical tree species from western Amazonia: 1) the Mantel correlation between compositional similarity and environmental distances between pairs of sites, and; 2) the variance explained by environmental predictors in redundancy analysis (RDA). We also investigated the effects of increasing taxonomic uncertainty (i.e. number of unidentified species), and the taxonomic resolution at which morphospecies are determined (genus-resolution, family-resolution, or fully undetermined species) on the uncertainty range of these parameters. To achieve this, we performed simulations on a tree dataset from southern Mexico by randomly selecting a portion of the species contained in the dataset and classifying them as unidentified at each level of decreasing taxonomic resolution. An analysis of covariance showed that both taxonomic uncertainty and resolution significantly influence the uncertainty range of the resulting parameters. Increasing taxonomic uncertainty expands our uncertainty of the parameters estimated both in the Mantel test and RDA. The effects of increasing taxonomic resolution, however, are not as evident. The method presented in this study improves the traditional approaches to study compositional change in ecological communities by accounting for some of the uncertainty inherent to biological data. We hope that this approach can be routinely used to estimate any parameter of interest obtained from compositional data tables when faced with taxonomic uncertainty.

A Comparison of different Uncertainty Activation Cross-Section Data Libraries: Application to the Prediction Uncertainty in Tritium Production

T actitivity in LiPb LiPb mock-up material irradiated in Frascati: measurement and MCNP results

A Comparison of Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methodologies for the Tritium Production in the HFTM/IFMIF Specimen Cells and measurements in Tritium activity in HCLL TBM mock-up LiPb

The prediction of the tritium production is required for handling procedures of samples, safety&maintenance and licensing of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF).

A Comparison of different Uncertainty Activation Cross-Section Data Libraries and collapsed values for different neutron spectra: ADS, FISSION and FUSION

PART I:Cross-section uncertainties under differentneutron spectra. PART II: Processing uncertainty libraries

Uncertainty assessment methodologies applied to Tritium production in fusion lithium breeding blankets

- Need of Tritium production - Neutronic objectives - The Frascati experiment - Measurements of Tritium activity

Burnup Uncertainty Analysis for PWR-HFP Exercise I-1

Burn-up credit analyses are based on depletion calculations that provide an accurate prediction of spent fuel isotopic contents, followed by criticality calculations to assess keff

Analysis of Different Uncertainty Activation Cross Section Data Libraries for LWR, ads and demo Neutron Spectra

This work is aimed to present the main differences of nuclear data uncertainties among three different nuclear data libraries: EAF-2007, EAF-2010 and SCALE-6.0, under different neutron spectra: LWR, ADS and DEMO (fusion)

Isotopic uncertainty assessment due to nuclear data uncertainties in high-burnup samples.

The accurate prediction of the spent nuclear fuel content is essential for its safe and optimized transportation, storage and management. This isotopic evolution can be predicted using powerful codes and methodologies throughout irradiation as well as cooling time periods. However, in order to have a realistic confidence level in the prediction of spent fuel isotopic content, it is desirable to determine how uncertainties affect isotopic prediction calculations by quantifying their associated uncertainties.

Uncertainty methods inactivation and inventory calculations

For a number of important nuclides, complete activation data libraries with covariance data will be produced, so that uncertainty propagation in fuel cycle codes (in this case ACAB,FISPIN, ...) can be developed and tested. Eventually, fuel inventory codes should be able to handle the complete set of uncertainty data, i.e. those of nuclear reactions (cross sections, etc.), radioactive decay and fission yield data. For this, capabilities will be developed both to produce covariance data and to propagate the uncertainties through the inventory calculations.

Reduction in Calculated Uncertainty of a Noise Map by Improving the Traffic Model Data Through Two Phases

The influence of applying European default traffic values to the making of a noise map was evaluated in a typical environment like Palma de Mallorca. To assess these default traffic values, a first model has been created and compared with measured noise levels. Subsequently a second traffic model, improving the input data used for the first one, has been created and validated according to the deviations. Different methodologies were also examined for collecting model input data that would be of higher quality, by analysing the improvement generated in the reduction in the uncertainty of the noise map introduced by the road traffic noise emission

Multi-agent Architecture for Heterogeneous Reasoning under Uncertainty Combining MSBN and Ontologies in Distributed Network Diagnosis

This article proposes a MAS architecture for network diagnosis under uncertainty. Network diagnosis is divided into two inference processes: hypothesis generation and hypothesis confirmation. The first process is distributed among several agents based on a MSBN, while the second one is carried out by agents using semantic reasoning. A diagnosis ontology has been defined in order to combine both inference processes. To drive the deliberation process, dynamic data about the influence of observations are taken during diagnosis process. In order to achieve quick and reliable diagnoses, this influence is used to choose the best action to perform. This approach has been evaluated in a P2P video streaming scenario. Computational and time improvements are highlight as conclusions.

Influence of loudspeaker directivity on the measurement uncertainty

One of the most significant aspects of a building’s acoustic behavior is the airborne sound insulation of the room façades, since this determines the protection of its inhabitants against environmental noise. For this reason, authorities in most countries have established in their acoustic regulations for buildings the minimum value of sound insulation that must be respected for façades. In order to verify compliance with legal requirements it is usual to perform acoustic measurements in the finished buildings and then compare the measurement results with the established limits. Since there is always a certain measurement uncertainty, this uncertainty must be calculated and taken into account in order to ensure compliance with specifications. The most commonly used method for measuring sound insulation on façades is the so-called Global Loudspeaker Method, specified in ISO 140-5:1998. This method uses a loudspeaker placed outside the building as a sound source. The loudspeaker directivity has a significant influence on the measurement results, and these results may change noticeably by choosing different loudspeakers, even though they all fulfill the directivity requirements of ISO 140-5. This work analyzes the influence of the loudspeaker directivity on the results of façade sound insulation measurement, and determines its contribution to measurement uncertainty. The theoretical analysis is experimentally validated by means of an intermediate precision test according to ISO 5725-3:1994, which compares the values of sound insulation obtained for a façade using various loudspeakers with different directivities

Considerations in Determining the Cost of Measurement Uncertainty Associated with Dimensional Tolerances Verification

The verification of compliance with a design specification in manufacturing requires the use of metrological instruments to check if the magnitude associated with the design specification is or not according with tolerance range. Such instrumentation and their use during the measurement process, has associated an uncertainty of measurement whose value must be related to the value of tolerance tested. Most papers dealing jointly tolerance and measurement uncertainties are mainly focused on the establishment of a relationship uncertainty-tolerance without paying much attention to the impact from the standpoint of process cost. This paper analyzes the cost-measurement uncertainty, considering uncertainty as a productive factor in the process outcome. This is done starting from a cost-tolerance model associated with the process. By means of this model the existence of a measurement uncertainty is calculated in quantitative terms of cost and its impact on the process is analyzed.

Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Analysis of different uncertainty activation cross section data libraries for LWR, ADS and DEMO neutron spectra

This work is aimed to present the main differences of nuclear data uncertainties among three different nuclear data libraries: EAF-2007, EAF-2010 and SCALE-6.0, under different neutron spectra: LWR, ADS and DEMO (fusion). To take into account the neutron spectrum, the uncertainty data are collapsed to onegroup. That is a simple way to see the differences among libraries for one application. Also, the neutron spectrum effect on different applications can be observed. These comparisons are presented only for (n,fission), (n,gamma) and (n,p) reactions, for the main transuranic isotopes (234,235,236,238U, 237Np, 238,239,240,241Pu, 241,242m,243Am, 242,243,244,245,246,247,248Cm, 249Bk, 249,250,251,252Cf). But also general comparisons among libraries are presented taking into account all included isotopes. In other works, target accuracies are presented for nuclear data uncertainties; here, these targets are compared with uncertainties on the above libraries. The main results of these comparisons are that EAF-2010 has reduced their uncertainties for many isotopes from EAF-2007 for (n,gamma) and (n,fission) but not for (n,p); SCALE-6.0 gives lower uncertainties for (n,fission) reactions for ADS and PWR applications, but gives higher uncertainties for (n,p) reactions in all applications. For the (n,gamma) reaction, the amount of isotopes which have higher uncertainties is quite similar to the amount of isotopes which have lower uncertainties when SCALE-6.0 and EAF-2010 are compared. When the effect of neutron spectra is analysed, the ADS neutron spectrum obtained the highest uncertainties for (n,gamma) and (n,fission) reactions of all libraries.