Análisis del sector y mercado gasista nacional e internacional. : el Hub ibérico y su adaptación al sistema español

Actualmente existe un gran interés orientado hacia el mercado del gas natural. Son muchas las razones por las que este combustible se posiciona como uno de los más importantes dentro del panorama energético mundial. Además de que salvaría el hueco dejado por el carbón y el petróleo, supone una alternativa mucho más limpia que se podría desarrollar aún más tanto a nivel doméstico, industrial como en el mundo de los transportes. La industria del gas natural está cambiando rápidamente fundamentalmente por la aparición del gas no convencional y sus técnicas de extracción. Por lo que se está produciendo un cambio en la economía de la producción de gas así como en la dinámica y los movimientos del GNL a lo largo de todo el planeta. El propósito de este estudio es enfocar el estado del sector y mercado del gas natural en todo el mundo y de esta forma subrayar las principales regiones que marcan la tendencia general de los precios de todo el planeta. Además, este trabajo reflejará los pronósticos esperados para los próximos años así como un resumen de las tendencias que se han seguido hasta el momento. Particularmente, se centrará la atención en el movimiento hacia los sistemas basados en forma de hub que comenzaron en EE.UU. y que llegaron a Reino Unido y al continente Europeo a principios del S.XX. Esta tendencia es la que se pretende implantar en España con el fin de conseguir una mayor competitividad, flexibilidad y liquidez en los precios y en el sistema gasista. De esta forma, poco a poco se irá construyendo la estructura hacia un Mercado Único Europeo que es el objetivo final que plantean los organismos de los estados miembros. Sin embargo, para la puesta en marcha de este nuevo modelo es necesario realizar una serie de cambios en el sistema como la modificación de la Ley de Hidrocarburos, la designación de un Operador de Mercado, elaboración de una serie de reglas para regular el mercado así como fomentar la liquidez del mercado. Cuando tenga lugar el cambio regulatorio, la liquidez del sistema español incrementará y se dará la oportunidad de crear nuevas formas para balancear las carteras de gas y establecer nuevas estrategias para gestionar el riesgo. No obstante, antes de que se hagan efectivos los cambios en la legislación, se implantaría uno de los modelos planteados en el “Gas Target Model”, el denominado “Modelo de Asignación de Capacidad Implícita”. La introducción de este modelo sería un primer paso para la integración de un mercado de gas sin la necesidad de afrontar un cambio legislativo, lo que serviría de VIII impulso para alcanzar el “Modelo de Área de Mercado” que sería el mejor para el sistema gasista español y se conectaría ampliamente con el resto de mercados europeos. Las conclusiones del estudio en relación a la formación del nuevo modelo en forma de hub plantean la necesidad de aprovechar al máximo la nueva situación y conseguir implantar el hub lo antes posible para poder dotar al sistema de mayor competencia y liquidez. Además, el sistema español debe aprovechar su gran capacidad y moderna infraestructura para convertir al país en la entrada de gas del suroeste de Europa ampliando así la seguridad de suministro de los países miembros. Otra conclusión que se puede extraer del informe es la necesidad de ampliar el índice de penetración del gas en España e incentivar el consumo frente a otros combustibles fósiles como el carbón y el petróleo. Esto situaría al gas natural como la principal energía de respaldo con respecto a las renovables y permitiría disminuir los precios del kilovatio hora del gas natural. El estudio y análisis de la dinámica que se viene dando en la industria del gas en el mundo es fundamental para poder anticiparse y planear las mejores estrategias frente a los cambios que poco a poco irán modificando el sector y el mercado gasista. ABSTRACT There is a great deal of focus on the natural gas market at the moment. Whether you view natural gas as bridging the gap between coal/oil and an altogether cleaner solution yet to be determined, or as a destination fuel which will be used not only for heating and gas fired generation but also as transportation fuel, there is no doubt that natural gas will have an increasingly important role to play in the global energy landscape. The natural gas industry is changing rapidly, as shale gas exploration changes the economics of gas production and LNG connects regions across the globe. The purpose of this study is to outline the present state of the global gas industry highlighting the differing models around the world. This study will pay particular attention to the move towards hub based pricing that has taken hold first in the US and over the past decade across the UK and Continental Europe. In the coming years the Spanish model will move towards hub based pricing. As gas market regulatory change takes hold, liquidity in the Spanish gas market will increase, bringing with it new ways to balance gas portfolios and placing an increasing focus on managing price risk. This study will in turn establish the links between the changes that have taken place in other markets as a way to better understanding how the Spanish market will evolve in the coming years.

Virtual science hub: an open source platform to enrich science teaching

This paper presents the Virtual Science Hub platform. It is an open source platform that combines a social network, an e-learning authoring tool, a videoconference service and a learning object repository for science teaching enrichment. These four main functionalities fit very well together. The platform was released in April 2012 and since then it has not stopped growing. Finally we present the results of the surveys conducted and the statistics gathered to validate this approach.

Multipedia: Enriching DBpedia with Multimedia Information

Enriching knowledge bases with multimedia information makes it possible to complement textual descriptions with visual and audio information. Such complementary information can help users to understand the meaning of assertions, and in general improve the user experience with the knowledge base. In this paper we address the problem of how to enrich ontology instances with candidate images retrieved from existing Web search engines. DBpedia has evolved into a major hub in the Linked Data cloud, interconnecting millions of entities organized under a consistent ontology. Our approach taps into the Wikipedia corpus to gather context information for DBpedia instances and takes advantage of image tagging information when this is available to calculate semantic relatedness between instances and candidate images. We performed experiments with focus on the particularly challenging problem of highly ambiguous names. Both methods presented in this work outperformed the baseline. Our best method leveraged context words from Wikipedia, tags from Flickr and type information from DBpedia to achieve an average precision of 80%.

Virtual Excursions: a new way to explore science in class

The educational platform Virtual Science Hub (ViSH) has been developed as part of the GLOBAL excursion European project. ViSH (http://vishub.org/) is a portal where teachers and scientist interact to create virtual excursions to science infrastructures. The main motivation behind the project was to connect teachers - and in consequence their students - to scientific institutions and their wide amount of infrastructures and resources they are working with. Thus the idea of a hub was born that would allow the two worlds of scientists and teachers to connect and to innovate science teaching. The core of the ViSH?s concept design is based on virtual excursions, which allow for a number of pedagogical models to be applied. According to our internal definition a virtual excursion is a tour through some digital context by teachers and pupils on a given topic that is attractive and has an educational purpose. Inquiry-based learning, project-based and problem-based learning are the most prominent approaches that a virtual excursion may serve. The domain specific resources and scientific infrastructures currently available on the ViSH are focusing on life sciences, nano-technology, biotechnology, grid and volunteer computing. The virtual excursion approach allows an easy combination of these resources into interdisciplinary teaching scenarios. In addition, social networking features support the users in collaborating and communicating in relation to these excursions and thus create a community of interest for innovative science teaching. The design and development phases were performed following a participatory design approach. An important aspect in this process was to create design partnerships amongst all actors involved, researchers, developers, infrastructure providers, teachers, social scientists, and pedagogical experts early in the project. A joint sense of ownership was created and important changes during the conceptual phase were implemented in the ViSH due to early user feedback. Technology-wise the ViSH is based on the latest web technologies in order to make it cross-platform compatible so that it works on several operative systems such as Windows, Mac or Linux and multi-device accessible, such as desktop, tablet and mobile devices. The platform has been developed in HTML5, the latest standard for web development, assuring that it can run on any modern browser. In addition to social networking features a core element on the ViSH is the virtual excursions editor. It is a web tool that allows teachers and scientists to create rich mash-ups of learning resources provided by the e-Infrastructures (i.e. remote laboratories and live webcams). These rich mash-ups can be presented in either slides or flashcards format. Taking advantage of the web architecture supported, additional powerful components have been integrated like a recommendation engine to provide personalized suggestions about educational content or interesting users and a videoconference tool to enhance real-time collaboration like MashMeTV (http://www.mashme.tv/).

Nonlocal analysis of modular roles

We introduce a new methodology to characterize the role that a given node plays inside the community structure of a complex network. Our method relies on the ability of the links to reduce the number of steps between two nodes in the network, which is measured by the number of shortest paths crossing each link, and its impact on the node proximity. In this way, we use node closeness to quantify the importance of a node inside its community. At the same time, we define a participation coefficient that depends on the shortest paths contained in the links that connect two communities. The combination of both parameters allows to identify the role played by the nodes in the network, following the same guidelines introduced by Guimerà et al. [Guimerà & Amaral, 2005] but, in this case, considering global information about the network. Finally, we give some examples of the hub characterization in real networks and compare our results with the parameters most used in the literature.

Comparing linear and non linear wind flow models

Assessing wind conditions on complex terrain has become a hard task as terrain complexity increases. That is why there is a need to extrapolate in a reliable manner some wind parameters that determine wind farms viability such as annual average wind speed at all hub heights as well as turbulence intensities. The development of these tasks began in the early 90´s with the widely used linear model WAsP and WAsP Engineering especially designed for simple terrain with remarkable results on them but not so good on complex orographies. Simultaneously non-linearized Navier Stokes solvers have been rapidly developed in the last decade through CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) codes allowing simulating atmospheric boundary layer flows over steep complex terrain more accurately reducing uncertainties. This paper describes the features of these models by validating them through meteorological masts installed in a highly complex terrain. The study compares the results of the mentioned models in terms of wind speed and turbulence intensity.

Simulation of wind farms in flat and complex terrain using CFD

Use of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods to predict the power production from wind entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain is presented in this paper. Two full 3D Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible flow are employed that incorporate the k–ε and k–ω turbulence models respectively. The wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient using the actuator disk approach. The WT thrust is estimated using the wind speed one diameter upstream of the rotor at hub height. An alternative method that employs an induction-factor based concept is also tested. This method features the advantage of not utilizing the wind speed at a specific distance from the rotor disk, which is a doubtful approximation when a W/T is located in the wake of another and/or the terrain is complex. To account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, a correction is introduced to the turbulence model. The turbulence time scale is bounded using the general “realizability” constraint for the turbulent velocities. Application is made on two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and another 43-machine one located in complex terrain. In the flat terrain case, the combination of the induction factor method along with the turbulence correction provides satisfactory results. In the complex terrain case, there are some significant discrepancies with the measurements, which are discussed. In this case, the induction factor method does not provide satisfactory results.

CFD modelling of wind farms in complex terrain

Modelling of entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain using a full 3D Navier–Stokes solver for incompressible flow is presented in this paper. Numerical integration of the governing equations is performed using an implicit pressure correction scheme, where the wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers through their thrust coefficient. The k–ω turbulence model, suitably modified for atmospheric flows, is employed for closure. A correction is introduced to account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, in which the turbulence time scale is bounded using a general “realizability” constraint for the fluctuating velocities. The second modelling issue that is discussed in this paper is related to the determination of the reference wind speed for the thrust calculation of the machines. Dealing with large wind farms and wind farms in complex terrain, determining the reference wind speed is not obvious when a W/T operates in the wake of another WT and/or in complex terrain. Two alternatives are compared: using the wind speed value at hub height one diameter upstream of the W/T and adopting an induction factor-based concept to overcome the utilization of a wind speed at a certain distance upwind of the rotor. Application is made in two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and a 43-machine one located in complex terrain.

Incorporating proactivity to context-aware recommender systems for e-learning

Recommender systems in e-learning have proved to be powerful tools to find suitable educational material during the learning experience. But traditional user request-response patterns are still being used to generate these recommendations. By including contextual information derived from the use of ubiquitous learning environments, the possibility of incorporating proactivity to the recommendation process has arisen. In this paper we describe methods to push proactive recommendations to e-learning systems users when the situation is appropriate without being needed their explicit request. As a result, interesting learning objects can be recommended attending to the user?s needs in every situation. The impact of this proactive recommendations generated have been evaluated among teachers and scientists in a real e-learning social network called Virtual Science Hub related to the GLOBAL excursion European project. Outcomes indicate that the methods proposed are valid to generate such kind of recommendations in e-learning scenarios. The results also show that the users' perceived appropriateness of having proactive recommendations is high.

Functional hubs in mild cognitive impairment

We investigate how hubs of functional brain networks are modified as a result of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a condition causing a slight but noticeable decline in cognitive abilities, which sometimes precedes the onset of Alzheimer's disease. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to investigate the functional brain networks of a group of patients suffering from MCI and a control group of healthy subjects, during the execution of a short-term memory task. Couplings between brain sites were evaluated using synchronization likelihood, from which a network of functional interdependencies was constructed and the centrality, i.e. importance, of their nodes was quantified. The results showed that, with respect to healthy controls, MCI patients were associated with decreases and increases in hub centrality respectively in occipital and central scalp regions, supporting the hypothesis that MCI modifies functional brain network topology, leading to more random structures.

Nuevos métodos y herramientas para la creación y utilización de recursos multimedia en la educación

La educación y los entornos educativos están en constante evolución. Tanto alumnos como educadores cambian de hábitos, de maneras de aprender, de gustos, de dispositivos que manejan y de aplicaciones que usan regularmente entre otras cosas. Todos estos cambios vienen acompañados y fomentados en gran medida por la evolución paralela que experimenta la tecnología, tanto software en los programas utilizados, como hardware en los dispositivos y capacidades de éstos. La educación debe también adaptarse a estos cambios, tanto personales como tecnológicos y sacar el mayor provecho de ellos. El uso de Sistemas de Gestión del Aprendizaje está muy extendido en todos los centros educativos. Estos sistemas poseen un gran número de características y funcionalidades que permiten desde la aplicación de un modelo didáctico totalmente tradicional en el que el profesor imparte un contenido y los alumnos lo reciben a uno totalmente innovador en el que ocurren procesos totalmente diferentes. Por otro lado, el potencial que ofrecen los recursos multimedia no ha sido completamente aprovechado en la educación y supone una gran oportunidad. Esta tesis doctoral propone un conjunto de métodos y herramientas para la creación y el uso de recursos multimedia en la educación. Para ello el desarrollo de esta tesis parte de la definición de un modelo didáctico social, colaborativo y centrado en el alumno que servirá de hilo conductor y que integrará los diferentes y métodos y herramientas estudiados y desarrollados. En un primer paso se identifican varias herramientas y métodos para el aula, tales son la grabación de clases, donde se crea y posteriormente se mejora un carrito portátil de grabación que da muy buen resultado, las herramientas de grabación de screencast y la videoconferencia. Estas herramientas además se integran en una plataforma colaborativa dando lugar a una arquitectura completa y escalable que permite la realización de dichas actividades y la interconexión sencilla con el Sistema de Gestión del Aprendizaje. A continuación y ya en un entorno totalmente online se desarrolla una nueva plataforma de e-learning llamada Virtual Science Hub (ViSH) que consta de cuatro funcionalidades principales, red social, videoconferencia, repositorio educativo y herramienta de autor. En esta plataforma se aplicaron técnicas de recomendación proactiva tanto de recursos educativos como de otros usuarios similares. Por último se validó el modelo educativo completo usando algunas de las herramientas identificadas y desarrolladas en dos escenarios diferentes con gran éxito. Finalmente, esta tesis discute las conclusiones obtenidas a lo largo de la extensa investigación llevada a cabo y que ha propiciado la consecución de una buena base teórica y práctica para la creación de herramientas y métodos para la generación y el uso de recursos multimedia en la educación. ABSTRACT Education and learning environments are constantly evolving. Students and educators change the things their habits, their ways of learning, the things they like or the devices and applications that they use regularly among other things. All these changes are accompanied and fostered by the parallel evolution that technology experiences, both in the software programs used as in the hardware and capabilities of these devices. Education must also adapt to these changes, both personal and technological and get the most out of them. Learning Management Systems are widely used in all educational centers. These systems have a large number of features and functionalities. They allow from the implementation of a traditional teaching model in which the teacher gives content and students receive it to one absolutely innovative teaching model where totally different processes occur. Furthermore, the potential of multimedia resources has not been fully exploited in education and can be a great opportunity. This thesis proposes a set of methods and tools for the creation and use of multimedia in education. The development of this thesis starts with the definition of a social, collaborative and learner-centered model, that serves as a common thread and that integrates different tools and methods studied and developed. In a first step, several tools and methods for the classroom are identified, such as recording, where a portable kit is created and then improved giving very good results, screencast recording and videoconferencing. These tools also are integrated into a collaborative platform resulting in a complete, scalable architecture that enables the execution of such activities and a simple interconnection with the Learning Management System. In an fully online environment a new e-learning platform called Virtual Science Hub (ViSH) is created. It consists of four main features that combine and complement each other, social network, videoconferencing, educational repository and authoring tool. In this platform proactive recommendation of both educational resources and similar users is applied. In a last step the entire educational model using some of the tools identified and developed is successfully validated in two different scenarios. Finally, this thesis discusses the findings obtained during the extensive research carried out and has led to the achievement of a good theoretical and practical basis for the development of tools and methods for the generation and use of multimedia in education.

Using hybrid latent class model for city-HUBs´users behaviour analysis

Data from an attitudinal survey and stated preference ranking experiment conducted in two urban European interchanges (i.e. City-HUBs) in Madrid (Spain) and Thessaloniki (Greece) show that the importance that City-HUBs users attach to the intermodal infrastructure varies strongly as a function of their perceptions of time spent in the interchange (i.e.intermodal transfer and waiting time). A principal components analysis allocates respondents (i.e. city-HUB users) to two classes with substantially different perceptions of time saving when they make a transfer and of time using during their waiting time.

Propuestas regulatorias para el diseño de un mercado ibérico a plazo eficiente de la energía = Regulatory proposals for the development of an efficient iberian energy forward market

El mercado ibérico de futuros de energía eléctrica gestionado por OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, con sede en Lisboa), también conocido como el mercado ibérico de derivados de energía, comenzó a funcionar el 3 de julio de 2006. Se analiza la eficiencia de este mercado organizado, por lo que se estudia la precisión con la que sus precios de futuros predicen el precio de contado. En dicho mercado coexisten dos modos de negociación: el mercado continuo (modo por defecto) y la contratación mediante subasta. En la negociación en continuo, las órdenes anónimas de compra y de venta interactúan de manera inmediata e individual con órdenes contrarias, dando lugar a operaciones con un número indeterminado de precios para cada contrato. En la negociación a través de subasta, un precio único de equilibrio maximiza el volumen negociado, liquidándose todas las operaciones a ese precio. Adicionalmente, los miembros negociadores de OMIP pueden liquidar operaciones “Over-The-Counter” (OTC) a través de la cámara de compensación de OMIP (OMIClear). Las cinco mayores empresas españolas de distribución de energía eléctrica tenían la obligación de comprar electricidad hasta julio de 2009 en subastas en OMIP, para cubrir parte de sus suministros regulados. De igual manera, el suministrador de último recurso portugués mantuvo tal obligación hasta julio de 2010. Los precios de equilibrio de esas subastas no han resultado óptimos a efectos retributivos de tales suministros regulados dado que dichos precios tienden a situarse ligeramente sesgados al alza. La prima de riesgo ex-post, definida como la diferencia entre los precios a plazo y de contado en el periodo de entrega, se emplea para medir su eficiencia de precio. El mercado de contado, gestionado por OMIE (“Operador de Mercado Ibérico de la Energía”, conocido tradicionalmente como “OMEL”), tiene su sede en Madrid. Durante los dos primeros años del mercado de futuros, la prima de riesgo media tiende a resultar positiva, al igual que en otros mercados europeos de energía eléctrica y gas natural. En ese periodo, la prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser negativa en los mercados de petróleo y carbón. Los mercados de energía tienden a mostrar niveles limitados de eficiencia de mercado. La eficiencia de precio del mercado de futuros aumenta con el desarrollo de otros mecanismos coexistentes dentro del mercado ibérico de electricidad (conocido como “MIBEL”) –es decir, el mercado dominante OTC, las subastas de centrales virtuales de generación conocidas en España como Emisiones Primarias de Energía, y las subastas para cubrir parte de los suministros de último recurso conocidas en España como subastas CESUR– y con una mayor integración de los mercados regionales europeos de energía eléctrica. Se construye un modelo de regresión para analizar la evolución de los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo durante sus cuatro primeros años como una función de doce indicadores potenciales de liquidez. Los únicos indicadores significativos son los volúmenes negociados en las subastas obligatorias gestionadas por OMIP, los volúmenes negociados en el mercado OTC y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear. El número de creadores de mercado, la incorporación de agentes financieros y compañías de generación pertenecientes a grupos integrados con suministradores de último recurso, y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear muestran una fuerte correlación con los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo. La liquidez de OMIP está aún lejos de los niveles alcanzados por los mercados europeos más maduros (localizados en los países nórdicos (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) y Alemania (EEX)). El operador de mercado y su cámara de compensación podrían desarrollar acciones eficientes de marketing para atraer nuevos agentes activos en el mercado de contado (p.ej. industrias consumidoras intensivas de energía, suministradores, pequeños productores, compañías energéticas internacionales y empresas de energías renovables) y agentes financieros, captar volúmenes del opaco OTC, y mejorar el funcionamiento de los productos existentes aún no líquidos. Resultaría de gran utilidad para tales acciones un diálogo activo con todos los agentes (participantes en el mercado, operador de mercado de contado, y autoridades supervisoras). Durante sus primeros cinco años y medio, el mercado continuo presenta un crecimento de liquidez estable. Se mide el desempeño de sus funciones de cobertura mediante la ratio de posición neta obtenida al dividir la posición abierta final de un contrato de derivados mensual entre su volumen acumulado en la cámara de compensación. Los futuros carga base muestran la ratio más baja debido a su buena liquidez. Los futuros carga punta muestran una mayor ratio al producirse su menor liquidez a través de contadas subastas fijadas por regulación portuguesa. Las permutas carga base liquidadas en la cámara de compensación ubicada en Madrid –MEFF Power, activa desde el 21 de marzo de 2011– muestran inicialmente valores altos debido a bajos volúmenes registrados, dado que esta cámara se emplea principalmente para vencimientos pequeños (diario y semanal). Dicha ratio puede ser una poderosa herramienta de supervisión para los reguladores energéticos cuando accedan a todas las transacciones de derivados en virtud del Reglamento Europeo sobre Integridad y Transparencia de los Mercados de Energía (“REMIT”), en vigor desde el 28 de diciembre de 2011. La prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser positiva en todos los mecanismos (futuros en OMIP, mercado OTC y subastas CESUR) y disminuye debido a la curvas de aprendizaje y al efecto, desde el año 2011, del precio fijo para la retribución de la generación con carbón autóctono. Se realiza una comparativa con los costes a plazo de generación con gas natural (diferencial “clean spark spread”) obtenido como la diferencia entre el precio del futuro eléctrico y el coste a plazo de generación con ciclo combinado internalizando los costes de emisión de CO2. Los futuros eléctricos tienen una elevada correlación con los precios de gas europeos. Los diferenciales de contratos con vencimiento inmediato tienden a ser positivos. Los mayores diferenciales se dan para los contratos mensuales, seguidos de los trimestrales y anuales. Los generadores eléctricos con gas pueden maximizar beneficios con contratos de menor vencimiento. Los informes de monitorización por el operador de mercado que proporcionan transparencia post-operacional, el acceso a datos OTC por el regulador energético, y la valoración del riesgo regulatorio pueden contribuir a ganancias de eficiencia. Estas recomendaciones son también válidas para un potencial mercado ibérico de futuros de gas, una vez que el hub ibérico de gas –actualmente en fase de diseño, con reuniones mensuales de los agentes desde enero de 2013 en el grupo de trabajo liderado por el regulador energético español– esté operativo. El hub ibérico de gas proporcionará transparencia al atraer más agentes y mejorar la competencia, incrementando su eficiencia, dado que en el mercado OTC actual no se revela precio alguno de gas. ABSTRACT The Iberian Power Futures Market, managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, located in Lisbon), also known as the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market, started operations on 3 July 2006. The market efficiency, regarding how well the future price predicts the spot price, is analysed for this energy derivatives exchange. There are two trading modes coexisting within OMIP: the continuous market (default mode) and the call auction. In the continuous trading, anonymous buy and sell orders interact immediately and individually with opposite side orders, generating trades with an undetermined number of prices for each contract. In the call auction trading, a single price auction maximizes the traded volume, being all trades settled at the same price (equilibrium price). Additionally, OMIP trading members may settle Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades through OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). The five largest Spanish distribution companies have been obliged to purchase in auctions managed by OMIP until July 2009, in order to partly cover their portfolios of end users’ regulated supplies. Likewise, the Portuguese last resort supplier kept that obligation until July 2010. The auction equilibrium prices are not optimal for remuneration purposes of regulated supplies as such prices seem to be slightly upward biased. The ex-post forward risk premium, defined as the difference between the forward and spot prices in the delivery period, is used to measure its price efficiency. The spot market, managed by OMIE (Market Operator of the Iberian Energy Market, Spanish Pool, known traditionally as “OMEL”), is located in Madrid. During the first two years of the futures market, the average forward risk premium tends to be positive, as it occurs with other European power and natural gas markets. In that period, the ex-post forward risk premium tends to be negative in oil and coal markets. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. The price efficiency of the Iberian Power Futures Market improves with the market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms within the Iberian Electricity Market (known as “MIBEL”) – namely, the dominant OTC market, the Virtual Power Plant Auctions known in Spain as Energy Primary Emissions, and the auctions catering for part of the last resort supplies known in Spain as CESUR auctions – and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market during its first four years is built as a function of twelve potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the OTC market, and the OTC cleared volumes by OMIClear. The amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial members and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume by OMIClear show strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (located in the Nordic countries (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) and Germany (EEX)). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (e.g. energy intensive industries, suppliers, small producers, international energy companies and renewable generation companies) and financial agents as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions. During its firs five and a half years, the continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. The hedging performance is measured through a net position ratio obtained from the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain – MEFF Power, operating since 21 March 2011, with a new denomination (BME Clearing) since 9 September 2013 – show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). The net position ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation on Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (“REMIT”), in force since 28 December 2011. The ex-post forward risk premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (OMIP futures, OTC market and CESUR auctions) and diminishes due to the learning curve and the effect – since year 2011 – of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. Comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”) – obtained as the difference between the power futures price and the forward generation cost with a gas fired combined cycle plant taking into account the CO2 emission rates – is also performed. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The clean spark spreads built with prompt contracts tend to be positive. The biggest clean spark spreads are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains. The same recommendations are also valid for a potential Iberian gas futures market, once an Iberian gas hub – currently in a design phase, with monthly meetings amongst the stakeholders in a Working Group led by the Spanish energy regulatory authority since January 2013 – is operating. The Iberian gas hub would bring transparency attracting more shippers and improving competition and thus its efficiency, as no gas price is currently disclosed in the existing OTC market.

Influencia de un nuevo marco jurídico en la competitividad del sistema portuario español

El sistema portuario español movió en el año 2013 aproximadamente 458,54 millones de toneladas, 13,8 millones de TEUs, con un total de 131.128 buques que accedieron a puerto para el conjunto de las 28 Autoridades Portuarias. Con el 62% de las exportaciones y el 86% de las importaciones realizadas por vía marítima, una rentabilidad del 2,34 %, muy cerca del objetivo del 2,5 % de rentabilidad media annual establecida legalmente, y una cifra de negocios aproximada de 1.028 millones de euros equivalentes al 1,1 % del PIB que genera un empleo directo e indirecto vinculado de 145.000 personas, concluimos que estamos hablando de un sector estratégico para la economía del país. Desde hace décadas, en muchos puertos del mundo se han venido desarrollando terminales “hub” o de concentración y distribución de cargas. Las navieras concentran entre este tipo de terminales sus líneas transoceánicas con buques de enormes dimensiones y capacidad de carga para producir los tránsitos de contenedores desde estas líneas a otras líneas llamadas “feeder”, con buques de menor tamaño que enlazan el “hub” con los puertos de su área marítima de influencia. La excepcional ubicación geoestratégica de España, con aproximadamente ocho mil kilómetros de costa, ha originado que los puertos españoles de mayor dimensión aspiren a incorporarse a esta red marítima internacional de contenedores y determina que en nuestro sistema portuario los movimientos de contenedores de tránsito tengan gran importancia. Sin embargo, la crisis económica ha tenido un efecto decisivo en el sector marítimo, determinando una lucha feroz entre todos los puertos, nacionales e internacionales, por captar este tipo de tráficos, lo que origina una búsqueda de las compañías navieras de puertos cada vez más eficientes en términos calidad/coste del servicio. La entrada en vigor del Texto Refundido de la Ley de Puertos y la piedra angular de su reforma, la Ley 33/2010, plantea como objetivo principal la mejora de la competitividad del sistema portuario español y liderar su recuperación, ofreciendo unas condiciones de entorno favorables a los puertos españoles que acaben por incentivar la captación de tráficos e inversión privada a través de una oferta de servicios e infraestructura de calidad y a precios competitivos que consoliden su posición dentro del tráfico marítimo mundial. Surge, por tanto, la conveniencia de investigar la influencia de las medidas propuestas por dicha norma legal y las soluciones ofrecidas a las demandas de un sector considerado estratégico para la economía del país, y cuya resolución se considera imprescindible para consolidar su recuperación. Por eso, se han analizado los aspectos más importantes de la reforma mediante la realización de un resumen ejecutivo y se ha estudiado la influencia de las medidas que incorpora desde el punto de vista de tres factores, que previamente se han considerado como fundamentales para la recuperación del sistema portuario español, y que históricamente habían sido demandados por el mismo, como son, en primer lugar, un progresivo sistema de flexibilización tributaria que permitiera a los puertos españoles ganar en términos de competitividad respecto a otros modelos portuarios mucho más flexibles en materia tarifaria, en segundo lugar, una necesaria liberalización del régimen de prestación de los servicios portuarios que posibilite el libre acceso a cualquier interesado en su prestación y, en último lugar, el progresivo abaratamiento de los costes inherentes a dichos servicios, fundamentalmente la manipulación de mercancías. Con posterioridad se ha investigado el trámite parlamentario al que se ha sometido la ley, fruto del enorme consenso alcanzado entre las dos principales fuerzas políticas del país, que determinó que se presentaran más de 700 enmiendas al proyecto original, y en algunos casos, se ha prestado especial atención a determinadas enmiendas que se consideran, en opinión de este investigador, novedosas y aventuradas, razón por la cual quizás no fueron incorporadas definitivamente al texto legal. Y se han analizado las principales demandas y aportaciones extraídas de la Sesión Informativa sobre la tramitación del entonces proyecto de ley ofrecida por la Comisión de Fomento del Congreso de los Diputados a los principales representantes del sector, comunidad portuaria, universidad y sindicatos. Siendo conscientes de la incidencia que tiene el servicio portuario de manipulación de mercancías en el paso de la mercancía por el puerto, se ha hecho una referencia concreta al peculiar régimen jurídico y laboral del personal vinculado al servicio. Avanzamos que las características de la relación laboral especial, y su peculiar régimen jurídico, con una dualidad de relaciones laborales, tiene una influencia decisiva en la nómina del trabajador que se repercute en los usuarios del servicio, fundamentalmente el naviero y el operador de la terminal, que en definitiva, incide en la competitividad del puerto. Y se ha constatado el auge aperturista de numerosas legislaciones portuarias europeas, prestando especial atención al proyecto frustrado de liberalización de los servicios portuarios en la Unión Europea de la conocida como Directiva Loyola de Palacio del año 2003 y al Libro Blanco de Transportes del año 2011. Así como a las deficiencias advertidas por el Dictamen de la Comisión Europea de fecha 27/09/2012 en relación al régimen jurídico del servicio portuario de manipulación de mercancías, que lo considera disconforme y contrario con las normas de libertad de establecimiento en Europa y que amenaza con una previsible reforma unilateral de la legislación portuaria española, a instancias europeas. Bajo este planteamiento, se ha procedido a analizar el marco de prestación de dichos servicios desde el punto de vista de la propia comunidad portuaria. Inicialmente, a través de un estudio de fuerzas de la competitividad del sector de los servicios portuarios en el sistema portuario español que nos permitirá trazar un mapa estratégico del mismo a través del “Modelo de las Cinco Fuerzas de Porter” concluyendo, que el poder de los prestadores de servicios portuarios como proveedores de los mismos, fundamentalmente en la manipulación de mercancías, es máximo, con un único colectivo, los estibadores portuarios, que al amparo de la normativa legal vigente tienen la exclusividad de su prestación. Dichas circunstancias restan competitividad al sistema frente a alternativas portuarias más flexibles y desincentivan la inversión privada. Y, en segundo lugar, mediante un proceso participativo en distintas encuestas sobre el modelo legislativo y sobre el marco formativo del sector con los propios agentes afectados dentro de la comunidad portuaria, desde la triple perspectiva de la vertiente pública que representan las Autoridades Portuarias, como gestores de las infraestructuras, la vertiente privada que representan los usuarios y prestadores de servicios, como principal cliente del puerto y desde el punto de vista de la propia mano de obra portuaria materializada en la representación sindical de dichos trabajadores. Los resultados nos permitirán concluir, respectivamente, la incidencia del servicio portuario mercancía por el puerto, por representar más de la mitad de los costes. Así como la aspiración de los trabajadores adscritos a dicho servicio de consolidar un título formativo que unifique y potencie su capacitación profesional, circunstancia esta última, también demandada por toda comunidad portuaria. Analizadas las conclusiones extraídas en cada una de las líneas de investigación se han detectado una serie de ineficiencias dentro del mismo que dicho marco regulador no ha sabido resolver, por lo que se ha considerado la conveniencia de formular, como herramienta de ayuda a gestores del sistema portuario español, una relación de medidas que, en opinión de este investigador, se consideran necesarias para mejorar el régimen de prestación de los servicios portuarios y se ha propuesto un borrador de modificación del actual Texto Refundido que pueda servir de base para materializar una futura reforma legal. Las conclusiones obtenidas en la investigación deben sentar las bases de una profunda reflexión sobre la necesidad de encaminar, como alternativa a una previsible modificación a instancias europeas, una reforma legal que decididamente apueste por la competitividad del sistema portuario español desde el punto de vista de la liberalización de servicios, el abaratamiento de los costes de la estiba y la necesaria profesionalización de los trabajadores adscritos al servicio portuario de manipulación de mercancías. During 2013 the Spanish Port System moved nearly 458,54 million tons of freight, 13,8 million TEUs, involving a total of 131.128 ships for the 28 existing Port Authorities. With 62% of exports and 86% of imports made through sea transportation, a 2,34% profit, close to the 2,5% average annual profit goal legally established, revenues of 1.028 million € equivalent to a 1.1% of Spain’s GDP and a figure of 145.000 people a directly or indirectly employed we can conclude that maritime industry is undoubtedly one of the strategic and key sectors for the country’s economy. Since several decades many ports in the world have been increasingly developing “Hub” terminals, those which concentrate and distribute freight. Shipping companies place among these type of terminals their transoceanic sea liners along with huge dimension & capacity ships to make the container transit from these liners to other called “feeder” which are smaller freight ships that connect the “hub” with the ports within its maritime area of influence. Spain’s exceptional geostrategic location with over 8.000 km of coastline has originated that those big dimension Spanish ports aspire to become a part of a container international maritime network which also determines that transit container move is key within our port system. Nevertheless the economic crisis has had a decisive impact on the maritime sector originating a fierce battle between all ports, national and international ones, all of them fight against each other to catch this type of maritime traffic which triggers an ongoing shipping companies search in cost/service quality efficient ports. The cornerstone of the Restated Text of Port Law is Law 33/2010, which lays out as main goal the Spanish Port System competitiveness improvement and lead its recovery offering favorable environment conditions to Spanish ports which help encourage maritime traffic attraction and private investment through a wide offer of services, quality of infrastructure and competitive prices which can consolidate its positioning within the world’s maritime traffic. It is therefore key to investigate the influence of the measures proposed by the above mentioned law and also the solutions offered to the demands of a sector which is considered strategic for the country’s economy and which solution is essential to consolidate the recovery. It is because of this that the most important aspects of the reform have been analyzed through the making of an executive summary and it has also been studied the influence of the measures it includes from the point of view of three factors which have previously been considered as key for the Spanish port system recovery. The system has historically demanded a progressive tax flexibility, which would permit Spanish ports be more competitive compared to other port models much more flexible in rates, a necessary liberalization of the port service provision regime and last but not least, to cut the price of costs related to those services, mainly freight handling. Following this, the parliamentary process of the law has also been studied as a consequence of the vast consensus reached by the main political forces in the country which clearly determined that more than 700 amendments to the original project were presented. In some cases the focus has been on amendments which are adventurous and new, reason why they were finally not included to the final legal text. Being well aware of the importance that freight handling procedure has, I have made a specific reference to the legal and working framework of those employees related to this service. We conclude that the special working relationship, its different legal regime, along with the working relationship dualism has a big impact and decisive influence over the worker’s salary which also affects service users, mainly shipowners and terminal operators, having a bad effect on the port’s competitiveness. The above confirms the new opening trend of main European port laws with special attention to the frustrated European Union port services liberalization project, also known as Directive Loyola de Palacio (2003) and the White Paper on Transports (2011). It is important to highlight that the European Commission has also observed several deficiencies with regard to the freight handling port service Law Regime being in disagreement with it, considering it is against the free establishment rules in Europe. The Commission is likely to present a unilateral reform to the Spanish Port Law. Under this approach the service provision framework is being analyzed from the Port Community point of view. Initially the analysis will focus on the study of the competition forces within the port services industry in Spain, this will allow us to draw up an strategic map through “Porter’s Five Forces Model” concluding that the power of port services providers as freight handlers is maximum, with an only collective, stevedores, which has the exclusivity for their services. All these circumstances not only decrease the system’s competitiveness versus other more flexible but also restrain private investments. Secondly, through a participating procedure in different surveys about the legislative model and about the training framework with the affected agents within the port community, there is a triple perspective: Public point of view represented by Port Authorities as infrastructure managers, Private point of view represented by users and service suppliers as main Port’s customer and finally, port workforce, represented by union leaders. Results will let us conclude that freight handling service is the most critical port service and represents more than half of the costs. This service related workers aspire to obtain a training certificate that unifies and boosts their professional role which is also chased by the entire port community. Once conclusions have been analyzed for all research lines, several deficiencies have been found and the regulatory framework hasn’t yet been able to solve them, it has therefore been a series of necessary measures that help improve the port services provision regime. A new proposal to the Restated Law Text has been drafted as the first step to embrace a future legal reform. Conclusions obtained on the research should set the new basis of a deep reflection about the need to bent on a new legal reform which firmly bets on Spanish port system competitiveness from three key points of view, service liberalization, ship load cost reduction and professionalization of freight handling related workers.

Consideration of tip speed limitations in preliminary analysis of minimum COE wind turbines

A relation between Cost Of Energy, COE, maximum allowed tip speed, and rated wind speed, is obtained for wind turbines with a given goal rated power. The wind regime is characterised by the corresponding parameters of the probability density function of wind speed. The non-dimensional characteristics of the rotor: number of blades, the blade radial distributions of local solidity, twist angle, and airfoil type, play the role of parameters in the mentioned relation. The COE is estimated using a cost model commonly used by the designers. This cost model requires basic design data such as the rotor radius and the ratio between the hub height and the rotor radius. Certain design options, DO, related to the technology of the power plant, tower and blades are also required as inputs. The function obtained for the COE can be explored to �nd those values of rotor radius that give rise to minimum cost of energy for a given wind regime as the tip speed limitation changes. The analysis reveals that iso-COE lines evolve parallel to iso-radius lines for large values of limit tip speed but that this is not the case for small values of the tip speed limits. It is concluded that, as the tip speed limit decreases, the optimum decision for keeping minimum COE values can be: a) reducing the rotor radius for places with high weibull scale parameter or b) increasing the rotor radius for places with low weibull scale parameter