Efficiency analysis of information technology and online social networks management : an integrated DEA-Model assessment

This paper analyses the relationship between productive efficiency and online-social-networks (OSN) in Spanish telecommunications firms. A data-envelopment-analysis (DEA) is used and several indicators of business ?social Media? activities are incorporated. A super-efficiency analysis and bootstrapping techniques are performed to increase the model?s robustness and accuracy. Then, a logistic regression model is applied to characterise factors and drivers of good performance in OSN. Results reveal the company?s ability to absorb and utilise OSNs as a key factor in improving the productive efficiency. This paper presents a model for assessing the strategic performance of the presence and activity in OSN.

Climate Change Impacts on Maize and Dry Bean Yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras

The rotation maize and dry bean provides the main food supply of smallholder farmers in Honduras. Crop model assessment of climate change impacts (2070?2099 compared to a 1961?1990 baseline) on a maize?dry bean rotation for several sites across a range of climatic zones and elevations in Honduras. Low productivity systems, together with an uncertain future climate, pose a high level of risk for food security. The cropping systems simulation dynamic model CropSyst was calibrated and validated upon field trail site at Zamorano, then run with baseline and future climate scenarios based upon general circulation models (GCM) and the ClimGen synthetic daily weather generator. Results indicate large uncertainty in crop production from various GCM simulations and future emissions scenarios, but generally reduced yields at low elevations by 0 % to 22 % in suitable areas for crop production and increased yield at the cooler, on the hillsides, where farming needs to reduce soil erosion with conservation techniques. Further studies are needed to investigate strategies to reduce impacts and to explore adaptation tactics.

Application of Bayesian approach in geotechnical engineering

En esta Tesis Doctoral se emplean y desarrollan Métodos Bayesianos para su aplicación en análisis geotécnicos habituales, con un énfasis particular en (i) la valoración y selección de modelos geotécnicos basados en correlaciones empíricas; en (ii) el desarrollo de predicciones acerca de los resultados esperados en modelos geotécnicos complejos. Se llevan a cabo diferentes aplicaciones a problemas geotécnicos, como es el caso de: (1) En el caso de rocas intactas, se presenta un método Bayesiano para la evaluación de modelos que permiten estimar el módulo de Young a partir de la resistencia a compresión simple (UCS). La metodología desarrollada suministra estimaciones de las incertidumbres de los parámetros y predicciones y es capaz de diferenciar entre las diferentes fuentes de error. Se desarrollan modelos "específicos de roca" para los tipos de roca más comunes y se muestra cómo se pueden "actualizar" esos modelos "iniciales" para incorporar, cuando se encuentra disponible, la nueva información específica del proyecto, reduciendo las incertidumbres del modelo y mejorando sus capacidades predictivas. (2) Para macizos rocosos, se presenta una metodología, fundamentada en un criterio de selección de modelos, que permite determinar el modelo más apropiado, entre un conjunto de candidatos, para estimar el módulo de deformación de un macizo rocoso a partir de un conjunto de datos observados. Una vez que se ha seleccionado el modelo más apropiado, se emplea un método Bayesiano para obtener distribuciones predictivas de los módulos de deformación de macizos rocosos y para actualizarlos con la nueva información específica del proyecto. Este método Bayesiano de actualización puede reducir significativamente la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción, y por lo tanto, afectar las estimaciones que se hagan de la probabilidad de fallo, lo cual es de un interés significativo para los diseños de mecánica de rocas basados en fiabilidad. (3) En las primeras etapas de los diseños de mecánica de rocas, la información acerca de los parámetros geomecánicos y geométricos, las tensiones in-situ o los parámetros de sostenimiento, es, a menudo, escasa o incompleta. Esto plantea dificultades para aplicar las correlaciones empíricas tradicionales que no pueden trabajar con información incompleta para realizar predicciones. Por lo tanto, se propone la utilización de una Red Bayesiana para trabajar con información incompleta y, en particular, se desarrolla un clasificador Naïve Bayes para predecir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de grandes deformaciones (squeezing) en un túnel a partir de cinco parámetros de entrada habitualmente disponibles, al menos parcialmente, en la etapa de diseño. This dissertation employs and develops Bayesian methods to be used in typical geotechnical analyses, with a particular emphasis on (i) the assessment and selection of geotechnical models based on empirical correlations; on (ii) the development of probabilistic predictions of outcomes expected for complex geotechnical models. Examples of application to geotechnical problems are developed, as follows: (1) For intact rocks, we present a Bayesian framework for model assessment to estimate the Young’s moduli based on their UCS. Our approach provides uncertainty estimates of parameters and predictions, and can differentiate among the sources of error. We develop ‘rock-specific’ models for common rock types, and illustrate that such ‘initial’ models can be ‘updated’ to incorporate new project-specific information as it becomes available, reducing model uncertainties and improving their predictive capabilities. (2) For rock masses, we present an approach, based on model selection criteria to select the most appropriate model, among a set of candidate models, to estimate the deformation modulus of a rock mass, given a set of observed data. Once the most appropriate model is selected, a Bayesian framework is employed to develop predictive distributions of the deformation moduli of rock masses, and to update them with new project-specific data. Such Bayesian updating approach can significantly reduce the associated predictive uncertainty, and therefore, affect our computed estimates of probability of failure, which is of significant interest to reliability-based rock engineering design. (3) In the preliminary design stage of rock engineering, the information about geomechanical and geometrical parameters, in situ stress or support parameters is often scarce or incomplete. This poses difficulties in applying traditional empirical correlations that cannot deal with incomplete data to make predictions. Therefore, we propose the use of Bayesian Networks to deal with incomplete data and, in particular, a Naïve Bayes classifier is developed to predict the probability of occurrence of tunnel squeezing based on five input parameters that are commonly available, at least partially, at design stages.

User benefit assessment by a dynamic LUTI model for Madrid

Assessing users’ benefit in a transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure users’ benefit in a different way from the consumer surplus. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new measure of user benefits by weighting consumer surplus in order to include equity assessment for different transport policies simulated in a dynamic middle-term LUTI model adapted to the case study of Madrid. Three different transport policies, including road pricing, parking charge and public transport improvement have been simulated through the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator, MARS, the LUTI calibrated model for Madrid). A social welfare function (WF) is defined using a cost benefit analysis function that includes mainly costs and benefits of users and operators of the transport system. Particularly, the part of welfare function concerning the users, (i.e. consumer surplus), is modified by a compensating weight (CW) which represents the inverse of household income level. Based on the modified social welfare function, the effects on the measure of users benefits are estimated and compared with the old WF ́s results as well. The result of the analysis shows that road pricing leads a negative effect on the users benefits specially on the low income users. Actually, the road pricing and parking charge implementation results like a regressive policy especially at long term. Public transport improvement scenario brings more positive effects on low income user benefits. The integrated (road pricing and increasing public services) policy scenario is the one which receive the most user benefits. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport systems policies and user benefits distribution in a metropolitan context.

Comparative assessment of global irradiation from a satellite estimate model (CM SAF) and on-ground measurements (SIAR): a Spanish case study

An analysis and comparison of daily and yearly solar irradiation from the satellite CM SAF database and a set of 301 stations from the Spanish SIAR network is performed using data of 2010 and 2011. This analysis is completed with the comparison of the estimations of effective irradiation incident on three different tilted planes (fixed, two axis tracking, north-south hori- zontal axis) using irradiation from these two data sources. Finally, a new map of yearly values of irradiation both on the horizontal plane and on inclined planes is produced mixing both sources with geostatistical techniques (kriging with external drift, KED) The Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) between CM SAF and SIAR is approximately 4% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 5% and 6% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The MAD between KED and SIAR, and KED and CM SAF is approximately 3% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 3% and 4% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The methods have been implemented using free software, available as supplementary ma- terial, and the data sources are freely available without restrictions.

Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer for offshore wind resource assessment with a limited length-scale k-ε model

The structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is modelled with the limited- length-scale k-ε model of Apsley and Castro. Contrary to the standard k-ε model, the limited-length-scale k-ε model imposes a maximum mixing length which is derived from the boundary layer height, for neutral and unstable atmospheric situations, or by Monin-Obukhov length when the atmosphere is stably stratified. The model is first verified reproducing the famous Leipzig wind profile. Then the performance of the model is tested with measurements from FINO-1 platform using sonic anemometers to derive the appropriate maximum mixing length.

Comparative assessment of global irradiation from a satellite estimate model (CM SAF) and on-ground measurements (SIAR): a Spanish case study

An analysis and comparison of daily and yearly solar irradiation from the satellite CM SAF database and a set of 301 stations from the Spanish SIAR network is performed using data of 2010 and 2011. This analysis is completed with the comparison of the estimations of effective irradiation incident on three different tilted planes (fixed, two axis tracking, north-south hori- zontal axis) using irradiation from these two data sources. Finally, a new map of yearly values of irradiation both on the horizontal plane and on inclined planes is produced mixing both sources with geostatistical techniques (kriging with external drift, KED) The Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) between CM SAF and SIAR is approximately 4% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 5% and 6% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The MAD between KED and SIAR, and KED and CM SAF is approximately 3% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 3% and 4% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The methods have been implemented using free software, available as supplementary ma- terial, and the data sources are freely available without restrictions.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Subjective quality assessment of an adaptive video streaming model

With the recent increased popularity and high usage of HTTP Adaptive Streaming (HAS) techniques, various studies have been carried out in this area which generally focused on the technical enhancement of HAS technology and applications. However, a lack of common HAS standard led to multiple proprietary approaches which have been developed by major Internet companies. In the emerging MPEG-DASH standard the packagings of the video content and HTTP syntax have been standardized; but all the details of the adaptation behavior are left to the client implementation. Nevertheless, to design an adaptation algorithm which optimizes the viewing experience of the enduser, the multimedia service providers need to know about the Quality of Experience (QoE) of different adaptation schemes. Taking this into account, the objective of this experiment was to study the QoE of a HAS-based video broadcast model. The experiment has been carried out through a subjective study of the end user response to various possible clients’ behavior for changing the video quality taking different QoE-influence factors into account. The experimental conclusions have made a good insight into the QoE of different adaptation schemes which can be exploited by HAS clients for designing the adaptation algorithms.

Assessment of urban parameterizations in the WRF model for air quality modelling purposes in Madrid (Spain)

This study aims to assess the performance or multi-layer canopy parameterizations implemented in the mesoscale WRF model in order to understand their potential contribution to improve the description of energy fluxes and wind fields in the Madrid city. It was found that the Building Energy Model (BEP+BEM) parameterization yielded better results than the bulk standard scheme implemented in the Noah LSM, but very close to those of the Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The later was deemed as the best option since data requirements and CPU time were smaller. Two annual runs were made to feed the CMAQ chemical-transport model to assess the impact of this feature in routinely air quality modelling activities.

Evaluation of air quality impacts with an integrated assessment model for Spain

The present paper describes the advancement and evaluation of air quality-related impacts with the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS). In its current version, AERIS is able to provide estimates on the impacts of air quality over human health (PM2.5 and O3), crops and vegetation (O3). The modules that allow quantifying the before mentioned impacts were modeled by applying different approaches (mostly for the European context) present in scientific literature to the conditions of the Iberian Peninsula. This application was supported by reliable data sources, as well as by the good predictive capacity of AERIS for ambient concentrations. For validation purposes, the estimates of AERIS for impacts on human health (change in the statistical life expectancy-PM2.5) and vegetation (loss of wheat crops-O3) were compared against results from the SERCA project and GAINS estimates for two emission scenarios. In general, good results evidenced by reasonable correlation coefficients were obtained, therefore confirming the adequateness of the followed modeling approaches and the quality of AERIS predictions.

Design of a generalized tool for the performance assessment under sail based on analytical, numerical and empirical results : a global sailing yacht meta-model

La evaluación de las prestaciones de las embarcaciones a vela ha constituido un objetivo para ingenieros navales y marinos desde los principios de la historia de la navegación. El conocimiento acerca de estas prestaciones, ha crecido desde la identificación de los factores clave relacionados con ellas(eslora, estabilidad, desplazamiento y superficie vélica), a una comprensión más completa de las complejas fuerzas y acoplamientos involucrados en el equilibrio. Junto con este conocimiento, la aparición de los ordenadores ha hecho posible llevar a cabo estas tareas de una forma sistemática. Esto incluye el cálculo detallado de fuerzas, pero también, el uso de estas fuerzas junto con la descripción de una embarcación a vela para la predicción de su comportamiento y, finalmente, sus prestaciones. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo proporcionar una definición global y abierta de un conjunto de modelos y reglas para describir y analizar este comportamiento. Esto se lleva a cabo sin aplicar restricciones en cuanto al tipo de barco o cálculo, sino de una forma generalizada, de modo que sea posible resolver cualquier situación, tanto estacionaria como en el dominio del tiempo. Para ello se comienza con una definición básica de los factores que condicionan el comportamiento de una embarcación a vela. A continuación se proporciona una metodología para gestionar el uso de datos de diferentes orígenes para el cálculo de fuerzas, siempre con el la solución del problema como objetivo. Esta última parte se plasma en un programa de ordenador, PASim, cuyo propósito es evaluar las prestaciones de diferentes ti pos de embarcaciones a vela en un amplio rango de condiciones. Varios ejemplos presentan diferentes usos de PASim con el objetivo de ilustrar algunos de los aspectos discutidos a lo largo de la definición del problema y su solución . Finalmente, se presenta una estructura global de cara a proporcionar una representación virtual de la embarcación real, en la cual, no solo e l comportamiento sino también su manejo, son cercanos a la experiencia de los navegantes en el mundo real. Esta estructura global se propone como el núcleo (un motor de software) de un simulador físico para el que se proporciona una especificación básica. ABSTRACT The assessment of the performance of sailing yachts, and ships in general, has been an objective for naval architects and sailors since the beginning of the history of navigation. The knowledge has grown from identifying the key factors that influence performance(length, stability, displacement and sail area), to a much more complete understanding of the complex forces and couplings involved in the equilibrium. Along with this knowledge, the advent of computers has made it possible to perform the associated tasks in a systematic way. This includes the detailed calculation of forces, but also the use of those forces, along with the description of a sailing yacht, to predict its behavior, and ultimately, its performance. The aim of this investigation is to provide a global and open definition of a set of models and rules to describe and analyze the behavior of a sailing yacht. This is done without applying any restriction to the type of yacht or calculation, but rather in a generalized way, capable of solving any possible situation, whether it is in a steady state or in the time domain. First, the basic definition of the factors that condition the behavior of a sailing yacht is given. Then, a methodology is provided to assist with the use of data from different origins for the calculation of forces, always aiming towards the solution of the problem. This last part is implemented as a computational tool, PASim, intended to assess the performance of different types of sailing yachts in a wide range of conditions. Several examples then present different uses of PASim, as a way to illustrate some of the aspects discussed throughout the definition of the problem and its solution. Finally, a global structure is presented to provide a general virtual representation of the real yacht, in which not only the behavior, but also its handling is close to the experience of the sailors in the real world. This global structure is proposed as the core (a software engine) of a physical yacht simulator, for which a basic specification is provided.