Constructs and evaluation strategies for intelligent speculative parallelism - armageddon revisited

This report addresses speculative parallelism (the assignment of spare processing resources to tasks which are not known to be strictly required for the successful completion of a computation) at the user and application level. At this level, the execution of a program is seen as a (dynamic) tree —a graph, in general. A solution for a problem is a traversal of this graph from the initial state to a node known to be the answer. Speculative parallelism then represents the assignment of resources to múltiple branches of this graph even if they are not positively known to be on the path to a solution. In highly non-deterministic programs the branching factor can be very high and a naive assignment will very soon use up all the resources. This report presents work assignment strategies other than the usual depth-first and breadth-first. Instead, best-first strategies are used. Since their definition is application-dependent, the application language contains primitives that allow the user (or application programmer) to a) indícate when intelligent OR-parallelism should be used; b) provide the functions that define "best," and c) indícate when to use them. An abstract architecture enables those primitives to perform the search in a "speculative" way, using several processors, synchronizing them, killing the siblings of the path leading to the answer, etc. The user is freed from worrying about these interactions. Several search strategies are proposed and their implementation issues are addressed. "Armageddon," a global pruning method, is introduced, together with both a software and a hardware implementation for it. The concepts exposed are applicable to áreas of Artificial Intelligence such as extensive expert systems, planning, game playing, and in general to large search problems. The proposed strategies, although showing promise, have not been evaluated by simulation or experimentation.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Evaluation of reproductive sucess and conservation strategies for Senecio coincyi (Asteraceae), a narrow and threatened species

Senecio coincyi is a threatened endemic plant of central western Spain, with a very narrow extent of occurrence. The reproductive success and germination behaviour of this species were studied. The area of occupancy, habitat types and size of 13 known subpopulations of S. coincyi were evaluated. The number of individuals that form all these subpopulations was counted. In addition, the number of flowers and cypselas per fruit head and the number of fruit heads per individual plant were recorded in a subset of subpopulations. Germination tests were carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and light regimes on, and possible intraspecific variation in, cypsela germination. Cypselas reached very high germination percentages (90?100%) from 15?C to 30?C. However, the germination decreased (19%) at 10?C. The light conditions assayed (16-h light photoperiod and complete darkness) did not significantly affect cypsela germination. In general, there was no intraspecific variability in germination patterns of S. coincyi cypselas. Livestock is the most important factor that can be a threat for this species. S. coincyi showed high reproductive success and, therefore, its conservation problems are not due to agents related to its reproduction, but rather to other factors such as alteration of its habitat caused by the presence of livestock.

Evaluation of reproductive success and conservation strategies for Senecio coincyi (Asteraceae), a narrow and threatened species.

enecio coincyi is a threatened endemic plant of central western Spain, with a very narrow extent of occurrence. The reproductive success and germination behaviour of this species were studied. The area of occupancy, habitat types and size of 13 known subpopulations of S. coincyi were evaluated. The number of individuals that form all these subpopulations was counted. In addition, the number of flowers and cypselas per fruit head and the number of fruit heads per individual plant were recorded in a subset of subpopulations. Germination tests were carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and light regimes on, and possible intraspecific variation in, cypsela germination. Cypselas reached very high germination percentages (90?100%) from 15°C to 30°C. However, the germination decreased (19%) at 10°C. The light conditions assayed (16-h light photoperiod and complete darkness) did not significantly affect cypsela germination. In general, there was no intraspecific variability in germination patterns of S. coincyi cypselas. Livestock is the most important factor that can be a threat for this species. S. coincyi showed high reproductive success and, therefore, its conservation problems are not due to agents related to its reproduction, but rather to other factors such as alteration of its habitat caused by the presence of livestock.

CFD modelling of the interaction between the Surface Boundary Layer and rotor wake. Comparison of results obtained with different turbulence models and mesh strategies

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming non-uniform flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is tested under different parameterizations of turbulence models and validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit and turbulence intensity.