4 resultados para heteroscedastic effects model

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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The vertical dynamic actions transmitted by railway vehicles to the ballasted track infrastructure is evaluated taking into account models with different degree of detail. In particular, we have studied this matter from a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model to a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) multi-body finite element model. The vehicle and track are coupled via a non-linear Hertz contact mechanism. The method of Lagrange multipliers is used for the contact constraint enforcement between wheel and rail. Distributed elevation irregularities are generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions which are taken into account for the interaction. The numerical simulations are performed in the time domain, using a direct integration method for solving the transient problem due to the contact nonlinearities. The results obtained include contact forces, forces transmitted to the infrastructure (sleeper) by railpads and envelopes of relevant results for several track irregularities and speed ranges. The main contribution of this work is to identify and discuss coincidences and differences between discrete 2D models and continuum 3D models, as wheel as assessing the validity of evaluating the dynamic loading on the track with simplified 2D models

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Effects of considering the particle comminution rate -kc- in addition to particle rumen outflow -kp- and the ruminal microbial contamination on estimates of by-pass and intestinal digestibility of DM, organic matter and crude protein were examined in perennial ryegrass and oat hays. By-pass kc-kp-based values of amino acids were also determined. This study was performed using particle transit, in situ and 15N techniques on three rumen and duodenum-cannulated wethers. The above estimates were determined using composite samples from rumen-incubated residues representative of feed by-pass. Considering the comminution rate, kc, modified the contribution of the incubated residues to these samples in both hays and revealed a higher microbial contamination, consistently in oat hay and only as a tendency for crude protein in ryegrass hay. Not considering kc or rumen microbial contamination overvalued by-pass and intestinal digestibility in both hays. Therefore, non-microbial-corrected kp-based values of intestinal digested crude protein were overestimated as compared with corrected and kc-kp-based values in ryegrass hay -17.4 vs 4.40%- and in oat hay -5.73 vs 0.19%-. Both factors should be considered to obtain accurate in situ estimates in grasses, as the protein value of grasses is very conditioned by the microbial synthesis derived from their ruminal fermentation. Consistent overvaluations of amino acid by-pass due to not correcting microbial contamination were detected in both hays, with large variable errors among amino acids. A similar degradation pattern of amino acids was recorded in both hays. Cysteine, methionine, leucine and valine were the most degradation-resistant amino acids.

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Data of diverse crop rotations from five locations across Europe were distributed to modelers to investigate the capability of models to handle complex crop rotations and management interactions.

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This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.