Future trends in Animal Breeding due to new genetic tecnologies

The Darwin theory of evolution by natural selection is based on three principles: (a) variation; (b) inheritance; and (c) natural selection. Here, I take these principles as an excuse to review some topics related to the future research prospects in Animal Breeding. With respect to the first principle I describe two forms of variation different from mutation that are becoming increasingly important: variation in copy number and microRNAs. With respect to the second principle I comment on the possible relevance of non-mendelian inheritance, the so-called epigenetic effects, of which the genomic imprinting is the best characterized in domestic species. Regarding selection principle I emphasize the importance of selection for social traits and how this could contribute to both productivity and animal welfare. Finally, I analyse the impact of molecular biology in Animal Breeding, the achievements and limitations of quantitative trait locus and classical marker-assisted selection and the future of genomic selection

State of the Art and Future Trends in Grid Codes Applicable to Isolated Electrical Systems

Isolated electrical systems lack electrical interconnection to other networks and are usually placed in geographically isolated areas—mainly islands or locations in developing countries. Until recently, only diesel generators were able to assure a safe and reliable supply in exchange for very high costs for fuel transportation and system operation. Transmission system operators (TSOs) are increasingly seeking to replace traditional energy models based on large groups of conventional generation units with mixed solutions where diesel groups are held as backup generation and important advantages are provided by renewable energy sources. The grid codes determine the technical requirements to be fulfilled by the generators connected in any electrical network, but regulations applied to isolated grids are more demanding. In technical literature it is rather easy to find and compare grid codes for interconnected electrical systems. However, the existing literature is incomplete and sparse regarding isolated grids. This paper aims to review the current state of isolated systems and grid codes applicable to them, specifying points of comparison and defining the guidelines to be followed by the upcoming regulations.

State of the Art and Future Trends in Grid Codes Applicable to Isolated Electrical Systems

Electrical power systems are changing their traditional structure, which was based on a little number of large generating power plants placed at great distances from loads by new models that tend to split the big production nodes in many smaller ones. The set of small groups which are located close to consumers and provide safe and quality energy is called distributed generation (DG). The proximity of the sources to the loads reduces losses associated with transportation and increases overall system efficiency. DG also favors the inclusion of renewable energy sources in isolated electrical systems or remote microgrids, because they can be installed where the natural resource is located. In both cases, as weak grids unable to get help from other nearby networks, it is essential to ensure appropriate behavior of DG sources to guarantee power system safety and stability. The grid codes sets out the technical requirements to be fulfilled for the sources connected in these electrical networks. In technical literature it is rather easy to find and compare grid codes for interconnected electrical systems. However, the existing literature is incomplete and sparse regarding isolated electrical systems and this happens due to the difficulties inherent in the pursuit of codes. Some countries have developed their own legislation only for their island territory (as Spain or France), others apply the same set of rules as in mainland, another group of island countries have elaborated a complete grid code for all generating sources and some others lack specific regulation. This paper aims to make a complete review of the state of the art in grid codes applicable to isolated systems, setting the comparison between them and defining the guidelines predictably followed by the upcoming regulations in these particular systems.

How future trends may affect international cooperation in planning education : the case of Spain and Latin America

Despite the benefits for exc hanging experiences among planners at the global scale, the strong context dependency of urban planning creates in many instances significant difficulties to extrapolate experiences from one geographical context to the other. If progress is to be achieved in international cooperation programmes, differences and commonalities should be assessed before la unching any academic initiative. In that respect, this p aper makes a brief foresight exercise on how future trends and challenges, which may affect the urban pl anning field, should be taken into consideration according to two different contexts: Spain and Latin America. A segmentation matrix is used to expose a nd discuss the different effects of future trends on both contexts. Some tentative conclusions are drawn for the development of international educational programmes

Pressure management in water distribution systems: current status, proposals, and future trends

Pressure management (PM) is commonly used in water distribution systems (WDSs). In the last decade, a strategic objective in the field has been the development of new scientific and technical methods for its implementation. However, due to a lack of systematic analysis of the results obtained in practical cases, progress has not always been reflected in practical actions. To address this problem, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the most innovative issues related to PM. The methodology proposed is based on a case-study comparison of qualitative concepts that involves published work from 140 sources. The results include a qualitative analysis covering four aspects: (1) the objectives yielded by PM; (2) types of regulation, including advanced control systems through electronic controllers; (3) new methods for designing districts; and (4) development of optimization models associated with PM. The evolution of the aforementioned four aspects is examined and discussed. Conclusions regarding the current status of each factor are drawn and proposals for future research outlined

A Retrospective View of Software Maintenance and Reengineering Research.

As a summary of past, current, and future trends in software maintenance and reengineering research, we give in this editorial a retrospective look from the past 14 years to now. We provide insight on how software maintenance has evolved and on the most important research topics presented in the series of the European Conference on Software Maintenance and Reengineering.

Overview of international research in generic competence assessment

The competency assessment is a key issue for improving the quality of teaching and learning within the current European Higher Education Area (EHEA). The aim of this paper is to review the current research on assessment of generic competences, especially through online tools. It has conducted a search of the Web of Knowledge (Thomson Reuters) from keywords. It have been reviewed the abstracts and the results have been classified by time periods, countries and research area. It has selected a set of articles of the period 2010?2012, in which we have analyzed future trends. It is concluded that the research of assessment generic competences is been developing nowadays in educational area, although is still more important in the professional one. Additionally, it is surprising that appears most often used in preuniversity education levels. The academic context has increased research activities over the past five years, with different developments in the Anglo?Saxon countries over that those countries attached to the Bologna Process. The latest reports indicate that the learning competences must meet the individual reality of each person, so that the use of ICTs in their development and evaluation are essential given its immediacy and motivational ability. There is a clear trend towards an evaluation model that includes a 360º specific and generic competences analysis.

Hogar digital para servicios FTTH : dispositivos, tecnologías y QoE

FTTH (fibra hasta el hogar) es actualmente, junto con la banda ancha móvil, la principal evolución tecnológica en Redes y Servicios de Telecomunicaciones. Se prevé que en los próximos años, el despliegue de las redes FTTH se vea incrementado de manera significativa, gracias al interés creciente tanto de Operadores de Telecomunicaciones como de Organismos Gubernamentales. Este despliegue (que en el año 2013 ya se está haciendo realidad) llevará servicios de muy alta velocidad (superiores a 100 Mbps, incluso 1 Gbps) de manera masiva a los hogares, exigiendo nuevos requisitos y prestaciones en la red del hogar de los clientes. Se abre aquí, por tanto, un campo de exploración novedoso, incipiente y de requerimientos cada vez más exigentes. De hecho, sin duda, la red del hogar es uno de los elementos fundamentales para el éxito de las redes y servicios en FTTH. Debido a todo lo anterior, se convierte en una necesidad para el sector de las Telecomunicaciones el encontrar soluciones a los problemas anteriormente mencionados. Con objeto de contribuir al análisis de soluciones, este proyecto se enfoca en dos temas, ambos relacionados con la problemática ya mencionada en la red del hogar:  Prospección e identificación de soluciones tecnológicas avanzadas para la red del hogar. Descrito en capítulos 2, 3 y 4. En ellos se realiza un estudio detallado de la situación actual y tendencias futuras de los dispositivos utilizados en la red del hogar. Este estudio está enfocado en la distribución de señales de muy alto ancho de banda (en torno a los 100 Mbps por segundo) en el hogar.  Diseño y desarrollo de una aplicación que permita determinar la calidad de experiencia de cliente (QoE) de un servicio de televisión IP (IPTV). Descrito en capítulos 5 y 6. Se ha seleccionado este tipo de servicios debido a que son los que requieren mayores prestaciones tanto de la red de transporte como de la red del hogar y, al mismo tiempo, son los más complicados de medir debido a la fuerte componente de subjetividad del usuario final. Una red del hogar correctamente diseñada debe cumplir de manera equilibrada los requisitos demandados tanto por el operador como por el cliente o usuario final del servicio. Los requisitos del operador se centran principalmente en el control de la inversión (CAPEX) y del gasto de mantenimiento de la red del hogar (OPEX). El usuario, por otra parte, requiere sencillez en la instalación y mínimo número de elementos a instalar (cero intrusismo, ausencia de cableado). Para adaptarse a estos requerimientos, existe una serie de dispositivos y tecnologías que buscan encontrar el punto de equilibrio entre necesidades de operadores y de clientes finales. Las soluciones actualmente utilizadas pueden dividirse en soluciones cableadas e inalámbricas. También existen soluciones híbridas. Todas ellas se describen en detalle en los capítulos 3 y 4. Al final del estudio se concluye que, con la tecnología actual, es preferible el uso de soluciones cableadas tipo Ethernet o POF. Es recomendable no usar soluciones PLC de manera extensiva (G.hn puede ser una alternativa a futuro) y, en caso de no requerir cableado, utilizar WiFi 11n con frecuencias de 5 GHz, así como sus evoluciones, WiFi 11ac y 11ad. La aplicación desarrollada, explicada en los capítulos 5 y 6, permite capturar y medir en tiempo real la señal de televisión IP que se entrega al usuario. Esta aplicación estimará, a partir de dichas medidas, la calidad de la señal entregada. Para ello tendrá en cuenta el tipo de descodificador utilizado por el usuario así como la red empleada (red FTTH de Telefónica). Esta aplicación podría ser utilizada en los centros de atención técnica de las operadoras de telecomunicaciones, determinando así la relación existente entre reclamaciones recibidas y calidad de servicio medida por la aplicación. Asimismo, aparte de realizar medidas en tiempo real, la aplicación vuelca las medidas realizadas y alarmas detectadas en ficheros log, facilitando el análisis técnico de los problemas e incidencias registrados por dichos centros técnicos. Igualmente, esta aplicación puede ser utilizada para el proceso de certificación de equipamiento de red del hogar o incluso como herramienta para profundizar en parámetros teóricos y criterios de medida de calidad de servicio en IPTV. ABSTRACT. FTTH (Fiber To The Home) and mobile broadband are currently the main technological trend in the Network and Telecommunications Services area. In the next few years, the deployment of FTTH networks will experiment a significant increase, due to the growing interest of both telecommunications operators and government agencies. This deployment (that is becoming a reality) which will massively carry high-speed services to households (speeds of more than 100 Mbps, even 1 Gbps) will demand new requirements and features in the customer’s home network. It can be found here a new and emerging field of exploration, with increasingly demanding requirements. In fact, the home network is one of the key elements for the success of FTTH network and services. Due to the aforementioned, it is a necessity for the telecommunications industry to find solutions to these problems. In order to contribute into the solution analysis, this project focuses on two subjects, both related to the problems of home networking:  Exploratory research and identification of advanced technology solutions for the home network. Described in chapters 2, 3 and 4. These chapters show a detailed study of the current situation and future trends of the devices used at the home network. It focuses on the distribution of very high bandwidth signals (around 100 Mbps per second) in the customer’s home.  Design and development of an application to evaluate customer’s quality of experience (QoE) of an IP television service (IPTV). Described in chapters 5 and 6. IPTV service has been selected because it requires higher performance both from the transport and the home networks and, at the same time, it is the most difficult to measure due to the strong component of subjectivity of the end user. A correct design of the home network must meet the requirements demanded both by the network operator and the customer (end user of the service). Network operator requirements mainly focus on reduced capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX). Additionally, the final user requires a simple and easy installation and also the minimum number of items to install (zero intrusion, lack of wiring, etc.). Different devices and technologies seek to find a balance between these two requirements (network operators and final users requirements). Solutions available in the market can be divided into wired and wireless. There are also hybrid solutions. All of them are described thoroughly in the first part of the project. The conclusion at the end of the study recommends the use of wired technologies like Ethernet or POF. Additionally, the use of PLC is not advised (G.hn can be an alternative in the future) and, in the case of not requiring wiring, the use of 11ac and 11ad WiFi is advised. The application developed in the second part of the project allows capturing and measuring the real-time IPTV signal delivered to the user. This application will estimate the delivered signal quality from the captured measurements. For this purpose, it will also consider the type of decoder installed on the customer’s premises and the transport network (Telefonica’s FTTH network). This application could be used at the operator’s technical service centres, determining in this way the relationship between user’s complaints and the quality of service measured. Additionally, this application can write all the measurements and alarms in log files, making easier the technical analysis of problems and impairments recorded by the technical centres. Finally, the application can also be used for the certification process of home networking equipment (i.e. decoders) or even as a tool to deepen theoretical parameters and measuring criteria of quality of service in IPTV.

Estudio y análisis comparativo de las actuales técnicas biométricas

El siguiente Trabajo Fin de Master se divide en tres partes, siempre, alrededor de la identificación biométrica. Esta ciencia aprovecha que existen ciertas características biológicas o conductuales singulares e inalterables, por lo que pueden ser analizados y medidos para crear una huella biométrica. Estas características son difíciles de perder, transferir u olvidar y son perdurables en el tiempo. En la primera de las partes se ofrecerá una visión sobre la importancia histórica de esta ciencia, desde los primeros vestigios humanos, en la zona de Mesopotamia, pasando por los grandes innovadores y precursores de la identificación biométrica, como Bertillon, Galton, Vucetich, etc. auspiciados por una finalidad mayoritariamente criminalística o policiaca, hasta la gran revolución a finales del siglo pasado, en las que técnicas que parecían ciencia ficción se hicieron realidad. En el siguiente apartado se analizaran las 6 principales técnicas que se usan actualmente, realizando una mirada más profunda en los principios naturales, fisiológicos y físicos sobre los que se basan se expondrán las tendencias futuras sobre las que trabajara la industria para el desarrollo de técnicas más seguras, menos invasivas y más transparentes para los usuarios finales. Estas como ha pasado a lo largo de la historia sonaran increíbles, pero una vez más la raza humana conseguirá materializarlas e introducirlas en su día a día. Para finalizar y después de este estudio en detalle, se intentará realizar una comparación y análisis basados en las más importantes características para las técnicas biométricas, fiabilidad, facilidad, usurpación, aceptación y estabilidad, etc. ABSTRACT The following Master's Thesis is divided into three parts, always, about biometric identification. This science fail that certain biological or behavioural characteristics unique and unchangeable, so it can be analysed and measured to create a biometric fingerprint. These features are hard to miss, or forget to transfer and are enduring in time. In the first part a vision of the historical importance of this science are offered, from the earliest human remains in the area of Mesopotamia, to the great innovators and pioneers of biometric identification, such as Bertillon, Galton, Vucetich, etc. . sponsored a largely forensic or detective purpose, until the great revolution in the late nineteenth century, in which techniques that seemed science fiction became reality. The following section will analyse the 6 main techniques currently in use, making a deeper look at the natural, physiological and physical principles on which future trends are based on the industry to work for the development of techniques will be discussed more safer, less invasive and more transparent to end users. Such as has happened throughout history sounded amazing, but once again the human race get materialize and introduce them in their day to day. Finally and after the study in detail, and try to make a comparison based on the most important features for biometric technologies, reliability, ease, alienation, acceptance and stability analysis etc..

Estudio del fenómeno Social Media en la pequeña empresa del sector TIC español

En un mundo en el que cada vez son más las personas que utilizan Internet para llevar a cabo sus comunicaciones y relaciones, tanto a nivel personal como profesional, las Redes Sociales se han convertido en una herramienta, para muchos imprescindible, de interacción social. A lo largo de este proyecto se realizará un análisis exhaustivo de las características del ya conocido como Fenómeno Social Media, para posteriormente centrar toda la atención en las ventajas y desventajas de dicha actividad en el ámbito empresarial. Dado que hasta el momento no se ha encontrado ningún otro estudio que trate el Fenómeno Social Media en la Pequeña Empresa del sector TIC español, el objetivo principal del proyecto se centra en conocer la influencia que las Redes Sociales están generando en la estrategia empresarial de dicho sector de empresas, cuyas características y particularidades hacen de ellas un modelo de negocio único y diferente y cuyo número se ha visto incrementado en los últimos años, debido quizás, a la situación de crisis que atraviesa el país. Para ello, se analizarán las ventajas e inconvenientes que se derivan de su uso, como afecta a la creación de valor, y, finalmente, cual es el nivel de implicación y/o inversión que la Pequeña Empresa ha adoptado al respecto. Dentro de este marco, se pretende realizar un énfasis especial en el concepto de cocreación de valor y sus variantes (Crowdsourcing, Open Innovation e Innovación Orientada por las Personas), que permita determinar el grado de importancia del usuario como generador de valor. Posteriormente, en la parte práctica, se llevará a cabo un amplio estudio de mercado, a partir de una encuesta online realizada a un conjunto de empresas, cuidadosamente seleccionadas de entre más de 100.000 compañías, según su sector de actividad, número de empleados y volumen de negocios anual, y cuyos resultados serán analizados con la intención de obtener una visión clara del comportamiento global de las empresas seleccionadas. Por último, tomaremos de referencia las dos últimas publicaciones anuales del “Observatorio sobre el uso de las Redes Sociales en las Pymes españolas” (2011 y 2013), estudios dedicados íntegramente a Redes Sociales y Pymes, y cuya información, junto con los resultados obtenidos de nuestro estudio, nos permitirán determinar la tendencia actual y futura, y en consecuencia, obtener las conclusiones oportunas que nos permitan dar respuesta a las cuestiones planteadas durante la realización del proyecto, y determinar si nos encontramos o no ante una verdadera fuente de éxito empresarial. ABSTRACT. In a world where more and more people are using the Internet to perform their communications and relationships, both personally and professionally, Social Networks have become a social interaction tool, indispensable for many people. Throughout this project we will perform a thorough analysis of the characteristics of the Social Media Phenomenon, focusing on the advantages and disadvantages of such activity in a business scope. Given that we have not found no study on the Social Media Phenomenon in Small Business of the Spanish ICT sector, the main objective of this project is to establish the influence that Social Networks are generating in the business strategy of this business sector, the characteristics and peculiarities that make them a unique and different business model and whose number has increased in recent years, perhaps due to the crisis the country is facing. To do this, we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages derived from its use, how it affects value creation, and finally, what is the level of involvement and / or investment that the Small Business has taken in this regard. In this context, we intend to make a special emphasis on the concept of value co-creation and its variants (Crowdsourcing, Open Innovation and People Oriented Innovation), to determine the degree of importance of the user to value generator. Subsequently, on the practical section, out a comprehensive market study will be carried, based on an online test to a group of enterprises, carefully selected from more than 100,000 companies, according to their sector of activity, number of employees and annual turnover, and the results will be analyzed with the intention to get a clear view of the selected company's overall performance. Finally, we will take as reference the last two annual publications of the "Observatory on the use of Social Networks in Spanish SMEs" (2011 and 2013), entirely dedicated to Social Media and SMEs studies, and whose information, together with the results obtained in our study will allow us to determine the current and future trends, and consequently, obtain the appropriate conclusions to respond to the raised questions throughout the project, and determine whether or not they are a real source of business success.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Detecting, Localizing and Following Dynamic Objects with a Mini-UAV

This paper presents an approach for the detection, localization and following of dynamic terrestrial objects using a mini-UAV. The development is intended to be used for surveillance of large infrastructures. The detection algorithm is based on finding several pre-defined characteristics of the target, such as color, shape and size. The process used to localize the target, once it is detected, is based on an inversion of the Pinhole camera model. The task of following the Summit XL was designed to keep the target inside the field of view of the camera, and it was implemented in the form of a PID controller. The system has been tested both in simulation and with real robots, showing promising results.

Multiple Robots, Single Operator: Considerations About Information And Commanding

Multiple robot, single operator scenarios suppose a challenge in terms of human factors. Two relevant issues are keeping the situational awareness and managing the workload of operators. In order to address these problems, this work analyses the management of information and commands in multi-robot missions. About the information, this paper proposes a selection based on mission and operator states. Regarding the commands, this work reflects about the levels of automation and the methods of commanding.

Pedestrian Motion Prediction: A Graph Based Approach

A novel pedestrian motion prediction technique is presented in this paper. Its main achievement regards to none previous observation, any knowledge of pedestrian trajectories nor the existence of possible destinations is required; hence making it useful for autonomous surveillance applications. Prediction only requires initial position of the pedestrian and a 2D representation of the scenario as occupancy grid. First, it uses the Fast Marching Method (FMM) to calculate the pedestrian arrival time for each position in the map and then, the likelihood that the pedestrian reaches those positions is estimated. The technique has been tested with synthetic and real scenarios. In all cases, accurate probability maps as well as their representative graphs were obtained with low computational cost.

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin’s crops