Extreme temperature events analyzed with Fast Fourier Transform

Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often large loss of agriculture business and exponentially increasing costs associated with them and insurance planning. This increased attention raises the question as to whether extreme weather and climate events are truly increasing, whether this is only a perceived increase exacerbated by enhanced media coverage, or both. There are a number of ways extreme climate events can be defined, such as extreme daily temperatures, extreme daily rainfall amounts, and large areas experiencing unusually warm monthly temperatures, among others. In this study, we will focus our attention in frost and heatstroke events measuring it as the number of days under 0 ºC and number of days with daily maximum over 30ºC monthly respectively. We have studied the trends in these extreme events applying a Fast Fourier Transform to the series to clarify the tendency. Lack of long-term climate data suitable for analysis of extremes is the single biggest obstacle to quantifying whether extreme events have changed over the twentieth century, including high temporal and spatial resolution observations of temperatures. However, several series have been grouped in different ways: chosen the longest series independently, by provinces, by main watersheds and altitude. On the other hand, synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet) were also analyzed. The results obtained by different pooling data are discussed concluding the difficulties to assess the extreme events tendencies and high regional variation in the trends.

Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula

Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance.

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change for summer crops on Andalusia: evaluation for extreme maximum temperatures

Evaluate a set of agricultural adaptation strategies to cope with climate change impacts, with focus on the consequences of extreme events on the adaptations proposed in the semi-arid environment of Andalusia (Southern Spain).

Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain

Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme Tmax damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%.

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.

Assessing forest response-type diversity to natural disturbances in Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands = Evaluación de la diversidad de tipos de respuesta a perturbaciones naturales en la España peninsular e Islas Baleares

Disturbances shape forest ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and processes. In the Mediterranean Basin, changes in the disturbance regimes have been predicted to occur in the next future with a higher occurrence of extreme events of drought, wildfire, and – to a lesser extent – windstorm. Woody species are the main elements defining the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. Recently, response-type diversity has been pointed out as an appropriate indicator of ecosystems resilience. For this, we have elaborated a complete response-trait database for the tree and shrubby species considered in the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory (3SNFI). In the database, the presence or absence of nine response traits associated to drought, fire, and wind were assigned to each species. The database reflected the lack of information about some important traits (in particular for shrubby species) and allowed to determine those traits most widely distributed. The information contained in the database was then used to assess a relative index of forest resilience to these disturbances calculated from the abundance of response traits and the species redundancy for each plot of the 3SNFI; considering both tree and shrubby species. In general, few plots showed high values of the resilience index, probably because some traits were scarcely presented in the species and also because most plots presented very few species. The cartographic representation of the index showed low values for the stands located in mountainous ranges, which are mostly composed by species typical from central Europe. In the other side, Eucalyptus plantations in Galicia appeared as one thee the most resilient ecosystems, due to its higher adaptive capacity to persist after the occurrence of drought, fire, and windstorm events. We conclude that the response traits database can constitute a useful tool for forest management and planning and for future research to enhance the forest resilience.

Lateral Dynamic Models for High-Speed Railway Bridges and Vehicles

The analysis of the running safety of railway vehicles on viaducts subject to strong lateral actions such as cross winds requires coupled nonlinear vehicle-bridge interaction models, capable to study extreme events. In this paper original models developed by the authors are described, based on finite elements for the structure, multibody and finite element models for the vehicle, and specially developed interaction elements for the interface between wheel and rail. The models have been implemented within ABAQUS and have full nonlinear capabilities for the structure, the vehicle and the contact interface. An application is developed for the Ulla Viaduct, a 105 m tall arch in the Spanish high-speed railway network. The dynamic analyses allow obtaining critical wind curves, which define the running safety conditions for a given train in terms of speed of circulation and wind speed

Natural regeneration in mediterranean mixed forests: effect of environmental conditions on the physiological optimum niche of the species = Regeneración natural en masas mixtas mediterráneas: efecto de las condiciones ambientales en el nicho óptimo fisiológico de las especies

Los montes Mediterráneos han experimentado múltiples cambios en las últimas décadas (tanto en clima como en usos), lo que ha conducido a variaciones en la distribución de especies. El aumento previsto de las temperaturas medias junto con la mayor variabilidad intra e inter anual en cuanto a la ocurrencia de eventos extremos o disturbios naturales (como periodos prolongados de sequía, olas de frío o calor, incendios forestales o vendavales) pueden dañar significativamente al regenerado, llevándolo hasta la muerte, y jugando un papel decisivo en la composición de especies y en la dinámica del monte. La amplitud ecológica de muchas especies forestales puede verse afectada, de forma que se esperan cambios en sus nichos actuales de regeneración. Sin embargo, la migración latitudinal de las especies en busca de mejores condiciones, podría ser una explicación demasiado simplista de un proceso mucho más complejo de interacción entre la temperatura y la precipitación, que afectaría a cada especie de un modo distinto. En este sentido tanto la capacidad de adaptación al estrés ambiental de una determinada especie, así como su habilidad para competir por los recursos limitados, podría significar variaciones dentro de una comunidad. Las características fisiológicas y morfológicas propias de cada especie se encuentran fuertemente relacionadas con el lugar donde cada una puede surgir, qué especies pueden convivir y como éstas responden a las condiciones ambientales. En este sentido, el conocimiento sobre las distintas respuestas ecofisiológicas observadas ante cambios ambientales puede ser fundamentales para la predicción de variaciones en la distribución de especies, composición de la comunidad y productividad del monte ante el cambio global. En esta tesis investigamos el grado de tolerancia y sensibilidad que cada una de las tres especies de estudio, coexistentes en el interior peninsular ibérico (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex y Juniperus oxycedrus), muestra ante los factores abióticos de estrés típicos de la región Mediterránea. Nuestro trabajo se ha basado en la definición del nicho óptimo fisiológico para el regenerado de cada especie a través de la investigación en profundidad del efecto de la sequía, la temperatura y el ambiente lumínico. Para ello, hemos desarrollado un modelo de predicción de la tasa de asimilación de carbono que nos ha permitido identificar las condiciones óptimas ambientales donde el regenerado de cada especie podría establecerse con mayor facilidad. En apoyo a este trabajo y con la idea de estudiar el efecto de la sequía a nivel de toda la planta hemos desarrollado un experimento paralelo en invernadero. Aquí se han aplicado dos regímenes hídricos para estudiar las características fisiológicas y morfológicas de cada especie, sobre todo a nivel de raíz y crecimiento del tallo, y relacionarlas con las diferentes estrategias en el uso del agua de las especies. Por último, hemos estudiado los patrones de aclimatación y desaclimatación al frio de cada especie, identificando los periodos de sensibilidad a heladas, así como cuellos de botella donde la competencia entre especies podría surgir. A pesar de que el pino piñonero ha sido la especie objeto de la gestión de estas masas durante siglos, actualmente se encuentra en la posición más desfavorable para combatir el cambio global, presentado el nicho fisiológico más estrecho de las tres especies. La encina sin embargo, ha resultado ser la especie mejor cualificada para afrontar este cambio, seguida muy de cerca por el enebro. Nuestros resultados sugieren una posible expansión en el rango de distribución de la encina, un aumento en la presencia del enebro y una disminución progresiva del pino piñonero a medio plazo en estas masas. ABSTRACT Mediterranean forests have undergone multiple changes over the last decades (in both climate and land use), which have lead to variations in the distribution of species. The expected increase in mean annual temperature together with the greater inter and intra-annual variability in extreme events and disturbances occurrence (such as prolonged drought periods, cold or heat waves, wildfires or strong winds) can significantly damage natural regeneration, up to causing death, playing a decisive role on species composition and forest dynamics. The ecological amplitude for adaptation of many species can be affected in such a way that changes in the current regeneration niches of many species are expected. However, the forecasted poleward migration of species seeking better conditions could be an oversimplification of what is a more complex phenomenon of interactions among temperature and precipitation, that would affect different species in different ways. In this regard, either the ability to adapt to environmental stresses or to compete for limited resources of a single species in a mixed forest could lead to variations within a community. The ecophysiological and morphological traits specific to each species are strongly related to the place where each species can emerge, which species can coexist, and how they respond to environmental conditions. In this regard, the understanding of the ecophysiological responses observed against changes in environmental conditions can be essential for predicting variations in species distribution, community composition, and forest productivity in the context of global change. In this thesis we investigated the degree of tolerance and sensitivity that each of the three studied species, co-occurring in central of the Iberian Peninsula (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex and Juniperus oxycedrus), show against the typical abiotic stress factors in the Mediterranean region. Our work is based on the optimal physiological niche for regeneration of each species through in-depth research on the effect of drought, temperature and light environment. For this purpose, we developed a model to predict the carbon assimilation rate which allows us to identify the optimal environmental conditions where regeneration from each species could establish itself more easily. To obtain a better understanding about the effect of low temperature on regeneration, we studied the acclimation and deacclimation patterns to cold of each species, identifying period of frost sensitivity, as well as bottlenecks where competition between species can arise. Finally, to support our results about the effect of water availabilty, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with a view of studying the drought effect at the whole plant level. Here, two watering regimes were applied in order to study the physiological and morphological traits of each species, mainly at the level of the root system and stem growth, and so relate them to the different water use strategies of the species. Despite the fact that stone pine has been the target species for centuries, nowadays this species is in the most unfavorable position to cope with climate change. Holm oak, however, resulted the species that is best adapted to tolerate the predicted changes, followed closely by prickly juniper. Our results suggest a feasible expansion of the distribution range in holm oak, an increase in the prickly juniper presence and a progressive decreasing of stone pine presence in the medium term in these stone pine-holm oak-prickly juniper mixed forests.

Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)

The study of pointer years of numerous tree-ring chronologies of the central Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama) could provide complementary information about climate variability over the last 405 yr. In total, 64 pointer years have been identified: 30 negative (representing minimum growths) and 34 positive (representing maximum growths), the most significant of these being 1601, 1963 and 1996 for the negative ones, and 1734 and 1737 for the positive ones. Given that summer precipitation was found to be the most limiting factor for the growth of Pinus in the Sierra de Guadarrama in the second half of the 20th century, it is also an explanatory factor in almost 50% of the extreme growths. Furthermore, these pointer years and intervals are not evenly distributed throughout time. Both in the first half of the 17th and in the second half of 20th, they were more frequent and more extreme and these periods are the most notable for the frequency of negative pointer years in Central Spain. The interval 1600–1602 is of special significance, being one of the most unfavourable for tree growth in the centre of Spain, with 1601 representing the minimum index in the regional chronology. We infer that this special minimum annual increase was the effect of the eruption of Huaynaputina, which occurred in Peru at the beginning of 1600 AD. This is the first time that the effects of this eruption in the tree-ring records of Southern Europe have been demonstrated.

Understanding extreme Spanish coastal flood events

The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise by storm surge accompanying rain process on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the presentation analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market".

Extreme overirradiance events in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Phenomena of overirradiance have been pointed all over the World. This note presents the most extreme enhancement event reported in Brazil, which contains an irradiance reading of 1590 W/m2 measured in São Paulo (latitude 23°32′S) at relatively low altitude (760 m a.s.l.).

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference.

Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin

The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X mayor que x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.