Climate change technology transfer to developing countries: evidence analysis and policy recommendations

Developing countries are experiencing unprecedented levels of economic growth. As a result, they will be responsible for most of the future growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Curbing GHG emissions in developing countries has become one of the cornerstones of a future international agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, setting caps for developing countries’ GHG emissions has encountered strong resistance in the current round of negotiations. Continued economic growth that allows poverty eradication is still the main priority for most developing countries, and caps are perceived as a constraint to future growth prospects. The development, transfer and use of low-carbon technologies have more positive connotations, and are seen as the potential path towards low-carbon development. So far, the success of the UNFCCC process in improving the levels of technology transfer (TT) to developing countries has been limited. This thesis analyses the causes for such limited success and seeks to improve on the understanding about what constitutes TT in the field of climate change, establish the factors that enable them in developing countries and determine which policies could be implemented to reinforce these factors. Despite the wide recognition of the importance of technology and knowledge transfer to developing countries in the climate change mitigation policy agenda, this issue has not received sufficient attention in academic research. Current definitions of climate change TT barely take into account the perspective of actors involved in actual climate change TT activities, while respective measurements do not bear in mind the diversity of channels through which these happen and the outputs and effects that they convey. Furthermore, the enabling factors for TT in non-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) developing countries have been seldom investigated, and policy recommendations to improve the level and quality of TTs to developing countries have not been adapted to the specific needs of highly heterogeneous countries, commonly denominated as “developing countries”. This thesis contributes to enriching the climate change TT debate from the perspective of a smaller emerging economy (Chile) and by undertaking a quantitative analysis of enabling factors for TT in a large sample of developing countries. Two methodological approaches are used to study climate change TT: comparative case study analysis and quantitative analysis. Comparative case studies analyse TT processes in ten cases based in Chile, all of which share the same economic, technological and policy frameworks, thus enabling us to draw conclusions on the enabling factors and obstacles operating in TT processes. The quantitative analysis uses three methodologies – principal component analysis, multiple regression analysis and cluster analysis – to assess the performance of developing countries in a number of enabling factors and the relationship between these factors and indicators of TT, as well as to create groups of developing countries with similar performances. The findings of this thesis are structured to provide responses to four main research questions: What constitutes technology transfer and how does it happen? Is it possible to measure technology transfer, and what are the main challenges in doing so? Which factors enable climate change technology transfer to developing countries? And how do different developing countries perform in these enabling factors, and how can differentiated policy priorities be defined accordingly? vi Resumen Los paises en desarrollo estan experimentando niveles de crecimiento economico sin precedentes. Como consecuencia, se espera que sean responsables de la mayor parte del futuro crecimiento global en demanda energetica y emisiones de Gases de Efecto de Invernadero (GEI). Reducir las emisiones de GEI en los paises en desarrollo es por tanto uno de los pilares de un futuro acuerdo internacional en el marco de la Convencion Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climatico (UNFCCC). La posibilidad de compromisos vinculantes de reduccion de emisiones de GEI ha sido rechazada por los paises en desarrollo, que perciben estos limites como frenos a su desarrollo economico y a su prioridad principal de erradicacion de la pobreza. El desarrollo, transferencia y uso de tecnologias bajas en carbono tiene connotaciones mas positivas y se percibe como la via hacia un crecimiento bajo en carbono. Hasta el momento, la UNFCCC ha tenido un exito limitado en la promocion de transferencias de tecnologia (TT) a paises en desarrollo. Esta tesis analiza las causas de este resultado y busca mejorar la comprension sobre que constituye transferencia de tecnologia en el area de cambio climatico, cuales son los factores que la facilitan en paises en desarrollo y que politicas podrian implementarse para reforzar dichos factores. A pesar del extendido reconocimiento sobre la importancia de la transferencia de tecnologia a paises en desarrollo en la agenda politica de cambio climatico, esta cuestion no ha sido suficientemente atendida por la investigacion existente. Las definiciones actuales de transferencia de tecnologia relacionada con la mitigacion del cambio climatico no tienen en cuenta la diversidad de canales por las que se manifiestan o los efectos que consiguen. Los factores facilitadores de TT en paises en desarrollo no BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) apenas han sido investigados, y las recomendaciones politicas para aumentar el nivel y la calidad de la TT no se han adaptado a las necesidades especificas de paises muy heterogeneos aglutinados bajo el denominado grupo de "paises en desarrollo". Esta tesis contribuye a enriquecer el debate sobre la TT de cambio climatico con la perspectiva de una economia emergente de pequeno tamano (Chile) y el analisis cuantitativo de factores que facilitan la TT en una amplia muestra de paises en desarrollo. Se utilizan dos metodologias para el estudio de la TT a paises en desarrollo: analisis comparativo de casos de estudio y analisis cuantitativo basado en metodos multivariantes. Los casos de estudio analizan procesos de TT en diez casos basados en Chile, para derivar conclusiones sobre los factores que facilitan u obstaculizan el proceso de transferencia. El analisis cuantitativo multivariante utiliza tres metodologias: regresion multiple, analisis de componentes principales y analisis cluster. Con dichas metodologias se busca analizar el posicionamiento de diversos paises en cuanto a factores que facilitan la TT; las relaciones entre dichos factores e indicadores de transferencia tecnologica; y crear grupos de paises con caracteristicas similares que podrian beneficiarse de politicas similares para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologia. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran en torno a cuatro preguntas de investigacion: .Que es la transferencia de tecnologia y como ocurre?; .Es posible medir la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?; .Que factores facilitan la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono a paises en desarrollo? y .Como se puede agrupar a los paises en desarrollo en funcion de sus necesidades politicas para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?

Recommendations on seismic actions on bridges

The paper describes the main features of a technical Recommendation first draft on Seismic Actions on Bridges, promoted by the Spanish Ministry of Public Works (MOPT). Although much more research is needed to clarify the seismic behaviour of the vast class of problems present in port structures the current state of the art allows at least a classificaton of subjects and the establishment of minimum requirements to guide the design. Also the use of more refined methods for specially dangerous situations needs some general guidelines that contribute to mantein the design under reasonable safety margins. The Recommendations of the Spanish MOPT are a first try in those directions.

Recommendations on seismic actions on port structures

The paper describes the main features of a Technical Recommendation first draft on Seismic Action on port structures promoted recently by the Spanish Ministry of Public Works (MOPT). Although much more research is needed to clarify the seismic behaviour of the vast class of problems present in port structures the current state of the art allows at least a classification of subjects and the establishment of minimum requirements to guide the design. Also the use of more refined methods for specially dangerous situations needs some general guidelines that contribute to mantein the design under reasonable safety margins. The Recommendations of the Spanish MOPT are a first try in those directions.

Effects of dietary restriction combined with different exercise programs or physical activity recommendations on blood lipids in overweight adults

Background and aim: Many exercise studies, although generally showing the beneficial effects of supervised aerobic, resistance or combined exercise on blood lipids, have sometimes reached equivocal conclusions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of different programs that combined exercise and dietary restriction on blood lipids versus a clinical practice intervention for weight loss, in overweight adults. Methods: For this study 66 subjects participated in a supervised 22 weeks training program, composed of three sessions per week and they were randomized in three groups: strength training (S; n = 19), endurance training (E; n = 25), a combination of E and S (SE; n = 22). Eighteen subjects served as physical activity group (PA) that followed a clinical intervention consisted of physical activity recommendations. All groups followed the same dietary treatment, and blood samples were obtained for lipids measurements, at the beginning and end of the study. Results: Lipid profile improved in all groups. No significant differences for baseline and post-training values were observed between groups. In general, SE and PA decreased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) values (p menor que 0.01). S decreased triglyceride levels (p menor que 0.01) and E, SE, and PA decreased total cholesterol levels (p menor que 0.05, p menor que 0.01 and p menor que 0.01, respectively). Conclusions: These results suggest that an intervention program of supervised exercise combined with diet restriction did not achieved further improvements in blood lipid profile than diet restriction and physical activity recommendations, in overweight adults. (Clinical Trials gov number: NCT01116856).

Generating context-aware recommendations using banking data in a mobile recommender system

The increasing adoption of smartphones by the society has created a new area of research in recommender systems. This new domain is based on using location and context-awareness to provide personalization. This paper describes a model to generate context-aware recommendations for mobile recommender systems using banking data in order to recommend places where the bank customers have previously spent their money. In this work we have used real data provided by a well know Spanish bank. The mobile prototype deployed in the bank Labs environment was evaluated in a survey among 100 users with good results regarding usefulness and effectiveness. The results also showed that test users had a high confidence in a recommender system based on real banking data.

Enhanced recommendations for e-learning authoring tools based on a proactive context-aware recommender

Authoring tools are powerful systems in the area of e-Learning that make easier for teachers to create new learning objects by reusing or editing existing educational resources coming from learning repositories or content providers. However, due to the overwhelming number of resources these tools can access, sometimes it is difficult for teachers to find the most suitable resources taking into account their needs in terms of content (e.g. topic) or pedagogical aspects (e.g. target level associated to their students). Recommender systems can take an important role trying to mitigate this problem. In this paper we propose a new model to generate proactive context-aware recommendations on resources during the creation process of a new learning object that a teacher carries out by using an authoring tool. The common use cases covered by the model for having recommendations in online authoring tools and details about the recommender model itself are presented.

Parallel workflows to personalize clinical guidelines recommendations: application to gestational diabetes mellitus

The MobiGuide system provides patients with personalized decision support tools, based on computerized clinical guidelines, in a mobile environment. The generic capabilities of the system will be demonstrated applied to the clinical domain of Gestational Diabetes (GD). This paper presents a methodology to identify personalized recommendations, obtained from the analysis of the GD guideline. We added a conceptual parallel part to the formalization of the GD guideline called "parallel workflow" that allows considering patient?s personal context and preferences. As a result of analysing the GD guideline and eliciting medical knowledge, we identified three different types of personalized advices (therapy, measurements and upcoming events) that will be implemented to perform patients? guiding at home, supported by the MobiGuide system. These results will be essential to determine the distribution of functionalities between mobile and server decision support capabilities.

Incorporating Group Recommendations to Recommender Systems: Alternatives and Performance

La importancia de los sistemas de recomendación ha experimentado un crecimiento exponencial como consecuencia del auge de las redes sociales. En esta tesis doctoral presentaré una amplia visión sobre el estado del arte de los sistemas de recomendación. Incialmente, estos estaba basados en fitrado demográfico, basado en contendio o colaborativo. En la actualidad, estos sistemas incorporan alguna información social al proceso de recomendación. En el futuro utilizarán información implicita, local y personal proveniente del Internet de las cosas. Los sistemas de recomendación basados en filtrado colaborativo se pueden modificar con el fin de realizar recomendaciones a grupos de usuarios. Existen trabajos previos que han incluido estas modificaciones en diferentes etapas del algoritmo de filtrado colaborativo: búsqueda de los vecinos, predicción de las votaciones y elección de las recomendaciones. En esta tesis doctoral proporcionaré un nuevo método que realizar el proceso de unficación (pasar de varios usuarios a un grupo) en el primer paso del algoritmo de filtrado colaborativo: cálculo de la métrica de similaridad. Proporcionaré una formalización completa del método propuesto. Explicaré cómo obtener el conjunto de k vecinos del grupo de usuarios y mostraré cómo obtener recomendaciones usando dichos vecinos. Asimismo, incluiré un ejemplo detallando cada paso del método propuesto en un sistema de recomendación compuesto por 8 usuarios y 10 items. Las principales características del método propuesto son: (a) es más rápido (más eficiente) que las alternativas proporcionadas por otros autores, y (b) es al menos tan exacto y preciso como otras soluciones estudiadas. Para contrastar esta hipótesis realizaré varios experimentos que miden la precisión, la exactitud y el rendimiento del método. Los resultados obtenidos se compararán con los resultados de otras alternativas utilizadas en la recomendación de grupos. Los experimentos se realizarán con las bases de datos de MovieLens y Netflix. ABSTRACT The importance of recommender systems has grown exponentially with the advent of social networks. In this PhD thesis I will provide a wide vision about the state of the art of recommender systems. They were initially based on demographic, contentbased and collaborative filtering. Currently, these systems incorporate some social information to the recommendation process. In the future, they will use implicit, local and personal information from the Internet of Things. As we will see here, recommender systems based on collaborative filtering can be used to perform recommendations to group of users. Previous works have made this modification in different stages of the collaborative filtering algorithm: establishing the neighborhood, prediction phase and determination of recommended items. In this PhD thesis I will provide a new method that carry out the unification process (many users to one group) in the first stage of the collaborative filtering algorithm: similarity metric computation. I will provide a full formalization of the proposed method. I will explain how to obtain the k nearest neighbors of the group of users and I will show how to get recommendations using those users. I will also include a running example of a recommender system with 8 users and 10 items detailing all the steps of the method I will present. The main highlights of the proposed method are: (a) it will be faster (more efficient) that the alternatives provided by other authors, and (b) it will be at least as precise and accurate as other studied solutions. To check this hypothesis I will conduct several experiments measuring the accuracy, the precision and the performance of my method. I will compare these results with the results generated by other methods of group recommendation. The experiments will be carried out using MovieLens and Netflix datasets.