Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

A dynamic, probabilistic model for city building

The problem of interdependence between housing and commuting in a city has been analysed within the framework of welfare economics. Uncertain changes overtime in the working population has been considered by means of a dynamic, probabilistic model. The characteristics of irreversibility and durability in city building have been explicitly dealt with. The ultimate objective is that the model after further development will be an auxiliary tool in city planning.

The Influence of Communication Range on Connectivity for Resilient Wireless Sensor Networks Using a Probabilistic Approach.

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) consist of thousands of nodes that need to communicate with each other. However, it is possible that some nodes are isolated from other nodes due to limited communication range. This paper focuses on the influence of communication range on the probability that all nodes are connected under two conditions, respectively: (1) all nodes have the same communication range, and (2) communication range of each node is a random variable. In the former case, this work proves that, for 0menor queepsmenor quee^(-1) , if the probability of the network being connected is 0.36eps , by means of increasing communication range by constant C(eps) , the probability of network being connected is at least 1-eps. Explicit function C(eps) is given. It turns out that, once the network is connected, it also makes the WSNs resilient against nodes failure. In the latter case, this paper proposes that the network connection probability is modeled as Cox process. The change of network connection probability with respect to distribution parameters and resilience performance is presented. Finally, a method to decide the distribution parameters of node communication range in order to satisfy a given network connection probability is developed.

Localization and Tracking in Energy-Constrained Networks with Dynamic Connectivity

Systems used for target localization, such as goods, individuals, or animals, commonly rely on operational means to meet the final application demands. However, what would happen if some means were powered up randomly by harvesting systems? And what if those devices not randomly powered had their duty cycles restricted? Under what conditions would such an operation be tolerable in localization services? What if the references provided by nodes in a tracking problem were distorted? Moreover, there is an underlying topic common to the previous questions regarding the transfer of conceptual models to reality in field tests: what challenges are faced upon deploying a localization network that integrates energy harvesting modules? The application scenario of the system studied is a traditional herding environment of semi domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Scandinavia. In these conditions, information on approximate locations of reindeer is as important as environmental preservation. Herders also need cost-effective devices capable of operating unattended in, sometimes, extreme weather conditions. The analyses developed are worthy not only for the specific application environment presented, but also because they may serve as an approach to performance of navigation systems in absence of reasonably accurate references like the ones of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A number of energy-harvesting solutions, like thermal and radio-frequency harvesting, do not commonly provide power beyond one milliwatt. When they do, battery buffers may be needed (as it happens with solar energy) which may raise costs and make systems more dependent on environmental temperatures. In general, given our problem, a harvesting system is needed that be capable of providing energy bursts of, at least, some milliwatts. Many works on localization problems assume that devices have certain capabilities to determine unknown locations based on range-based techniques or fingerprinting which cannot be assumed in the approach considered herein. The system presented is akin to range-free techniques, but goes to the extent of considering very low node densities: most range-free techniques are, therefore, not applicable. Animal localization, in particular, uses to be supported by accurate devices such as GPS collars which deplete batteries in, maximum, a few days. Such short-life solutions are not particularly desirable in the framework considered. In tracking, the challenge may times addressed aims at attaining high precision levels from complex reliable hardware and thorough processing techniques. One of the challenges in this Thesis is the use of equipment with just part of its facilities in permanent operation, which may yield high input noise levels in the form of distorted reference points. The solution presented integrates a kinetic harvesting module in some nodes which are expected to be a majority in the network. These modules are capable of providing power bursts of some milliwatts which suffice to meet node energy demands. The usage of harvesting modules in the aforementioned conditions makes the system less dependent on environmental temperatures as no batteries are used in nodes with harvesters--it may be also an advantage in economic terms. There is a second kind of nodes. They are battery powered (without kinetic energy harvesters), and are, therefore, dependent on temperature and battery replacements. In addition, their operation is constrained by duty cycles in order to extend node lifetime and, consequently, their autonomy. There is, in turn, a third type of nodes (hotspots) which can be static or mobile. They are also battery-powered, and are used to retrieve information from the network so that it is presented to users. The system operational chain starts at the kinetic-powered nodes broadcasting their own identifier. If an identifier is received at a battery-powered node, the latter stores it for its records. Later, as the recording node meets a hotspot, its full record of detections is transferred to the hotspot. Every detection registry comprises, at least, a node identifier and the position read from its GPS module by the battery-operated node previously to detection. The characteristics of the system presented make the aforementioned operation own certain particularities which are also studied. First, identifier transmissions are random as they depend on movements at kinetic modules--reindeer movements in our application. Not every movement suffices since it must overcome a certain energy threshold. Second, identifier transmissions may not be heard unless there is a battery-powered node in the surroundings. Third, battery-powered nodes do not poll continuously their GPS module, hence localization errors rise even more. Let's recall at this point that such behavior is tight to the aforementioned power saving policies to extend node lifetime. Last, some time is elapsed between the instant an identifier random transmission is detected and the moment the user is aware of such a detection: it takes some time to find a hotspot. Tracking is posed as a problem of a single kinetically-powered target and a population of battery-operated nodes with higher densities than before in localization. Since the latter provide their approximate positions as reference locations, the study is again focused on assessing the impact of such distorted references on performance. Unlike in localization, distance-estimation capabilities based on signal parameters are assumed in this problem. Three variants of the Kalman filter family are applied in this context: the regular Kalman filter, the alpha-beta filter, and the unscented Kalman filter. The study enclosed hereafter comprises both field tests and simulations. Field tests were used mainly to assess the challenges related to power supply and operation in extreme conditions as well as to model nodes and some aspects of their operation in the application scenario. These models are the basics of the simulations developed later. The overall system performance is analyzed according to three metrics: number of detections per kinetic node, accuracy, and latency. The links between these metrics and the operational conditions are also discussed and characterized statistically. Subsequently, such statistical characterization is used to forecast performance figures given specific operational parameters. In tracking, also studied via simulations, nonlinear relationships are found between accuracy and duty cycles and cluster sizes of battery-operated nodes. The solution presented may be more complex in terms of network structure than existing solutions based on GPS collars. However, its main gain lies on taking advantage of users' error tolerance to reduce costs and become more environmentally friendly by diminishing the potential amount of batteries that can be lost. Whether it is applicable or not depends ultimately on the conditions and requirements imposed by users' needs and operational environments, which is, as it has been explained, one of the topics of this Thesis.

A novel topology control approach to maintain the node degree in dynamic wireless sensor networks

Topology control is an important technique to improve the connectivity and the reliability of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) by means of adjusting the communication range of wireless sensor nodes. In this paper, a novel Fuzzy-logic Topology Control (FTC) is proposed to achieve any desired average node degree by adaptively changing communication range, thus improving the network connectivity, which is the main target of FTC. FTC is a fully localized control algorithm, and does not rely on location information of neighbors. Instead of designing membership functions and if-then rules for fuzzy-logic controller, FTC is constructed from the training data set to facilitate the design process. FTC is proved to be accurate, stable and has short settling time. In order to compare it with other representative localized algorithms (NONE, FLSS, k-Neighbor and LTRT), FTC is evaluated through extensive simulations. The simulation results show that: firstly, similar to k-Neighbor algorithm, FTC is the best to achieve the desired average node degree as node density varies; secondly, FTC is comparable to FLSS and k-Neighbor in terms of energy-efficiency, but is better than LTRT and NONE; thirdly, FTC has the lowest average maximum communication range than other algorithms, which indicates that the most energy-consuming node in the network consumes the lowest power.

Quantifying dispersal paths in probabilistic habitat networks: a reply to hock and mumby (2015) and an overview of recent developments and applications

Hock and Mumby (2015) describe an approach to quantify dispersal probabilities along paths in networks of habitat patches. This approach basically consists in determining the most probable (most reliable) path for movement between habitat patches by calculating the product of the dispersal probabilities in each link (step) along the paths in the network. Although the paper by Hock and Mumby (2015) has value and includes interesting analyses (see comments in section 7 below), the approach they describe is not new.

Dynamic Model-based Management of Service-Oriented Infrastructure.

Models are an effective tool for systems and software design. They allow software architects to abstract from the non-relevant details. Those qualities are also useful for the technical management of networks, systems and software, such as those that compose service oriented architectures. Models can provide a set of well-defined abstractions over the distributed heterogeneous service infrastructure that enable its automated management. We propose to use the managed system as a source of dynamically generated runtime models, and decompose management processes into a composition of model transformations. We have created an autonomic service deployment and configuration architecture that obtains, analyzes, and transforms system models to apply the required actions, while being oblivious to the low-level details. An instrumentation layer automatically builds these models and interprets the planned management actions to the system. We illustrate these concepts with a distributed service update operation.

A Light-Weight On-Chip Monitoring Network for Dynamic Adaptation and Calibration

Current nanometer technologies suffer within-die parameter uncertainties, varying workload conditions, aging, and temperature effects that cause a serious reduction on yield and performance. In this scenario, monitoring, calibration, and dynamic adaptation become essential, demanding systems with a collection of multi purpose monitors and exposing the need for light-weight monitoring networks. This paper presents a new monitoring network paradigm able to perform an early prioritization of the information. This is achieved by the introduction of a new hierarchy level, the threshing level. Targeting it, we propose a time-domain signaling scheme over a single-wire that minimizes the network switching activity as well as the routing requirements. To validate our approach, we make a thorough analysis of the architectural trade-offs and expose two complete monitoring systems that suppose an area improvement of 40% and a power reduction of three orders of magnitude compared to previous works.

Ensemble transcript interaction networks: A case study on Alzheimer's disease

Systems biology techniques are a topic of recent interest within the neurological field. Computational intelligence (CI) addresses this holistic perspective by means of consensus or ensemble techniques ultimately capable of uncovering new and relevant findings. In this paper, we propose the application of a CI approach based on ensemble Bayesian network classifiers and multivariate feature subset selection to induce probabilistic dependences that could match or unveil biological relationships. The research focuses on the analysis of high-throughput Alzheimer's disease (AD) transcript profiling. The analysis is conducted from two perspectives. First, we compare the expression profiles of hippocampus subregion entorhinal cortex (EC) samples of AD patients and controls. Second, we use the ensemble approach to study four types of samples: EC and dentate gyrus (DG) samples from both patients and controls. Results disclose transcript interaction networks with remarkable structures and genes not directly related to AD by previous studies. The ensemble is able to identify a variety of transcripts that play key roles in other neurological pathologies. Classical statistical assessment by means of non-parametric tests confirms the relevance of the majority of the transcripts. The ensemble approach pinpoints key metabolic mechanisms that could lead to new findings in the pathogenesis and development of AD

Generating multimedia presentations that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems using a model-based approach

This article describes a knowledge-based method for generating multimedia descriptions that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems. We designed this method for users who monitor the behavior of a dynamic system with the help of sensor networks and make decisions according to prefixed management goals. Our method generates presentations using different modes such as text in natural language, 2D graphics and 3D animations. The method uses a qualitative representation of the dynamic system based on hierarchies of components and causal influences. The method includes an abstraction generator that uses the system representation to find and aggregate relevant data at an appropriate level of abstraction. In addition, the method includes a hierarchical planner to generate a presentation using a model with dis- course patterns. Our method provides an efficient and flexible solution to generate concise and adapted multimedia presentations that summarize thousands of time series. It is general to be adapted to differ- ent dynamic systems with acceptable knowledge acquisition effort by reusing and adapting intuitive rep- resentations. We validated our method and evaluated its practical utility by developing several models for an application that worked in continuous real time operation for more than 1 year, summarizing sen- sor data of a national hydrologic information system in Spain.

Hydrologic models for emergency decision support using Bayesian networks

In the presence of a river flood, operators in charge of control must take decisions based on imperfect and incomplete sources of information (e.g., data provided by a limited number sensors) and partial knowledge about the structure and behavior of the river basin. This is a case of reasoning about a complex dynamic system with uncertainty and real-time constraints where bayesian networks can be used to provide an effective support. In this paper we describe a solution with spatio-temporal bayesian networks to be used in a context of emergencies produced by river floods. In the paper we describe first a set of types of causal relations for hydrologic processes with spatial and temporal references to represent the dynamics of the river basin. Then we describe how this was included in a computer system called SAIDA to provide assistance to operators in charge of control in a river basin. Finally the paper shows experimental results about the performance of the model.

Using modular neural networks to model self-consciousness and self-representation for artificial entities

Self-consciousness implies not only self or group recognition, but also real knowledge of one’s own identity. Self-consciousness is only possible if an individual is intelligent enough to formulate an abstract self-representation. Moreover, it necessarily entails the capability of referencing and using this elf-representation in connection with other cognitive features, such as inference, and the anticipation of the consequences of both one’s own and other individuals’ acts. In this paper, a cognitive architecture for self-consciousness is proposed. This cognitive architecture includes several modules: abstraction, self-representation, other individuals'representation, decision and action modules. It includes a learning process of self-representation by direct (self-experience based) and observational learning (based on the observation of other individuals). For model implementation a new approach is taken using Modular Artificial Neural Networks (MANN). For model testing, a virtual environment has been implemented. This virtual environment can be described as a holonic system or holarchy, meaning that it is composed of autonomous entities that behave both as a whole and as part of a greater whole. The system is composed of a certain number of holons interacting. These holons are equipped with cognitive features, such as sensory perception, and a simplified model of personality and self-representation. We explain holons’ cognitive architecture that enables dynamic self-representation. We analyse the effect of holon interaction, focusing on the evolution of the holon’s abstract self-representation. Finally, the results are explained and analysed and conclusions drawn.

Floating car data augmentation based on infrastructure sensors and neural networks

The development of new-generation intelligent vehicle technologies will lead to a better level of road safety and CO2 emission reductions. However, the weak point of all these systems is their need for comprehensive and reliable data. For traffic data acquisition, two sources are currently available: 1) infrastructure sensors and 2) floating vehicles. The former consists of a set of fixed point detectors installed in the roads, and the latter consists of the use of mobile probe vehicles as mobile sensors. However, both systems still have some deficiencies. The infrastructure sensors retrieve information fromstatic points of the road, which are spaced, in some cases, kilometers apart. This means that the picture of the actual traffic situation is not a real one. This deficiency is corrected by floating cars, which retrieve dynamic information on the traffic situation. Unfortunately, the number of floating data vehicles currently available is too small and insufficient to give a complete picture of the road traffic. In this paper, we present a floating car data (FCD) augmentation system that combines information fromfloating data vehicles and infrastructure sensors, and that, by using neural networks, is capable of incrementing the amount of FCD with virtual information. This system has been implemented and tested on actual roads, and the results show little difference between the data supplied by the floating vehicles and the virtual vehicles.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Expert System using Artificial Neural Networks

The design of a modern aircraft is based on three pillars: theoretical results, experimental test and computational simulations. As a results of this, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solvers are widely used in the aeronautical field. These solvers require the correct selection of many parameters in order to obtain successful results. Besides, the computational time spent in the simulation depends on the proper choice of these parameters. In this paper we create an expert system capable of making an accurate prediction of the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) solver. Artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to design the expert system. It is shown that the developed expert system is capable of making an accurate prediction the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a CFD solver.

Runtime variability for dynamic reconfiguration in wireless sensor network product lines

Runtime variability is a key technique for the success of Dynamic Software Product Lines (DSPLs), as certain application demand reconfiguration of system features and execution plans at runtime. In this emerging research work we address the problem of dynamic changes in feature models in sensor networks product families, where nodes of the network demand dynamic reconfiguration at post-deployment time.