Modelos Estadísticos Dinámicos para Análisis de Evolución de Tasas de Accidentes: Metodología y Herramientas Computacionales

Los accidentes del tráfico son un fenómeno social muy relevantes y una de las principales causas de mortalidad en los países desarrollados. Para entender este fenómeno complejo se aplican modelos econométricos sofisticados tanto en la literatura académica como por las administraciones públicas. Esta tesis está dedicada al análisis de modelos macroscópicos para los accidentes del tráfico en España. El objetivo de esta tesis se puede dividir en dos bloques: a. Obtener una mejor comprensión del fenómeno de accidentes de trafico mediante la aplicación y comparación de dos modelos macroscópicos utilizados frecuentemente en este área: DRAG y UCM, con la aplicación a los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en España durante el período 2000-2009. Los análisis se llevaron a cabo con enfoque frecuencista y mediante los programas TRIO, SAS y TRAMO/SEATS. b. La aplicación de modelos y la selección de las variables más relevantes, son temas actuales de investigación y en esta tesis se ha desarrollado y aplicado una metodología que pretende mejorar, mediante herramientas teóricas y prácticas, el entendimiento de selección y comparación de los modelos macroscópicos. Se han desarrollado metodologías tanto para selección como para comparación de modelos. La metodología de selección de modelos se ha aplicado a los accidentes mortales ocurridos en la red viaria en el período 2000-2011, y la propuesta metodológica de comparación de modelos macroscópicos se ha aplicado a la frecuencia y la severidad de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en el período 2000-2009. Como resultado de los desarrollos anteriores se resaltan las siguientes contribuciones: a. Profundización de los modelos a través de interpretación de las variables respuesta y poder de predicción de los modelos. El conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas se ha ampliado en este proceso. bl. Desarrollo de una metodología para selección de variables relevantes para la explicación de la ocurrencia de accidentes de tráfico. Teniendo en cuenta los resultados de a) la propuesta metodológica se basa en los modelos DRAG, cuyos parámetros se han estimado con enfoque bayesiano y se han aplicado a los datos de accidentes mortales entre los años 2000-2011 en España. Esta metodología novedosa y original se ha comparado con modelos de regresión dinámica (DR), que son los modelos más comunes para el trabajo con procesos estocásticos. Los resultados son comparables, y con la nueva propuesta se realiza una aportación metodológica que optimiza el proceso de selección de modelos, con escaso coste computacional. b2. En la tesis se ha diseñado una metodología de comparación teórica entre los modelos competidores mediante la aplicación conjunta de simulación Monte Cario, diseño de experimentos y análisis de la varianza ANOVA. Los modelos competidores tienen diferentes estructuras, que afectan a la estimación de efectos de las variables explicativas. Teniendo en cuenta el estudio desarrollado en bl) este desarrollo tiene el propósito de determinar como interpretar la componente de tendencia estocástica que un modelo UCM modela explícitamente, a través de un modelo DRAG, que no tiene un método específico para modelar este elemento. Los resultados de este estudio son importantes para ver si la serie necesita ser diferenciada antes de modelar. b3. Se han desarrollado nuevos algoritmos para realizar los ejercicios metodológicos, implementados en diferentes programas como R, WinBUGS, y MATLAB. El cumplimiento de los objetivos de la tesis a través de los desarrollos antes enunciados se remarcan en las siguientes conclusiones: 1. El fenómeno de accidentes del tráfico se ha analizado mediante dos modelos macroscópicos. Los efectos de los factores de influencia son diferentes dependiendo de la metodología aplicada. Los resultados de predicción son similares aunque con ligera superioridad de la metodología DRAG. 2. La metodología para selección de variables y modelos proporciona resultados prácticos en cuanto a la explicación de los accidentes de tráfico. La predicción y la interpretación también se han mejorado mediante esta nueva metodología. 3. Se ha implementado una metodología para profundizar en el conocimiento de la relación entre las estimaciones de los efectos de dos modelos competidores como DRAG y UCM. Un aspecto muy importante en este tema es la interpretación de la tendencia mediante dos modelos diferentes de la que se ha obtenido información muy útil para los investigadores en el campo del modelado. Los resultados han proporcionado una ampliación satisfactoria del conocimiento en torno al proceso de modelado y comprensión de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas y accidentes mortales totales en España. ABSTRACT Road accidents are a very relevant social phenomenon and one of the main causes of death in industrialized countries. Sophisticated econometric models are applied in academic work and by the administrations for a better understanding of this very complex phenomenon. This thesis is thus devoted to the analysis of macro models for road accidents with application to the Spanish case. The objectives of the thesis may be divided in two blocks: a. To achieve a better understanding of the road accident phenomenon by means of the application and comparison of two of the most frequently used macro modelings: DRAG (demand for road use, accidents and their gravity) and UCM (unobserved components model); the application was made to van involved accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2009. The analysis has been carried out within the frequentist framework and using available state of the art software, TRIO, SAS and TRAMO/SEATS. b. Concern on the application of the models and on the relevant input variables to be included in the model has driven the research to try to improve, by theoretical and practical means, the understanding on methodological choice and model selection procedures. The theoretical developments have been applied to fatal accidents during the period 2000-2011 and van-involved road accidents in 2000-2009. This has resulted in the following contributions: a. Insight on the models has been gained through interpretation of the effect of the input variables on the response and prediction accuracy of both models. The behavior of van-involved road accidents has been explained during this process. b1. Development of an input variable selection procedure, which is crucial for an efficient choice of the inputs. Following the results of a) the procedure uses the DRAG-like model. The estimation is carried out within the Bayesian framework. The procedure has been applied for the total road accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2011. The results of the model selection procedure are compared and validated through a dynamic regression model given that the original data has a stochastic trend. b2. A methodology for theoretical comparison between the two models through Monte Carlo simulation, computer experiment design and ANOVA. The models have a different structure and this affects the estimation of the effects of the input variables. The comparison is thus carried out in terms of the effect of the input variables on the response, which is in general different, and should be related. Considering the results of the study carried out in b1) this study tries to find out how a stochastic time trend will be captured in DRAG model, since there is no specific trend component in DRAG. Given the results of b1) the findings of this study are crucial in order to see if the estimation of data with stochastic component through DRAG will be valid or whether the data need a certain adjustment (typically differencing) prior to the estimation. The model comparison methodology was applied to the UCM and DRAG models, considering that, as mentioned above, the UCM has a specific trend term while DRAG does not. b3. New algorithms were developed for carrying out the methodological exercises. For this purpose different softwares, R, WinBUGs and MATLAB were used. These objectives and contributions have been resulted in the following findings: 1. The road accident phenomenon has been analyzed by means of two macro models: The effects of the influential input variables may be estimated through the models, but it has been observed that the estimates vary from one model to the other, although prediction accuracy is similar, with a slight superiority of the DRAG methodology. 2. The variable selection methodology provides very practical results, as far as the explanation of road accidents is concerned. Prediction accuracy and interpretability have been improved by means of a more efficient input variable and model selection procedure. 3. Insight has been gained on the relationship between the estimates of the effects using the two models. A very relevant issue here is the role of trend in both models, relevant recommendations for the analyst have resulted from here. The results have provided a very satisfactory insight into both modeling aspects and the understanding of both van-involved and total fatal accidents behavior in Spain.

The interurban DRAG-Spain model: the main factors of influence on road accidents in Spain

This paper presents the results of applying DRAG methodology to the identification of the main factors of influence on the number of injury and fatal accidents occurring on Spain’s interurban network. Nineteen independent variables have been included in the model grouped together under ten categories: exposure, infrastructure, weather, drivers, economic variables, vehicle stock, surveillance, speed and legislative measures. Highly interesting conclusions can be reached from the results on the basis of the different effects of a single variable on each of the accident types according to severity. The greatest influence revealed by the results is exposure, which together with inexperienced drivers, speed and an ageing vehicle stock, have a negative effect, while the increased surveillance on roads, the improvement in the technological features of vehicles and the proportion of high capacity networks have a positive effect, since the results obtained show a significant drop in accidents.

Orbital debris mitigation through deorbiting with passive electrodynamic drag

The increase of orbital debris and the consequent proliferation of smaller objects through fragmentation are driving the need for mitigation strategies. The issue is how to deorbit the satellite with an efficient system that does not impair drastically the propellant budget of the satellite and, consequently, reduces its operating life. We have been investigating, in the framework of a European-Community-funded project, a passive system that makes use of an electrodynamics tether to deorbit a satellite through Lorentz forces. The deorbiting system will be carried by the satellite itself at launch and deployed from the satellite at the end of its life. From that moment onward the system operates passively without requiring any intervention from the satellite itself. The paper summarizes the results of the analysis carried out to show the deorbiting performance of the system starting from different orbital altitudes and inclinations for a reference satellite mass. Results can be easily scaled to other satellite masses. The results have been obtained by using a high-fidelity computer model that uses the latest environmental routines for magnetic field, ionospheric density, atmospheric density and a gravity field model. The tether dynamics is modelled by considering all the main aspects of a real system as the tether flexibility and its temperature-dependent electrical conductivity. Temperature variations are computed by including all the major external and internal input fluxes and the thermal flux emitted from the tether. The results shows that a relatively compact and light system can carry out the complete deorbit of a relatively large satellite in a time ranging from a month to less than a year starting from high LEO with the best performance occurring at low orbital inclinations.

On the charged particle drag acting on LAGEOS

A recent study by the authors points to Charged Particle Drag (CPD) as a contributor to revisit in the LAGEOS non-gravitational perturbations problem. Such perturbations must account for dynamical contributions in the order of pms−2 . The simulated effect takes into account: (i) spatial and temporal variations of the plasmatic parameters (temperature and concentration of the species), (ii) spacecraft potential variations caused by both the eclipse passages and variations in the parameters mentioned above, and (iii) solar and geomagnetic conditions. Furthermore, recent theoretical improvements concerning scattering drag overcome previous limitations allowing for a complete formulation of this effect. For each satellite the lifetime CPD instantaneous acceleration is computed. The plasmatic parameters have been obtained fromthe Sheffield Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere (SCTIP) semi-empirical model (up to the polar region), as well as alytical/empirical approximations based on spacecraft measurements for the auroral and polar regions. Results show that maximum amplitudes for LAGEOSI are larger than those for LAGEOS-II: −85 pms−2 and −70 pms−2 respectively. This is due to the almost (magnetically) polar orbit configuration of the first, producing larger combinations of plasmatic parameter values. High solar activity has a huge impact in the resulting LAGEOS accelerations: it yields a perfect modulation of the resulting acceleration with maximum amplitudes up to a factor of 10 when comparing low and high activity periods. On the other hand, the impact of the geomagnetic activity results into a reduction of the effect itself, probably due to a decrease in the hydrogen concentration for high energy input periods. The acceleration results will be used in a refined orbit computation in a subsequent investigation.

Spherical collectors versus bare tethers for drag, thrust, and power generation

Performances of ED-tethers using either spherical collectors or bare tethers for drag, thrust, or power generation, are compared. The standard Parker-Murphy model of current to a full sphere, with neither space-charge nor plasmamotion effects considered, but modified to best fit TSS1R results, is used (the Lam, Al'pert/Gurevich space-charge limited model will be used elsewhere) In the analysis, the spherical collector is assumed to collect current well beyond its random-current value (thick-heath). Both average current in the bare-tether and current to the sphere are normalized with the short-circuit current in the absence of applied power, allowing a comparison of performances for all three applications in terms of characteristic dimensionless numbers. The sphere is always substantially outperformed by the bare-tether if ohmic effects are weak, though its performance improves as such effects increase.

Multi-fluid Eulerian model of an electrospray in a host gas.

An Eulerian multifluid model is used to describe the evolution of an electrospray plume and the flow induced in the surrounding gas by the drag of the electrically charged spray droplets in the space between an injection electrode containing the electrospray source and a collector electrode. The spray is driven by the voltage applied between the two electrodes. Numerical computations and order-of-magnitude estimates for a quiescent gas show that the droplets begin to fly back toward the injection electrode at a certain critical value of the flux of droplets in the spray, which depends very much on the electrical conditions at the injection electrode. As the flux is increased toward its critical value, the electric field induced by the charge of the droplets partially balances the field due to the applied voltage in the vicinity of the injection electrode, leading to a spray that rapidly broadens at a distance from its origin of the order of the stopping distance at which the droplets lose their initial momentum and the effect of their inertia becomes negligible. The axial component of the electric field first changes sign in this region, causing the fly back. The flow induced in the gas significantly changes this picture in the conditions of typical experiments. A gas plume is induced by the drag of the droplets whose entrainment makes the radius of the spray away from the injection electrode smaller than in a quiescent gas, and convects the droplets across the region of negative axial electric field that appears around the origin of the spray when the flux of droplets is increased. This suppresses fly back and allows much higher fluxes to be reached than are possible in a quiescent gas. The limit of large droplet-to-gas mass ratio is discussed. Migration of satellite droplets to the shroud of the spray is reproduced by the Eulerian model, but this process is also affected by the motion of the gas. The gas flow preferentially pushes satellite droplets from the shroud to the core of the spray when the effect of the inertia of the droplets becomes negligible, and thus opposes the well-established electrostatic/inertial mechanism of segregation and may end up concentrating satellite droplets in an intermediate radial region of the spray.

Model of the aerodynamic behavior of a pararotor

Asimple semi-empirical model for the aerodynamic behavior of a low-aspect ratio pararotor in autorotation at low Reynolds numbers is presented. The paper is split into three sections: Sec. II deals with the theoretical model derivation, Sec. III deals with the wind-tunnel measurements needed for tuning the theoretical model, and Sec. IV deals with the tuning between the theoretical model and the experimental data. The study is focused on the effect of both the blade pitch angle and the blade roughness and also on the stream velocity, on the rotation velocity, and on the drag of a model. Flow pattern visualizations have also been performed. The value of the free aerodynamic parameters of the semi-empirical model that produces the best fit with the experimental results agrees with the expected ones for the blades at the test conditions. Finally, the model is able to describe the behavior of a pararotor in autorotation that rotates fixed to a shaft, validated for a range of blade pitch angles. The movement of the device is found to be governed by a reduced set of dimensionless parameters.