Optimal safety incentives in road concession contracts

Changes in the roles of the government and the private sector in the provision of public services along with budget constraints are resulting in an increasing use of the concession approach for financing and managing roads. In the last few years, many of these contracts set up incentives linked to bonuses to encourage the concessionaire to render a better service to the users. Road safety is one the aspects on the basis of which concessionaires can be rewarded according to their performance. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether road safety incentives are being defined in the right way nowadays in different European countries and also identify what incentives would need to be implemented to achieve a socially optimal road safety level. To that end, we develop a specific incentive for road concession contracts that encourages companies to achieve the optimal level. We apply this methodology to three case studies of concessions recently awarded in order to determine to what extend the incentives they set up are closer or farther to the optimum.

Automatic Inference of Determinacy and Mutual Exclusion for Logic Programs Using Mode and Type Analyses

We propose an analysis for detecting procedures and goals that are deterministic (i.e., that produce at most one solution at most once),or predicates whose clause tests are mutually exclusive (which implies that at most one of their clauses will succeed) even if they are not deterministic. The analysis takes advantage of the pruning operator in order to improve the detection of mutual exclusion and determinacy. It also supports arithmetic equations and disequations, as well as equations and disequations on terms,for which we give a complete satisfiability testing algorithm, w.r.t. available type information. Information about determinacy can be used for program debugging and optimization, resource consumption and granularity control, abstraction carrying code, etc. We have implemented the analysis and integrated it in the CiaoPP system, which also infers automatically the mode and type information that our analysis takes as input. Experiments performed on this implementation show that the analysis is fairly accurate and efficient.

Automated attribute inference in complex service workflows based on sharing analysis

The properties of data and activities in business processes can be used to greatly facilítate several relevant tasks performed at design- and run-time, such as fragmentation, compliance checking, or top-down design. Business processes are often described using workflows. We present an approach for mechanically inferring business domain-specific attributes of workflow components (including data Ítems, activities, and elements of sub-workflows), taking as starting point known attributes of workflow inputs and the structure of the workflow. We achieve this by modeling these components as concepts and applying sharing analysis to a Horn clause-based representation of the workflow. The analysis is applicable to workflows featuring complex control and data dependencies, embedded control constructs, such as loops and branches, and embedded component services.

Annotation algorithms for unrestricted independent and-parallelism in logic programs

We present two new algorithms which perform automatic parallelization via source-to-source transformations. The objective is to exploit goal-level, unrestricted independent and-parallelism. The proposed algorithms use as targets new parallel execution primitives which are simpler and more flexible than the well-known &/2 parallel operator. This makes it possible to genérate better parallel expressions by exposing more potential parallelism among the literals of a clause than is possible with &/2. The difference between the two algorithms stems from whether the order of the solutions obtained is preserved or not. We also report on a preliminary evaluation of an implementation of our approach. We compare the performance obtained to that of previous annotation algorithms and show that relevant improvements can be obtained.

Determinacy analysis for logic programs using mode and type information

We propose an analysis for detecting procedures and goals that are deterministic (i.e. that produce at most one solution), or predicates whose clause tests are mutually exclusive (which implies that at most one of their clauses will succeed) even if they are not deterministic (because they cali other predicates that can produce more than one solution). Applications of such determinacy information include detecting programming errors, performing certain high-level program transformations for improving search efñciency, optimizing low level code generation and parallel execution, and estimating tighter upper bounds on the computational costs of goals and data sizes, which can be used for program debugging, resource consumption and granularity control, etc. We have implemented the analysis and integrated it in the CiaoPP system, which also infers automatically the mode and type information that our analysis takes as input. Experiments performed on this implementation show that the analysis is fairly accurate and efncient.

The CDG, UDG, and MEL methods for automatic compile-time parallelization of logic programs for independent and-parallelism

There has been significant interest in parallel execution models for logic programs which exploit Independent And-Parallelism (IAP). In these models, it is necessary to determine which goals are independent and therefore eligible for parallel execution and which goals have to wait for which others during execution. Although this can be done at run-time, it can imply a very heavy overhead. In this paper, we present three algorithms for automatic compiletime parallelization of logic programs using IAP. This is done by converting a clause into a graph-based computational form and then transforming this graph into linear expressions based on &-Prolog, a language for IAP. We also present an algorithm which, given a clause, determines if there is any loss of parallelism due to linearization, for the case in which only unconditional parallelism is desired. Finally, the performance of these annotation algorithms is discussed for some benchmark programs.

Towards structured state threading in prolog

It is very often the case that programs require passing, maintaining, and updating some notion of state. Prolog programs often implement such stateful computations by carrying this state in predicate arguments (or, alternatively, in the internal datábase). This often causes code obfuscation, complicates code reuse, introduces dependencies on the data model, and is prone to incorrect propagation of the state information among predicate calis. To partly solve these problems, we introduce contexts as a consistent mechanism for specifying implicit arguments and its threading in clause goals. We propose a notation and an interpretation for contexts, ranging from single goals to complete programs, give an intuitive semantics, and describe a translation into standard Prolog. We also discuss a particular light-weight implementation in Ciao Prolog, and we show the usefulness of our proposals on a series of examples and applications, including code directiy using contexts, DCGs, extended DCGs, logical loops and other custom control structures.

Automatic unrestricted independent and-parallelism in logic programs

We present new algorithms which perform automatic parallelization via source-to-source transformations. The objective is to exploit goal-level, unrestricted independent andparallelism. The proposed algorithms use as targets new parallel execution primitives which are simpler and more flexible than the well-known &/2 parallel operator, which makes it possible to generate better parallel expressions by exposing more potential parallelism among the literals of a clause than is possible with &/2. The main differences between the algorithms stem from whether the order of the solutions obtained is preserved or not, and on the use of determinacy information. We briefly describe the environment where the algorithms have been implemented and the runtime platform in which the parallelized programs are executed. We also report on an evaluation of an implementation of our approach. We compare the performance obtained to that of previous annotation algorithms and show that relevant improvements can be obtained.

Inferring determinacy and mutual exclusion in logic programs using mode and type analysis.

We propose an analysis for detecting procedures and goals that are deterministic (i.e., that produce at most one solution at most once), or predicates whose clause tests are mutually exclusive (which implies that at most one of their clauses will succeed) even if they are not deterministic. The analysis takes advantage of the pruning operator in order to improve the detection of mutual exclusion and determinacy. It also supports arithmetic equations and disequations, as well as equations and disequations on terms, for which we give a complete satisfiability testing algorithm, w.r.t. available type information. We have implemented the analysis and integrated it in the CiaoPP system, which also infers automatically the mode and type information that our analysis takes as input. Experiments performed on this implementation show that the analysis is fairly accurate and efficient.

Impact of the Economic Recession on Toll Highway Concessions in Spain

After joining the European Union in 1986, Spain experienced steady economic growth that enabled the country to grow at a greater pace than other European countries. During this period, the government of Spain opted for major investments in public infrastructure by taking advantage both of the funding provided by the European Union and of several types of public-private-partnership (PPP) approaches. Within this framework, the government of Spain between 1996 and 2004 procured a series of toll highway concessions. These concessions entered into operation a few years before the global economic recession made itself felt in Spain. The concession contracts signed between the government and some private consortia allocated most of the risks (expropriation, construction, and traffic) to the private sector. In this paper the impact that the economic recession has had on the business performance of the concessionaires is assessed, and the effectiveness of the measures adopted by the government to help the concessionaire to avoid bankruptcy is analyzed. It was found that some of the guarantees offered by the legal framework to the concessionaires in case of bankruptcy are prompting an outcome that could negatively affect the users. In addition to that, some suggestions as to how to better allocate risk in toll highway concessions in the future are provided.

Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Metodología para maximizar la rentabilidad de una terminal marítima de contenedores a través de la optimización de su grado de automatización

Son generalmente aceptadas las tendencias actuales de maximización de la automatización para la adaptación de las terminales marítimas de contenedores a las cada vez mayores exigencias competitivas del negocio de transporte de contenedores. En esta investigación, se somete a consideración dichas tendencias a través de un análisis que tenga en cuenta la realidad global de la terminal pero también su propia realidad local que le permita aprovechar sus fortalezas y minimizar sus debilidades en un mercado continuamente en crecimiento y cambio. Para lo cual se ha desarrollado un modelo de análisis en el que se tengan en cuenta los parámetros técnicos, operativos, económicos y financieros que influyen en el diseño de una terminal marítima de contenedores, desde su concepción como ente dependiente para generar negocio, todos ellos dentro de un perímetro definido por el mercado del tráfico de contenedores así como las limitaciones físicas introducidas por la propia terminal. Para la obtención de dicho modelo ha sido necesario llevar a cabo un proceso de estudio del contexto actual del tráfico de contenedores y su relación con el diseño de las terminales marítimas, así como de las metodologías propuestas hasta ahora por los diferentes autores para abordar el proceso de dimensionamiento y diseño de la terminal. Una vez definido el modelo que ha de servir de base para el diseño de una terminal marítima de contenedores desde un planteamiento multicriterio, se analiza la influencia de las diversas variables explicativas de dicho modelo y se cuantifica su impacto en los resultados económicos, financieros y operativos de la terminal. Un paso siguiente consiste en definir un modelo simplificado que vincule la rentabilidad de una concesión de terminal con el tráfico esperado en función del grado de automatización y del tipo de terminal. Esta investigación es el fruto del objetivo ambicioso de aportar una metodología que defina la opción óptima de diseño de una terminal marítima de contenedores apoyada en los pilares de la optimización del grado de automatización y de la maximización de la rentabilidad del negocio que en ella se desarrolla. It is generally accepted current trends in automation to maximize the adaptation of maritime container terminals to the growing competitive demands of the business of container shipping. In this research, is submitted to these trends through an analysis taking into account the global reality of the terminal but also their own local reality it could exploit its strengths and minimize their weaknesses in a market continuously growing and changing. For which we have developed a model analysis that takes into account the technical, operational, financial and economic influence in the design of a container shipping terminal, from its conception as being dependent to generate business, all within a perimeter defined by the market of container traffic and the physical constraints introduced by the terminal. To obtain this model has been necessary to conduct a study process in the current context of container traffic and its relation to the design of marine terminals, as well as the methodologies proposed so far by different authors to address the process sizing and design of the terminal. Having defined the model that will serve as the basis for the design for a container shipping terminal from a multi-criteria approach, we analyze the influence of various explanatory variables of the model and quantify their impact on economic performance, financial and operational of the terminal. A next step is to define a simplified model that links the profitability of a terminal concession with traffic expected on the basis of the degree of automation and the kind of terminal. This research is the result of the ambitious target of providing a methodology to define the optimal choice of designing a container shipping terminal on the pillars of automation optimizing and maximizing the profitability of the business that it develops.

Infrastructure Finance in Developing Countries by State and Multilateral Development Banks

Infrastructure concession is an alternative widely used by governments to increase investment. In the case of the road sector, the main characteristics of the concessions are: long-term projects, high investments in the early years of the contract and high risks. A viability analysis must be carried out for each concession and consider the characteristics of the project. When the infrastructure is located in a developing country, political and market growth uncertainties should be add in the concession project analysis, as well as economic instability, because they present greater risks. This paper is an analysis of state bank participation in road infrastructure finance in developing countries. For this purpose, we studied road infrastructure financing and its associated risks, and also the features of developing countries. Furthermore, we considered the issue of state banks and multilateral development banks that perform an important role by offering better credit lines than the private banks, in terms of cost, interest and grace period. Based on this study, we analyzed the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES – and their credit supply to road infrastructure concessions. The results show that BNDES is the main financing agent for long-term investment in the sector, offering loans with low interest rates in Brazilian currency. From this research we argue that a single state bank should not alone support the increasing demand for finance in Brazil. Therefore, we conclude that there is a need to expand the supply of credit in Brazil, by strengthening private banks in the long-term lending market.

Unit Root Analysis of Traffic Time Series in Toll Highways

Concession contracts in highways often include some kind of clauses (for example, a minimum traffic guarantee) that allow for better management of the business risks. The value of these clauses may be important and should be added to the total value of the concession. However, in these cases, traditional valuation techniques, like the NPV (net present value) of the project, are insufficient. An alternative methodology for the valuation of highway concession is one based on the real options approach. This methodology is generally built on the assumption of the evolution of traffic volume as a GBM (geometric Brownian motion), which is the hypothesis analyzed in this paper. First, a description of the methodology used for the analysis of the existence of unit roots (i.e., the hypothesis of non-stationarity) is provided. The Dickey-Fuller approach has been used, which is the most common test for this kind of analysis. Then this methodology is applied to perform a statistical analysis of traffic series in Spanish toll highways. For this purpose, data on the AADT (annual average daily traffic) on a set of highways have been used. The period of analysis is around thirty years in most cases. The main outcome of the research is that the hypothesis that traffic volume follows a GBM process in Spanish toll highways cannot be rejected. This result is robust, and therefore it can be used as a starting point for the application of the real options theory to assess toll highway concessions.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.